|
Yureina posted:If I may ask... what do you, the others posters in this thread, think should be the NATO response to this situation? No, you are right. If the buck doesn't stop here, the same situation will happen again, soon, and worse.
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:20
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 18:37 |
|
|
Terminal autist posted:Obviously I can't speak for Sinteres who it looks like was probed for having a position in opposition to the unhinged blood lust ITT, but scrapping the Western security framework seems like a pretty good goal. Do you seriously thing anyone in a Western nation is threatened by Russia? The FSB isn't going to inject you with Polonium for having weird opinions about Russians, Des Moines not going to get strafed MIGs. For a serious solution to the problem we should try making NATO North Atlantic again. Ah yes, collective security, a bad thing, it's every country for themselves, boys!
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:21
|
|
|
Russia isn't going to threaten you, I say as Russia enters month four of either threatening or occupying all its neighbours
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:24
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Russia isn't going to threaten you, I say as Russia enters month four of either threatening or occupying all its neighbours no no, that was a different class of "you"
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:26
|
|
|
Right, I am sure Russia is really threatened by those, what, 200 troops in Lithuania? Never mind much of this token presence there and elsewhere in Eastern Europe only happened in 2014. Maybe people won't be talking so much about 1939 if people had the slightest idea of what happened in 2014.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:26
|
|
|
Yureina posted:If I may ask... what do you, the others posters in this thread, think should be the NATO response to this situation? If anything actually does happen I think the nato countries should be to call Putin an rear end in a top hat and cancel his pipeline. Let Sweden and Finland join if they want to. Give Zelensky whatever aid he requests short of direct military involvement Defending the skies of Ukraine against the aggressor would be the moral thing to do but I don't think it makes sense logically. Putin's old and whoever comes next will probably be less of a nutter, starting world war 3 over his project isn't worth it. I also think that Russians would overwhelmingly rebel against the idea of occupying Ukrainian cities west of Donbass and putting Ukrainians in camps, as some of the more dire tabloids have predicted
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:28
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:Right, I am sure Russia is really threatened by those, what, 200 troops in Lithuania? Never mind much of this token presence there and elsewhere in Eastern Europe only happened in 2014. Russia invaded Ukraine, seized part of its territory, and started up a proxy war in the Donbass that's been ongoing ever since. Am I missing anything?
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:29
|
|
|
Terminal autist posted:Obviously I can't speak for Sinteres who it looks like was probed for having a position in opposition to the unhinged blood lust ITT, but scrapping the Western security framework seems like a pretty good goal. Do you seriously thing anyone in a Western nation is threatened by Russia? The FSB isn't going to inject you with Polonium for having weird opinions about Russians, Des Moines not going to get strafed MIGs. For a serious solution to the problem we should try making NATO North Atlantic again. the FSB literally tried to assassinate a russian dissident in such a way that a british citizen died as collateral damage in middle-of-nowhere britain. Almost the exact scenario you described as a strawman literally occurred.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:30
|
|
|
BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:the FSB literally tried to assassinate a russian dissident in such a way that a british citizen died as collateral damage in middle-of-nowhere britain. Almost the exact scenario you described as a strawman literally occurred. I was about to say: Brown Moses has multiple good posts on Bellingcat about tracking of FSB teams who are, quite literally, murdering dissidents in places like the UK and Germany. Flavahbeast posted:If anything actually does happen I think the nato countries should be to call Putin an rear end in a top hat and cancel his pipeline. Let Sweden and Finland join if they want to. Give Zelensky whatever aid he requests short of direct military involvement Most of Ukraine/Poland is covered by Russian air defense systems, so unless you managed to sit Russia down and get them agree to a no-fly zone I suspect it'd be a no go. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Feb 12, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:31
|
|
|
I think 2014 and the years after are exactly why the 1939 comparisons are so obvious, and frankly - apt. Just like them, we've had a series of concessions, assurances, security mechanisms to ensure Russia would remain satisfied and peace would be protected, only to have this supposedly peaceful system systematically dismantled by the very actor for whom it was created , in the name of pursuing ever more aggressive demands.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:32
|
|
|
From what I can gather, the simple fact of the matter is that Putin wants Ukraine back in his sphere of influence as a direct puppet akin to Belarus. There are no concessions the US, NATO, or EU could grant that would deter Putin from this regard, as Ukraine has clearly shown in its relatively short period of independence that it will continue to move closer to the EU and farther from Russia if left to its own free will. Asking if more concessions could have avoided this standoff is fundamentally misunderstanding the situation and what Putin wants to get out of it.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:32
|
|
|
let's also not forget the cyber attack on the eastern seaboard oil pipeline that sent gas prices rocketing literally last year. unless we''re not going to count that since its a proxy the russian government condones except when they think it might make Biden let them have ukraine as a treat.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:33
|
|
|
Also, you know, all the dark money and conspiring with fascists in every Western country to uproot the rule of law.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:34
|
|
|
BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:let's also not forget the cyber attack on the eastern seaboard oil pipeline that sent gas prices rocketing literally last year. unless we''re not going to count that since its a proxy the russian government condones except when they think it might make Biden let them have ukraine as a treat. So that brings up another interesting note: During the negotiations Russia started cracking down, visibly, on Ransomware teams in Russia. For a long time in a while, Ransomware incidents started to plummet. I suspect this was less about Russia wanting to end Cybercriminal activity and more a indirect offer to the West: Give us what we ask and the Cybercrime goes away. But make no mistake, these guys are a direct benefit to Russia and as soon as this is over, they'll be back en force and Russia will stop enforcement against them.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:35
|
|
|
Yureina posted:If I may ask... what do you, the others posters in this thread, think should be the NATO response to this situation? Personally, I don’t think we can do much. Since Ukraine is not in NATO, we can at most sell them goods or services, or help them with diplomacy - primarily by refusing to talk in their behalf. Russia doesn’t appear interested in talking at all, with all of the events of last 3-4 months happening just to set up appropriate justifications for various internal stakeholders in Russia, leaving supplies/instructors as the only thing NATO can responsibly provide, as a military alliance. Which isn’t much, given the timelines and logistical limitations. As far as demands for NATO reforms go - they’re all rubbish, and should be ignored. Which every member state did for obvious reasons, since the demands came slightly short requesting NATO to disband. Heavy lifting here can and should be done by the EU, because any war in Europe will cause harm to its immediate interests. What is there to say about war in one of the largest countries of Europe. There I’m personally of an opinion that some preventative conditional sanctions could’ve constituted appropriate pressure - specifically, a quick binding resolution to kill NS2 if Russia exerts further violates Ukrainian sovereignty.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:37
|
|
|
Yureina posted:Russia invaded Ukraine, seized part of its territory, and started up a proxy war in the Donbass that's been ongoing ever since. Am I missing anything? That's the big picture, yes. But there was also stuff like the West pressuring Ukraine to not resist in any way in Crimea, which was of course followed immediately by an attack on Donbass (not that Ukrainian military was much in a shape to resist --- hence a bunch of, uhn, highly dubious militias arising afterwards), series of vague and questionable agreements backed by the West that Russia immediately disregarded, and complete lack of any actual response in substance until they accidentally murdered a bunch of Dutch school kids. And, well, here we're again.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:37
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Also, you know, all the dark money and conspiring with fascists in every Western country to uproot the rule of law. This, by the way, is what has made my aforementioned biases against Putin so strong. As extreme as this might sound, I felt as if Russia's interference in the US 2016 election was an act of war - a direct attack upon a core aspect of America. Obviously the response to that wouldn't be to attack Russia because that simply isn't sensible, but I still believe that some very punishing sanctions are called for at the absolute minimum. No slap on the wrist stuff... but something very real and very serious. Apologies for the minor derail, but it is stuff like that which made me post my question. I hate Putin with a passion, and so my instincts are that he should be opposed and trolled as much as possible with the explicit aim of humiliating him. But obviously... such an approach is not acceptable for diplomacy. Which is why I feel compelled to ask if I'm not crazy in thinking that this situation can't be solved through concessions... because I seem them as not only pointless, but counter to my desire to pursue a vendetta.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:43
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Also, you know, all the dark money and conspiring with fascists in every Western country to uproot the rule of law. how can this be when every Ukrainian is a hitler-worshipping neo-nazi that make being against Ukrainian sovereignty the leftist option????!?!?!
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:43
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:That's the big picture, yes. But there was also stuff like the West pressuring Ukraine to not resist in any way in Crimea, which was of course followed immediately by an attack on Donbass (not that Ukrainian military was much in a shape to resist --- hence a bunch of, uhn, highly dubious militias arising afterwards), series of vague and questionable agreements backed by the West that Russia immediately disregarded, and complete lack of any actual response in substance until they accidentally murdered a bunch of Dutch school kids. And, well, here we're again. The whole charade with Minsk agreements was quite disgusting to me. In my opinion, EU was complicit in the fact that Ukraine had to sign some rather crappy deals, with the lovely silver lining of Russia not being interested in observing the agreements clearly in their favour.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:44
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:This isn't Europa Universalis, he has no CB as is (or one anybody believes, which is the same thing), and he needs none. NATO influence is a CB whether you believe it's a threat to Russia or not. Russia gets to say it's a threat and bing bong CB.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:44
|
|
|
Yureina posted:This, by the way, is what has made my aforementioned biases against Putin so strong. As extreme as this might sound, I felt as if Russia's interference in the US 2016 election was an act of war - a direct attack upon a core aspect of America. Obviously the response to that wouldn't be to attack Russia because that simply isn't sensible, but I still believe that some very punishing sanctions are called for at the absolute minimum. No slap on the wrist stuff... but something very real and very serious. More personal sanctions against Putin's buddies should have been enacted - most importantly, in Europe, because thats where they hold property. Unfortunately Europe needs gas too much and won't ever play hard.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:46
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:I was about to say: Brown Moses has multiple good posts on Bellingcat about tracking of FSB teams who are, quite literally, murdering dissidents in places like the UK and Germany. "From Russia with blood" is a great book on the subject aswell. It puts a lot of what bm says in perspective.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:47
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Heavy lifting here can and should be done by the EU, because any war in Europe will cause harm to its immediate interests. What is there to say about war in one of the largest countries of Europe. There I’m personally of an opinion that some preventative conditional sanctions could’ve constituted appropriate pressure - specifically, a quick binding resolution to kill NS2 if Russia exerts further violates Ukrainian sovereignty. Terminating the pipeline in the long run isn't going to do much outside it's kind of the crown jewel of Russia's energy industry. If anything, you need overarching trade restrictions but there's interdependence between them, the EU and even the United States. I don't know why but they're importing 10% of Russian oil.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:48
|
|
|
Terminal autist posted:Obviously I can't speak for Sinteres who it looks like was probed for having a position in opposition to the unhinged blood lust ITT, but scrapping the Western security framework seems like a pretty good goal. Do you seriously thing anyone in a Western nation is threatened by Russia? The FSB isn't going to inject you with Polonium for having weird opinions about Russians, Des Moines not going to get strafed MIGs. For a serious solution to the problem we should try making NATO North Atlantic again. Pretty sure he was probed because he's asking EE (including the goons in this very thread) sacrifice themselves endlessly to appease Putin. Instead, his american self-hate should have been posted on the CE thread along with the others. As for the polonium argument, I guess we've switched timelines where Litvinenko's poisoning didn't occur. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:48
|
|
|
Yureina posted:This, by the way, is what has made my aforementioned biases against Putin so strong. As extreme as this might sound, I felt as if Russia's interference in the US 2016 election was an act of war - a direct attack upon a core aspect of America. Obviously the response to that wouldn't be to attack Russia because that simply isn't sensible, but I still believe that some very punishing sanctions are called for at the absolute minimum. No slap on the wrist stuff... but something very real and very serious. I think it's a duty of our diplomacy to avoid reckless trolling, but yeah, that doesn't preclude pounding Putin and all his lackeys and bootlickers into fine powder using every means at our disposal while maintaining our commitment to treating the issue seriously. The question is whether there are such means, and who would oppose them for myopic reasons (ehm, Germany, ehm). Hopefully current crisis will convince governments to divorce themselves from policies that have effectively made them Russian hostages.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:51
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:Terminating the pipeline in the long run isn't going to do much outside it's kind of the crown jewel of Russia's energy industry. If anything, you need overarching trade restrictions but there's interdependence between them, the EU and even the United States. I don't know why but they're importing 10% of Russian oil. That was my idea for just the warning shot, to signal that EU isn’t going to get cold feet like it normally does. For full sanctions I would support a joint EU borrowing policy to amortise the damage of fully decoupling from Russian energy sector, in addition to targeting key figures in Kremlin’s closer circles and supporting American sanctions proposals with best reasonable effort.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:53
|
|
|
Gros Tarla posted:Pretty sure he was probed because he's asking EE (including the goons in this very thread) sacrifice themselves endlessly to appease Putin. Instead, his american self-hate should have been posted on the CE thread along with the others. Oh but it's ok if Putin murders other Russians, even in Europe, they don't count nearly as much as
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 21:55
|
|
|
Russia has announced that their Pacific Fleet had to drive an American submarine out of their waters. According to the statement the sub didn't follow a prompt to leave but had to be chased away. Read this in Finnish media. My understanding is that this involves dropping small explosives into water so that the target gets a clear signal that they are detected and not wanted, but small enough that there is no real risk. It's interesting that they know that it was the Americans, but not surprising.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:05
|
|
|
Poland has opened its border with Ukraine for Americans. https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1492602687053082624 KLM has suspended flights to Ukraine. Who was your carrier, Mobby? https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/12/klm-suspends-flights-to-ukraine-airline-2-a76361
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:07
|
|
|
Nearly exactly a month after a Russian sub literally rammed a British ASW boat after it had been similarly forced out of British waters. Yeah, the procedure involves dropping fake depth charges, on the assumption the sub isn't receiving outside radio transmissions.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:08
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1492608591995580418
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:22
|
|
|
This Putin guy seems like a real jerk!
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:24
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:It's interesting that they know that it was the Americans, but not surprising. It is very difficult to not know it, since no other country fields Virginia type SSNs. Which have - like every other submarine class - a pretty distinctive and recognizable sound signature.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:25
|
|
|
Der Spiegel Internatonal recently had several interviews with Russians in the border regions. Left-wingers generally sound burned out as it's become increasingly harder and dangerous to organize protests or even open criticism. Right wingers are still happy as pigs in poo poo though. https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...fb-711fd0d495da
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:32
|
|
|
I've found the nigh exclusive public emphasis on the provision of Javelins to be odd and don't know whether that is just a quirk of the media coverage. Buffing Ukraine's anti-air capabilities is just as important and it looks like some amount of Stingers have been sent, just without the same fanfare.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:37
|
|
|
Yureina posted:This, by the way, is what has made my aforementioned biases against Putin so strong. As extreme as this might sound, I felt as if Russia's interference in the US 2016 election was an act of war This doesn't actually excuse anything Russia does to any of its smaller neighbors, but if you're just looking at Russia and the US at a state level then it is entirely fair for them to gently caress with your elections. steinrokkan posted:Also, you know, all the dark money and conspiring with fascists in every Western country to uproot the rule of law.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:41
|
|
|
Rusdia is not going to attack Ukraine. They love it when everyone is livid and will try to keep it like that permanently. Embassies are evacuating, 4 months from now theyll try to return, russia will shush them away agan. That will kinda ruin Ukraine and the west will get tired of being nervous all the time and say gently caress it you won.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:42
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:I've found the nigh exclusive public emphasis on the provision of Javelins to be odd and don't know whether that is just a quirk of the media coverage. Buffing Ukraine's anti-air capabilities is just as important and it looks like some amount of Stingers have been sent, just without the same fanfare. There's a very good reason for that: MANPADs proliferating into the black market could be a nightmare in terms of civilian lives lost and PR. You probably can't inflict hundreds of civilian casualties with a single javelin. I'm guessing the stingers are locked down a lot tighter and not dispersed as widely as the javelins, assuming many have arrived at all Flavahbeast fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Feb 12, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:42
|
|
|
Stingers are antiquated, and the Soviets already knew how to counteract then in the Afghan war, so that doesn't seem like such a big deal... The question with javelins is, would the troops even be able to use them? Did they have enough time? Were they even given enough to do some test shooting?
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:42
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 18:37 |
|
|
Sekenr posted:Rusdia is not going to attack Ukraine. They love it when everyone is livid and will try to keep it like that permanently. Embassies are evacuating, 4 months from now theyll try to return, russia will shush them away agan. That will kinda ruin Ukraine and the west will get tired of being nervous all the time and say gently caress it you won. If nothing happens and then theres another buildup like this in six months Im thinking people will be real over it any not even bother evacuating the embassies
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2022 22:44
|
|