|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Russia isn't threatening NATO. It only wants it to disband or else.
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 12, 2024 23:15 |
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:One thing I do hate and see as possibly proof this is all going to end in a normal day is the they keep sending loving jets to fly on NATO air space like why? Russia isn't threatening NATO.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:17
|
|
|
Yeah just on a contingency level it'd be literally negligent to not assume the ukraine-facing buildup might be a bait n switch (even if it's an incredibly low likelihood, ofc)
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:19
|
|
|
Yeah but that isn't much new. I mean Russia is constantly breaching air space as it stands and having to be chased out if Estonia etc. Either way Kaliningrad let's them do this poo poo. So sending a few typhoons isn't going to change that. I get the security aspect. But it's kind of insane that they go yes we are helping Ukraine by putting troops in Warsaw. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 03:26 on Feb 13, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:22
|
|
|
Anyone have a time frame for the invasion? I remember hearing on the news that it would use the Olympics as a distraction.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:25
|
|
|
Anytime between now and the middle of March. Ideally, sometime in the next few weeks or when the Olympics end.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:26
|
|
|
Cpt_Obvious posted:Anyone have a time frame for the invasion? I remember hearing on the news that it would use the Olympics as a distraction. I'd think the next half dozen weeks or less. Russians will start dropping dead from drinking jet fuel and the battlefield casualties will take a toll on putins prospects.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:30
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:"" How is starting a war that will kill tens of thousands and create regional chaos not a threat?
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:31
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:I mean his cohort would defend him if he declared war over a stubbed toe, and none of his actual peers care about the nominal excuse he comes up with It goes further than that. Fact is one of the world's largest militaries has concentrated >60% of its fighting power along the border of a country it invaded less than 10 years ago and somehow we still have no loving idea what it's going to do or how they're going to do it. In response we have people who, for example, believe Putin is loving Hitler 2.0 and can't be reasoned with repeatedly assert that nevertheless he wouldn't attack because he's a coward or because he's got nothing to gain or won't risk sanctions and it was always just a bluff to earn international respect after being cooped up in a bunker for too long. Then we have the US publicly declaring they have absolute confidence through their security apparatus that Russia is aiming for a full-scale invasion, only to walk it back hours later, then flip flop again (nevermind Biden's "small incursion" gaffe), with international media alternating between ghoulishly sounding the war drums or pressing NATO governments for proof. And meanwhile the government of the country being encircled is asking everyone to calm the gently caress down and while insisting there's no reason to believe they're being invaded. That's the sort of effect maintaining even remotely plausible ambiguity has. Score one for strategic maskirovka. https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1492564532539105288
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:32
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Yeah but that isn't much new. I mean Russia is constantly breaching air space as it stands and having to be chased out if Estonia etc. Either way Kaliningrad let's them do this poo poo. So sending a few typhoons isn't going to change that. i mean i don't disagree, but pretty much the entirety of the (frankly surprisingly cohesive) european response is intended to make it clear that there will be consequences if Russia decides to invade. How much good that will do is anyone's guess, but if you went back 2 months and asked almost anywhere how much the rest of europe and the US would do to discourage russia from invading Ukraine, I think the almost universal answer would've been massively less than they now seem willing to do.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:33
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:Anytime between now and the middle of March. Ideally, sometime in the next few weeks or when the Olympics end. Past march the ground becomes muddy which makes it harder to move tanks through. Putin also temporarily loses his biggest defense against sanctions and actual consequences for his actions which is being Europe's heating supply.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:33
|
|
|
Redgrendel2001 posted:How is starting a war that will kill tens of thousands and create regional chaos not a threat? It is a threat. Bur Russia has a massive intelligence network inside the EU which basically kills with near impunity. The Us and Europe know this but capital investment in Russia means they cannot do poo poo about it. I mean the Russian threat is the biggest boon for US European interests as we are increasing troop counts after a few decades of decreasing. Russia can do more with a well placed whore or honeypot wife than a loving air incursion. The point is Putin wouldn't go after NATO because that's game over. NATO would have to cease existence before he attempts to re-liberate Budapest. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Feb 13, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:38
|
|
|
BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Past march the ground becomes muddy which makes it harder to move tanks through. Putin also temporarily loses his biggest defense against sanctions and actual consequences for his actions which is being Europe's heating supply. There's also the issue of costs as keeping the military on the border is extremely expensive for Russia. You can't perform these exercises indefinitely. Additional time only allows further development of the of the Ukrainian military which includes long range ballistic missiles. Granted, Russia would probably will win but the cost would much, much, higher and a potential stalemate.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:39
|
|
|
We should give Ukraine a nuke.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:42
|
|
|
This situation could be defused if any of the big actors tweeted "launching nukes... NOW!!!" followed by "just kidding lol" a few minutes later. Everyone would just have a good laugh!
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:47
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:This situation could be defused if any of the big actors tweeted "launching nukes... NOW!!!" followed by "just kidding lol" a few minutes later. Everyone would just have a good laugh!
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:48
|
|
|
Conspiratiorist posted:In response we have people who, for example, believe Putin is loving Hitler 2.0 and can't be reasoned with repeatedly assert that nevertheless he wouldn't attack because he's a coward or because he's got nothing to gain or won't risk sanctions and it was always just a bluff to earn international respect after being cooped up in a bunker for too long. This is only a contradiction if you think that all people who are not Putin are the same person and he's some kind of robot and everybody has to be absolutely logical or speak with the same voice all of the time. There's no contradiction between someone not responding to conventional reason in most situations but still backing off at some point. Conspiratiorist posted:Then we have the US publicly declaring they have absolute confidence through their security apparatus that Russia is aiming for a full-scale invasion, only to walk it back hours later, then flip flop again (nevermind Biden's "small incursion" gaffe), with international media alternating between ghoulishly sounding the war drums or pressing NATO governments for proof. It's of course totally unacceptable to report that Russia is now ready to strike and that if it actually does, the campaign would probably take X amount of days (hours?). The press has to talk with the same voice (see above), otherwise it's completely worthless. Different opinions or assessments? Not possible, checkmate press! Also, preparing for an undesirable event totally means that you want that event, you monsters!
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:52
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Yeah but that isn't much new. I mean Russia is constantly breaching air space as it stands and having to be chased out if Estonia etc. Either way Kaliningrad let's them do this poo poo. So sending a few typhoons isn't going to change that. The logic of "chasing them out" of our airspace is to display the capability to do so. So if a Russian fighter shows up in our airspace, it is met with a fighter, even if no one is intending to shoot anyone. Similar logic applies to amping up the air response in EE, even if it won't "stop" Russia from flexing around.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:55
|
|
|
Rappaport posted:The logic of "chasing them out" of our airspace is to display the capability to do so. So if a Russian fighter shows up in our airspace, it is met with a fighter, even if no one is intending to shoot anyone. Similar logic applies to amping up the air response in EE, even if it won't "stop" Russia from flexing around.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 03:56
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:If we wanted to stop Russia from entering NATO airspace we would ask turkey to post fighters in EE. It’s possible the Romanians themselves requested the extra patrols and the British just happen to be the ones to oblige.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 04:08
|
|
|
So, if there isn't an invasion next week, how do we tell whether or not it's because the us and Europe's actions managed to dissuade Putin, versus us intel was spouting bullshit yet again?
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 04:40
|
|
|
we don't  I doubt anything that's been done so far has changed his plans one way or the other, though
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 04:42
|
|
|
A big flaming stink posted:So, if there isn't an invasion next week, how do we tell whether or not it's because the us and Europe's actions managed to dissuade Putin, versus us intel was spouting bullshit yet again? The point seems to be to heckle him, like trying to call out all the moves a magician is making during a performance. You may not be right, but it infuriates the magician and he may blow his tricks spectacularly. Or distracting a basketball player shooting a free throw, or talking loudly at a guy trying to set up for a golf shot. You distract him and hope it leads to something going spectacularly wrong. That's about all we can do, frankly.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 04:50
|
|
|
I know this is mostly just speculating, that there's bigger poo poo going on right now and I'm not an expert on EE politics by any means, but what exactly happens when Putin dies or steps down? Is there anyone else lined up to take his place when that day comes or is he just full-on FYGM about whatever the next generation of Russian politics looks like?
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 04:51
|
|
|
A big flaming stink posted:So, if there isn't an invasion next week, how do we tell whether or not it's because the us and Europe's actions managed to dissuade Putin, versus us intel was spouting bullshit yet again? Every embassy in the world is leaving Ukraine, Russia has something like a third of it's entire military surrounding the Country and commercial flights are grounded.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 04:53
|
|
|
MechanicalTomPetty posted:I know this is mostly just speculating, that there's bigger poo poo going on right now and I'm not an expert on EE politics by any means, but what exactly happens when Putin dies or steps down? Is there anyone else lined up to take his place when that day comes or is he just full-on FYGM about whatever the next generation of Russian politics looks like? In brief, there's no outward sign of an explicit next in line, because if you're a strongman dictator, having a next in line or succession planning is basically giving someone an on-ramp to overthrowing you. Individuals who seemed to have been floated/groomed for the purpose, like Medvedev, don't seem to have stuck around in such a role. That said, Russia has enough institutions and structures in place that it's not really evident that they'd go into some sort of public collapse when Putin kicks it.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 05:00
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:That said, Russia has enough institutions and structures in place that it's not really evident that they'd go into some sort of public collapse when Putin kicks it. I don't doubt that. I'm more concerned about its various allies and disputed territories, Chechnya in particular. Authoritarian regimes generally don't work well together if the guy on top isn't greasing the right wheels. MechanicalTomPetty fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Feb 13, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 05:07
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:Every embassy in the world is leaving Ukraine, Russia has something like a third of it's entire military surrounding the Country and commercial flights are grounded. Specifically referring to bidens claim that Putin had given the order to invade next week
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 05:08
|
|
|
MechanicalTomPetty posted:I don't doubt that. I'm more concerned about its various allies and disputed territories, Chechnya in particular. Authoritarian regimes generally don't work well together if the guy on top isn't greasing the right wheels. That's a good point, and I got no clue there.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 05:08
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:The point seems to be to heckle him, like trying to call out all the moves a magician is making during a performance. You may not be right, but it infuriates the magician and he may blow his tricks spectacularly. It's also to the benefit of the many many civilians in Russia and elsewhere in Eastern Europe who have access to Western internet news sources. It's not clear exactly how many people in Russia or elsewhere are buying the Kremlin line that this is somehow a defense of Russia and Russian territorial integrity. But if you're the west and you make clear that you aren't doing anything and it's Russia that's invading for no reason that does theoretically help selling whatever happens next as entirely Russia's fault.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 05:11
|
|
|
A big flaming stink posted:Specifically referring to bidens claim that Putin had given the order to invade next week Well, given their whole military is in the middle of doing a training exercise around the Country it's kind of an ideal timing.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 05:13
|
|
|
right, what I'm trying to ascertain is to what extent is that claim is falsifiable
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 05:17
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:In brief, there's no outward sign of an explicit next in line, because if you're a strongman dictator, having a next in line or succession planning is basically giving someone an on-ramp to overthrowing you. Individuals who seemed to have been floated/groomed for the purpose, like Medvedev, don't seem to have stuck around in such a role. That said, Russia has enough institutions and structures in place that it's not really evident that they'd go into some sort of public collapse when Putin kicks it. i mean, it depends. if you're full crazy mode authoritarian, you can telegraph that you're planning to let your son succeed you because what are they gonna do? they're gonna succeed you anyway in related turkmenbashi news https://twitter.com/Peter__Leonard/status/1492367056242679815 see also Lukashenko's kid in a bit if you don't want to do dynastic succession, you appoint a boring technocrat as heir apparent, and Mishustin fits the bill, but... well, who knows Putin's thoughts on boring technocrat Tokayev deciding to properly oust his predecessor, but they probably aren't comforting thoughts
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 05:40
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:In brief, there's no outward sign of an explicit next in line, because if you're a strongman dictator, having a next in line or succession planning is basically giving someone an on-ramp to overthrowing you. Individuals who seemed to have been floated/groomed for the purpose, like Medvedev, don't seem to have stuck around in such a role. That said, Russia has enough institutions and structures in place that it's not really evident that they'd go into some sort of public collapse when Putin kicks it. This is funny to me because the original historical purpose of clear lines of succession (beyond consolidating power) was making successions more stable by ensuring to stakeholders that current quid pro quo relationships with the sovereign would remain honored even after their stepping down/death.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 06:12
|
|
|
I wonder if some of the stuff going on in the west is to give Putin the opportunity to back down "gracefully" with respect to his cohort in Russia. When Western media is in a panicked frenzy and companies are cancelling flights and pulling assets, it makes it easier for Putin to pull back the troops and say "Lol you guys are fuckin panicky over nothing" and look like a Strong Cool Guy.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 06:17
|
|
|
Re: that bizarre 'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians' essay in 2021, is it plausibly regarded as a passion piece from the top or is it mainly blather for domestic consumption?
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 06:23
|
|
|
A big flaming stink posted:So, if there isn't an invasion next week, how do we tell whether or not it's because the us and Europe's actions managed to dissuade Putin, versus us intel was spouting bullshit yet again? There's really no way of knowing. IIRC Soviet intelligence learned the initial planned date of the Nazi invasion in WW2, but the invasion was delayed for various reasons, making it look like a false alarm. I think it's more than likely that some official Russian documentation says invade on the 16th; it's too specific to be anything else. Whether or not it happens on schedule is a different question.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 06:35
|
|
|
JerikTelorian posted:I wonder if some of the stuff going on in the west is to give Putin the opportunity to back down "gracefully" with respect to his cohort in Russia. A case can be made that Russia is leveraging Western media's ghoulishness, and the US State Department's untrustworthiness, as part of their maneuvers to mask their ultimate intent, on which there's enough seeded ambiguity they could conceivably finish exercises, everyone pack up and go home without ever firing a shot across the border, and blame the economic fallout (bad for Russia but catastrophic for Ukraine) on Western fearmongering. However, taking advantage of a situation is not the same as wholesale orchestrating it, and I wouldn't believe for a minute that this one in particular is being promoted by NATO governments themselves in order to offer some kind of convoluted de-escalation path.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 06:38
|
|
|
Edit: who cares.
Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 07:17 on Feb 13, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 06:38
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 12, 2024 23:15 |
|
|
Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:You're trying to elevate ad hominem and whataboutisms to a legit argument. As a German, I can call genocide what it is. As an American, I can criticize subverting another country's elections. *that the loser seemed intent on losing anyway Cpt_Obvious posted:Do "strong-man dictators" include monarchies? Those usually require an heir. Fake edit: I do
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2022 07:26
|
|
