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pippy posted:The aggressor here is Russia, you're nearly always going to be correct just assuming everything that paints them in a positive light in this conflict is untrue. ... Their cops are better at following masking rules than American ones? https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1495367206384934912
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Feb 20, 2022 16:12
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https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1495383396196962310?t=zjYrjImq7XJrEajXIX1RLg&s=19
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Feb 20, 2022 16:40
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Mebh posted:So with Russia being pretty good at modern disinformation campaigns online (as evidenced by hoky poo poo the arguments about this across the entire Internet) I'm assuming taking nearly everything I read with a massive pinch of salt. This is a massive military maneuver threatening the largest land war in two decades being used as a disinformation weapon to Pwn the world online. Neal Stephenson's Seveneves includes a future where generals are beautiful media-friendly pundit personalities reporting live from conflicts to sway public opinion. I can see that happening in the Western world, but Russia is pushing for the opposite. Seed the field with faceless, conflicting information and rely on partisans choosing whatever lane of propaganda they're comfortable with. Seven years ago it was vacationing Russians without identification who managed to annex Crimea. Online it's still somehow inexplicable how they all ended up there.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:47
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Redgrendel2001 posted:https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1495383396196962310?t=zjYrjImq7XJrEajXIX1RLg&s=19 imagine getting mad at finnish people. just watching them drunkenly shout Perkele while reading donald duck comics in their saunas and getting mad as hell.
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Feb 20, 2022 16:51
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is it possible that the whole thing is really about gaining military control of belarus more than pressuring ukraine?
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Feb 20, 2022 16:56
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https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1495405260118138883?s=20&t=wJT3dm30CRkBxuYOaw3sVQ They'd still have the euro!
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Feb 20, 2022 17:02
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Shibawanko posted:is it possible that the whole thing is really about gaining military control of belarus more than pressuring ukraine? Zero. Belarus and Russia already signed comprehensive integration treaties. They have even begun referring themselves as a Union State.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:07
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Redgrendel2001 posted:https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1495383396196962310?t=zjYrjImq7XJrEajXIX1RLg&s=19 I can't find the video, but the announcer claims he said 'misfortune snatched the medals with its little rat paws', not Finns. Conspiratiorist posted:Zero. The Union State exists since 1999. The integration moves at a glacial pace since. The recently signed roadmaps were in development for almost ten years, and in the meantime Russia and Belarus can't even make mobile phone calls roaming free between the two countries. Both sides exploit integration for their own gains, but there are obvious non-starters that Putin and Lukashenko have in scope of full integration. Lukashenko, for example, wants Minsk to be able to print Russian roubles, and Putin wants Russian oligarchs to be able to buy out Belarusian state-owned factories. The Union State is more of a PR project for the USSR-minded audiences at home, while the real economical and legal unification happens through the Eurasian Economic Union. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 17:17
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My current guess is that Putin will launch something that looks like an invasion of entire Ukraine, but when the smoke clears, only Donetsk and Luhansk will stay occupied. He hopes that the west will accept this as a compromise and only hit him with sanctions.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:23
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Something like that. I believe they'll go further, but Western media has seeded the optics that occupying Kyiv is a war goal and therefore refraining from doing so, especially when you didn't want to do it anyway, works perfectly as a compromise to consolidate your other gains.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:29
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BoldFace posted:My current guess is that Putin will launch something that looks like an invasion of entire Ukraine, but when the smoke clears, only Donetsk and Luhansk will stay occupied. He hopes that the west will accept this as a compromise and only hit him with sanctions. "The West" is only going to react with sanctions whatever he does, because no one wants to start WW3 with nukes over Ukraine.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:42
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BoldFace posted:My current guess is that Putin will launch something that looks like an invasion of entire Ukraine, but when the smoke clears, only Donetsk and Luhansk will stay occupied. He hopes that the west will accept this as a compromise and only hit him with sanctions. What else would the West hit him with?
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Feb 20, 2022 17:42
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Trump posted:What else would the West hit him with?
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Feb 20, 2022 17:44
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GaussianCopula posted:"The West" is only going to react with sanctions whatever he does, because no one wants to start WW3 with nukes over Ukraine. He can hope that the sanctions for "only" taking some land in the east of the country would be merely symbolic.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:45
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Grouchio posted:A SWIFT ban? That's a sanction
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Feb 20, 2022 17:45
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Grouchio posted:A SWIFT ban?
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Feb 20, 2022 17:46
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Paladinus posted:
I think there did seem to be a real reduction in Belarus's ability to operate independently lately, but it is because of Luka clinging to power with violence after clearly losing the last election, not the current events... Though current events probably do illustrate how far it has fallen since I doubt he is interested in being part of all this. The Minsk agreements were in Minsk because in 2014-15 he could play at being neutral statesman, after all.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:52
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Grouchio posted:A SWIFT ban? It would be disruptive, but not something that Russia would be gravely worried about. Russia has its own independent payment system that currently works in Crimea, and there recently was a trial run of it for the entire country without SWIFT. Gas and oil are the only real pressure points for Russia, but obviously other countries also depend on Russian gas and oil.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:56
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OddObserver posted:I think there did seem to be a real reduction in Belarus's ability to operate independently lately, but it is because of Luka clinging to power with violence after clearly losing the last election, not the current events... Though current events probably do illustrate how far it has fallen since I doubt he is interested in being part of all this. The Minsk agreements were in Minsk because in 2014-15 he could play at being neutral statesman, after all. Belarusian economy under sanctions heavily depends on Russian loans through the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. And even there Russia seems to be reluctant to give more than what's needed to pay interest rates on previous loans, pushing for more concessions.
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Feb 20, 2022 18:00
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 A representation of the dastardly fin these Russians are always talking about WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 18:02
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Paladinus posted:It would be disruptive, but not something that Russia would be gravely worried about. Russia has its own independent payment system that currently works in Crimea, and there recently was a trial run of it for the entire country without SWIFT. Gas and oil are the only real pressure points for Russia, but obviously other countries also depend on Russian gas and oil. A SWIFT ban would be aimed at international banking, and would be quite effective.
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Feb 20, 2022 18:04
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https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1495443063438729219
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Feb 20, 2022 18:04
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"" Joint Forces Operation: 136 ceasefire violations yesterday. 2 Ukrainian servicemen killed, 5 wounded "" The totals keep getting magnified.
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Feb 20, 2022 18:08
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https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1495436428456644614
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Feb 20, 2022 18:08
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Safe to assume this is unrelated? I'd guess a job title of 'Russian Regime Enforcer' frequently ends in a riverside retirement?
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Feb 20, 2022 18:16
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https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1495409476798713858
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Feb 20, 2022 18:17
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Woooooow. Who is that statement for? Because pretty much anyone can disprove that.
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Feb 20, 2022 18:41
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Well gently caress https://mobile.twitter.com/rolltidebmz/status/1495436933312438273 If my prediction that this was a big bluff does not come true, I hope the earlier prediction that this would be the end of Putin does
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Feb 20, 2022 18:45
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Is this the Nazi militia?
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Feb 20, 2022 18:45
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A big flaming stink posted:Is this the Nazi militia? Russian Defense Ministry has put up a notice closing most of the Sea of Azov and airspace above it from midnight Feb 21 till Feb 26.
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Feb 20, 2022 18:48
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CommieGIR posted:Woooooow. Who is that statement for? Because pretty much anyone can disprove that. Yeah, that's the type of claim that would make even Dugin blush. There's really no context that makes that not a bonkers statement, but I am morbidly curious what it was anyway. Somaen posted:Well gently caress More anonymous U.S. intelligence sources. I wouldn't assume it's true until an invasion actually, verifiably happens. Majorian fucked around with this message at 18:52 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 18:48
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A big flaming stink posted:Is this the Nazi militia? No, the red outlined area is the Sea of Azov. A NOTAM is a notice to air missions. Temporary Danger Area - Surface to unlimited altitude. So I believe that tweet is saying there's a warning issued for all aviation that the area is dangerous at any altitude.
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Feb 20, 2022 18:51
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Majorian posted:Yeah, that's the type of claim that would make even Dugin blush. There's really no context that makes that not a bonkers statement, but I am morbidly curious what it was anyway. Yeah at this point, if the invasion is gonna happen, its gonna be spur of the moment. I don't think anyone is going to know the date for sure, and that may be by design.
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Feb 20, 2022 18:53
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A big flaming stink posted:Is this the Nazi militia? The sea is well known for its racist beliefs.
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Feb 20, 2022 18:53
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Wistful of Dollars posted:The sea is well known for its racist beliefs. The Knot Sea
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Feb 20, 2022 18:56
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https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1495441342545149956 It's becoming increasingly clear, imo, that Russia does not want to intervene unless this goes down exactly like Georgia '08 did. That could easily happen, but hopefully Zelensky will continue to prove himself to be a cooler head than Saakashvili.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:08
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah at this point, if the invasion is gonna happen, its gonna be spur of the moment. I don't think anyone is going to know the date for sure, and that may be by design. I'm not a military guy but I'm pretty sure huge invasions don't happen spontaneously being lead by a heroic protagonist to charge especially in a highly vertical authoritarian structure. I'm willing to believe that because so far the US intelligence has shown that their sigint was good, e.g. the chlorine false flag
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Feb 20, 2022 19:10
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Majorian posted:https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1495441342545149956 That's gotta be interesting for the insurgents, but to be fair the insurgents don't hold power in Donbass, most of the ruling groups are Russian so I doubt them getting upset about this would mean anything. Somaen posted:I'm not a military guy but I'm pretty sure huge invasions don't happen spontaneously being lead by a heroic protagonist to charge especially in a highly vertical authoritarian structure. I'm willing to believe that because so far the US intelligence has shown that their sigint was good, e.g. the chlorine false flag Maybe, but Putin is also the sort of KGB Troll that would release attack orders and then retract them once the US reported on them just to fluster people in the intel community.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:10
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah at this point, if the invasion is gonna happen, its gonna be spur of the moment. I don't think anyone is going to know the date for sure, and that may be by design. If Ukraine had let slip with their artillery response or any of the false flags had stuck we would already be seeing Russian airstrikes.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:12
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Somaen posted:I'm not a military guy but I'm pretty sure huge invasions don't happen spontaneously being lead by a heroic protagonist to charge especially in a highly vertical authoritarian structure. I'm willing to believe that because so far the US intelligence has shown that their sigint was good, e.g. the chlorine false flag Yes the US goal is to dare Russia to prove them wrong. Russia calls it fear mongering but the point is to be "wrong" to give Russia the off ramp if they want it.
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