(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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Ardennes posted:According to that report, the vast majority of the areas being hit are in separatist territory which implies that government forces are the ones doing it unless the separatist are constantly firing artillery at themselves. They might just have really bad aim.
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Feb 20, 2022 15:32
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 06:15 |
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One thing that is really noticeable is gently caress me the US press is just horny for war! They are just gagging for it.
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Feb 20, 2022 15:37
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I'm sure China is very eager to go after things that doesn't pay the bills such as "your rights"
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Feb 20, 2022 15:38
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Only thing I've learned over years is liberals only care about optics. Putin is a quiet brooding personality mixed with history of supporting questionable conflicts. US has had "cool" charismatic presidents like Obama ... who also support questionable conflicts. The optics of Obama being cool matters more than him drone assassinating US citizens (Al-awakis son), expanding the drone program, financing a fake vaccination program in Pakistan, refusing to close secret torture prisons, targeting of journalists, starting decade+ long conflicts in Syria and Libya, coup in Honduras (there are more). Because Putin isn't "fun" by western media standards, he must be evil and we must be good despite anyone looking at this objectively would immediately recognize US is the global evil here and Russia is just a strawman always to hide how lovely US is
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Feb 20, 2022 15:39
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CYBEReris posted:is there a reason the (lib especially) assumption is always that the separatists are taking direct orders from russia? regardless of what they are and are not doing I would think they would have their own motives and goals and internal command hierarchy. for all we know the separatists want russia's aid but russia is refusing because they don't want war. the general line of thinking, as far as I'm aware, is that the separatists only survive because of Russian support (for example, the Ukrainian military was beating them pretty handily back in 2014 before Russian intervention) and so have to abide by Russia's orders or lose the backing that keeps them afloat. I think it's a pretty shortsighted interpretation because it denies agency to separatists who likely have their own goals that may sometimes complement but sometimes contradict Russia's goals, and also because of the many comparisons you can make of great power client state leaders taking action of their own accord to try and pressure their patrons into a preferred course of action. But it fits with the pretty reductive takes you often see in the media that characterize Russian decision-making as resting entirely on Putin the all-powerful dictator rather than recognizing that decision-making in the Kremlin is more complicated than that.
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Feb 20, 2022 15:43
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Sounds like USA is going to need more private holding facilities.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:01
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exmarx posted:k, last one lol awesome
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Feb 20, 2022 16:02
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vyelkin posted:But it fits with the pretty reductive takes you often see in the media that characterize Russian decision-making as resting entirely on Putin the all-powerful dictator rather than recognizing that decision-making in the Kremlin is more complicated than that.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:05
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https://twitter.com/DumbGuypod/status/1495266305443876865
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Feb 20, 2022 16:07
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exmarx posted:k, last one cool
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Feb 20, 2022 16:34
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crepeface posted:https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1494815986976845826?s=20&t=8AHpxsK6_zECCHOHtdfRLA I too, have read Tom Clancy’s longest novel, “The Bear and the Dragon”.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:36
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The idea that Ukraine decided right now is the time to make a final push to conquer the separatist regions while Russia has them encircled with 150,000+ troops is pretty dumb.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:37
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Sinteres posted:The idea that Ukraine decided right now is the time to make a final push to conquer the separatist regions while Russia has them encircled with 150,000+ troops is pretty dumb. Who knows if Ukraine actually is going to push in full force but government forces certainly have been upping the amount of artillery strikes into the separatist regions. In that context, I don’t see the evacuation of civilians and mobilization in those regions as that unexpected. It really depends on which side really starts moving its tanks around though and if they make the conflict “hot” again.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:41
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Sinteres posted:The idea that Ukraine decided right now is the time to make a final push to conquer the separatist regions while Russia has them encircled with 150,000+ troops is pretty dumb. almost as dumb as the idea of Russia invading The Ukraine just as nordstream 2 is about to go online
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Feb 20, 2022 16:42
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thatfatkid posted:almost as dumb as the idea of Russia invading The Ukraine just as nordstream 2 is about to go online I think it's dumber because regardless of the costs involved Russia is at least capable of accomplishing whatever war aims they might theoretically have in Ukraine, while Ukraine is not at all capable of accomplishing theirs.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:46
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Germany wants NS2 too much; Scholz will personally tell Biden and BoJo to gently caress off. It's never been at risk.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:48
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Sinteres posted:I think it's dumber because regardless of the costs involved Russia is at least capable of accomplishing whatever war aims they might theoretically have in Ukraine, while Ukraine is not at all capable of accomplishing theirs. It depends on the optics is the situation though and if they could fight a campaign without active Russian intervention. All of this is about brinkmanship. Conspiratiorist posted:Germany wants NS2 too much; Scholz will personally tell Biden and BoJo to gently caress off. It still has to pass the European Parliament and Scholz depends on the anti-pipeline Green’s for a coalition. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 16:50 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 16:48
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Ardennes posted:It depends on the optics is the situation though and if they could fight a campaign without active Russian intervention. Yeah but literally no one would think they can fight that campaign without active Russian intervention while there are troops massed across the border and Russia's already making ominously threatening demands all the time. Like I think the Ukrainian leadership has been borderline suicidal with pursuing policies they know will push Russia to act is it is, but I don't think they're Saakashvili levels of stupid, blundering into setting things off themselves.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:49
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Sinteres posted:Yeah but literally no one would think they can fight that campaign without active Russian intervention while there are troops massed across the border and Russia's already making ominously threatening demands all the time. Personally, I've stopped believing people won't do stupid things purely because it is a bad idea but ymmv.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:51
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Personally, I've stopped believing people won't do stupid things purely because it is a bad idea but ymmv. I don't think anyone involved is making ideal decisions necessarily, it just seems pretty transparent that the Ukrainian final push narrative is being constructed by Russia as a casus belli, and I don't think Ukraine is quite stupid enough to actually do it when they've already seen another world leader do that and get hosed up badly.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:52
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Sinteres posted:Yeah but literally no one would think they can fight that campaign without active Russian intervention while there are troops massed across the border and Russia's already making ominously threatening demands all the time. It depends if Kiev wants to call their bluff with the knowledge how much the West wants to sanction the Russian economy. It is at least a possible even though it would be high risk. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 16:56 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 16:52
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Sinteres posted:The idea that Ukraine decided right now is the time to make a final push to conquer the separatist regions while Russia has them encircled with 150,000+ troops is pretty dumb. I don't think anyone outside of the Kremlin press office would claim the Ukrainian government is doing that. But how much control does Zelensky have over the neo-fasscist volunteer battalions or the gas oligarchs?
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Feb 20, 2022 16:55
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genericnick posted:I don't think anyone outside of the Kremlin press office would claim the Ukrainian government is doing that. But how much control does Zelensky have over the neo-fasscist volunteer battalions or the gas oligarchs? Granted, it is a bit unclear how much heavy artillery the paramilitaries control considering the latest shelling. It may be that the shelling is a relative “compromise” position rather than actual maneuver warfare. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 17:00 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 16:58
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genericnick posted:I don't think anyone outside of the Kremlin press office would claim the Ukrainian government is doing that. But how much control does Zelensky have over the neo-fasscist volunteer battalions or the gas oligarchs? Yeah it's important to remember in moments like this that states aren't unitary actors. The president or cabinet in Kyiv might be saying one thing, but that doesn't mean that every soldier and administrator across the country is following their orders to the letter every minute of every day. I can imagine a lot of soldiers being pretty unhappy with orders to not shoot back even if fired upon, for example.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:58
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Ardennes posted:It depends if Kiev wants to call their bluff with the knowledge how much the West wants to sanction the Russian economy. It is at least a possible even though it would be high risk. Look at how much video has come out recently of Russian troop movements on the border. If Ukraine was doing anything even remotely comparable we'd be seeing all kinds of videos of it, but instead we just get murky rumors. I really don't think Ukrainian infosec is that good, especially since we all know they're pretty heavily infiltrated by Russia, who'd be extremely disposed to leak anything damning to Ukraine. Instead we get embarrassing videos with old metadata coming out from the separatist republics. genericnick posted:I don't think anyone outside of the Kremlin press office would claim the Ukrainian government is doing that. But how much control does Zelensky have over the neo-fasscist volunteer battalions or the gas oligarchs? Azov Battalion obviously exists and is awful, but I really don't think they have the size or power to make big moves like that without support from regular forces.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:00
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Ardennes posted:It still has to pass the European Parliament and Scholz depends on the anti-pipeline Green’s for a coalition. Jam it through as part of the ceasefire that gets Russia to stop kicking pwoo lil Ukraine. Sinteres posted:Yeah but literally no one would think they can fight that campaign without active Russian intervention while there are troops massed across the border and Russia's already making ominously threatening demands all the time. Like I think the Ukrainian leadership has been borderline suicidal with pursuing policies they know will push Russia to act is it is, but I don't think they're Saakashvili levels of stupid, blundering into setting things off themselves. It's a narrative that hinges on both Ukrainian leadership being so stupid as to start a war with an adversary that's amassed the largest fighting force since the Iraq War, and Russian leadership being so stupid as to get baited into a war they definitely don't want because they totally absolutely have nothing to gain and only puts their economy at risk. All puppetmastered by the geniuses at the CIA, of course. Occam's razor is maybe the guys that have put together a Totally Just Moving My Troops Inside My Borders (and my Friend's) are looking for a fight, will make up a cause if they aren't outright given one, while on the side the US yells as loudly as possible because they're a demon cracker nation of war profiteers and just can't loving help themselves.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:02
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Sinteres posted:Look at how much video has come out recently of Russian troop movements on the border. If Ukraine was doing anything even remotely comparable we'd be seeing all kinds of videos of it, but instead we just get murky rumors. I really don't think Ukrainian infosec is that good, especially since we all know they're pretty heavily infiltrated by Russia, who'd be extremely disposed to leak anything damning to Ukraine. Instead we get embarrassing videos with old metadata coming out from the separatist republics. The Ukrainian government already has a bunch of troops in the area, they wouldn’t have to be shipped in from Siberia.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:02
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Ardennes posted:The Ukrainian government already has a bunch of troops in the area, they wouldn’t have to be shipped in from Siberia. There's a difference between in the area and organizing for a final push. I'm not talking about transport videos showing the process of military movements from Siberia to the border either, I'm talking about videos within five miles of the border, and we'd be seeing that kind of video from the Ukrainian side if they were making offensive preparations.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:03
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The most likely outcome is that nothing actually happens, just like the last time there was a flare up. Both sides are trading shots & artillery right now because that's the kind of dance you have to do when you're trying to demonstrate that the other guy needs to start de-escalating.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:12
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Personally, I've stopped believing people won't do stupid things purely because it is a bad idea but ymmv. but that means that anything could happen
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Feb 20, 2022 17:14
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:The most likely outcome is that nothing actually happens, just like the last time there was a flare up. Both sides are trading shots & artillery right now because that's the kind of dance you have to do when you're trying to demonstrate that the other guy needs to start de-escalating.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:16
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CBS reporting Russia to proceed invasion of Ukraine. It's groundhogs day. Again.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:23
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exmarx posted:k, last one amazing
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Feb 20, 2022 17:27
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https://twitter.com/wtop/status/1495436127259537413?s=21 this is at least martin’s third “here comes the invasion alert” of the past week
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Feb 20, 2022 17:33
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Zeroisanumber posted:One thing that is really noticeable is gently caress me the US press is just horny for war! They are just gagging for it. there is no other way to keep the current Democrat-media order in place otherwise. They’re out of options to keep Kamala in play for the whitehouse.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:34
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Republicans are starting to shift towards Biden. War is becoming more likely
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Feb 20, 2022 17:35
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If you think it's bad now wait until the air campaign begins and congress/media start screeching about establishing a NFZ.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:38
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we have already reached the fabled date of February 20 where's my invasion?
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Feb 20, 2022 17:39
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im no military strategist but i would think NOT advertising when you are going to invade is preferable to letting everyone know exactly when your invasion will start unless! unless their plan is lull everyone into a false sense of security and then really invade of these times those crafty ruskies!
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Feb 20, 2022 17:39
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 06:15 |
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Raskolnikov38 posted:https://twitter.com/wtop/status/1495436127259537413?s=21 you almost get the impression they're doing it over and over again until people stop bothering to push back
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Feb 20, 2022 17:39
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