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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
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Comrade Koba
Jul 2, 2007

lmao, big UIGHUR GENOCIDE hit piece being pushed by the largest national tabloid today

did you know the number of innocent victims kept in horrific ccp death camps is now up to three million?

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Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Al-Saqr posted:

why is anyone surprised that chiang Kai sheks son would run for office? this happens all the time.

I don't think it's surprise as much as "hey look at this amusing thing in China". Which this thread has been lacking in, because of this stupid invasion scaremongering that just won't stop.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

sexpig by night posted:

No, this int about more wealth. Its about cronies unable to access their castles due to sanctions. They paid millions and cant access the property. Second is Putin loves to be a chessmaster, its a meme how he hates to deal with Rusdian internal isdues such as rabid dogs attacking a child or even grown man (a real thing that ru internal news talk a lot about) but is giddy moving pieces around the map

lmfao

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Frosted Flake posted:

But still, if you must report me, remember that I’m bravely standing against covid and heroically divulged my identity. Please send all complaints to HQ BTY, CFAS, GAGETOWN, NB. Hold the Line, Honk Honk, etc.

The real hilarious poo poo is proposals like using Iron Dome and CRAM so that enemy artillery can just be ignored. This came about because at a certain point they gave up on trying to find Taliban mortars so, much like covid, they looked for ways To Live With The Shelling. I read a bunch of Max Boot rear end papers about how because the CRAM radar can track and engage x shells a minute, as long as we had enough we’d be invincible. Even more after the hype for Iron Dome. Okay, so ignore for a minute it’s not 100% reliable or effective, then scale up for all the troops you’d need to protect in a conventional heavy NATO formation, scale up again for the size of the threat and the “plan” would cost…

Keep in mind Russian 122mm and 152mm shells cost between $200-400 CAD. I think a 122mm Grad rocket is fairly cheap but rockets aren’t my thing. I used to have exact prices of shells from their export catalogues but that I probably can’t shitpost.

So, we thumb through Publicly available NATO articles on contemporary Russian artillery doctrine, and we see the problem - that’s a lot of shells and rockets!

Unit cost for the land based Phalanx is ~$7M CAD, Iron Dome costs ~$63M CAD for a battery, per-interception cost is ~$190K per interception. Iron Dome needs to be reloaded after every 20 shots, which apparently takes a long time and is a source of embarrassment for the Israelis in the same way the Gulf War revealed Patriots take forever and a day to reload.

Without trying to crunch the numbers on the rate of fire of a gun artillery battery, a single Grad launcher has 40 tubes, so a battery of equivalent strength can quite literally just overwhelm any single Iron Dome Battery or CRAM, both would be dry while more than half the rounds were still in the air. That’s ignoring modernized launchers with more tubes, that some batteries have 6 launchers, and the Russians often fire by Battalion.

That’s not even getting into the Iron Dome or CRAM radars being able to track and engage that many targets, which I doubt and has never been established to match Israeli claims, and the rate of fire for the Grad being several times higher than Iron Done. Iron Dome would cost $3.8M CAD per 20 rockets fired at it.

Do you see what I mean? NATO has leaned so heavily on throwing money and technology at problems that we have papers being put out that propose spending millions of dollars to still get shelled, while claiming that constitutes invulnerability to the point where enemy shelling no longer has to be planned around. Just sign the country over to Rafael if that’s what you’re proposing because I gave up on trying to calculate costs for this post.

How did we get here? Because CRAM worked successfully on an extremely limited scale in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Iron Dome has also partially worked on an even more limited scale in Israel. Because people are unable to differentiate in their approach to Russia from that, it creates this broken thinking. It’s a sickness, really. Russia is just the GWOT but bigger, so we don’t need to change anything, just do more. This is weird Natsec Atlantic Council thinking because it doesn’t account for any military reality, only a change in setting.

It’s like - and I don’t know how to communicate this - these NATO hawks, at least the ones writing papers - literally can’t conceive of NATO troops being shelled. They know “NATO Must Confront Russia” but when they envision it, it’s no different from “ISAF Must Confront The Taliban” so they just transpose all of it.

They write papers on the Russian military, but none of their proposals suggest we change anything in response to that, if that makes sense. Like when Brown Moses counts Russian tanks in a Motor Rifle Regiment, I genuinely don’t think he sees them as something that threatens NATO. He sees targets for NATO airstrikes in the same way he counted tanks in Syria. It just means more sorties for F-35’s to fly unopposed, just like a massive Russian artillery park just means we “simply” need more Iron Domes.

So yeah, that’s a lot of words to say I’ve had to keep up with some of this stuff, and there’s this… gap? Maybe? Between evaluation and response, and I can see how it shapes the conversation, but I have no idea what the gently caress is going on in there. The Doctrine Papers don’t make sense, the Policy Papers don’t make sense, and whatever is causing that disconnect, where the first half is a reasonable evaluation of the situation and the second half is fantasyland poo poo, that is going to be a big problem because it shows that there’s this thing getting in the way of decision making.


It's really heartening to hear that NATO militaries have self selected into being useless against a peer enemy thanks to capitalism

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Comrade Koba posted:

lmao, big UIGHUR GENOCIDE hit piece being pushed by the largest national tabloid today

did you know the number of innocent victims kept in horrific ccp death camps is now up to three million?

Lol isn't that more than the entire uighur population?

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Comrade Koba posted:

lmao, big UIGHUR GENOCIDE hit piece being pushed by the largest national tabloid today

did you know the number of innocent victims kept in horrific ccp death camps is now up to three million?

if you can't see them that proves they're there!

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLpgY6AGUls

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Lol isn't that more than the entire uighur population?

The Uighur population of Xinjiang is about 12 million. If 1/4 of your population disappears, then people are gonna notice.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020


The best KMT can do nowadays is picking up some local mayor wins.

If Tsai let that Health minister to run for taipei mayor for DPP, failgrandson has a decent chance.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

The Uighur population of Xinjiang is about 12 million. If 1/4 of your population disappears, then people are gonna notice.

yea it's actually a way crazier lie than 'that's impossible'. If you give an obviously fake number you can make an excuse for it but claiming a loving quarter of people in a province have vanished is something that literally is impossible to hide

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

The more I think about it, the problem seems to be this:

Israel can afford all of these Iron Dome launchers and reloads to deal with an artillery threat because it’s not their money, and ideologically they aren’t required to accurately evaluate the threat or the effectiveness of Iron Dome. It costs a tonne of money, it doesn’t work that well, all it’s being asked to engage is sporadic firing of a handful of trash rockets. Doesn’t matter, it will be reported as 100% effective against an overwhelming threat, and again, that may be a poor justification for the cost, but Iron Dome exists in a world where money doesn’t exist. Does that seem about right?

Similarly - Trophy. For those that don’t know, Trophy is an Active Protection System, also by Israel’s Rafael. The idea is the same kind of invincibility through technology no matter what the cost (or real effectiveness) thing. It’s a very complicated and expensive unit that uses sensors to detect rockets or shells fired at an armoured vehicle and shoot them down. Again, it’s been reported as 100% effective against an overwhelming threat, but again it costs hundreds of times more than the antiquated RPG rockets it’s shot down, there’s no evidence that it would work it a real conventional high threat environment.
And again the USMC trialed them on Abrams, the Army on Abrams and Bradleys, based on that idea that this is something you can just scale up, and it failed trials.

The idea that you can just spend your way to invincibility through technology, again, it’s like all defence thinking is focussed on Israel as the example, but Israel is able to do stupid poo poo because it’s not their money, so cost is no issue, and has, I don’t know if you’d call it permission, but wildly over reports the threat and the effectiveness of the solution and it’s never examined. It’s taken at face value and enters the Defence lexicon. So the effectiveness of technology is detached from reality, and cost is not even a consideration, does that make sense?

Rather than idk not giving billions to Rafael so Israel has never met a military problem it can’t buy a technology to sort-of-but-not-really-solve, there’s this pervasive thought that that’s the perfected approach.

I’ll give you an example: I was at a Canadian trial of the Tavor. Not as a C7 replacement, but IMI wanted to do a demo for our brass. The whole lead up was that this is the perfect small art. Israel is brilliant, look at their technology, wow it’s the rifle of the future. This is what a rifle should be, because it’s what the Israelis use, and it’s new, technology sophisticated (and expensive).

It’s… fine. Honestly, it’s alright. It’s not trash, but… that was my first inkling that there’s this… idk gap.

It was an adequate rifle that I thought was comparable to the C7. Now we had heard that oh wow Israel replaced all their M16s and M4s with Tavors, and I went from thinking “oh okay, that must mean its so much better” to understanding that because money is no object to them, they can do things like replace their entire inventory of service rifles with a new one. It doesn’t matter if it’s better - it’s branded as technologically sophisticated and modern. If Israel uses it and it’s technologically sophisticated and modern, everyone will treat it as being an incredible advancement, because that would justify the cost, but as the cost was never theirs to bear, the whole calculation is off.

It’s off and yet so much thinking is based around that.

I’m sure there’s more at work here that I’m missing, but nearly every mention of UAVs in a professional publication I have read lately mentions Israel - despite them operating in an environment with no threats and unlimited funds. The proposal that Canada adopt the Spike ATGM was based on Israel - despite them operating in an environment with no threats and unlimited funds. We were looking at 120mm mortars and the reaction was that we were stupid and/or crazy when the Finnish Tampella seemed much better than the Israeli Soltam, or even that we had considered anything but the Israeli offering.

I don’t think this is an Israel Lobby/Zionism thing, maybe it’s just that everybody has bought into all these myths about Israel since 1973 and ignored the 2006 invasion of Lebanon?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

You really have to be a special kind of idiot to think that a gay avatar is some sort of own in
CSPAM. Like, you know there is a megathread called "Cum warriors" on the front page, right?

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1494419711618080782?s=20&t=xclJUNixLKL8EJ5PtRNWOA
https://twitter.com/LouisJMarinelli/status/1494426844778663944?s=20&t=xclJUNixLKL8EJ5PtRNWOA

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

sexpig by night posted:

yea it's actually a way crazier lie than 'that's impossible'. If you give an obviously fake number you can make an excuse for it but claiming a loving quarter of people in a province have vanished is something that literally is impossible to hide

yea but it doesn't matter. No one is fact checking these claims, there are no consequences for false reporting. It's just part of the carpet bombing of false information whose only purpose to to make people think "eew evil Chinese".

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


imagining a french medieval general berating italian mercenaries: "you got the serrated steel crossbow bolt tips?! they don't even do anything!"

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008


sounds not good.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
holy poo poo don’t tell me america is literally going to force the Ukrainians to pull a Saakashvili and make them do something insanely stupid to drag Russia into a war.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Frosted Flake posted:

Similarly - Trophy. For those that don’t know, Trophy is an Active Protection System, also by Israel’s Rafael. The idea is the same kind of invincibility through technology no matter what the cost (or real effectiveness) thing. It’s a very complicated and expensive unit that uses sensors to detect rockets or shells fired at an armoured vehicle and shoot them down. Again, it’s been reported as 100% effective against an overwhelming threat, but again it costs hundreds of times more than the antiquated RPG rockets it’s shot down, there’s no evidence that it would work it a real conventional high threat environment.
And again the USMC trialed them on Abrams, the Army on Abrams and Bradleys, based on that idea that this is something you can just scale up, and it failed trials.

From my understanding, the other big problem with active defense systems is it makes it impossible to move with supporting infantry. Bursting an RPG or ATGM in mid-air turns it into an antipersonnel weapon. The only way to effectively use it is in a standoff position where you're a kilometer or two away from the enemy - which is enough distance for the APS to track and neutralize incoming fire. It can also just be overwhelmed by multiple coordinated attacks.

I noticed these problems during the last Gaza war, because despite the alleged invincibility of the Merkava they were too afraid to bring them close to Hamas ATGM teams - so there was never a real possibility of them invading Gaza again like they did before.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 23:15 on Feb 17, 2022

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Just the trophy system itself firing is going to hit the infantry near the tank.

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

Al-Saqr posted:

holy poo poo don’t tell me america is literally going to force the Ukrainians to pull a Saakashvili and make them do something insanely stupid to drag Russia into a war.

the line now is that Saakashvili did nothing wrong
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1493991852684595206?s=20&t=xclJUNixLKL8EJ5PtRNWOA
https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1491445374409588737?s=20&t=xclJUNixLKL8EJ5PtRNWOA
https://twitter.com/achkhikvadze/status/1492552104128434185?s=20&t=xclJUNixLKL8EJ5PtRNWOA

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Frosted Flake posted:

I don’t think this is an Israel Lobby/Zionism thing, maybe it’s just that everybody has bought into all these myths about Israel since 1973 and ignored the 2006 invasion of Lebanon?

It has more to do with Israel's status as a laboratory of colonialism. We keep adopting Israeli-designed platforms because they were made with anti-insurgency work in mind. They're meant to be used by a military that primarily operates as an occupying police force. The United States dumps tons of R&D funding into Israeli weapons firms for this purpose, and that feeds back into the First World buying up Israeli designs of questionable utility.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

The other thing I considered is that every old publication I read evaluating the Soviets, or new ones built on those to evaluate the Russians used the Arab-Israeli Wars as the basis of knowledge for Soviet Tactics, Doctrine, Organization and Effectiveness, every comparison of hardware as well. Canadian Centurions would perform X well against facing DDR T-55s because Israeli Centurions had been Y effective against the Syrians.

It’s entirely possible that looking at Israel as The Western Military engaged in combat against The Enemy that gives us Combat Experience because nothing is happening in the Fulda Gap, that’s just carried over into now.

More importantly,

Did we goad the Ukrainians into acting like Georgia?

That would explain what’s going on now, predictions about the date and the extremely dark and suspicious stuff about Russian disinformation purporting to show Ukrainian troops on the attack, as well as war crimes and mass graves.

Jeff Fatwood
Jun 17, 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uD84dG-JAY

lol

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
How is it strawmanning? I've openly demonstrated that Nazis being involved in this conflict is a both sides issue, and doesn't even begin to address anything with Russia's demands other than trying to legitimize Russian action as "necessary" because "Here be Nazis" as if the Azov Battalion represents the entirety of Ukraine.

Otherwise, why are you bringing up the Azov Battalion? What does knowing they are present demonstrate in regards to the threat of Invasion? I seriously want to know, that's not rhetorical.

(USER WAS MADE MODERATOR FOR THIS POST)

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008


That's some bad CGI for 2017.

Edit: Holy poo poo those are some Starship Troopers effects.

thatfatkid
Feb 20, 2011

by Azathoth

Cpt_Obvious posted:

You really have to be a special kind of idiot to think that a gay avatar is some sort of own in
CSPAM. Like, you know there is a megathread called "Cum warriors" on the front page, right?

Im more annoyed that oval office got rid of my sick Mao av

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

thatfatkid posted:

Im more annoyed that oval office got rid of my sick Mao av

Your next one should be this handsome young man.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


oh my god lol

Fleetwood
Mar 26, 2010


biggest hochul head in china

Cao Ni Ma posted:

Motherfuckers are making their own false flag operations and trying to crib them as russian ones lol

lol it's so blatant

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


it's a false false false false false false false flag!!!!

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Fly Molo posted:

How is it strawmanning? I've openly demonstrated that Nazis being involved in this conflict is a both sides issue, and doesn't even begin to address anything with Russia's demands other than trying to legitimize Russian action as "necessary" because "Here be Nazis" as if the Azov Battalion represents the entirety of Ukraine.

Otherwise, why are you bringing up the Azov Battalion? What does knowing they are present demonstrate in regards to the threat of Invasion? I seriously want to know, that's not rhetorical.

(USER WAS MADE MODERATOR FOR THIS POST)

The difference is it's impossible to conceive of a Nazi coup in the Kremlin, but Kiev is on extremely shaky ground and could get overthrown at any moment. The more you pump weapons and money into these stay behind networks, the weaker the government gets.

thatfatkid
Feb 20, 2011

by Azathoth

AnimeIsTrash posted:

Your next one should be this handsome young man.



I like the way you think

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013


This is worse quality animation than what Dahir Insaat would come up with.

Fleetwood
Mar 26, 2010


biggest hochul head in china

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

That's because "Judeo-Christian values" are bourgeois values. They barely even conceal it. Even the Evangelicals whose greatest desire is to bring the apocalypse to Israel also worship money higher than God, and think you can do business with Jews. It's the Muslims who can't be trusted, because they're so inscrutable and have all these inconvenient prohibitions against usury. Yuck. The Chinese are a threat because they're better at managing capital than we are, which throws a wrench into the whole world order led by the Washington Consensus.

At this point there's no possibility for an Abrahamic pivot against China, because we've done way too much damage in the Muslim world. Iran and Pakistan are both dependent on China, and Afghanistan likely will be too while we starve the whole country to death. For the Middle East its our relationship with Israel that prevents any broader coalition even in spite of Arab leadership, which is even a problem for Turkey despite Erdogan's attempts before at detante with Tel-Aviv.

drat

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

The difference is it's impossible to conceive of a Nazi coup in the Kremlin, but Kiev is on extremely shaky ground and could get overthrown at any moment. The more you pump weapons and money into these stay behind networks, the weaker the government gets.

if you were zelensky what would you do? i'd probably be starting a quiet life in the sleepy suburbs of reston virginia by now

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

The difference is it's impossible to conceive of a Nazi coup in the Kremlin, but Kiev is on extremely shaky ground and could get overthrown at any moment. The more you pump weapons and money into these stay behind networks, the weaker the government gets.

well if there’s one thing the US loves, it’s funding and arming stay behind networks full of nazis

surely they haven’t spend the last 70 years planting and watering the seeds of fascism all over the world

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

i say swears online posted:

if you were zelensky what would you do? i'd probably be starting a quiet life in the sleepy suburbs of reston virginia by now

King. Michael’s. Coup.

Zelensky could be a world historic figure.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

It really is their only option for a future, but Zelensky has several options for his future.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

lol i just read that romania gave michael back a few royal properties in the last couple decades. rip, got an award from stalin and was exiled two years later because he couldn't stop monarching

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Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021

And after all that they can dump it on the Indian armed forces for more money.

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