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steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
I don't think there's anybody itt who isn't on edge, but I'd still expect better from professional reporters than this cycle of sensational claims and retractions.

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Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

steinrokkan posted:

I don't think there's anybody itt who isn't on edge, but I'd still expect better from professional reporters than this cycle of sensational claims and retractions.

I've got bad news for you.

iv46vi
Apr 2, 2010

Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:

Eastern Europe: Olivier's Army Are On Their Way

Impolite Olivier men

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1492231627329753091?s=20&t=bItGJ_wRj9wortONudn3fg

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1492250694052687873?s=20&t=bItGJ_wRj9wortONudn3fg

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1492251360456286217?s=20&t=bItGJ_wRj9wortONudn3fg

A little more measured.
Don't know what to think of the West's reaction to all this.
Is it a move to increase pressure on Putin to back down whether invasion was imminent or not?

I also haven't seen whether the orders to military commanders that the US is citing were expected given the exercises or if they're separate. I suppose no one knows.

Captain Muffin
Apr 25, 2007

Women like you are the reason this chickens late in the first place.
Ukraine is really stressing me out. I am software dev in UK, but we outsource a bunch of stuff to contractors in Kyiv. One of my team out there tells me it's just standard Russian bully behaviour but it makes me loving anxious. I get twitchy every time it rolls back to the top of news headlines (instead of Boris being a massive twat).

Just want everyone to be ok :(

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

FishBulbia posted:

Let's not doompost yet. I am guessing there will be little fighting in cities. Russia's goal will be decisively defeating the Ukrainian army in the field, something which it should be able to do easily, and then just getting a signature on the "ukraine forever bufferstate" bill

It may be their goal but I'm pretty sure the Ukrainian armed forces are fully aware that hanging out in the open when your enemy has air and intel superiority is a profoundly dumb idea.

What we know from Chechnya, Fallujah, Mosul and Aleppo is that there is no easy and fast way to take a city held by determined defenders. You can either reduce it to rubble or go house to house and suffer a high casualty rate.

Robocope
Sep 29, 2021

by Hand Knit
Lots of people itt going :ohdear: over literal American propaganda.

(USER WAS PERMABANNED FOR THIS POST)

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Robocope posted:

Lots of people itt going :ohdear: over literal American propaganda.

Yes, Russia would never invade Ukraine, that's preposterous!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
It's unfathomable that there could be a war in Ukraine - Russia has surrounded the country with peace keepers!

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Robocope posted:

Lots of people itt going :ohdear: over literal American propaganda.

Luckily there aren't many of your ilk left around.

steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Feb 11, 2022

Panzeh
Nov 27, 2006

"..The high ground"

Robocope posted:

Lots of people itt going :ohdear: over literal American propaganda.

Lavrov as an American propagandist is a juicy take that would have made Andropov blush.

Solaris 2.0
May 14, 2008

Robocope posted:

Lots of people itt going :ohdear: over literal American propaganda.

Yea it’s not like Russia hasn’t already invaded Ukraine before and annexed their territory :rolleyes:

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

steinrokkan posted:

I don't think there's anybody itt who isn't on edge, but I'd still expect better from professional reporters than this cycle of sensational claims and retractions.

You shouldn't. They're mostly professional reprinters of press releases, whether from the White House or the Kremlin. Usually both for "balance".
And in story like this one they often send reporters with no understanding of Ukraine to get involved --- again, usually from their Washington bureau, or, worse, Moscow one.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

OddObserver posted:

You shouldn't. They're mostly professional reprinters of press releases, whether from the White House or the Kremlin. Usually both for "balance".
And in story like this one they often send reporters with no understanding of Ukraine to get involved --- again, usually from their Washington bureau, or, worse, Moscow one.

Yeah, it was more of a verbalised sigh of frustration rather than an expression of a belief that the media are capable of competently covering current events of any significance.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Captain Muffin posted:

Ukraine is really stressing me out. I am software dev in UK, but we outsource a bunch of stuff to contractors in Kyiv. One of my team out there tells me it's just standard Russian bully behaviour but it makes me loving anxious. I get twitchy every time it rolls back to the top of news headlines (instead of Boris being a massive twat).

Just want everyone to be ok :(

Civilians in Kyiv will be living under air raid sirens for a couple weeks but shouldn't be in physical danger. Highly unlikely Russians would go for a twofer siege of Kharkiv & Kyiv.

A different matter for active military and civilians in the Eastern regions.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Robocope posted:

Lots of people itt going :ohdear: over literal American propaganda.

Ok so what's the goal of this American propaganda.

Xarn
Jun 26, 2015
What is it with people's first posts in thread and hot takes?

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Xarn posted:

What is it with people's first posts in thread and hot takes?

The NHL thread gets mad when people start posting during Stanley cup season

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Zakharova seems to be doing a troll face night shift with platitudes about bloodthirsty Anglo-Saxons.

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

The NHL thread gets mad when people start posting during Stanley cup season

The Pittsburgh Penguins will win Stanley cup.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Der Spiegel has some reporting on the US informing Allies individually about its conclusions. These included the specific routes that the US expected Russian troops to take and which tasks individual Russian units would be given.

16 February appears to be the anticipated date of the invasion.

Robocope posted:

Lots of people itt going :ohdear: over literal American propaganda.

which c-spammer's re-reg are you?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Friendly reminder to everyone, posting about posters is frowned upon by D&D rules.

Not So Fast
Dec 27, 2007


Pretty much every date from November to late Feb has been floated as when Putin finally invades, so I do appreciate why people are a little skeptical of whether this will actually happen.

For now Putin has what he wants in Ukraine - he occupies Crimea and he has Ukraine fighting in the Donbass, which means NATO won't bother accepting Ukraine. Is there really any reason for him to send the army in?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Not So Fast posted:

Pretty much every date from November to late Feb has been floated as when Putin finally invades, so I do appreciate why people are a little skeptical of whether this will actually happen.

For now Putin has what he wants in Ukraine - he occupies Crimea and he has Ukraine fighting in the Donbass, which means NATO won't bother accepting Ukraine. Is there really any reason for him to send the army in?

There was never any reason for him to send the army in anyways. Even prior to 2014, most of the key NATO members had openly declared Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO.

Its more about the EU.

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute
Have you discussed the 700 soldiers Denmark mobilized to scare of Putin? I have a feeling might just work.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Not So Fast posted:

Pretty much every date from November to late Feb has been floated as when Putin finally invades, so I do appreciate why people are a little skeptical of whether this will actually happen.

For now Putin has what he wants in Ukraine - he occupies Crimea and he has Ukraine fighting in the Donbass, which means NATO won't bother accepting Ukraine. Is there really any reason for him to send the army in?

Land connection to Crimea
Annex DNR
Regime change

All of it is bad and will probably only harm in the long term but in the long term Putin's dead anyway so


Trump posted:

Have you discussed the 700 soldiers Denmark mobilized to scare of Putin? I have a feeling might just work.
That's exactly the kind of naked provocation that makes Russia concern about its security

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

mobby_6kl posted:


That's exactly the kind of naked provocation that makes Russia concern about its security

They're on an Island though, so we need (a) boat(s). Does anyone have a boat(s)?

Not So Fast posted:

Pretty much every date from November to late Feb has been floated as when Putin finally invades, so I do appreciate why people are a little skeptical of whether this will actually happen.


I just read that the US based on intelligence is thinking the 16th is the most likely date. But I can't find the source now....

(Does anyone have a boat?)

Trump fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Feb 12, 2022

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Not So Fast posted:

Pretty much every date from November to late Feb has been floated as when Putin finally invades, so I do appreciate why people are a little skeptical of whether this will actually happen.


I see people claiming this, but I don't think the claim has ever been anything other than that from November people started saying 'the Russian buildup around Ukraine is unusual and more than what you would ordinarily see for an exercise' and that the pace of mobilisation made some kind of event in February-March most likely. It's also always been 'there will be about a 2 week period where troops move forwards and field hospitals etc get set up' and that's the phase we are in now. (I accept that you may have seen lots of bad sources)

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Trump posted:

They're on an Island though, so we need (a) boat(s). Does anyone have a boat(s)?

(Does anyone have a boat?)

These boats?

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-ships-sailing-into-black-sea-combat-power-near-ukraine-2022-2

That they are likely going to use in their scheduled "Missile Exercises" that will effectively blockade the entirety of Ukraine's ports?

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!
Eastern Europe: War of the Rus's

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


CommieGIR posted:

There was never any reason for him to send the army in anyways. Even prior to 2014, most of the key NATO members had openly declared Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO.

Its more about the EU.

Even then it would be some kind of association agreement at best, EU is even more picky about who they let in (& also includes a mutual defence treaty covering countries which are otherwise neutral with respect to NATO).

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Private Speech posted:

Even then it would be some kind of association agreement at best, EU is even more picky about who they let in (& also includes a mutual defence treaty covering countries which are otherwise neutral with respect to NATO).

There is an association agreement between EU and Ukraine.

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


Paladinus posted:

There is an association agreement between EU and Ukraine.

Yes, but there could be a deeper one, closer to something like Switzerland.

I'm not saying Russia is right in doing the insane things it does, just saying that Ukraine was never going to get into the EU within the next few decades.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Private Speech posted:

Yes, but there could be a deeper one, closer to something like Switzerland.

I'm not saying Russia is right in doing the insane things it does in any way, just saying that Ukraine was never going to get into the EU within the next few decades.

Which Ukraine is planning on going for in 2024-2025 timeframe.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Private Speech posted:

Yes, but there could be a deeper one, closer to something like Switzerland.

I'm not saying Russia is right in doing the insane things it does, just saying that Ukraine was never going to get into the EU within the next few decades.

Ukraine could’ve gotten in sooner than anyone in the Balkans, in my opinion. It’s much closer to the EU floor level (Poland, Hungary) than other prospects, and has no active conflicts with any member state.

El Perkele
Nov 7, 2002

I HAVE SHIT OPINIONS ON STAR WARS MOVIES!!!

I can't even call the right one bad.

Paladinus posted:

There is an association agreement between EU and Ukraine.

There is one between EU and Turkey as well. That one hasn't gone anywhere since mid-00s, and is basically dead. Assocation agreements with EU are fickle.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

El Perkele posted:

There is one between EU and Turkey as well. That one hasn't gone anywhere since mid-00s, and is basically dead. Assocation agreements with EU are fickle.

Turkey is full on run aground on the below issue which Ukraine wouldn't have.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

and has no active conflicts with any member state.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

steinrokkan posted:

I don't think there's anybody itt who isn't on edge, but I'd still expect better from professional reporters than this cycle of sensational claims and retractions.

as is often the case, look at what is being done and not what is being said.

the scale and scope of evacuations is concerning

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Ukraine isn't getting into the EU, yes, but getting candidate status alone would already have massive benefits and would put the country on the path towards legal, political and economic convergence with Europe. The Russian government doesn't want that for obvious reasons.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
can't see any repercussions to letting nazi dirtbag country into the EU, they can join in the race to the bottom along with Poland and Hungary

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Regarde Aduck posted:

can't see any repercussions to letting nazi dirtbag country into the EU, they can join in the race to the bottom along with Poland and Hungary

Gentle reminder: Could we not :godwin: everything? Jesus. Its so loving old.

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