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Flavahbeast posted:I don't see it. Even putting aside the military angle, they can't change people's attitudes by force and that would be a massive tract of land to assume responsibility for. Paying to occupy and integrate even half of a country of 44 million while at the same time having destroyed their trade relationships with the rest of Europe would be dire You don't have to go for total Iraq-style occupation to successfully subjugate another state and gain military presence there. These things have been achieved through peace negotiations before.
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Feb 14, 2022 14:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Jesus loving Christ. Not even an opinion column, either. Same author that was shocked Ukrainian army (at least he should get some credit for knowing it exists, I suppose) didn't have clothing drying machines in the trenches.
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Feb 14, 2022 14:40
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/mattb0401/status/1493201469075595264?t=I2kx4AERlKl0FlSEfSUqfQ&s=19 I kind of think the response to such a power play is to double down on it. Putin demands a 10m long table? Agree that both heads of state must be protected, even at great inconvenience. Then insist upon a 20m table.
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Feb 14, 2022 14:45
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El Perkele posted:But Russia has a good long-term exit: Invade to Dniepr, cut off Kyiv, install a friendly regime (or even outright annexation), and then simply turtle up and wait for West to give up sanctions in 5-10 years. In 30 years' time, it's still a win for Russia if they have Ukraine as their southwestern buffer. It's likely Russia reads West as ultimately unwilling to engage in protracted hostile sanctions rounds against Russia over Ukraine. And what else would there be? World War 3 over Ukrainian steppes? Russia can also just take over Donetsk and Luhansk and use their military for intimidation, basically just another one of their carved out statelets they’re so fond of like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. The Economist had an article on the buildup today and they ended with that, so presumably that’s what their analyst thinks is the most likely outcome. https://www.economist.com/europe/to-russian-denials-america-warns-of-an-imminent-invasion-of-ukraine/21807701 Putin can probably take that region under the fig leaf of "they’re independent" and without suffering any real diplomatic fallout. I’d be surprised for a march on Kyiv or Odessa, especially now with it being impossible to convince any but the most hardcore tankies that Russia is not the aggressor here. I guess they could take over Donetsk and Luhansk, wait a couple weeks, then do a false flag, but I don’t see that happening immediately. Anyway maybe just wishful thinking. I’ve only read this thread for a couple weeks but there don’t seem to be any posters here who live in Ukraine or Russia?
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Feb 14, 2022 14:50
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OddObserver posted:Same author that was shocked Ukrainian army (at least he should get some credit for knowing it exists, I suppose) didn't have clothing drying machines in the trenches. Wait until he learns what happened to the condensed milk fondue.
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Feb 14, 2022 14:53
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This feels like a sign from god that maybe we shouldn't be giving Ukraine weapons (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 14, 2022 14:56
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Saladman posted:Russia can also just take over Donetsk and Luhansk and use their military for intimidation, basically just another one of their carved out statelets they’re so fond of like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. The Economist had an article on the buildup today and they ended with that, so presumably that’s what their analyst thinks is the most likely outcome. https://www.economist.com/europe/to-russian-denials-america-warns-of-an-imminent-invasion-of-ukraine/21807701 Why are you suggesting Russia hasn't had threatening presence in Donetsk and Luhansk "statelets", as you call them, since their inception? We do have maybe a dozen people living in the former USSR that post semi-regularly here, half of them from Russia or Ukraine if I have my marbles right.
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Feb 14, 2022 14:58
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Gripweed posted:This feels like a sign from god that maybe we shouldn't be giving Ukraine weapons Just gonna casually be named after a Nazi extermination squad.
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Feb 14, 2022 14:59
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So just to be clear, discussing the existence of actual, real-life fascist paramilitaries in Ukraine is verboten, but hyperbolic analogies of comparing Putin to Hitler are permissible. Yes? Just want to be clear what the rules are in here.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:05
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TipTow posted:So just to be clear, discussing the existence of actual, real-life fascist paramilitaries in Ukraine is verboten, but hyperbolic analogies of comparing Putin to Hitler are permissible. Yes? Just want to be clear what the rules are in here. I suspect maybe the trick is to not suggest that all Ukranians are Nazis. e: and if you really do want to discuss the existence of neo-nazi milita groups in Ukraine, we can skip right to the conclusion of that conversation which is "gosh, perhaps it was a really bad idea for Russia to deliberately destabilise the country and lock it into a permament frozen conflict".
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Feb 14, 2022 15:07
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Yes, you got it right in one, we love the Ukrainians because every single one of them was cloned from Hitler's toenail clippings by Josef Mengele himself. E: You are still doing better than the last guy who, in suggesting we should support the separatists in their struggle against fascism instead, posted a bunch of propaganda about the amazing progressive credentials of literal card carrying Nazbol death squads.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:08
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Alchenar posted:I suspect maybe the trick is to not suggest that all Ukranians are Nazis. Nobody is saying this?
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Feb 14, 2022 15:09
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TipTow posted:So just to be clear, discussing the existence of actual, real-life fascist paramilitaries in Ukraine is verboten, but hyperbolic analogies of comparing Putin to Hitler are permissible. Yes? Just want to be clear what the rules are in here. I'm afraid that no one else has access to your imagination, so you'll need to be more specific with your accusations here. Cookie Cutter posted:Nobody is saying this? On the contrary, it's a popular theme with a certain demographic of posters.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:11
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Saladman posted:I’ve only read this thread for a couple weeks but there don’t seem to be any posters here who live in Ukraine or Russia? There are (i live in Russia and I have relatives in Mariupol (Ukraine, Donetsk region) so very biased against any russian bombs landing on them) and since the inception of the thread the majority of people here have been EE goons, either nationals or working here. Only during crises like current one there is an influx of yankees.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:14
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fatherboxx posted:Only during crises like current one there is an influx of yankees.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:On the contrary, it's a popular theme with a certain demographic of posters. Show me the post where somebody claimed "All Ukrainians are Nazis" and I will concede.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:15
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Why are you probing people for pointing out Nazis?
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Feb 14, 2022 15:16
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OddObserver posted:It's also that there are only like 5 journalists that normally cover Ukraine, so when the topic is hot they go to someone without a clue, so you end up with stuff like this: I wouldn't call Democratic Axe a far right group, but they are comfortably on the right, where aligning with Svoboda, C14, National Sector, and other actual far right groups against Zelenskyi is not seen by them as controversial. In fact, the article doesn't call them far right either (or was it updated?). quote:Democratic Ax — one of dozens of right-wing or nationalist groups that represent a potent political force in Ukraine and are fiercely opposed to any compromise with Moscow This is factual to my knowledge.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:17
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Saladman posted:Russia can also just take over Donetsk and Luhansk and use their military for intimidation, basically just another one of their carved out statelets they’re so fond of like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. The Economist had an article on the buildup today and they ended with that, so presumably that’s what their analyst thinks is the most likely outcome. https://www.economist.com/europe/to-russian-denials-america-warns-of-an-imminent-invasion-of-ukraine/21807701 That is the "smallest" outcome of an invasion and the one that is least likely to result in long-term international condemnation (or caring). The odd thing to me has always been that by annexing Crimea and eastern Ukraine, Putin is removing the two regions most likely to elect a Russian friendly government in Ukraine and guarantees that every election is going to elect a government that favors EU ties.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:18
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Alchenar posted:I suspect maybe the trick is to not suggest that all Ukranians are Nazis. I never said all Ukrainians are Nazis? And the "conclusion" you come to about the existence of far-right paramilitaries being Putin's fault sure reads a lot like the conclusion I and others have suggested that Russia's aggressions are due to NATO aggressively expanding eastward in the aughts--a conclusion for which I and others have been viciously dogpiled on. cinci zoo sniper posted:I'm afraid that no one else has access to your imagination, so you'll need to be more specific with your accusations here. Grouchio posted:And, like Hitler post-Paris 1940, surrounded with yes-men. HonorableTB posted:Sinteres, in the timeline you jumped from, did Neville chamberlain avert WW2 through appeasing Hitler and securing a lasting peace in their time? cinci zoo sniper posted:On the contrary, it's a popular theme with a certain demographic of posters. And that's your imagination lol
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Feb 14, 2022 15:20
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Cookie Cutter posted:Show me the post where somebody claimed "All Ukrainians are Nazis" and I will concede. Regarde Aduck posted:can't see any repercussions to letting nazi dirtbag country into the EU, they can join in the race to the bottom along with Poland and Hungary There you go. TipTow posted:I never said all Ukrainians are Nazis? And the "conclusion" you come to about the existence of far-right paramilitaries being Putin's fault sure reads a lot like the conclusion I and others have suggested that Russia's aggressions are due to NATO aggressively expanding eastward in the aughts--a conclusion for which I and others have been viciously dogpiled on. Why are you thinking this is about you? I'm sorry, but this thread is not a group therapy session for your persecution complex. In the future, make sure to back up your accusations. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Feb 14, 2022 |
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Feb 14, 2022 15:21
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The NATO hasn't invaded Russia, stolen Russian land, killed Russian citizens, isn't occupying Russian land as we speak, isn't blocking Russian ports, isn't firing artillery at Russian conscripts on a daily basis for the past 10 years. What European NATO members have done is disarm nearly all the forces they used to have aimed at Russia during the Cold War, and regrettably leave themselves defenseless against Russian bullying out of naive faith that there could be some kind of peaceful coexistence.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I'm afraid that no one else has access to your imagination, so you'll need to be more specific with your accusations here. they are pointing out specific people that the media are highlighting
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Feb 14, 2022 15:25
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Gripweed posted:This feels like a sign from god that maybe we shouldn't be giving Ukraine weapons What was this probe for?
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Feb 14, 2022 15:26
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Probably shouldn't arm that specific guy then.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:26
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Pook Good Mook posted:
Russia is not very good with projecting soft power and Putin considers democratic elections nonsense (when they produced weaklings like Yanukovich). Donetsk and Luhansk being on fire is also beneficial for him as another unsolved territorial dispute holding Ukraine from NATO.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:30
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Why are you thinking this is about you? I'm sorry, but this thread is not a group therapy session for your persecution complex. In the future, make sure to back up your accusations. I'm thinking it's about me since you quoted me???? And I backed up my accusations in the very post you just now quoted. Are you loving serious?
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Feb 14, 2022 15:32
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Alchenar posted:Probably shouldn't arm that specific guy then. Well yeah, no poo poo NATO shouldn't be arming probed SA posted.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:33
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Regarde Aduck posted:What was this probe for? TipTow posted:I'm thinking it's about me since you quoted me???? And I backed up my accusations in the very post you just now quoted. Are you loving serious? Okay, knock it off. They implied that the Azov Battalion represents the entirety of Ukraine. That'd be like someone interviewing a US Militia Group and saying that is the entire country. Find something new to slapfight about.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:35
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There you go. One post does not = theme. And I can just as easily say the UK and US are nazi dirtbag countries because they largely are, but simple reading comprehension would mean obviously I don't mean every single person in those countries.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:36
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It's baffling how poo poo Russia is at soft power. Kremlin has some decent propaganda tools, and seems to successfully push narrative of strong manly men facing against degenerate weak Westerners. But just recently Kremlin started to push such basic messages like "be friendly with us if you want cheap energy". That's it, you don't need to add "or else we'll topple your regime and invade".
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Feb 14, 2022 15:37
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TipTow posted:I'm thinking it's about me since you quoted me???? And I backed up my accusations in the very post you just now quoted. Are you loving serious? I genuinely think that either you cannot read or you're intentionally mocking me right now. You alleged that it's impossible to discuss fascist paramilitaries in Ukraine, to which Alchenar observed what kind of posts happen in the thread at all. You took that personally, and then quoted 4 completely unrelated posts trying to say something mysterious. Cookie Cutter posted:One post does not = theme. And I can just as easily say the UK and US are nazi dirtbag countries because they largely are, but simple reading comprehension would mean obviously I don't mean every single person in those countries. You asked for a post, you got a post. Please concede now, I don't have time or interest to chase your goalposts or chew 8 years of thread's history for you.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:38
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Saladman posted:Russia can also just take over Donetsk and Luhansk and use their military for intimidation, basically just another one of their carved out statelets they’re so fond of like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. The Economist had an article on the buildup today and they ended with that, so presumably that’s what their analyst thinks is the most likely outcome. https://www.economist.com/europe/to-russian-denials-america-warns-of-an-imminent-invasion-of-ukraine/21807701 Yeah, but... Russian deployment of really heavy stuff, including offensive elements from as far as Far Eastern District, is pretty worrisome. And those forces are not just positioned to attack towards Crimea, but towards Odessa, Dnieper and even west of Kyiv. If those are just bluff to force negotiations, they are a superheavy weapon. And expensive one. And the actual benefits of them formally annexing the Republics are just so small compared to the cost. Russia has utilized frozen conflicts for decades. They have the Republics under their control. They do not need their major offensive formations in Voronezh for that, and formally getting them under their control does not change the strategic situation at all Putin also considers the loss of Ukraine a tragedy, which may weigh heavily on his and his cabinet's calculus. And Russia probably hasn't forgotten that Ukraine was a pretty drat important area in WW2, Polish-Ukrainian War, World War 1, Crimean War, 1812 and Great Northern War. And many other wars as well. Like it or not, Russia has a reason to consider Ukraine a place where Russian states have been defended, and at least Putin likely thinks Ukraine belongs to the sweet embrace of Russian-Belarussian-Ukrainian... unity. How that is achieved is probably not important in itself; Belarus belongs to State Union and has a lot of leeway in its foreign and domestic policy, and historically Russian clients vary wildly in how they run their affairs. Overall, it's likely that Russian goal is to have a friendly regime in Ukraine that cannot be toppled with another colour revolution and that firmly alings with Russian interests. This cannot be achieved with just annexing People's republics, but it can be achieved through warfare, negotiations and with or without bloodshed. Russia deffo has tools to wage war, though. El Perkele fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Feb 14, 2022 |
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Feb 14, 2022 15:39
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alex314 posted:It's baffling how poo poo Russia is at soft power. Kremlin has some decent propaganda tools, and seems to successfully push narrative of strong manly men facing against degenerate weak Westerners. But just recently Kremlin started to push such basic messages like "be friendly with us if you want cheap energy". That's it, you don't need to add "or else we'll topple your regime and invade". This isn't directed at you, but what "soft power" does Russia even possess? They have a fungible commodity that Europe can get from other places if they need to. That's it. Their currency is poo poo, they don't export culture, they don't support their neighbors (only their autocratic rulers), they don't have a system of government people want to emulate, and they have a GDP roughly equivalent to Florida. Their soft power is basically a protection racket and nothing else.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:44
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They employ a lot of yacht and villa builders in Europe?
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Feb 14, 2022 15:46
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I don't think you can really separate the very long and very brutal history of antisemitism in the Ukraine from it's current predicament. The centuries of pogroms and paramilitary groups that the Ukraine has been responsible for are not anomalous but rather a very clear pattern that continues to this day. The cossacks, for example, were notorious in their cruelty to the Jewish people. Does that mean every Ukrainian is a Nazi? Of course not. Does that mean Russia should invade them? Lol no. But you just can't pretend that doesn't exist, and probing people for pointing out that this long running tradition of hatred still exists serves only to run cover for worst people on the planet.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:48
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https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/1493218087054843910?t=EDl3erYGO5rNZuDFq7pdYQ&s=19quote:Lavrov replied: "We have already warned more than once that we will not allow endless negotiations on questions that demand a solution today." More time before what happens? Is there some kind of deadline for Russia? What happens then? 
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Feb 14, 2022 15:50
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I don't think you can really separate the very long and very brutal history of antisemitism in the Ukraine from it's current predicament. The centuries of pogroms and paramilitary groups that the Ukraine has been responsible for are not anomalous but rather a very clear pattern that continues to this day. The cossacks, for example, were notorious in their cruelty to the Jewish people. Their post was: quote:This feels like a sign from god that maybe we shouldn't be giving Ukraine weapons Gonna point out two things: One, that they are saying this person on screen represents Ukraine and therefore is a reason not to defend Ukraine. Two, they are now claiming this was a joke. Jokes are supposed to be funny. Nobody is defending Azov battalion.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:51
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I don't think you can really separate the very long and very brutal history of antisemitism in the Ukraine from it's current predicament. The centuries of pogroms and paramilitary groups that the Ukraine has been responsible for are not anomalous but rather a very clear pattern that continues to this day. The cossacks, for example, were notorious in their cruelty to the Jewish people. As you point out, it's not relevant to Russia invading them. Thus there isn't any reason to bring it up in the current discussion unless the poster has a secondary motive. Outside the context of an imminent Russian invasion, in may make an interesting conversation topic. Within that context, however, it smacks of "they have it coming."
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Feb 14, 2022 15:52
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Why are you suggesting Russia hasn't had threatening presence in Donetsk and Luhansk "statelets", as you call them, since their inception? I re-read my post and... I wasn't suggesting that? The current buildup does mean that there is zero chance Ukraine would meaningfully protest (e.g. attempt to re-ignite the conflict) in the case of declarations of independence. Pre-buildup then potentially Ukraine would have tried to do something about it if the DPR and LPR suddenly declared independence like, last summer. It is definitely an excessive effort for minimal gain, considering that they're already de facto part of Russia, it's just the only thing I can see happening that warrants the military buildup and which would not lead to a significant outbreak of war or sanctions against Russia. Maybe when Putin started the buildup he thought that Europe would roll over like when he took Crimea or invaded in Georgia -- although for Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia were anyway de facto independent well prior to Putin's involvement. PS: statelet is an actual term: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/statelet
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Feb 14, 2022 15:53
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