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steinrokkan posted:The pathetic charade with Russians being / not being allowed to participate on a glorified honour system was the final nail in the coffin of whatever little dignity the Olympics might have had left before that Wait, it had any dignity left?
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Feb 11, 2022 21:03
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https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1492227812501209088?s=21
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Feb 11, 2022 21:05
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That's a high number...to be clear that's the military reserve, right? edit: Yup appears so. I shoulda just googled, sorry.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:13
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Sinteres posted:Russia needs an economic relationship with China since the West isn't a viable option anymore, so bending to Chinese wishes to some extent makes sense. It just depends on how serious this is to China, and how clear they've made that to Russia. You know, if Russia wants to invade in the first place. If people want to read more on the Russian economic relationship with China this is a good paper: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/briefing-papers/russias-economic-pivot-asia-shifting-regional-environment (you'll notice I favour British academics, there's a really good core of British academia that never stopped looking at Russia). Long story short the Russia-China relationship is really complicated and Russia probably doesn't want China acting in SEA the way that Russia acts in EE.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:14
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Alchenar posted:If people want to read more on the Russian economic relationship with China this is a good paper: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/briefing-papers/russias-economic-pivot-asia-shifting-regional-environment russia doesn't want lots of things that are natural consequences of its actions.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:16
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FishBulbia posted:The idea is with the hybrid war approach, Russia can avoid the costs of open conflict while still wrecking Ukraine economically and politically. They have been doing the hybrid war since 2014
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Feb 11, 2022 21:19
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Alchenar posted:I mean we've clearly passed some kind of 'for reals evacuate embassies and if you are a citizen gtfo' threshold for a lot of countries. I suspect it's non-US countries following US media reports to a fair degree. I really doubt that, e.g., Japan has this whole spy operation in Ukrainian and Russian armed forces, to tell on its own that poo poo is going down. The one evacuation I'm slightly concerned with is the EU ambassador email EEAS expat staff "I advise non-essential expat stuff to get out ASAP". EEAS people are not really fidgety, normally.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:20
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fatherboxx posted:They have been doing the hybrid war since 2014 Why stop now? That's the idea of many Ukrainian experts. Full invasion still feels incomprehensible, destroying the Ukrainian economy and hiring people to create chaos? More believable for many.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:20
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QuoProQuid posted:Yeah, my take here is that this skater is underage and has been failed by all the adults around her. I'm unclear as to why her sample, which was submitted in December, was only tested yesterday, one day after her event. I could be wrong, I have only casual understanding of the subject, but while they take samples from registered athletes along the road to the games, they don't always analyse the samples until after the performance? Because laboratory capacity is limited and there is little need to analyse the piss of someone who was dropped out of the games or someone who ended 49th. Even if sometimes this can lead to an athlete not participating or not finishing, like happened at FIS Nordic World Ski Championships 2001 when Finnish skiers were found to have used a banned blood plasma expander.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I suspect it's non-US countries following US media reports to a fair degree. I really doubt that, e.g., Japan has this whole spy operation in Ukrainian and Russian armed forces, to tell on its own that poo poo is going down. I have to assume some intel is being passed around from the RC-135/JSTARs units flying around Ukraine right now.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:26
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FishBulbia posted:Why stop now? That's the idea of many Ukrainian experts. Full invasion still feels incomprehensible, destroying the Ukrainian economy and hiring people to create chaos? More believable for many. Continuing to fund LNR and DNR while not recognizing them just as a long-running stopgap to NATO affiliation seemed like the idea for next 5-10 years, yes. This whole continuing business with troop movement is inexplainable unless you go into "grandpa has mushy brain and no one is saying no" discourse. we are so hosed
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Feb 11, 2022 21:27
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Putin wants to appear unpredictable. Which has the intended effect - you really can't predict him. This works both for diplomacy (to a degree) and militarily. Now that he's been diplomatically stonewalled, the question is if he's really going to go full hog or just do some demonstration of force. Who knows! If Russia invades, I feel like I will have to go throw some rotten eggs at their local consulate or something. That'll show him.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:37
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How are so many people in this thread convinced this is all a bluff? A major military mobilization, force deployments, foreign nationals told to evacuate, Ukrainian defense ministry is expanding to two million troops.. And it's supposed to be a bluff?? Do people realize how much effort and expense it is to mobilize forces, especially for two months or longer??
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Feb 11, 2022 21:37
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Al-Saqr posted:https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1492203844155150339?s=20&t=SBV-Wcy69P7BO04F5WMbcg Amazing stuff. https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1492216395483996160
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Feb 11, 2022 21:41
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HonorableTB posted:How are so many people in this thread convinced this is all a bluff? A major military mobilization, force deployments, foreign nationals told to evacuate, Ukrainian defense ministry is expanding to two million troops.. And it's supposed to be a bluff?? Do people realize how much effort and expense it is to mobilize forces, especially for two months or longer?? If - at least at this point in time - this wasn't a bluff then the Ukrainians would be under active mobilization. They are not.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:43
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HonorableTB posted:How are so many people in this thread convinced this is all a bluff? A major military mobilization, force deployments, foreign nationals told to evacuate, Ukrainian defense ministry is expanding to two million troops.. And it's supposed to be a bluff?? Do people realize how much effort and expense it is to mobilize forces, especially for two months or longer?? Well, for one thing until troops actually roll over the border Putin can decide it was all a bluff. But it would be dumb to declare that this was always a bluff and that Putin never wanted the mobilisation option. As for why some people are still insistent... some people are [i]really/i] committed to the narrative that the US is the only actor on the world stage and have to reject any narrative that some other national leader might have agency and malign intent.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:45
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HonorableTB posted:How are so many people in this thread convinced this is all a bluff? A major military mobilization, force deployments, foreign nationals told to evacuate, Ukrainian defense ministry is expanding to two million troops.. And it's supposed to be a bluff?? Do people realize how much effort and expense it is to mobilize forces, especially for two months or longer?? 8 years of this. That expansion is over the course of years, Zelensky has maintained that Russian aggression is following the normal pattern, not 3 hour sack of Kyiv predicted by Biden.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:46
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It's not as much that it's necessarily a bluff, but rather that there has to be a certain standard for deciding when we've moved from the threats and signalling stage to the "Alea iacta est" stage, and so far nothing of the sort has happened. An invasion would be an absolutely extraordinary upset, it makes no sense to change the outlook based on confused and largely nonsensical reports by people far removed from the actual events. When something substantial happens to change the status quo, it will be another story, and I think the evidence of the invasion going through will be undeniable and obvious. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Feb 11, 2022 |
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Feb 11, 2022 21:49
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steinrokkan posted:It's not as much that it's necessarily a bluff, but rather that there has to be a certain standard for deciding when we've moved from the threats and signalling stage to the "Alea iacta est" stage, and so far nothing of the sort has happened. I would argue that positioning amphibious forces along the coast while holding NOTAMs to block Odessa while simultaneously completing the establishment of forward supply lines and logistics and the transport of 114 BTGs, followed by the subsequent evacuation order for foreign nationals to be exactly the stage you're describing as not having happened yet.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:52
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HonorableTB posted:I would argue that positioning amphibious forces along the coast while holding NOTAMs to block Odessa while simultaneously completing the establishment of forward supply lines and logistics and the transport of 114 BTGs, followed by the subsequent evacuation order for foreign nationals to be exactly the stage you're describing as not having happened yet. The movements have been going on for a while. When they turn into an invasion, it will be apparent.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:54
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Dante80 posted:If - at least at this point in time - this wasn't a bluff then the Ukrainians would be under active mobilization. They are not. Funny thing is that Ukraine's preparedness is already about as good as it gets and pushing forces to forward deployments beyond the line of contact could be construed as a CB. All part of the double bluff. steinrokkan posted:The movements have been going on for a while. When they turn into an invasion, it will be apparent. It's not an invasion until the missiles start firing. Technically, it's not an invasion until troops cross the border (de facto contested border) after the missiles landed.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:54
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steinrokkan posted:It's not as much that it's necessarily a bluff, but rather that there has to be a certain standard for deciding when we've moved from the threats and signalling stage to the "Alea iacta est" stage, and so far nothing of the sort has happened. And further it's not easy to tell from the news feed if something really decisive has happened. Western governments apparently are highly concerned, but those same governments totally misjudged the security situation in Afghanistan last summer and had to do panic evacuations from Kabul. Maybe they are now leaning on the safe side. Or maybe this time they have a clear vision of what's to come.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:54
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A big part of the issue is this will be a military conflict on a scale not seen since, what, the Iran-Iraq war? It's hard to grapple with the idea that someone would willingly choose that, looking back at the last century of military history.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:55
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HonorableTB posted:I would argue that positioning amphibious forces along the coast while holding NOTAMs to block Odessa while simultaneously completing the establishment of forward supply lines and logistics and the transport of 114 BTGs, followed by the subsequent evacuation order for foreign nationals to be exactly the stage you're describing as not having happened yet. I understand where you're coming from, but you're conveniently lumping evacuations/advisories of thereof with the background, and possibly doing a "watch out, big number" bit there, depending on whether if you're trying to say that 114 BTGs have just been moved into forward positions.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:56
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https://twitter.com/BenDoBrown/status/1492239939525824517 What looks to be a repository of geolocated Russian military movements surrounding Ukraine in recent days
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Feb 11, 2022 21:57
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Morrow posted:A big part of the issue is this will be a military conflict on a scale not seen since, what, the Iran-Iraq war? It's hard to grapple with the idea that someone would willingly choose that, looking back at the last century of military history. Gulf War 2. But this is different since it'd be the first conflict between two modern armed forces (Nagorno-Karabakh 2 notwithstanding). If it isn't a bluff, that is.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:57
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Alchenar posted:Well, for one thing until troops actually roll over the border Putin can decide it was all a bluff. But it would be dumb to declare that this was always a bluff and that Putin never wanted the mobilisation option. Putin has agency and malign intent that he continuously acts on. It's just that open war with Ukraine is not part of this intent.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:00
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I understand where you're coming from, but you're conveniently lumping evacuations/advisories of thereof with the background, and possibly doing a "watch out, big number" bit there, depending on whether if you're trying to say that 114 BTGs have just been moved into forward positions. How is it convenient to establish cause and effect in decision making? 114 BTGs are a tremendous amount of troops and redirecting the Baltic fleet to the black sea while redirecting half of the Pacific fleet as well, those are very important things to consider. Fleets are enormously expensive to maintain, even more so when they aren't in port. Those 114 BTGs are in advance forward positions now; vehicles and troops left FOBs earlier in the week. Troops are being kept in infantry tents in the field, which is not something you can do for very long if you don't want your troops to start freezing and getting sick.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:01
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HonorableTB posted:How is it convenient to establish cause and effect in decision making? 114 BTGs are a tremendous amount of troops and redirecting the Baltic fleet to the black sea while redirecting half of the Pacific fleet as well, those are very important things to consider. Fleets are enormously expensive to maintain, even more so when they aren't in port. Those 114 BTGs are in advance forward positions now; vehicles and troops left FOBs earlier in the week. Troops are being kept in infantry tents in the field, which is not something you can do for very long if you don't want your troops to start freezing and getting sick. Putin just wants some respect, man.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:04
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HonorableTB posted:How is it convenient to establish cause and effect in decision making? 114 BTGs are a tremendous amount of troops and redirecting the Baltic fleet to the black sea while redirecting half of the Pacific fleet as well, those are very important things to consider. Fleets are enormously expensive to maintain, even more so when they aren't in port. Those 114 BTGs are in advance forward positions now; vehicles and troops left FOBs earlier in the week. Troops are being kept in infantry tents in the field, which is not something you can do for very long if you don't want your troops to start freezing and getting sick. It is convenient in that right now the root cause is unclear, and initial rumours are being disputed by their supposed sources. Which makes it a low-quality argument at the present, even if your thinking will be proven true in soon. 114 BTGs is a disputed number, and while there's clearly a vast army there, the claim that all of them are in forward deployments is also not something I've seen confirmation to here or elsewhere. All your other arguments are something that is being repeated every day here in an out, you're not saying anything unheard by those following the situation. In other words, we're at the point where this thread is going to become increasingly prone to hysterical Clancy chat. I would very much prefer to avoid that, and so I'll appreciate if people will post with greater deliberation than usually.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:11
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Conspiratiorist posted:Putin just wants some respect, man. But he's not going to get what he wants. That whole list of demands was basically a gigantic non-starter, and Putin absolutely had to have known that unless he's gone off the deep end. There is no respect to be gained here. If anything, all he has done is make sure that NATO ain't going anywhere for quite some time. Hell even if this is a bluff (accomplishing what?) Russia may end up driving Sweden and Finland into the welcoming arms of NATO.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:17
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I think we need a better word than "bluff", which can be taken to mean that Putin is betting the pot on a pair of twos. Putin absolutely has the forces in place to achieve a set of short-term military objectives in Ukraine, but the "bluff" part is that he would prefer the show of force achieves longer-term wins without the need to actually follow through. In all likelihood, Putin recognizes the tremendous risks posed by an invasion to his and Russia's long-term goals and, with the bluff failing, is still deliberating his next steps and doubling down in the meantime.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:21
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It is convenient in that right now the root cause is unclear, and initial rumours are being disputed by their supposed sources. Which makes it a low-quality argument at the present, even if your thinking will be proven true in soon. I haven't been doing Clancyposting. I've been fairly consistent about my position since I started posting in this thread. The information I am using to base my arguments on come from this thread and the links posted here. You can find the tweet talking about forward deployment in here
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Feb 11, 2022 22:21
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HonorableTB posted:I haven't been doing Clancyposting. I've been fairly consistent about my position since I started posting in this thread. The information I am using to base my arguments on come from this thread and the links posted here. You can find the tweet talking about forward deployment in here Did you even read my post before replying?
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Feb 11, 2022 22:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Did you even read my post before replying? Yes I read it, and what you're arguing is semantically irrelevant. Does it matter if the exact number of BTGs is 108 or 114 or 120? No, not really. I also did not say ALL of the forces were in advance positions. And it doesn't have to be ALL of them anyway. Enough have been moved that the end result is the same. Saying "we don't know the root cause for military movements" when there's an entire army parked on a neighboring border is almost willful blindness to using logical inference about why those troops are moving.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:28
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Giggle Goose posted:But he's not going to get what he wants. That whole list of demands was basically a gigantic non-starter, and Putin absolutely had to have known that unless he's gone off the deep end. There is no respect to be gained here. If anything, all he has done is make sure that NATO ain't going anywhere for quite some time. Hell even if this is a bluff (accomplishing what?) Russia may end up driving Sweden and Finland into the welcoming arms of NATO. Hell Ireland published it's Defence Forces Report two days ago and while it's very careful not to suggest any change in foreign policy from neutrality, the Level Of Ambition 3 option (which they absolutely won't go for, but is getting positive noises as a target) is 'build a NATO compliant mechanised brigade, plus a fighter squadron, plus a dozen warships'. Which is exactly what you get if you are a country the size of Ireland and you want to make the joining NATO option real.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:28
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QuoProQuid posted:Yeah, my take here is that this skater is underage and has been failed by all the adults around her. I'm unclear as to why her sample, which was submitted in December, was only tested yesterday, one day after her event. It wasn't only tested yesterday, it was tested before but she was permitted to compete while it was under some sort of appeal (source: story BBC news front page had on this). It was, however, tested way later than December either way, which is indeed strange, since she has a pretty successful career, and isn't a non-contender who they might never bother actually testing. And yeah, she is apparently from one of those super-abusive sports schools, that wouldn't think anything of drugging up a kid if they thought it would help them win.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:31
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The root cause of mobilizing the force necessary for an invasion is said force receiving genuine orders to prepare for an invasion. That's a necessary part for the bluff to work in the modern era of OSINT and satellite photography.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:31
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HonorableTB posted:Yes I read it, and what you're arguing is semantically irrelevant. It's semantically relevant to not being probated if your posts end up causing a bunch of screaming that clogs up the thread. HonorableTB posted:Does it matter if the exact number of BTGs is 108 or 114 or 120? No, not really. It doesn't matter, indeed, so just say "more than 100" or "a ton" instead of inventing your arbitrary number. You're not playing a lotto here. HonorableTB posted:I also did not say ALL of the forces were in advance positions. HonorableTB posted:Those 114 BTGs are in advance forward positions now This you? HonorableTB posted:And it doesn't have to be ALL of them anyway. Enough have been moved that the end result is the same. Likely, so just say that "a significant number" of them has moved, no need to invent facts. I even gave you benefit of doubt with my intial question, but you doubled down that surely all of them are in forward deployment. HonorableTB posted:Saying "we don't know the root cause for military movements" when there's an entire army parked on a neighboring border is almost willful blindness to using logical inference about why those troops are moving. That's not what I'm saying, if you were to actually follow your question that I'm replying to. What I'm saying is that Sullivan is now denying that U.S. has intel on specific battle orders from Putin, meaning that you, strictly speaking, were premature to lump embassy evacuations/civilian evacuation advisories in the narrative of your opening statement.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:36
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I think it's pretty reasonable to be on edge when an ultimatum is followed by a massive movement of troops to a border.
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