Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Putin set up so much obfuscation he himself doesnt know wtf is going on. Imo his own "elite" who were all for "rattle the nerves of smug western assholes a bit but no to actual war" are getting nervous themselves. Another semi important ex military dude spoke out against the war. I imagine acting military are not super happy either. After ukro nazis and their NATO masters they will be next to be blamed for everything.

# ? Feb 13, 2022 22:59

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# ? May 16, 2024 23:04

TheBuilder: Jul 11, 2001

Will this all be started in time for me to see it on Morning Joe tomorrow?

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:00

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Also forcing Germany (and by extension the EU) who was more than happy to let Russia do whatever it wanted so long as it kept the gas flowing to switch to being hostile to Putin and saying radical things like Russia should face consequences for breaking international law. Putin hosed up and threw away something much more valuable than Ukraine but that bridge is burned at this point so he may as well finished the deed.

Feeling a huge disconnected with reality from the Russian government. The ambassador to Sweden just said in an interview that Russia doesn't give a poo poo about sanctions.

If Europe really starts to diversify its gas imports away from Russia, the Russian state wouldn't be able to survive that in its current form. They would have to cut their social budget to the bone and risk massive social unrest. And I feel like taking in millions of Ukrainian war refugees is exactly what could get Europe to finally reexamine its fossil fuel imports from Russia.

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:02

Cugel the Clever: Apr 5, 2009; I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

DrSunshine posted:

*nods sagely*

Trump, when the Wall fell.

Putin, his eyes closed.

The river Dnieper in winter!

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:05

Hanno: May 2, 2007; Ultisnecious

https://twitter.com/arstechnica/status/1492685217806618628?s=20&t=TfIsuJgiyYqh4MJNAJyDpw

China..!

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:29

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:30

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Hanno posted:

https://twitter.com/arstechnica/status/1492685217806618628?s=20&t=TfIsuJgiyYqh4MJNAJyDpw

China..!

?

???

Wrong thread?????? :confused:

Paladinus posted:

Better not show this to Liz Truss

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:33

Regarde Aduck: Oct 19, 2012; c l o u d k i t t e n; Grimey Drawer

Sekenr posted:

Putin set up so much obfuscation he himself doesnt know wtf is going on. Imo his own "elite" who were all for "rattle the nerves of smug western assholes a bit but no to actual war" are getting nervous themselves. Another semi important ex military dude spoke out against the war. I imagine acting military are not super happy either. After ukro nazis and their NATO masters they will be next to be blamed for everything.

Not really?

The only ones obfuscated are the media and this thread because you all fell for obvious bullshit. No need to pretend there was a masterplan that got out of control so how could you not be beguiled. People tried to tell you there would be no war and you wouldn't listen.

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:40

MechanicalTomPetty: Oct 30, 2011; Runnin' down a dream
That never would come to me

Paladinus posted:

drat, the latest season of Deadliest Catch sure took a weird turn.

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:41

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

Regarde Aduck posted:

Not really?

The only ones obfuscated are the media and this thread because you all fell for obvious bullshit. No need to pretend there was a masterplan that got out of control so how could you not be beguiled. People tried to tell you there would be no war and you wouldn't listen.

What on Earth are you talking about?

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:45

mmkay: Oct 21, 2010

Regarde Aduck posted:

Not really?

The only ones obfuscated are the media and this thread because you all fell for obvious bullshit. No need to pretend there was a masterplan that got out of control so how could you not be beguiled. People tried to tell you there would be no war and you wouldn't listen.

It must be nice living in the parallel universe where Russia never invaded Crimea and Donbas.

# ? Feb 13, 2022 23:45

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Paladinus posted:

Sadly, I cannot add an image to the thread title.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 00:11

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Paladinus posted:

Much better than my Tolkein attempt.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 00:14

Flavahbeast: Jul 21, 2001

Regarde Aduck posted:

Not really?

The only ones obfuscated are the media and this thread because you all fell for obvious bullshit. No need to pretend there was a masterplan that got out of control so how could you not be beguiled. People tried to tell you there would be no war and you wouldn't listen.

imo we need to wait a couple weeks before we can safely begin the See? No Invasion triumphalism. Surely it will taste all the sweeter with age

# ? Feb 14, 2022 00:18

Grape: Nov 16, 2017; Happily shilling for China!

Regarde Aduck posted:

Not really?

The only ones obfuscated are the media and this thread because you all fell for obvious bullshit. No need to pretend there was a masterplan that got out of control so how could you not be beguiled. People tried to tell you there would be no war and you wouldn't listen.

Even if you believe no war is going to happened, lol at the absolute swollen headed obtuseness in using the past tense here.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 00:20

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Paladinus posted:

Some mongolians got very drunk and very lost

# ? Feb 14, 2022 00:27

Grape: Nov 16, 2017; Happily shilling for China!

Aha! My completely arbitrary deadline I've never mentioned has passed! What say you now thread???

# ? Feb 14, 2022 00:28

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

Grape posted:

Aha! My completely arbitrary deadline I've never mentioned has passed! What say you now thread???

I'm extremely owned over here. My shitlib brain is literally broken and I'm ready to receive the eternal truth of Anime-Maoism now. Death to America

# ? Feb 14, 2022 00:37

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Paladinus posted:

Ulan-bator is the best part.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 00:48

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

OddObserver posted:

Ulan-bator is the best part.

So THAT's why Palin can see Russia from her back yard, she's accidentally in Ukraine.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:01

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

if Putin did not invade, wouldn�t the lesson for Europe and the US be �military aid and the threat of overwhelming sanctions work in deterring Russian aggression�?

the sense would be that russia �blinked� not that there was never any threat or that Putin was weaving some masterful deception (that ultimately got him nothing)

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:09

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

sort of, but also there are ways for russia to back down and more or less save face if that's what they want to do

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:12

Cugel the Clever: Apr 5, 2009; I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

QuoProQuid posted:

if Putin did not invade, wouldn�t the lesson for Europe and the US be �military aid and the threat of overwhelming sanctions work in deterring Russian aggression�?

the sense would be that russia �blinked� not that there was never any threat or that Putin was weaving some masterful deception (that ultimately got him nothing)

Putin apologists would be going wild trying to push the "hysterical Western imperialists!!!!" narrative, though.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:16

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

Herstory Begins Now posted:

sort of, but also there are ways for russia to back down and more or less save face if that's what they want to do

Ways for Putin to save face. I don't think there's any reversing the catastrophic damage this has done to Russia on the whole 'is this country a serious threat or not?' conversation in Europe. Aside from the pretty awesome cost of setting up this invasion that's already been incurred, there's the economic/investment costs that Russia has been incurring since September that will probably linger as latent damage. Sanctions that do exist won't get lifted anytime soon.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:17

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

Cugel the Clever posted:

Putin apologists would be going wild trying to push the "hysterical Western imperialists!!!!" narrative, though.

They're already doing that, tho.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:18

pippy: May 29, 2013; CRIMES

Regarde Aduck posted:

People tried to tell you there would be no war and you wouldn't listen.

What a weird take, but I'm new here so maybe I should look at your post history on this thread to understand your points better:

Regarde Aduck posted:

Russia has long range conventional missiles of its own. And more of them.

But please, continue to fantasise about why the dirtbag nazi country deserves to hold Russia hostage by placing missiles along its border aimed at them.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:24

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Paladinus posted:

You'll just confuse most Americans with this map.

e: why is Ulan Bator there? :lol:

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:39

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

You'll just confuse most Americans with this map.

e: why is Ulan Bator there?

American education lol

pippy posted:

What a weird take, but I'm new here so maybe I should look at your post history on this thread to understand your points better:

Let�s not.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:44

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

You'll just confuse most Americans with this map.

e: why is Ulan Bator there?

Well, Russia is big on imaginary wars with Mongolia.
I am wondering what they were going with Novosyoyrsk, though.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 01:46

adebisi lives: Nov 11, 2009

https://twitter.com/melindaharing/status/1492218334783447041?t=92EEZ-O2YYQLIt2kjIRu_w&s=19

Sorry I've been offline more or less for a few days but did this Atlantic council lady's informative post turn out to be accurate??

# ? Feb 14, 2022 04:08

Conspiratiorist: Nov 12, 2015; 17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the ~~fifth~~ ~~sixth~~ some day

adebisi lives posted:

https://twitter.com/melindaharing/status/1492218334783447041?t=92EEZ-O2YYQLIt2kjIRu_w&s=19

Sorry I've been offline more or less for a few days but did this Atlantic council lady's informative post turn out to be accurate??

Not... yet.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 04:17

Regarde Aduck: Oct 19, 2012; c l o u d k i t t e n; Grimey Drawer

What you think these people would just go on the internet and lie?

# ? Feb 14, 2022 04:17

Qtotonibudinibudet: Nov 7, 2011; Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

You'll just confuse most Americans with this map.

e: why is Ulan Bator there?

same reason novosyoyrsk and leninsk is

no label on akmolinsk across the border in yukon tho :|

# ? Feb 14, 2022 04:21

pippy: May 29, 2013; CRIMES

adebisi lives posted:

https://twitter.com/melindaharing/status/1492218334783447041?t=92EEZ-O2YYQLIt2kjIRu_w&s=19

Sorry I've been offline more or less for a few days but did this Atlantic council lady's informative post turn out to be accurate??

Turns out she tells us in the comments that her source is:
https://twitter.com/melindaharing/status/1492264828278300674

Luckily it's just the public White House briefing so we can see her logic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaZnp4GAIrc&t=190s

I'm a few mins in and I'm pretty sure where this idea of the weekend came from, she misinterprets the request for US citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24/48 hours because of the potential for Russian Invasion at any time. I see where the idea got misconstrued, but she's also not claiming special knowledge.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 04:30

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Sadly, I cannot add an image to the thread title.

Ice Road Tankies.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 06:36

Freudian slippers: Jun 23, 2009; US Goon shocked and appalled to find that world is a dirty, unjust place

Regarde Aduck posted:

Not really?

The only ones obfuscated are the media and this thread because you all fell for obvious bullshit. No need to pretend there was a masterplan that got out of control so how could you not be beguiled. People tried to tell you there would be no war and you wouldn't listen.

I told you the vaxine wasn't necessary, yet you got one anyway. Have you even gotten sick? No? Told you so :smug:

This is you, OP.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 08:15

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

Grape posted:

Aha! My completely arbitrary deadline I've never mentioned has passed! What say you now thread???

The joys of being a bad faith poster:
If Russia doesn't invade, you can be smug and own the libs for being pigheaded capitalist lackeys who believed the plot to harm wee poor Russia who would never hurt anybody
If Russia does invade, you can be smug and own the libs because THE Ukraine aka Fourth Reich Zelensky Banderite Regime totally deserves every bit of devastation Russia rains upon it in its righteous fury, and more.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 09:43

Somaen: Nov 19, 2007; by vyelkin

https://kyivindependent.com/national/center-for-defense-strategies-can-ukraine-really-be-invaded-scenarios-for-a-russian-attack-analysis/

Ukrainian take that full scale invasion is highly unlikely. Seems reasonable with strong arguments into the just a bluff by huilo camp

quote:

Center for Defense Strategies: Can Ukraine really be invaded? Scenarios for a Russian attack (analysis)

Editor�s Note: This is an analysis by experts from the Center for Defense Strategies: Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Alina Frolova, Oleksiy Pavliuchyk, and Viktor Kevlyuk. It was originally published in Ukrainian by Ukrainska Pravda on Feb. 12. The Kyiv Independent has translated it and is republishing it with permission.

On Feb. 11, reports from U.S. officials of a possible large-scale Russian offensive in the coming days added to the tense news cycle.

The officials even named the date of a possible offensive � Feb. 16. The U.S. and more than 20 other countries are urging their citizens to leave Ukraine.

So does this mean the attack is inevitable, and what are the real risks? What to do, and how to interpret this flood of reports?

Let�s analyze the current situation and the positions of the involved parties to draw conclusions and make cautious forecasts. In this article, we will provide a brief analysis of the following issues:

General operational situation around Ukraine
The most and least likely scenarios
The situation in the Black and Azov Seas
Defending Kyiv
Readiness of security and defense forces
Rationale behind the statements of the world leaders
What to do now?
Current situation around Ukraine

As of Feb. 12, the total number of Russian troops along Ukraine�s borders, including those in Belarus and in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine and Crimea is 87 battalion-tactical groups � about 147,000 service personnel. This figure includes air and naval personnel.

These troops are equipped with the appropriate weapons and vehicles, as well as logistical and medical support units. However, so far there are no signs that they have the additional reinforcements needed for a large-scale offensive. A joint command and control system has been established and is functioning in both Belarus and Russia.

Russian forces are actively carrying out operational and combat training activities. Joint drills of the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus, named �Allied Determination 2022,� are currently underway. They are scheduled to end on Feb. 20.

About 15 Russian battalion tactical groups and other units are in Belarus. Additionally, troops of the Eastern Military District (VO) of Russia have been deployed to Belarus, including units of Russia�s 103rd Missile Brigade, armed with the Iskander short-range ballistic system.

In recent weeks, the combat readiness of Russian units stationed on the border with Ukraine has increased significantly. The possible reasons include drills, an intimidation operation, or preparing to start an actual military operation.

Most and least likely scenarios

The strength of Russian forces near the border, including those stationed on the territory of Belarus, does not exceed previous predictions. We previously discussed the possibility of the Russian Armed Forces near the borders of Ukraine swelling to 160,000, but currently the total number does not exceed 150,000.

At present, the accumulated forces on the border are insufficient for a large-scale operation aimed at capturing all or a significant part of Ukraine. Therefore, predictions about the probability of such scenarios in the near future cannot be confirmed.

Moreover, we believe that such scenarios are unlikely in the foreseeable future due to the factors we have described in our previous article. In short, there is currently no active action in Russia to prepare the hundreds of thousands of troops needed for such a large-scale offensive.

At the moment, there are also no significant measures to create strategic reserves and mobilization on the basis of the Russian army�s centers for mobilization deployment.
...

# ? Feb 14, 2022 10:00

Libluini: May 18, 2012; I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...; Grimey Drawer

Somaen posted:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/center-for-defense-strategies-can-ukraine-really-be-invaded-scenarios-for-a-russian-attack-analysis/

Ukrainian take that full scale invasion is highly unlikely. Seems reasonable with strong arguments into the just a bluff by huilo camp

Probably yes to the first, but what the gently caress are you smoking to the latter. War isn't a binary between ALL CAPS FULL INVASION and a bluff, there are more options you can do, like e.g. just grabbing more bits of Ukraine but stopping at Kyiv instead of full occupation.

If it's still a bluff, it's a rather costly one.

Edit:

In other news, Ukrainian ambassadors asks for 12000 anti-tank missiles from Germany, receives awkward silence

To be fair, their other demands are more sensible, like radio equipment and helmets. I'm not really sure the Bundeswehr even has 12k anti-tank missiles left in storage, though. They may get disappointed on that front.

# ? Feb 14, 2022 10:20

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# ? May 16, 2024 23:04

Dick Ripple: May 19, 2021

If Ukraine, the EU, and NATO were all coordinated (which I believe they are somewhat, but not enough) in their response to Russia it would make sense for those on the European continent to talk softly to their Russian counterparts as they always mention these 'Special Relationships'' they have with Russia and for the US on its end to carry the big stick. It makes no sense for Ukraine or the EU to poke the bear when they have the US backing them up (well, more so for the EU/NATO).

# ? Feb 14, 2022 10:21

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