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Majorian posted:It's becoming increasingly clear, imo, that Russia does not want to intervene unless this goes down exactly like Georgia '08 did. It is going down that way. Russia will invent a causus belli out of whole cloth and attack Ukraine unprovoked.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:13
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:It is going down that way. Russia will invent a causus belli out of whole cloth and attack Ukraine unprovoked. Okay, well, we'll see, won't we? Somaen posted:I'm not a military guy but I'm pretty sure huge invasions don't happen spontaneously being lead by a heroic protagonist to charge especially in a highly vertical authoritarian structure. I'm willing to believe that because so far the US intelligence has shown that their sigint was good, e.g. the chlorine false flag David Martin has a history of sounding off uncritically when the IC leaks something to him. See, for example: https://twitter.com/NorahODonnell/status/1493690041465548800
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Feb 20, 2022 19:14
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Well now that would be fun
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Feb 20, 2022 19:18
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https://t.me/tass_agency/110384 Speaking of Georgia. Claims emerging of Ukrainian forces shelling Rostov.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:21
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If Russia were genuinely concerned about a hypothetical attack on the Donbas then we would have spent the last three months talking about the frontline on the Donbas, not a mix of 'oh we have absolutely no intention of invading Ukraine but give us guarantees that it will never join NATO or peace might break down in some unspecified way'.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:21
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Somaen posted:I'm not a military guy but I'm pretty sure huge invasions don't happen spontaneously being lead by a heroic protagonist to charge especially in a highly vertical authoritarian structure. I'm willing to believe that because so far the US intelligence has shown that their sigint was good, e.g. the chlorine false flag Did you ignore the part where they've said that the invasion is going to happen tomorrow for litterally weeks and it hasn't happened yet? Dont let the CIA gaslight you
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Feb 20, 2022 19:25
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Alchenar posted:If Russia were genuinely concerned about a hypothetical attack on the Donbas then we would have spent the last three months talking about the frontline on the Donbas, not a mix of 'oh we have absolutely no intention of invading Ukraine but give us guarantees that it will never join NATO or peace might break down in some unspecified way'. And that's what they did, back early last year.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:26
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https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1495464102415802370
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Feb 20, 2022 19:26
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FishBulbia posted:https://t.me/tass_agency/110384 Two missiles did explode in Rostov oblast. It happened before multiple times, too, and every time they opened a criminal investigation that resulted in nothing.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:29
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FishBulbia posted:https://t.me/tass_agency/110384 TACC is Russian state-owned news, so I am uncertain of the veracity... but a Russian state media outlet saying this isn't, you know, good. I'm still hoping for no invasion but I'm not happy with this.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:32
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Terminal autist posted:Did you ignore the part where they've said that the invasion is going to happen tomorrow for litterally weeks and it hasn't happened yet? Dont let the CIA gaslight you Except you know we can see all the tick tok videos of Russian troops and equipment moving into place.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:37
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:It is going down that way. Russia will invent a causus belli out of whole cloth and attack Ukraine unprovoked. They've already tried a couple, but they haven't really been convincing.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:45
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Terminal autist posted:Did you ignore the part where they've said that the invasion is going to happen tomorrow for litterally weeks and it hasn't happened yet? Dont let the CIA gaslight you If they aren't planning on invading, why have they positioned such a substantial portion of their military surrounding Ukraine? What benefit does that have for Russia?
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Feb 20, 2022 19:46
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CommieGIR posted:Maybe, but Putin is also the sort of KGB Troll that would release attack orders and then retract them once the US reported on them just to fluster people in the intel community. I still think this is pretty likely, the pre-recorded evacuation crisis video was stored in a folder called 'mongoose throw' (I've seen some translate it as 'mongoose strike' instead)  Mongooses (mongeese?) are animals that hunt a lot like small cats, they tire prey out with feigned attacks. The huge troop movements could just be a feint to exhaust the Ukrainians and make accomplishing some other goal easier, with fake invasion plans being fed to the americans to make them look stupid when nothing happens Alternatively, engineering a crisis in Donbass could be a bid to distract the army from an attack on Kyiv and/or Kharkiv, but that still seems insane to me. Attacking Kyiv would horrify the world, including a lot of Russians. It would turn a lot of reliably anti-nato actors against putin https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1494818918086631425
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Feb 20, 2022 19:49
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Terminal autist posted:Did you ignore the part where they've said that the invasion is going to happen tomorrow for litterally weeks and it hasn't happened yet? Dont let the CIA gaslight you If this is the case, I'm sure you can provide this evidence of the CIA saying the invasion is going to happen tomorrow for literal weeks.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:51
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Flavahbeast posted:I still think this is pretty likely, the pre-recorded evacuation crisis video was stored in a folder called 'mongoose throw' (I've seen some translate it as 'mongoose strike' instead) "throw" is the most common meaning of the word, but it's also used for things like shots in (ice) hockey and... rapid military movements. And, well, I don't think mongoose are fond of paying catch, so "strike" is a very reasonable translation, and probably more helpful than the literal one. Edit: come to think of it, it's also used for some animal attacks, e.g. Cobra's, which is probably what was intended. Mongoose just don't come up much, so I am not sure what the deal with their attacks is, though. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 19:56
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Plastic_Gargoyle posted:If they aren't planning on invading, why have they positioned such a substantial portion of their military surrounding Ukraine? What benefit does that have for Russia? Posturing, if they wanted to invade why haven't they? Discendo Vox posted:If this is the case, I'm sure you can provide this evidence of the CIA saying the invasion is going to happen tomorrow for literal weeks. https://www.google.com/search?q=rus...ih=718&dpr=2.63 Sorry professor, replace CIA with unnamed NATO source. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 20, 2022 19:56
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DNR/LNR forcing men of age 18-55 into conscription https://mobile.twitter.com/CurrentTimeTv/status/1495409835290116097 Terminal autist posted:Did you ignore the part where they've said that the invasion is going to happen tomorrow for litterally weeks and it hasn't happened yet? Dont let the CIA gaslight you Don't post at me tankie moron (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 20, 2022 19:57
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If the US hasn't been yelling shrilly that Russia is going to definitely launch their invasion "tomorrow" every day for the last month, then why do I keep insisting that it has?
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Feb 20, 2022 19:59
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Flavahbeast posted:I still think this is pretty likely, the pre-recorded evacuation crisis video was stored in a folder called 'mongoose throw' (I've seen some translate it as 'mongoose strike' instead) I mean, just the whole staging for invasion has actually increased support for NATO among a lot of countries which, I'd really be surprised if anybody expected any different?
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Feb 20, 2022 20:00
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Terminal autist posted:Posturing, if they wanted to invade why haven't they? This doesn't appear to be "tomorrow" either; making GBS threads out a search for the phrase "russian invasion imminent" is also getting you a lot of hits for caveated claims like "could be", "may be", or "looks". You're misrepresenting something then saying the thing you made up is someone else gaslighting us, then misrepresenting it to us again.
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Feb 20, 2022 20:00
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1495463308404695043?s=20&t=nOJtzAlnz2IyrHNU9aWLEA More evidence of young men getting wrapped up into Putin's Civ game.
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Feb 20, 2022 20:02
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1495463308404695043?s=20&t=nOJtzAlnz2IyrHNU9aWLEA I know Miller, but is there a reason to think this text source is credible other than that he's sharing it?
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Feb 20, 2022 20:10
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More people are casting doubt on David Martin's claim: https://twitter.com/dpeleschuk/status/1495475211038334979
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Feb 20, 2022 20:12
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Discendo Vox posted:I know Miller, but is there a reason to think this text source is credible other than that he's sharing it? It's Eastern Europe: All bets are off on credibility to a certain extent. It's more that Miller has on the ground contacts in the Donbas adding context to the bigger story.
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Feb 20, 2022 20:14
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Discendo Vox posted:I know Miller, but is there a reason to think this text source is credible other than that he's sharing it? After 7 years of constant war the people not already in the militia are probably not thrilled by the prospect of getting conscripted into invading Ukraine?
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Feb 20, 2022 20:15
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https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1495474850458226689?t=NQTt3vPU4Snz0mtrJ0UiZA&s=19 Hmmm
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Feb 20, 2022 20:18
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GaussianCopula posted:After 7 years of constant war the people not already in the militia are probably not thrilled by the prospect of getting conscripted into invading Ukraine? Sure, it's plausible, but I just don't know anything about the mediating twitter account that he's also mediating. I can't translate the source text so the characterizing language, like "brutally", makes me want to get more context and apply more scrutiny.
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Feb 20, 2022 20:19
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1495474850458226689?t=NQTt3vPU4Snz0mtrJ0UiZA&s=19 Literally the last person in Russia anyone should listen to on anything of importance. There is never a time Zhirinovsky is not making poo poo up.
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Feb 20, 2022 20:20
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1495474850458226689?t=NQTt3vPU4Snz0mtrJ0UiZA&s=19 That's why they had him killed with COVID, it all makes sense now e: goodamn, he actually recovered. I didn't know he was still alive GABA ghoul fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 20:23
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Discendo Vox posted:I know Miller, but is there a reason to think this text source is credible other than that he's sharing it? https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1495382620137480192
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Feb 20, 2022 20:25
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Not just sounds anymore. https://twitter.com/PLnewstoday/status/1495485006306811913
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Feb 20, 2022 20:53
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BoldFace posted:Not just sounds anymore. video comes from a finnish guy in lugansk who is also claiming ukraine launched infantry attacks that killed civilians? at least per google translate not so sure about this source lol
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Feb 20, 2022 21:00
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Are conscripts forced at gunpoint and abduction to join usually considered reliable?
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Feb 20, 2022 21:01
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BoldFace posted:Not just sounds anymore. 5 sec with google leads to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MV-media quote:MV-media, also known as MV??!!, formerly Mitä Vittua? ("What the gently caress?") and MV-lehti is a Finnish alternative media site based in Spain and from 2018 Finland. It was founded by Ilja Janitskin in 2014. So Russian fake news bullshit
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Feb 20, 2022 21:04
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eke out posted:video comes from a finnish guy in lugansk who is also claiming ukraine launched infantry attacks that killed civilians? at least per google translate Oh, he's definitely on Russia's side, but that doesn't automatically mean that the video is fake.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:04
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Are conscripts forced at gunpoint and abduction to join usually considered reliable? If their only job is to absorb bullets for the more important people, sure. Ikasuhito fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 21:06
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Yeah, we'd need to see where the shells are landing. If its anything like the Kindergarten attack, the one they claimed Ukraine did, that somehow hit a Kindergarten on the Ukrainian side....
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Feb 20, 2022 21:06
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A big flaming stink posted:Is this the Nazi militia? The sea of Azov is a sea.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:07
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BoldFace posted:Oh, he's definitely on Russia's side, but that doesn't automatically mean that the video is fake. may be real but seems like everyone has been saying the shelling has overwhelmingly been going in the reverse direction, except this one pro-putin guy with purported video of more intense bombing coming from Ukraine
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Feb 20, 2022 21:07
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