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No problem. You throw the football with your arm, not your thumb.
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Feb 11, 2022 23:21
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kiimo posted:is he the one with the thumb that doesn't work right In the sense that a double jointed thumb means typical football hand measurement methods are impervious!
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Feb 11, 2022 23:33
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Willis should be qb1 that way when he proves to not be a very good quarterback there should at least be some pretty fun highlights. Even rookie year Allen was fun to watch run with the football
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Feb 12, 2022 00:02
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I think Pickett will be fine. I have my doubts he'd ever be a truly great QB but it's not like Carolina plays many games in swirling blizzards. The dudes floor is probably alex smith or Teddy Bridgewater and his ceiling is probably Derek Carr. I agree the team should be looking at offensive line from top to bottom in this draft but taking Pickett probably wouldn't be a disaster.
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Feb 12, 2022 00:32
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Kenny Pickett’s **floor** is Alex Smith? Are we talking pre-Harbaugh Alex Smith?
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Feb 12, 2022 00:38
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Professor Funk posted:Kenny Pickett’s **floor** is Alex Smith? Are we talking pre-Harbaugh Alex Smith? Yeah pretty much. The Harbaugh years got the best out of everyone on that roster. Alex Smith passed for more than 20 TDs just once in his career, the dude was known for being overly cautious without having a cannon for an arm and good enough feet to make plays occasionally. Pickett is a pretty similar athlete to my eyes and has the same knocks about having small hands, taking the check down at times when the big pass is there while being solid under pressure, smart and talented enough to make throws off balance and at odd angles. It's the draft, everyone is going to kvetch pretty hard about the negatives but there's a lot to like with Pickett. He's improved every year at the collegiate level and does the between the ears poo poo well with decent mechanics an understanding of how to play the position, even under duress. He's not going to be Patrick Mahomes but there's enough positives in his game to think he'll make it as a pro and be effective.
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Feb 12, 2022 00:52
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I think Willis is the only one I'd risk a 1st on and even then right now it looks iffy. I don't think Corral's arm is strong enough to be a gunslinger. The ball just hangs there when it's not a 3 step timing route. He does front foot passing on deep intermediate routes and full shoulder on slants/ins. I don't usually like QBs like that but Watson did it and he turned out pretty good so I dunno. He's not nearly as elusive as Mahomes/Wilson/Kyler. Not that he's ponderous but he gets dinged up on all his TD runs. Also doesn't know when to go down. Pretty much why he got injured in the Sugar Bowl. I think his decision making improved a lot. I just don't trust the hang time on his deep balls. Stick him in a sluggo offense and you might have something. He throws the ball like Troy Aikman. Kenny Pickett puts his entire body behind every throw. It's pretty decent but he also had a big jump in talent this year to make him look better. His receivers caught everything. Also old and a one season wonder. Either way he has nice touch on sideline routes, fades, deep seams. Not the strongest arm but it's good enough. His footwork is sometimes there and sometimes a mess. Has really bad habits where he'll go wide in his drop back and throw a duck to the middle of the field but everyone is so slow in the ACC that it doesn't get punished. Decently mobile. They ran pistol plays that were design runs for him and he didn't look that slow. I think his ceiling is some sort of vertical zone scheme to let him move around in a pocket and improvise. I really don't know how much of his play this year was due to play calling or him looking off reads. I feel like he just loves abandoning pockets and finding reads on the move. Same sort of hatred Mahomes and Manziel got only Pickett doesn't get it because he's big and pudgy. Probably fringe first round most years, might be the most likely to go first. One year wonder isn't necessarily that bad of a label considering Jones/Burrow.
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Feb 12, 2022 01:10
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Doltos posted:I think Willis is the only one I'd risk a 1st on and even then right now it looks iffy. I don't know if you can call any quarterback plug and play into any system but I think more than ever this year guys are going to have to go to the right place to succeed. I doubt McAdoo and a lame duck Rhule are the right guy for any of the prospects. My point I guess was I don't necessarily see Pickett as a disaster if the Panthers take him at 6. After three or four years of just disastrous play at the position since Cam imploded I'm firmly in the camp of keep picking one high til you get one. Him being 24 doesn't really bother me because I'd be perfectly fine with taking a guy who'll be there for ten years if he's the guy because it beats the poo poo out of not having anyone in that period.
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Feb 12, 2022 01:22
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Doltos posted:I think Willis is the only one I'd risk a 1st on and even then right now it looks iffy. MY man! Thanks for the insight dude. I love when we live in my house and talk about prospects and the apocalypse.
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Feb 12, 2022 01:31
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Cavauro posted:MY man! Thanks for the insight dude. I love when we live in my house and talk about prospects and the apocalypse. Flattery won't get you my Enigma rat hand man
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Feb 12, 2022 01:32
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qb #9. Jah Berow
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Feb 12, 2022 01:40
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I mean, someone got the best years out of Alex Smith It wasn't Harbaugh though
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Feb 12, 2022 02:17
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I don't know how all the pre-draft rising and falling is going to shake out, but I feel like the Lions galaxy-braining themselves into taking Willis at #2 is at the end of it.
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Feb 12, 2022 02:26
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Can't even hold a golf club. How can we trust him to catch a football? https://twitter.com/PointsBetUSA/status/1487486503257206788
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Feb 12, 2022 02:46
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73 days until the full comedy of the Draft arrives.
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Feb 14, 2022 09:10
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So uh how are the guard prospects, asking for a friend
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Feb 14, 2022 12:48
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I hope my team does enough in free agency that they don't really need to address the line in the draft. Bengals suck at drafting offensive line they really need to just pay people who are already good.
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Feb 15, 2022 04:06
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tinstaach posted:I don't know how all the pre-draft rising and falling is going to shake out, but I feel like the Lions galaxy-braining themselves into taking Willis at #2 is at the end of it. In the Matt Millen era this would have been a distinct possibility but I have faith in Brad Holmes  besides Hutchinson is a PR coup and I can't see them taking anyone else unless the Jags really enjoy seeing Lawrence become mincemeat 20 times a gameAlso yes having faith as a Lions fan is like trying not to be sucked into a black hole after passing the event horizon but still
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Feb 15, 2022 15:16
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I agree. I just can't see Brad Holmes (and John Dorsey) reaching on a QB at #2. The value just isn't there. That said, I guess I could see them packaging the 32nd pick and trying to move up if they did love one of these guys. At the senior bowl they seemed to be most enamored with Willis, but maybe that's just a smoke show.
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Feb 15, 2022 15:23
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Hutch just seems perfect for the Lions, so of course the Jags will take him.
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Feb 15, 2022 15:24
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If Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are both available then whichever one the Lions take will turn into Vernon Gholston and the one they pass on will be a Hall of Famer.
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Feb 15, 2022 15:32
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Henchman of Santa posted:If Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are both available then whichever one the Lions take will turn into Vernon Gholston and the one they pass on will be a Hall of Famer. Ahh the Portland Trailblazers model
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Feb 15, 2022 16:33
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A handy ranking chart, pre-Combine. https://twitter.com/Marcus_Mosher/status/1493584993066655750
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Feb 15, 2022 16:47
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Dane is really really high on Walker eh? Did he release the beast yet?
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Feb 15, 2022 16:54
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Amy Pole Her posted:Dane is really really high on Walker eh? Not yet, that’s usually released in March I think.
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Feb 15, 2022 16:58
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Diva Cupcake posted:A handy ranking chart, pre-Combine. Why isn’t the grey ghost included? I blame politics.
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Feb 15, 2022 17:21
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Diva Cupcake posted:A handy ranking chart, pre-Combine. Charles Cross sure is divisive
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Feb 15, 2022 17:22
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Seth Pecksniff posted:Ahh the Portland Trailblazers model Take Greg Oden, you can't pass on him!
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Feb 15, 2022 17:26
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Charles Cross sure is divisive Not a lot of run blocking going on at Mississippi state so it's easy to see people be wary of a guy who just pass blocks against three and four man rushes 40 times a game
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Feb 15, 2022 17:41
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The Beast isn't out yet but he did update his Top 100 list earlier today if you have an Athletic sub. https://theathletic.com/3128069/202...ruglers-top-15/ It's definitely interesting to see him say that his overall #1 probably isn't even a top 10 pick last year. quote:1. Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan (6-6, 261) Amy Pole Her posted:Dane is really really high on Walker eh? quote:6. Travon Walker, edge, Georgia (6-5, 275)
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Feb 15, 2022 17:49
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Got my lunch hour reading ahead of me woop woop. Gonna read his updated 100 - I really enjoy Danes stuff
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Feb 15, 2022 17:54
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I'd probably take at least three edge rushers in this draft before Jalen Phillips and this tight end, running back, interior defensive line, off ball linebacker class from top to bottom are better than last year's class. But if you're all about positional value in the first round instead of just getting good football players regardless of position then this class looks to be a bummer at the top.
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Feb 15, 2022 18:28
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Chucktesla posted:Not a lot of run blocking going on at Mississippi state so it's easy to see people be wary of a guy who just pass blocks against three and four man rushes 40 times a game The last Mike Leach guy was Andre Dillard and he lot his job to a rugby player
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Feb 15, 2022 18:29
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:The last Mike Leach guy was Andre Dillard and he lot his job to a rugby player Doesn't really speak much to his ability to play the position in the NFL when injuries have kept him off the field and the rugby player is also a unicorn talent at left tackle
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Feb 15, 2022 18:32
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Why isn’t the grey ghost included? If you want a rough idea of where I sit on a bunch of these dudes, BR somehow has the most reasonable list of those--which feels insane to say. It's kind of amazing how much better their coverage has been since they shitcanned Matt Miller and hired a new department, though that's not saying much since Miller is essentially just Todd McShay for a digital era. If you average their coverage with what you get out of an old stalwart like ESPN that still toes the line about "prototypes" and whatever else, you can actually get a healthy/semi-complete birdseye view. I'd say for the first 25 names on the list, that's pretty accurate. They're way too high on Olave and way too In fact, here's a fun breakdown of draft coverage because even I'm not above extremely meta commentary. Kiper--Has lost a lot his luster over the years now that every time he fucks up we get an awesome YTMND style video of him screaming that Jamarcus Russell will be a god or something but gets a worse rap than he probably deserves. If you're trying to place him, he's the Schefter of draft world--says a lot of very obvious things but frequently toes the line in the direction of "what x front office wants me to say" and "safe prototype who meets size/speed but isn't freakish". He's lost in time a little bit too--if you watch his evaluation of QBs or OL, he's clearly still trying to do it himself which means he's evaluating things like 80s Parcells at times. 3 draft stars out of 5 McShay--Where Kiper makes up for his shortcomings by sheer force of will and networking, McShay does it with boyish charm and being a decent sideline reporter on occasion. He has easily the hottest takes of anyone in this space--shout out to Mitch Leidner, a man Todd McShay thought could be a first rounder until like halfway through his final season. Generally speaking, if Kiper reflects the desires of GMs and an old model of player evaluation, McShay is drafting like it's Madden--gently caress awareness or route running, gimme the freaks. He'll swing on guys with crazy athletic profiles or "sleepers" that are a favor to agents. Worst QB evaluations in the field, and I genuinely mean that. Seems like a nice dude at least. 2 draft stars out of 5 Miller--Somehow failed upwards to an ESPN/Substack type presence. He's most well known for his extremely mind-numbing 7-round drafts and his weird obsession with like round 3-7 guys as though there's a huge arbitrage opportunity that's he's somehow going to spot more than anyone else. The first tell if a draft guy is full of poo poo is if they're more focused on the picks and draft itself than talking about prospects. The second tell is if the guy is constantly trying to shovel attention at minor prospects because they can't see what's actually good/bad with the elite ones and need to be able to talk about something obvious. Somehow, he's been a consistently horrible QB evaluator despite seemingly prioritizing the same things most modern QB evals want. Another dude where he seems decent but just deeply overmatched and focused on the wrong things--though he arguably does a better job of being McShay than McShay at this point. 3 draft stars out of 5 The CBS guys: Edwards, Wilson, Trapasso--While ESPN keeps playing the hits, most of the others have started throwing money at modernizing their draft coverage, which has generally been a boon. These guys have a pretty healthy view of most prospects, and they tend to share bylines, which means I think some of the nuclear takes probably get moderated. They tend to overrate competition level at points (there's not really much difference between P5 leagues for draft projects), but I do appreciate that they have a healthy skepticism of the physical freaks who haven't produced versus the ones who have. If you check their board now for example, Thibs is one, while Ojabo is 46. That's not to say Ojabo can't be good--it's just a healthy illustration of risk comparatively. If I'm pointing to a weakness, they tend to be fairly fawning in their individual prospect profiles, usually Trapasso but not always, and they rely on counting stats to some extent with DBs which happens a lot since the ideal DB should essentially record no stats if they've not being thrown at. 4 draft stars out of 5. Bleacher Report: Tice, Thorn, Klassen, Giddings, Sobleski--Maybe the most night/day shift in coverage over the years. Matt Miller loved to post weird hot takes and what ifs that won't happen because most of his takes were about like "WHAT IF THIS 3RD ROUND TRADE HAPPENED AND BOTH WERE PRO BOWLERS" or like odd takes about how this QB is so limitless if only he had every actually shown it. Tice is a legitimately good QB eval guy, though I think he drastically overestimates "Pro Readiness" to be in terms of systems at times. He has a POV that's legitimately interesting though, because he won't elevate every dude as though they could change a franchise which is refreshing . Thorn and Klassen are the underrated stars of Draft Twitter now. They've got a more coherent view of line play than anyone out there, and their ability to project T vs IOL and understand the nuances of what's on tape is essentially unparalleled for coverage now. If I'm pointing to a weakness, they kept Matt Miller's stupid number system that tries to quantify prospect quality on a 10.0-3.0 scale which always hurts my head to see on the page. 4 draft stars out of 5 The Athletic--What people think Kiper is, Bob McGinn actually is. If you like reading the palace intrigue/team eval side with less smoke screens that ESPN/mainstream draft twitter, Bob has a better filter on it than 90% of draftniks. The rest of the athletic coverage has been all over the place from what I've read. Dane Bugler has been a fixture for a while and does some okay mock work but generally has a very "5 things from the senior bowl" type POV that falls a bit flat next to someone like a McGinn. I think a bunch of his player evals are rooted in a desire to be either full conventional wisdom or contrarian with zero in-between. I haven't read many of the other guys here, but I have to assume they're a bit closer to the teams than most places, albeit the prospect evals probably suffer from homerisms as a result. Still worth checking out. 5 draft stars out of 5. Editor's note: Bob McGinn has left the Athletic but is still really good. Consider the Athletic if you want a non-terrible web interface/team specific coverage. The Ringer--Danny Kelly generally understands player types and tendencies very well when he looks to make player comparisons or projections. You can tell exactly where his editors get mad and make him make a player comp or tease some nuance out of a comparison, and you can also tell exactly where he's under editorial mandate to hype some QBs or edge guys to get page clicks. He usually overrates QBs/Edges/WRs/CBs, again largely for clicks, but the actual content of the breakdowns usually isn't wrong, just with a clear bend on how he would build a team. Easily the best interface of any of these sites right now. I get the feeling if they added some bodies, they could legitimately have a decent operation if they had someone to temper Danny's valuations a touch. 3 stars out of 5. NFL.com--Jesus. Chad Reuter is a hack, but I don't know what anyone expects. He loves his mocks and trades and will frequently bump prospects around to make mock draft choices seem less insane. He's a guy who has drastically overcorrected for the Josh Allen/Mahomes hits and is doing things like "Malik Willis QB1" now, on top of pumping the cinderella/narrative stories like Hutchison. Safely ignore. 1 star out of 5 Yahoo--The lukewarmest operation out there. They occupy the space BR used to of essentially aggregating opinions and reading tea leaves. They've done essentially no coverage so far this year, so may be shuttering a bit, but they're mainly only useful as a composite of sorts that reads like how the average person would synthesize other places--not bad, just not particularly insightful. TheGreyGhost fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 18:43
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Chucktesla posted:Not a lot of run blocking going on at Mississippi state so it's easy to see people be wary of a guy who just pass blocks against three and four man rushes 40 times a game In fairness, he's doing a lot of that without help, since MS State runs insanely wide splits that essentially make every block man to man. Yes, we have zero idea if he can run block at all, but he's got a better pass set/carry than pretty much anyone just off of the reps, albeit he does it out of 2-point a bunch so you may be worried about if he can do it out of 3 (he should be athletic enough to pull it off). Neal is just such a physical specimen that if it weren't for Faalele, we wouldn't stop hearing about how big and fast he is at that size (even though he's only played T for a year). One thing to remember to is "what happens if x busts". If Neal busts, he could probably still play G and be a road grader. If Cross busts...what do you even do with a guy who can't run block? There's a salvage value to every prospect.
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Feb 15, 2022 18:46
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I will not stand for this walter football erasure
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Feb 15, 2022 19:08
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GreyGhost, do you have any opinions on Connor Rogers? He does some work with Bleacher Report (and used to be on the Stick to Football pod with Miller), and is currently doing what I think is a pretty good PFF pod with Trevor Sikkema ("NFL Draft Stock Exchange"). I'm kind of overexposed to him because he's a Jets fan/a Jets twitter fixture, but I usually really enjoy/trust his draft takes and I want to know if that's an opinion smart people share outside of the Jets bubble. Or if I'm just super biased. Also do you have any thoughts on The Draft Network? I used to like their stuff a fair amount, but a bunch of their top people (Solak, Sikkema, Reid, etc.) left, and it feels like it's gone way downhill.
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Feb 15, 2022 19:14
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Unfortunately Bob Mcginn left The Athletic to join up with Tyler Dunne on his website. They met on the Packers beat ages ago.
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Feb 15, 2022 19:52
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TheGreyGhost posted:If you want a rough idea of where I sit on a bunch of these dudes, BR somehow has the most reasonable list of those--which feels insane to say. It's kind of amazing how much better their coverage has been since they shitcanned Matt Miller and hired a new department, though that's not saying much since Miller is essentially just Todd McShay for a digital era. If you average their coverage with what you get out of an old stalwart like ESPN that still toes the line about "prototypes" and whatever else, you can actually get a healthy/semi-complete birdseye view. I'd say for the first 25 names on the list, that's pretty accurate. They're way too high on Olave and way too This is legit a valuable effort post. I will now exclusively look at BR, the athletic, and of course TGG’s post history
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Feb 15, 2022 19:54
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