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Al-Saqr posted:So here’s the question why isn’t biden providing zelensky proof of the planned Russian attack you’d think he ought to know about it https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1484171183264129025
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Feb 12, 2022 19:57
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Al-Saqr posted:So here’s the question why isn’t biden providing zelensky proof of the planned Russian attack you’d think he ought to know about it
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Feb 12, 2022 19:58
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Cugel the Clever posted:Zelensky has presumably seen the intel and continues to downplay purely to avoid mass panic. He really is hoping its a bluff and trying to avoid the economic impacts if it is.
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Feb 12, 2022 19:59
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Cugel the Clever posted:Zelensky has presumably seen the intel and continues to downplay purely to avoid mass panic. there's pretty clearly been a shift in tone and messaging from the Ukrainian government in the past few days. They used to get pissed at even mentioning war as a serious possibility. Now the'yre invoking the vienna document, the ukrainian military leaders are talking about their readiness. They voted to increase their army size even if they obviously won't have a chance to implement it.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:02
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CommieGIR posted:He really is hoping its a bluff and trying to avoid the economic impacts if it is. I'd think the multi-national corps are gonna call it when the embassy pulls out
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Feb 12, 2022 20:06
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If there's Intel about an imminent invasion, why is Stalin downplaying it  We shouldn't assume to know what is occurring behind the scenes, outside of public pronouncements, and additionally, that leaders are always going to act in accord with each other, even if given the same information. The government of Ukraine is going to be differently constrained than the government of the US. Anyway, Ukraine has been taking steps to ramp up its defenses, but only such steps that don't give Russia an immediate pretext to declare them a provocation. Naturally, such steps are of limited usefulness against an imminent threat, but sometimes there are no good options, and it helps to explain why U. is acting in a conciliatory and delaying manner as much as possible.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:07
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So if Russia is invading, no matter how evil you think it is, does it change anyone's mind about whether the West/Ukraine should have offered any concessions to try to head it off? Even if you think the moral responsibility lies entirely with Russia, isn't there still value in trying to save lives?
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Feb 12, 2022 20:20
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What concessions, Russia rejected any short of unconditional surrender. The West has been making concessions to Russia for years, only for Putin to break his promises. The same would have happened again. It's clear the only response to Putin is through force, a thorough reform of European military and severing dependence on Russian energy ASAP. Coexistence with Russia is impossible under current circumstances. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Feb 12, 2022 |
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Feb 12, 2022 20:23
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It's not like Zelenski has a wealth of options even if he believes USA's assessment. Ukraine has been preparing for Russia invading them for years now but in the end you have to wait for something to happen. Russia could attack now, or a week from now. They could attack on all fronts, or just from one or two directions, or just use air and artillery, or start with hybrid attacks and slowly escalate from there. All of these require a different reaction and Ukraine can't act pre-emptively.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:23
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Nenonen posted:It's not like Zelenski has a wealth of options even if he believes USA's assessment. Ukraine has been preparing for Russia invading them for years now but in the end you have to wait for something to happen. Russia could attack now, or a week from now. They could attack on all fronts, or just from one or two directions, or just use air and artillery, or start with hybrid attacks and slowly escalate from there. All of these require a different reaction and Ukraine can't act pre-emptively. He signs whatever capitulation and then brings in the Russian army to shoot all the nationalists coming to eat him. That's the theory with the Poroshenko opposition.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:25
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Sinteres posted:So if Russia is invading, no matter how evil you think it is, does it change anyone's mind about whether the West/Ukraine should have offered any concessions to try to head it off? Even if you think the moral responsibility lies entirely with Russia, isn't there still value in trying to save lives? Russia intentionally gave no room for concessions to be offered, no matter how justified you think the invasion is.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:25
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FishBulbia posted:He signs whatever capitulation and then brings in the Russian army to shoot all the nationalists coming to eat him. That's the theory with the Poroshenko opposition. That's the best move Zelensky could make for himself, yes.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:26
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Sinteres posted:So if Russia is invading, no matter how evil you think it is, does it change anyone's mind about whether the West/Ukraine should have offered any concessions to try to head it off? Even if you think the moral responsibility lies entirely with Russia, isn't there still value in trying to save lives? You should personally go to Ukraine and ask some of its denizens why wouldn't they just peacefully surrender instead of trying to oppose Russia.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:26
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steinrokkan posted:What concessions, Russia rejected any short of unconditional surrender. You think Putin's a liar in every other instance, but unwaveringly claim to believe that nothing short of every single item on Russia's list of demands would have had to be met before they'd even consider not invading. I just don't think that's plausible, and that getting some wins either would have provided Putin with an off ramp if he was looking for one, or offered a path to materially improving Russia's circumstances (if removal of sanctions was on the table as part of a process of reducing tensions) could have led to a situation where the cost of foregoing that on top of new sanctions would have been too blatantly unreasonable for him to push forward.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:26
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Conspiratiorist posted:That's the best move Zelensky could make for himself, yes. Getting airlifted out and leading the "Free Ukrainian Government in Newark" or whatever is probably a pretty cozy gig too.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:28
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Sinteres posted:You think Putin's a liar in every other instance, but unwaveringly claim to believe that nothing short of every single item on Russia's list of demands would have had to be met before they'd even consider not invading. I just don't think that's plausible, and that getting some wins either would have provided Putin with an off ramp if he was looking for one, or offered a path to materially improving Russia's circumstances (if removal of sanctions was on the table as part of a process of reducing tensions) could have led to a situation where the cost of foregoing that on top of new sanctions would have been too blatantly unreasonable for him to push forward. Putin's offramp was ridiculous. It's as if someone was trying to sell you a lovely used for car $100k. It's not going to happen, there wasn't a single thing he did that was remotely reasonable.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:30
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Personally, I think what's going on in a lot of people's minds is 'I don't think the West/Ukraine should have had to make any concessions' -> 'therefore they wouldn't have done any good anyway.'
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Feb 12, 2022 20:30
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Sinteres posted:You think Putin's a liar in every other instance, but unwaveringly claim to believe that nothing short of every single item on Russia's list of demands would have had to be met before they'd even consider not invading. I just don't think that's plausible, and that getting some wins either would have provided Putin with an off ramp if he was looking for one, or offered a path to materially improving Russia's circumstances (if removal of sanctions was on the table as part of a process of reducing tensions) that the cost of foregoing that on top of new sanctions would have been too blatantly unreasonable for him to push forward. As I added to my original post, Putin has been breaking every agreement with the West, every concession made to appease him has been abused and spat upon by him. Even if he accepted any conditions offered to him, it would only lead to further bullying and violations down the line, precisely because he's a lart who has never not taken an opportunity to use betrayal as a means to achieve short term goals. There is no negotiation with people like him.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:30
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Sinteres posted:Personally, I think what's going on in a lot of people's minds is 'I don't think the West/Ukraine should have had to make any concessions' -> 'therefore they wouldn't have done any good anyway.' Again - ad infinitum apparently - what concessions? Which of his demands were reasonable?
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Feb 12, 2022 20:32
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You are acting like there isn't a rich corpus of diplomatic history between Putin and the West in general, and regarding Ukraine in particular. Not learning from the past isn't being reasonable. gently caress that SOB, it's his fault that nobody trusts him enough to even try dealing with him.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:32
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Sinteres posted:So if Russia is invading, no matter how evil you think it is, does it change anyone's mind about whether the West/Ukraine should have offered any concessions to try to head it off? Even if you think the moral responsibility lies entirely with Russia, isn't there still value in trying to save lives? We don't really know what was offered. If a block on Ukraine joining nato would have ended the war then I personally think that's a fine trade, but it's not clear to me that deal was on the table
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Feb 12, 2022 20:32
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Sinteres posted:You think Putin's a liar in every other instance, but unwaveringly claim to believe that nothing short of every single item on Russia's list of demands would have had to be met before they'd even consider not invading. I just don't think that's plausible, and that getting some wins either would have provided Putin with an off ramp if he was looking for one, or offered a path to materially improving Russia's circumstances (if removal of sanctions was on the table as part of a process of reducing tensions) that the cost of foregoing that on top of new sanctions would have been too blatantly unreasonable for him to push forward. Russia is doing the same sing and dance as GWB and Blair did with Iraq on weapons of mass destruction. These are not demands, they are just a game to get to a point where calm Putin can just say that he's sorry that Ukraine and Nato can't be discussed with and he has no other options but to defend Russia by invading Ukraine. It's all a show.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:33
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Terminally Bored posted:Again - ad infinitum apparently - what concessions? Which of his demands were reasonable? I basically agree with Koos that Crimea should remain part of Russia, and think some sort of normalization, even if short of full recognition, would have been a totally reasonable price for Ukraine to pay if it had helped to reduce tensions. I also think a guarantee about non-membership in NATO would have been reasonable since nobody sees it as a near-term likelihood anyway. The point of joining NATO is to deter an invasion, so if it provokes that invasion instead, it's obviously not a helpful process. Once Ukraine and NATO have nothing to do with one another, Putin's other demands about NATO don't seem to have much linkage with Ukraine anymore.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:34
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steinrokkan posted:What concessions, Russia rejected any short of unconditional surrender. Let's be clear: the conditions of unconditional surrender are recognizing the sovereignty of the separatist states and Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and signing into law steps that would effectively prevent them from ever joining NATO. These are territories that Ukraine already has zero chance of ever reasserting control of, and a military alliance that it only very remotely has a chance of ever becoming part of. They of course have the agency to fight to the last Ukrainian to oppose Russian imperialistic ambitions in forcing them to accept these terms, but that's what compromising with the aggressor will look like.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:34
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Flavahbeast posted:We don't really know what was offered. If a block on Ukraine joining nato would have ended the war then I personally think that's a fine trade, but it's not clear to me that deal was on the table We know quite a few details and some of the negations have been public.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:34
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Flavahbeast posted:We don't really know what was offered. If a block on Ukraine joining nato would have ended the war then I personally think that's a fine trade, but it's not clear to me that deal was on the table Russia already agreed never to invade Ukraine in exchange for nuclear disarmament. Maybe this time they meant it!
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Feb 12, 2022 20:35
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Conspiratiorist posted:Let's be clear: the conditions of unconditional surrender are recognizing the sovereignty of the separatist states and Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and signing into law steps that would effectively prevent them from ever joining NATO. He also demanded a de facto abolishment of NATO
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Feb 12, 2022 20:35
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Sinteres posted:Personally, I think what's going on in a lot of people's minds is 'I don't think the West/Ukraine should have had to make any concessions' -> 'therefore they wouldn't have done any good anyway.' Failing to convince others to believe in your opinion doesn’t entitle you to smugly denigrate others’ ability to develop their own opinions.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:35
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Failing to convince others to believe in your opinion doesn’t entitle you to smugly denigrate others’ ability to develop their own opinions. Cognitive dissonance is obviously a real phenomenon, and that's what I think is happening. I'm not going to belabor the point, but I think that would be a natural progression. Deciding an opponent is irrational and can't be reasoned or bargained with in any way is obviously a common thing to do, but I think there are plenty of examples of it leading to dramatically worse outcomes than negotiation.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:38
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steinrokkan posted:He also demanded a de facto abolishment of NATO That's their negotiations with NATO - I'm talking about what the situation is for Ukraine, stuck in the middle.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:39
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Flavahbeast posted:We don't really know what was offered. If a block on Ukraine joining nato would have ended the war then I personally think that's a fine trade, but it's not clear to me that deal was on the table I sincerely doubt that was the ask. Because he already HAS that and Putin knows it. Again, the public concessions were NATO being moved West of Poland, basically gutting NATO members in the East, and various demands about Ukraine being a Russian state, including basically recognizing Russian control of Ukraine, also a non-starter. Putin views Ukraine as part of Russia, to the point that in 2008 he repeatedly said Ukraine is not a real country.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:39
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Sinteres posted:Cognitive dissonance is obviously a real phenomenon, and that's what I think is happening. I'm not going to belabor the point, but I think that would be a natural progression. Deciding an opponent is irrational and can't be reasoned or bargained with in any way is obviously a common thing to do, but I think there are plenty of examples of it leading to dramatically worse outcomes than negotiation. You are a person who in 1939 would be explaining to me that Poland should have just handed Danzig over to Germany.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:39
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Sinteres posted:Cognitive dissonance is obviously a real phenomenon, and that's what I think is happening. I'm not going to belabor the point, but I think that would be a natural progression. Deciding an opponent is irrational and can't be reasoned or bargained with in any way is obviously a common thing to do, but I think there are plenty of examples of it leading to dramatically worse outcomes than negotiation. Talk about projection.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:40
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Terminally Bored posted:You are a person who in 1939 would be explaining to me that Poland should have just handed Danzig over to Germany. Yes, this is exactly the phenomenon I'm talking about, in which every US adversary through the years is considered to be literally Hitler just to make clear to everyone that nothing short of their destruction will leave the world safe for freedom and democracy.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:40
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Sinteres posted:Cognitive dissonance is obviously a real phenomenon, and that's what I think is happening. I'm not going to belabor the point, but I think that would be a natural progression. Deciding an opponent is irrational and can't be reasoned or bargained with in any way is obviously a common thing to do, but I think there are plenty of examples of it leading to dramatically worse outcomes than negotiation. Putin is rational, in that he treats every agreement made through diplomacy as a piece of paper. Others are rational in that they recognize this. But you are right, only you alone are rational enough in the sea of shrike to see that this time making a concession would have brought a peace in our time.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:42
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steinrokkan posted:peace in our time. Find another analogy.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:43
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Sinteres posted:Yes, this is exactly the phenomenon I'm talking about, in which every US adversary through the years is considered to be literally Hitler just to make clear to everyone that nothing short of their destruction will leave the world safe for freedom and democracy. Expect, the people you are having with in this discussion aren't the United States. Putin isn't Hitler if that makes you feel better.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:43
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Conspiratiorist posted:That's their negotiations with NATO - I'm talking about what the situation is for Ukraine, stuck in the middle. I don't think it's possible to separate the two, this conflict isn't only about Ukraine, and even if Ukraine conceded on the issues concerning it, it would still be entrapped by being an accessory in the grudge Russia has with the NATO and EU over which it has no control.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:44
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Sinteres posted:Yes, this is exactly the phenomenon I'm talking about, in which every US adversary through the years is considered to be literally Hitler just to make clear to everyone that nothing short of their destruction will leave the world safe for freedom and democracy. I don't give a flying gently caress about the US adversaries. I live a hundred kilometres from Ukraine, have lots of friends there and absolutely understand that they are willing to fight for their country, even if that fight would be one-sided. And yes, Putin is a danger to freedom and democracy in Eastern Europe. Maybe not for some US rando who doesn't like their own countries imperialistic past and present, but yes - Russia is a threat to EE.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:44
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Sinteres posted:Find another analogy. Find an argument beyond smug condescension
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Feb 12, 2022 20:45
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