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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Buffer posted:It didn't even take a minute for someone to chime in with: Again, that has nothing to do with the statement I quoted. My wife is immunocompromised, too. Take a break or do something else besides having some different conversation in your head and posting at people about it.
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Feb 19, 2022 17:20
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Tiny Timbs posted:Again, that has nothing to do with the statement I quoted. Ok. Well, thanks for the backseat modding and accusation of insanity. Really moves a conversation forward.
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Feb 19, 2022 17:28
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Craptacular! posted:China’s “back to normal” works because their definition of normal was always Orwellian. Lord take my soul. Idk, man. I'm fine with people eating up propaganda. It's going to happen. I just get upset when people eat up propaganda that serves no good purpose. What national interest is served by deliberately misunderstanding a great powers adversary, if we are to take the inevitability of great powers conflict at face value? UCS Hellmaker posted:Yeah you absolutely can get both, delta and omicron can coexist since one tends to be uri first and the other likes to be a lri. It's rare, but absolutely you can get a double infection In your experience, are those double infections any different from typical cov2 infections, if you've seen any? Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 17:35
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Buffer posted:Ok. Well, thanks for the backseat modding and accusation of insanity. Really moves a conversation forward. I didn't accuse you of insanity. I accused you of not engaging with people in this thread in order to have the kind of conversation you want rather than the one that is actually happening. That makes it pretty difficult to keep responding to the points you make. I only suggested you take a break because you brought it up in the first place.
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Feb 19, 2022 17:36
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VitalSigns posted:We've reached the endpoint of free market capitalist ideology: rationalizing a Megadeath in the US alone as good news because stopping the virus would have been worse I mean... here's the thing, is it's not really up to me what is "good" for a nation of 330,000,000 people. I was fine staying inside. But it was obvious by late April of 2020 that a lot of people weren't, and they were not going to stay isolated or indoors. In the western conception of civil liberties - and, in particular, the American conception of an armed populace - it was not practical to force people inside or restrict their travel. It would have quickly led to extreme civil unrest, which would've been deleterious to zero-spread quarantines anyway. And people didn't just leave their houses to make "number go up" or "gently caress and suck at Applebee's." They did it because they really wanted to. And some of what they did was great - I mean, the summer of 2020 featured large groups of young people, leftists and anti-racists having large gatherings in the street. I think most of us appreciated it. That would not be allowed in China, or in any country that was attempting to enforce Zero Covid. Like, for whatever set of reasons, it was very very important to Westerners that they be able to continue their lives as close to normal as possible, and it is also very very important to Westerners, politically, that they have the right to do so. When you say "the US should've done what China did" - well, it couldn't have. It was literally impossible. The practical effect of a hard lockdown is, theoretically, is "listen - you have to stay inside, we are not loving kidding, you will be arrested if you come outside". But the symbolic effect in the US would've been, "your rights have been taken away, and can be taken away whenever the government decides it's really important to do so." I think it's pretty obvious at this point that that idea makes Americans lose their god drat minds. This isn't because of any racial characteristics (Jesus Christ), it's because Americans spent their entire lives drenched in an ideology that tells you that you can make whatever decision you want to and have the means to, and it's not your responsibility to think about other people. Your Choice. Now, I think it's also pretty obvious that this is, in fact, a gigantic weakness in western culture! But there's not anything our current leaders could've done - this die was basically cast before they were even born. This ideology has obviously been costing us in a lot of ways, even before Covid. It ensures the continuance of poverty and untreated disease and ignorance. It's going to take a long time to undo the damage and how to figure out how to reconcile the good parts of our culture, the parts that have led to an astonishing flourish of culture and technological innovation, with the bad parts. (It may never happen.) China, likewise, deserves credit for its successes. It is unambiguously a victory for their system of government that it was able to contain this disease. But they, too, have their own cultural sicknesses, and they, too, will need a long time to figure out how to reconcile the strengths of their culture - such as a high valuation of empiricism and an appreciation of collective action - with the bad. (It may never happen.) This isn't a matter of "US good" and "China bad" or vice versa. It's simply an acknowledgement that China's covid policy could not have been put into effect in the US, any more than you could freeze water in an oven. This is a natural disaster that one society was ready to deal with, and one was not.
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Feb 19, 2022 17:42
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Mellow Seas posted:I mean... here's the thing, is it's not really up to me what is "good" for a nation of 330,000,000 people. I was fine staying inside. But it was obvious by late April of 2020 that a lot of people weren't, and they were not going to stay isolated or indoors. I think the underlined part is where a lot of people - myself included - hit the brakes on the comparative conversation and call the match. Americans were broadly more willing to put themselves ahead of public health than the example counterpart. The rest is interesting, sure, but in my qualitative way of seeing the health of a society's soul, the damnation of the United States as a people starts and stops there.
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Feb 19, 2022 17:46
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Potato Salad posted:Americans were generally more willing to put themselves ahead of public health. The rest is interesting, sure, but the damnation of the United States as a people starts and stops there. Fair enough! The point is, we were damned not by an lone decision that we made ("gently caress public health") as much as the entire structure and value system of our society, which made that decision inevitable. Like climate change, covid exposes a way in which our society is a complete failure. And we are gonna keep getting our asses kicked until our society either crumbles or changes. And I mean, we are the kind of people who are willing to acknowledge that that value system is basically a historical accident, instilled in us partly by Renaissance philosophy but mostly for somebody else's profit. Imagine how upsetting this is for somebody who thought it was the ultimate truth handed down to George Washington on Mount Vernon by God himself. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 17:47
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Mellow Seas posted:
If covid had black death or smallpox mortality rates (30-80%) then the risk assessment would have come out different and a lot more NPI's would have become possible because it would no longer have been 'convenience versus pandemic control' but 'convenience versus my death personally' for a lot of people. Our response was a function of the effect of the disease. Since the number of people who died were relatively few compared to the overall population, and the effects were concentrated in groups of people that are judged to have lesser or near zero value in our culture anyway (the working class, people of color, people with medical issues, etc), the response was always going to be what it was. Which is different from rationalizing any other response as totalitarian dystopia or what have you.
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Feb 19, 2022 18:06
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The "but china did it this way and that way was impossible in the west" argument is so tired. It's an exercise in alternative reality creation fantasy that reinforces the idea that the only time strong or new public health measures can be taken was sometime in the past and that we should not bother even imagining what we can do now. Every single day we head forward into the future without addressing the new and permanent roommate that we and all of our future generations will live with is a failure to address reality. We overcommitted to the belief that a magical vaccine could do it all and nothing else was required for public health and safety. We need to let that go. China, to its credit has not done this. Public air quality monitors, HVAC standards for bars, gyms, and restaurants, formal public sewage testing programs, permanent guidance around when people should mask or be required to mask, a global sampling network that targets animal reserves like we already have for flu, yearly vaccines, labor work standards focused on limiting crowding, paid sick leave, and improving ventilation, etc etc. These are polices we choose not to enact every day and people are and will continue to die as a result. There is no "back to normal". There is only "a new normal that we have created, based on what we have learned and accepted." Unfortunately I think it's going to take another three+ more years of anguish and death from covid cycles and variants before we come to accept that we can't go back, but will have to choose to live in the world as it exists. El Mero Mero fucked around with this message at 19:49 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 19:05
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Mellow Seas posted:Imagine how upsetting this is for somebody who thought it was the ultimate truth handed down to George Washington on Mount Vernon by God himself.
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Feb 19, 2022 19:42
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Potato Salad posted:Lord take my soul. Here's the thing: I think the reach China exhibits on the public in the best of times is oppressive, though sure I give them goodwill for applying the power of that reach to stopping the spread of COVID. But if you could beat COVID by shooting guns and launching bombs at poorer countries, we'd be #1 in the world at stopping COVID, and if other people in Canada and Finland and whatever asked why they can't follow the power of our example I'd tell them that we're just doing what we always do and it just happens to be very effective. What China does when there's no pandemic going on makes them well equipped to handle crises like this. If you wanted me to be a REAL dipshit, I'd say something like "well China also keeps a literal concentration camp of Muslims should we do that too huh?" I could even tell you the tales of actual Chinese people excusing the concentration camp as a day club for people who are just so inherently uncivilized and barbarous that they'd all be off committing terrorisms all over the place if China wasn't keeping them fenced into this wonderful facility where they're getting better treatment than they would on their own, thank you. But that poo poo isn't relevant at all so to bring it up would be playing on sinophobia with irrelevant strawmen. It astounds me that the very same people who are first to jump to the understanding that criticizing the policies of the Israeli state is not anti-Semite activity so routinely confuse criticism of the CCP as some sort of attack on Asian identity, culture, etc. It's like people elevate the CCP to the same level as Confucius. El Mero Mero posted:The "but china did it this way and that way was impossible in the west" argument is so tired. Craptacular! fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 19:47
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El Mero Mero posted:The "but china did it this way and that way was impossible in the west" argument is so tired. The world doesn't consist exclusively of "China" and "The West", and the virus doesn't only infect humans.
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Feb 19, 2022 19:53
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Rust Martialis posted:The world doesn't consist exclusively of "China" and "The West", and the virus doesn't only infect humans. What's your point?
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Feb 19, 2022 20:05
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Potato Salad posted:In your experience, are those double infections any different from typical cov2 infections, if you've seen any? Personally I haven't seen any myself, but we know from other viral infections that it does occur and it's been in a few research studies as being observed. Logically it's a possibility and if given the right circumstances something you could see. best example will be the flu where we have documented knowledge that it occurs and mainly is what enables the intermixing of zoomatic and human flu viruses where they exchange DNA.
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Feb 19, 2022 20:09
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Craptacular! posted:
In broad strokes, I get you. I don't even think I disagree with you anywhere. From my perspective, the ways in which the Chinese state is draconian is.... kinda irrelevant for covid. The differences that allowed zero covid policy to work in China has to do with the civic mindedness of the people. Yes, that's a civic mindedness fostered by the state; I know the two aren't inseparable. I just see their success not as a credit to draconian states, but rather a victory for societies that place emphasis on service to the public welfare. Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 20:11
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Mellow Seas posted:Fair enough! This was a great set of posts. I think I largely agree with you, thank you for articulating it this well. It's frustrating from a certain perspective that we likely can't solve certain issues because there will never be a voluntary commitment to doing so and there's no appetite to force it, but welp.
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Feb 19, 2022 20:52
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Potato Salad posted:In broad strokes, I get you. I don't even think I disagree with you anywhere. I don't think there's a mythical 'civic-mindedness' that the Chinese people have that's unique.
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Feb 19, 2022 20:56
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I wouldn't be surprised if the correlation ends up being less "authoritarian" versus "liberal democracy" or whatever, and more "country had to or didn't have to take serious steps to stamp out SARS-1". Or maybe that it's going to be muddy because there's a split between being authoritarian and not willing to take the authoritarian steps to contain spread and other countries which aren't considered authoritarian but are willing to do those things. Australia and NZ did a fantastic job for a long time and are mega capitalist. States that are considered "authoritarian" to varying degrees such as Russia and India also bungled it horribly. It's not like just lying about spread and suppressing death numbers is an impulse restricted by the structure of a national constitution This is just my gut feeling though, it's gonna be hard to do a sweeping nation-level comparison before we get solid extra deaths figures
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Feb 19, 2022 21:06
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Buffer posted:Now doing something would've required maybe "authoritarian" measures, but they would've been far more temporary than the disruption that's already ensued and the resulting cost in lives, and economic activity. In hindsight that was absolutely the correct course of action. The failure (re: why we are dealing with covid) was in a lack of response. Do you disagree with this?
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Feb 19, 2022 21:35
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The American public has been conditioned by entertainment to think that in terms of extreme health emergencies, you can indeed quarantine an entire city with military checkpoints at the roads going in and out of them. Most people would probably immediately say, “like a zombie apocalypse movie” when you suggest such a thing. You could possibly convince a plurality of Americans that such steps were necessary in the early stages of the pandemic. However movies are not exactly very well accustomed to the system of federalism and how government works, and for that matter neither was the very special boy serving as head of state at the time. Even if you shut down all air travel to the necessary cities (Seattle, Los Angeles, New York) and put blockades around cities, you would need the governors of WA/CA/NY to commit their National Guard troops to it, and you would need a President who wasn’t more concerned about election year optics.
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Feb 19, 2022 22:37
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Epic High Five posted:Australia and NZ did a fantastic job for a long time and are mega capitalist. States that are considered "authoritarian" to varying degrees such as Russia and India also bungled it horribly. It's not like just lying about spread and suppressing death numbers is an impulse restricted by the structure of a national constitution They're both island nations with no land borders and substantial bodies of water separating them from the rest of the world, and AUSNZ international airports are also fairly isolated from regular through traffic (meaning you don't generally change planes in Australia or NZ en route to other countries). All those factors made it much, much easier to shut off/tighten controls on entry than it was for almost everyone else, authoritarian or not. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that there's more factors at work here. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 22:44
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El Mero Mero posted:Public air quality monitors, HVAC standards for bars, gyms, and restaurants, formal public sewage testing programs, permanent guidance around when people should mask or be required to mask, a global sampling network that targets animal reserves like we already have for flu, yearly vaccines, labor work standards focused on limiting crowding, paid sick leave, and improving ventilation, etc etc. These are polices we choose not to enact every day and people are and will continue to die as a result. There is no "back to normal". There is only "a new normal that we have created, based on what we have learned and accepted." Why do you think this is the future, and not a future where endemic COVID isn't any worse than the annual flu? Honest question. This is the first I've seen this version of the future of endemic COVID.
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Feb 19, 2022 23:08
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werdnam posted:Why do you think this is the future, and not a future where endemic COVID isn't any worse than the annual flu? Honest question. This is the first I've seen this version of the future of endemic COVID.
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Feb 19, 2022 23:30
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:They're both island nations with no land borders and substantial bodies of water separating them from the rest of the world, and AUSNZ international airports are also fairly isolated from regular through traffic (meaning you don't generally change planes in Australia or NZ en route to other countries). All those factors made it much, much easier to shut off/tighten controls on entry than it was for almost everyone else, authoritarian or not. I think Aus/NZ's isolation also made hard border closures more politically palatable. Australians are used to flying for 15+ hours to reach another Western country, we're used to strict biosecurity laws upon return to the country, we're already in the mental headspace of being far away from everyone else and being able to pull up the drawbridge if something bad happens. And the fact that it pretty immediately paid dividends for most of the country, while the rest of the world was still gripped by COVID and its associated restrictions and disruptions, only cemented the popularity of that decision. I remember when they closed the borders just to China in February I thought it was an insane overreaction, especially since it was right before the school year started and our university sector is kept afloat by international students mostly from China. One month later when they closed the borders to everybody it was like "loving hell about time."
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Feb 20, 2022 00:16
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werdnam posted:Why do you think this is the future, and not a future where endemic COVID isn't any worse than the annual flu? Honest question. This is the first I've seen this version of the future of endemic COVID. Covid isn't going away.
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Feb 20, 2022 01:04
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El Mero Mero posted:Public air quality monitors, HVAC standards for bars, gyms, and restaurants, formal public sewage testing programs, permanent guidance around when people should mask or be required to mask, a global sampling network that targets animal reserves like we already have for flu, yearly vaccines, labor work standards focused on limiting crowding, paid sick leave, and improving ventilation, etc etc. These are polices we choose not to enact every day and people are and will continue to die as a result. There is no "back to normal". There is only "a new normal that we have created, based on what we have learned and accepted." Hell, almost all of those would be progress even without the pandemic. I live in Hong Kong, and after two years of keeping Covid at bay, it's probably game over here. Cases are doubling almost every day, are up 60x this month, and are probably 10x what they're reported. I know of entire households (3 generations + live-in maid) that used at-home test kits, all tested positive, and decided to ride it out at home rather than turn themselves into the over-capacity health and quarantine system. There is a plan to test the entire population three times starting in a few weeks, but I think it will be too late for that to be useful. Unfortunately, I think it's going to get bad. Only 30% of the 80-years-old+ population is vaccinated and like half of the 60+. HK did not use the last two years to really prepare for this moment. In hindsight, it seems like the government (and much of the population) was just betting on Covid Zero working forever and did not have backup systems and plans for a break in the levee. System capacity seems to have been calibrated for a steady state of a few daily imported cases and maybe a small local outbreak once every few months. Even building emergency hospital facilities (which they are doing) and designation of all the hotels for quarantining (which they also appear to be moving towards) will not create enough capacity, and that's ignoring the limits on public health professionals. Someone mentioned 'civic mindedness' upthread as a variable in how China has performed well. At least here in HK, I don't think that's been the case. My impression has been that compliance was driven much more by fear of getting put in a quarantine facility and fear of being public outed and shamed, which was what happened when cases were few enough to report on individually in the press. Unfortunately this also created the perverse incentive to avoiding testing and to bypass track-and-track systems (i.e., phone app). I don't think a strict HK-wide lockdown would work at this point. Containment attempts on smaller scales (e.g., locking down entire estates with cases) failed. The infrastructure doesn't work for it. Too many people live in old estates that would have needed investment to prevent transmission from housing unit to unit. Too many housing units are not fit for living inside for an extended period — they're basically sleeping pods. Too many people rely on external support (e.g., elderly people who live alone). In hindsight, a lot of that could have been mitigated, but now it's too late. I think how things pan out in HK will influence how Beijing proceeds with the rest of China. Keep in mind that a lot of HK covid policy has been (and continues to be) guided and supported by mainland authorities and public health experts. I sometimes wonder if HK is being watched as a test run. If the outbreak is absorbed without a catastrophic collapse in the healthcare system and public confidence in the state, then Beijing will be more comfortable with gradually reopening. If something on the other end of the spectrum, then don't count on mainland relaxing policies one bit anytime soon. I'm still not sure what the long-term plan is for China. They can buy more time to develop and deploy domestic mRNA vaccines that are more effective (ignoring the fact that they already manufacture BioNTech but have no approved it for their own population), stock up other treatments, further bolster the health care system, invest in other improvements like El Mero Mero mentions, etc., but Covid ain't going away. China might be unique in its ability to stay sealed off and more self-sufficient than other places (HKSAR is far more dependent on international connections due to its role as the gateway to China), but I think that ability gets exaggerated. It would also just be a sad state of affairs. I already know lots of people who've missed births, weddings, funerals, and other major life events because they couldn't get back, who've given up on educations, careers, and relationships. I know that those kinds of tolls get dismissed in this thread because dying alone with a tube down one's throat is worse, but they're still real costs.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:05
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So if China was really banking on COVID Zero with no backup plan and it spirals out of control, supply issues are going to get a lot, lot worse, right?
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Feb 20, 2022 06:40
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LifeLynx posted:So if China was really banking on COVID Zero with no backup plan and it spirals out of control, supply issues are going to get a lot, lot worse, right? I wouldn't bet on it spiraling out of control. There are a lot of factors unique to Hong Kong that make it more difficult to prevent and respond to outbreaks compared to most places in the mainland. And even if it got out of control in one place in the mainland, it could probably be contained to that area. For supply issues, it would then depend on how exposed the supply chain is to the outbreak area. But it's probably not great that the Pearl River Delta borders HK and accounts for like a third of Chinese international trade. Supply chain issues are already hitting HK. Shelves are empty for essentials and prices are very high. But I'm not sure if the causes transfer to the rest of the world. I believe it's mainly been driven by all modes of import having dramatic drops in capacity either due to policies (e.g., truck drivers have to quarantine after making runs) or illness among logistics workers.
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Feb 20, 2022 07:04
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LifeLynx posted:So if China was really banking on COVID Zero with no backup plan and it spirals out of control, supply issues are going to get a lot, lot worse, right?
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Feb 20, 2022 07:07
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It's hard to tell what's going on due to an uneven testing policies, but UK case levels are now back to pre-omicron levels without any NPI's in place. (Positivity is 11% vs the sub 10% it sat at pre-Omicron). The omicron wave cause a fraction of the deaths during that period that it had during previous variant waves https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-weekly_deaths_with_covid-19_on_the_death_certificate_by_date_registered
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Feb 20, 2022 08:54
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Weasling Weasel posted:It's hard to tell what's going on due to an uneven testing policies, but UK case levels are now back to pre-omicron levels without any NPI's in place. (Positivity is 11% vs the sub 10% it sat at pre-Omicron). The omicron wave cause a fraction of the deaths during that period that it had during previous variant waves https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-weekly_deaths_with_covid-19_on_the_death_certificate_by_date_registered Guess it was mild after all
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Feb 20, 2022 09:44
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gay picnic defence posted:Guess it was mild after all Compared to Delta? yeah. OG COVID? Not so much
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Feb 20, 2022 09:57
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Denmark - 19 February 2022 I was sure I did one on the 18th. WTF. Anyhow, we still seem to be in the "gently caress it, get it over with" phase as we compress what was months of cases into weeks or even days. Death rates per day way up. 2.55 million cases now out of a 5.8 million population, 120,000 re-infections. Not sure what to deduce from the fact re-infection is 5-6% of daily cases. Oh and we're up from 3 to 5 deaths in the 0-19 range now in the last few weeks. Poor kids. Still its only 5 out of 4278. Anyway. Table 1. Actual and Reported Denmark COVID Cases reported per day pre:Actual Reported New Total Date Cases Cases Reinf. Hosp. Hosp. ICU Vent Dead ============================================================================================== Feb 19 --- 33,304 1,837 399 1,546 37 (+4) 18 (-1) 28 Feb 18 17,454 38,086 1,615 459 1,615 33 (+2) 19 (+5) 43 Feb 17 34,019 40,600 2,158 480 1,604 31 (+0) 14 (+0) 44 Feb 16 36,055 42,948 2,407 459 1,498 31 (+0) 14 (+1) 24 Feb 15 42,006 42,978 2,200 464 1,523 31 (+6) 13 (+2) 30 Feb 14 45,208 29,474 1,461 333 1,465 25 (+0) 11 (+3) 41 Feb 13 35,589 38,323 2,039 314 1,356 25 (-5) 8 (-1) 30 Feb 12 32,624 44,350 2,259 427 1,316 30 (-2) 9 (+0) 37 Feb 11 38,889 48,170 2,968 421 1,379 32 (-1) 9 (+1) 24 Feb 10 45,111 53,747 3,205 415 1,354 33 (-1) 12 (+1) 29 Feb 09 50,253 55,120 3,262 451 1,332 34 (-5) 11 (-4) 21 Feb 08 55,575 49,798 2,759 419 1,315 39 (+8) 15 (+3) 18 Feb 07 57,350 34,849 1,836 314 1,294 31 (-3) 12 (+0) 28 Feb 06 42,234 36,512 1,841 307 1,203 34 (+3) 12 (+0) 18 Feb 05 33,604 39,190 2,061 370 1,138 31 (-2) 12 (-1) 35 Feb 04 37,192 40.179 2,241 376 1,156 33 (+6) 13 (+1) 17 Feb 03 39,792 44,225 2,513 365 1,116 27 (+1) 12 (-4) 21 Feb 02 40,476 55,001 2,992 343 1,092 26 (-2) 16 (+2) 20 Feb 01 46,118 45,366 2,515 337 1,070 28 (-4) 14 (-1) 15 Jan 31 56,397 29,084 1,478 255 1,028 32 (+1) 15 (+0) 17 Jan 30 34,881 36,196 2,055 231 948 31 (-4) 15 (-4) 21 Jan 29 29,907 41,083 2,332 271 922 35 (+2) 19 (+0) 17 Jan 28 38,122 53,655 3,263 305 967 33 (-4) 19 (-3) 26 Jan 27 39,067 51,033 3,119 318 955 37 (-3) 22 (-3) 18 Jan 26 41,695 46,747 3,028 298 938 40 (-4) 25 (-3) 14 Jan 25 48,640 43,734 2,856 318 918 44 (+1) 28 (-1) 14 Jan 24 53,663 40,348 2,501 242 894 43 (+1) 29 (+2) 13 Jan 23 38,017 42,018 2,755 215 813 42 (-3) 27 (-1) 12 Jan 22 34,713 36,120 2,285 220 781 45 (+1) 28 (-1) 25 Jan 21 37,409 46,831 3,160 244 813 44 (-5) 29 (+1) 21 Jan 20 37,420 40,626 2,639 232 825 49 (-1) 28 (-2) 15 Jan 19 37,595 38,759 2,285 248 821 50 (+1) 30 (+1) 16 Jan 18 40,303 33,493 2,002 264 810 49 (-3) 29 (-8) 14 Jan 17 41,486 28,780 1,815 203 802 52 (-7) 37 (-4) 11 Jan 16 28,179 26,169 1,614 159 734 59 (+0) 41 (+1) 16 Jan 15 25,188 25,034 1,644 202 711 59 (-1) 40 (+4) 16 Jan 14 25,883 23,614 1,519 215 757 60 (-4) 36 (-2) 15 Jan 13 23,776 25,751 1,822 194 755 64 (-9) 38 (-8) 20 Jan 12 22,575 24,343 1,614 215 751 73 (+0) 46 (+0) 25 Jan 11 22,656 22,936 1,459 181 754 73 (-1) 46 (-1) 14 Jan 10 23,244 14,414 941 156 777 74 (-3) 47 (-3) 9 Jan 09 16,330 19,248 1,327 126 723 77 (-1) 50 (-2) 14 Jan 08 13,573 12,588 984 161 730 78 (+0) 52 (-1) 28 Jan 07 14,434 18,261 1,482 186 755 78 (-4) 53 (+4) 10 Jan 06 15,417 25,995 2,027 161 756 82 (+2) 47 (-2) 11 Jan 05 17,577 28,283 2,083 204 784 80 (+3) 49 (+2) 15 Jan 04 23,698 23,372 1,701 229 792 77 (+4) 47 (+1) 15 Jan 03* 25,617 8,801 532 169 770 73 (-3) 46 (-4) 5 Jan 02 19,906 7,550 404 163 709 76 (+3) 50 (+1) 15 Jan 01 8,631 20,885 1,049 139 647 73 (+0) 49 (+0) 5 Dec 31 9,728 17,605 1,090 177 641 73 (-2) 49 (-1) 11 Dec 30 19,927 21,403 1,123 178 665 75 (-2) 50 (-2) 9 Dec 29 17,245 23,228 1,205 173 675 77 (+6) 52 (+2) 16 Dec 28 21,955 13,000 670 177 666 71 (+1) 50 (+4) 14 Dec 27 22,616 16,164 639 115 608 70 (-1) 46 (-2) 7 Dec 26 10,965 14,844 644 123 579 71 (-2) 43 (+1) 13 Dec 25 7,853 10,027 463 86 522 73 (-1) 44 (+5) 10 Dec 24 7,054 11,229 527 134 509 74 (+2) 39 (+1) 14 Dec 23 12,605 12,487 613 158 541 72 (+6) 38 (+1) 15 Dec 22 11,591 13,386 531 126 524 66 (-1) 37 (+2) 14 Dec 21 13,011 13,558 501 121 526 67 (+1) 35 (+2) 17 Dec 20 13,288 10,082 --- 85 581 66 (+3) 33 (-2) 8 Dec 19 10,231 8,212 Dec 18 10,049 8,594 Dec 17 10.614 11,194 Dec 16 10,171 9,999 Dec 15 10,775 8,773 --- 96 508 66 (+0) 43 (-3) 9 Dec 13 10,294 7,799 --- 61 480 64 (-1) 42 (+0) 9 Dec 12 6,986 5,989 --- 82 468 65 (+5) 42 (+6) 9 Dec 08 6,560 6,629 --- 72 461 66 (-1) 38 (-1) 7 Dec 01 4,464 5,120 --- 88 439 35 (+1) 35 (+1) 14 Table 2: ICU Bed Usage, Weekly (reported every 2 weeks) pre:Date Bed Availability ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 January 313 ICU beds, 27 COVID, 75 available 24 January 322 ICU beds, 38 COVID, 72 available 17 January 328 ICU beds, 54 COVID, 66 available 10 January 331 ICU beds, 72 COVID, 29 available 03 January 331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available 27 December 316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 20 December 317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available 13 December 319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available 06 December 310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here 29 November 318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/ https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26 https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr
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Feb 20, 2022 10:12
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Rust Martialis posted:Death rates per day way up. But is excess mortality way up?
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Feb 20, 2022 10:57
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Steen71 posted:But is excess mortality way up? Don't know. I looked at the deaths in ICU from the RKKP biweekly reports. From 01 November to 30 November there were 113 ICU patients, and 19 deaths (Delta). No breakdown by vaccine status. pre:Date Cases Deaths <2 Shots 2 Shots Boosted 09 Dec 113 19 --- --- --- 22 Dec 219 46 13/105 31/92 2/14 06 Jan 329 92 27/152 47/122 9/24 20 Jan 406 118 42/212 62/146 14/48 03 Feb 450 138 51/231 67/155 20/64 17 Feb 496 158 60/246 74/161 24/89 So in December the baseline is (Jan 06 numbers minus 09 December) and so about 216 ICU cases and 73 deaths. In January (up to 03 Feb report) an additional 121 cases of a Delta-Omicron mix with 46 deaths. In February so far 46 more cases and 20 deaths. I should point out that half the total cases up to January 31 were in January 2022. We already knew Omicron was putting fewer people overall in the ICU anyhow. Looking at the "less than 2 shots" you see "mostly Delta" from 22 Dec report to 20 Jan report killed 29 of 107 cases, whereas from 20 Jan to 15 Feb was 18 of 34. Omicron is plenty lethal in unvaccinated, I'd say. Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 13:28 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 12:30
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Steen71 posted:But is excess mortality way up? For 85+ it definitely is, 75-84 and probably 65-74 are also experiencing an uptick. Most disconcerting 15-44 is also appearing to increase. But you are asking a complicated question, that relates to the determination of "excess" and when deaths are counted. Denmark uses specific - normally low excess death - weeks in the preceding 5 years, so with 2 years of COVID "excess" is becoming "expected" (it is calculated based on weeks 16-25 and 37-44, which in Denmark's case involved ~1.5-2 registered COVID deaths per day). Meanwhile there is some delay in death reporting, meaning you get some assumed development that can be poor at capturing rapid near past developments. Either way you can look at the graphs here (note that these aren't confidence intervals and the lowest line is expected deaths; everything above the lowest line is excess): https://www.ssi.dk/sygdomme-beredskab-og-forskning/sygdomsovervaagning/d/overvaagning-af-doedelighed Pingui fucked around with this message at 14:20 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 13:51
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It just looks to me like we currently have no worse numbers than we did in early 2018. And, sure, that was pretty bad, but I think it's perfectly understandable that the authorities can't justify restrictions. From https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
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Feb 20, 2022 14:22
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Steen71 posted:It just looks to me like we currently have no worse numbers than we did in early 2018. And, sure, that was pretty bad, but I think it's perfectly understandable that the authorities can't justify restrictions. First a tip: remove the other countries from the displayed list to get a useful graph:  2018 was a particularly gnarly flu season, so using that as a baseline, instead of the actual baseline is not a reasonable way to compare well... anything. Compared to worst case, things are less bad by definition. Moreover and what I addressed in the prior post, COVID deaths are starting to be calculated into the baseline. When you look at 2018, the baselines used for comparison are not the same. They look the same and barring a perpetual pandemic the measurement works fine, but the pandemic deaths are starting to be priced in. You can call the removal of restrictions reasonable if you don't mind a future where the deaths are a fixture of life I guess; in a few short years the normalization will be complete in the numbers  I - personally - think that is a pretty bleak future, as the current situation with the booster timing is about as good as the winter will ever be and I don't think the authorities can justify it in human terms, even if they succeeded in doing so in political terms.
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Feb 20, 2022 14:47
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Denmark - 20 February 2022 Lets be more timely! For non-Danes, this week was "Winter Vacation" (Vinterferie) in DK, and it seems a reduction in the daily case load - schools closed and a lot of Danes with kids take the week off. I expect numbers to bounce back up next week to about where they were a week ago. There's nothing stopping the virus from hitting whatever "natural" rate of spread is. At about 1/4 million cases a week, GF and I were at Bilka (Danish hypermarket) in suburban Copenhagen (in Fields' for the locals) early today and saw almost no masking. Table 1. Actual and Reported Denmark COVID Cases reported per day pre:Actual Reported New Total Date Cases Cases Reinf. Hosp. Hosp. ICU Vent Dead ============================================================================================== Feb 20 --- 25,690 1,381 241 1,587 40 (+3) 18 (+0) 34 Feb 19 16,316 33,304 1,837 399 1,546 37 (+4) 18 (-1) 28 Feb 18 26,722 38,086 1,615 459 1,615 33 (+2) 19 (+5) 43 Feb 17 34,060 40,600 2,158 480 1,604 31 (+0) 14 (+0) 44 Feb 16 36,055 42,948 2,407 459 1,498 31 (+0) 14 (+1) 24 Feb 15 42,006 42,978 2,200 464 1,523 31 (+6) 13 (+2) 30 Feb 14 45,208 29,474 1,461 333 1,465 25 (+0) 11 (+3) 41 Feb 13 35,589 38,323 2,039 314 1,356 25 (-5) 8 (-1) 30 Feb 12 32,624 44,350 2,259 427 1,316 30 (-2) 9 (+0) 37 Feb 11 38,889 48,170 2,968 421 1,379 32 (-1) 9 (+1) 24 Feb 10 45,111 53,747 3,205 415 1,354 33 (-1) 12 (+1) 29 Feb 09 50,253 55,120 3,262 451 1,332 34 (-5) 11 (-4) 21 Feb 08 55,575 49,798 2,759 419 1,315 39 (+8) 15 (+3) 18 Feb 07 57,350 34,849 1,836 314 1,294 31 (-3) 12 (+0) 28 Feb 06 42,234 36,512 1,841 307 1,203 34 (+3) 12 (+0) 18 Feb 05 33,604 39,190 2,061 370 1,138 31 (-2) 12 (-1) 35 Feb 04 37,192 40.179 2,241 376 1,156 33 (+6) 13 (+1) 17 Feb 03 39,792 44,225 2,513 365 1,116 27 (+1) 12 (-4) 21 Feb 02 40,476 55,001 2,992 343 1,092 26 (-2) 16 (+2) 20 Feb 01 46,118 45,366 2,515 337 1,070 28 (-4) 14 (-1) 15 Jan 31 56,397 29,084 1,478 255 1,028 32 (+1) 15 (+0) 17 Jan 30 34,881 36,196 2,055 231 948 31 (-4) 15 (-4) 21 Jan 29 29,907 41,083 2,332 271 922 35 (+2) 19 (+0) 17 Jan 28 38,122 53,655 3,263 305 967 33 (-4) 19 (-3) 26 Jan 27 39,067 51,033 3,119 318 955 37 (-3) 22 (-3) 18 Jan 26 41,695 46,747 3,028 298 938 40 (-4) 25 (-3) 14 Jan 25 48,640 43,734 2,856 318 918 44 (+1) 28 (-1) 14 Jan 24 53,663 40,348 2,501 242 894 43 (+1) 29 (+2) 13 Jan 23 38,017 42,018 2,755 215 813 42 (-3) 27 (-1) 12 Jan 22 34,713 36,120 2,285 220 781 45 (+1) 28 (-1) 25 Jan 21 37,409 46,831 3,160 244 813 44 (-5) 29 (+1) 21 Jan 20 37,420 40,626 2,639 232 825 49 (-1) 28 (-2) 15 Jan 19 37,595 38,759 2,285 248 821 50 (+1) 30 (+1) 16 Jan 18 40,303 33,493 2,002 264 810 49 (-3) 29 (-8) 14 Jan 17 41,486 28,780 1,815 203 802 52 (-7) 37 (-4) 11 Jan 16 28,179 26,169 1,614 159 734 59 (+0) 41 (+1) 16 Jan 15 25,188 25,034 1,644 202 711 59 (-1) 40 (+4) 16 Jan 14 25,883 23,614 1,519 215 757 60 (-4) 36 (-2) 15 Jan 13 23,776 25,751 1,822 194 755 64 (-9) 38 (-8) 20 Jan 12 22,575 24,343 1,614 215 751 73 (+0) 46 (+0) 25 Jan 11 22,656 22,936 1,459 181 754 73 (-1) 46 (-1) 14 Jan 10 23,244 14,414 941 156 777 74 (-3) 47 (-3) 9 Jan 09 16,330 19,248 1,327 126 723 77 (-1) 50 (-2) 14 Jan 08 13,573 12,588 984 161 730 78 (+0) 52 (-1) 28 Jan 07 14,434 18,261 1,482 186 755 78 (-4) 53 (+4) 10 Jan 06 15,417 25,995 2,027 161 756 82 (+2) 47 (-2) 11 Jan 05 17,577 28,283 2,083 204 784 80 (+3) 49 (+2) 15 Jan 04 23,698 23,372 1,701 229 792 77 (+4) 47 (+1) 15 Jan 03* 25,617 8,801 532 169 770 73 (-3) 46 (-4) 5 Jan 02 19,906 7,550 404 163 709 76 (+3) 50 (+1) 15 Jan 01 8,631 20,885 1,049 139 647 73 (+0) 49 (+0) 5 Dec 31 9,728 17,605 1,090 177 641 73 (-2) 49 (-1) 11 Dec 30 19,927 21,403 1,123 178 665 75 (-2) 50 (-2) 9 Dec 29 17,245 23,228 1,205 173 675 77 (+6) 52 (+2) 16 Dec 28 21,955 13,000 670 177 666 71 (+1) 50 (+4) 14 Dec 27 22,616 16,164 639 115 608 70 (-1) 46 (-2) 7 Dec 26 10,965 14,844 644 123 579 71 (-2) 43 (+1) 13 Dec 25 7,853 10,027 463 86 522 73 (-1) 44 (+5) 10 Dec 24 7,054 11,229 527 134 509 74 (+2) 39 (+1) 14 Dec 23 12,605 12,487 613 158 541 72 (+6) 38 (+1) 15 Dec 22 11,591 13,386 531 126 524 66 (-1) 37 (+2) 14 Dec 21 13,011 13,558 501 121 526 67 (+1) 35 (+2) 17 Dec 20 13,288 10,082 --- 85 581 66 (+3) 33 (-2) 8 Dec 19 10,231 8,212 Dec 18 10,049 8,594 Dec 17 10.614 11,194 Dec 16 10,171 9,999 Dec 15 10,775 8,773 --- 96 508 66 (+0) 43 (-3) 9 Dec 13 10,294 7,799 --- 61 480 64 (-1) 42 (+0) 9 Dec 12 6,986 5,989 --- 82 468 65 (+5) 42 (+6) 9 Dec 08 6,560 6,629 --- 72 461 66 (-1) 38 (-1) 7 Dec 01 4,464 5,120 --- 88 439 35 (+1) 35 (+1) 14 Table 2: ICU Bed Usage, Weekly (reported every 2 weeks) pre:Date Bed Availability ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 January 313 ICU beds, 27 COVID, 75 available 24 January 322 ICU beds, 38 COVID, 72 available 17 January 328 ICU beds, 54 COVID, 66 available 10 January 331 ICU beds, 72 COVID, 29 available 03 January 331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available 27 December 316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 20 December 317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available 13 December 319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available 06 December 310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here 29 November 318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/ https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26 https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 18:05
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Is DK estimating r0 anywhere, Pingui? 1/4 million cases a week, and assuming almost nobody getting Omicron gets it again, the pool of susceptibles dwindles weekly from the roughly 3.3 million at present, at which we have 250,000 infected. Next week, 3.05 million so we should see a drop in new cases, almost 8%. So then next week you could see 8% fewer new cases, 230,000. Dropping the pool to 2.75 million, which drops the cases bit more. At some point the dilution of susceptibles in the population will lower r0 enough that it drops below 1.0, right? I mean you could enforce things... but nobody has the will. So where are we on r0?
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Feb 20, 2022 18:27
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