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How easy is it to determine the direction artillery fire is coming from at a distance at night?
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Feb 20, 2022 21:13
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Flavahbeast posted:I still think this is pretty likely, the pre-recorded evacuation crisis video was stored in a folder called 'mongoose throw' (I've seen some translate it as 'mongoose strike' instead) You are overthinking, its because Rikki Tikki Tavi (mongoose from Kipling's story and popular Soviet cartoon) saved kids from snakes and Nagaina, the lead snake from the story sounds similar to Ukraina.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:14
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BoldFace posted:Oh, he's definitely on Russia's side, but that doesn't automatically mean that the video is fake. Given the situation, it is much better to verify that the evidence is real before posting it rather than everyone flooding the thread with unreliable bullshit.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:16
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495491699661025290 This will certainly not lead to accusations and conspiracy theories if anything happens.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:16
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Owling Howl posted:How easy is it to determine the direction artillery fire is coming from at a distance at night? The video can also be from 7 years ago. Or not from Luhansk. Or both. I'd at the very least wait for OSCE's report.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:17
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Deteriorata posted:Given the situation, it is much better to verify that the evidence is real before posting it rather than everyone flooding the thread with unreliable bullshit. Here is a thread with 5 seemingly independent videos of the shelling. Personally, I think this is still the same kind of Russian/separatist provocation that has been going on for several nights already. Just more intense and closer to the cities than before. https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1495484981522714630
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Feb 20, 2022 21:25
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GaussianCopula posted:5 sec with google leads to What is your reasoning that it's Russian?
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Feb 20, 2022 21:31
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Koos Group posted:What is your reasoning that it's Russian? Beside the fact that their page reads like RT.com getting jailed for defaming a journalist, whose biggest achievement is reporting on Russian Troll factories kinda is a giveaway https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45902496
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Feb 20, 2022 21:37
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Koos Group posted:What is your reasoning that it's Russian? Janus Putkonen is an insane Putinist far-right nutcase. Whether he was directly (or indirectly) funded by Russia, and to what extent, doesn't really matter massively here imo From that BBC article: [Putkonen's] "MV-Lehti is a well-known right-wing, anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic, pro-Russian publication." Also, if Putkonen is now spending time in Donetsk/Luhansk, he would be there as a guest of the pro-Putin forces (so he would now be bankrolled directly by Russia)
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Feb 20, 2022 21:42
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Koos Group posted:What is your reasoning that it's Russian? As a Finn I can confirm MV-Lehti is a completely bonkers bullshit source, they've been hit with multiple lawsuits in Finland for various reasons, stuff like hate speech, harassment etc. Nothing they post should be trusted.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:42
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Majorian posted:Oh sure, Finland wasn't really neutral - "Finlandization" became a word for a reason, after all. But there was influence from both blocs throughout the Cold War: I don't see why anyone would trust Putin's Russia with something like that though. Even assuming a suddenly trustworthy Putin, Ukraine is not nearly as remote and low-population as Finland has always been; the geography is completely different. Ukraine is roughly twice the area of Finland, and 100% of Ukraine's area is in a potentially interesting place w.r.t. Russian-European connections, as opposed to I dunno maybe 10% of Finland (southern and some western coasts and Åland). So in any kind of long-term planning for war... I mean yeah, a truly neutral Ukraine might be kinda nice for Russia, but it just seems a bit unlikely to me that neutrality would be enough for Russia in the case of Ukraine. And of course, since we do know what Putin is like, why would Putin not strongly prefer to just subjugate Ukraine instead? Or de facto annex half of it (and we also know he already has started with this, with Crimea and the "civil" war regions)?
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Feb 20, 2022 21:43
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SpiritOfLenin posted:As a Finn I can confirm MV-Lehti is a completely bonkers bullshit source, they've been hit with multiple lawsuits in Finland for various reasons, stuff like hate speech, harassment etc. Nothing they post should be trusted. Good to hear from someone familiar with it, thank you.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:43
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SpiritOfLenin posted:As a Finn I can confirm MV-Lehti is a completely bonkers bullshit source, they've been hit with multiple lawsuits in Finland for various reasons, stuff like hate speech, harassment etc. Nothing they post should be trusted. I (as a Finn) just want to double confirm this. That crew is unreliable to the point that if they promised sun rising tomorrow, I'd get nervous and buy extra batteries to my flashlights. Not even exaggerating much. They are so unbelievably bad and obvious pro-Russian liars and that I have hard time wrapping my head around it.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:50
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eke out posted:may be real but seems like everyone has been saying the shelling has overwhelmingly been going in the reverse direction, except this one pro-putin guy with purported video of more intense bombing coming from Ukraine That is definitely the sound of outgoing artillery from the position of the camera.
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Feb 20, 2022 21:54
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https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1495506412293738496
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Feb 20, 2022 22:13
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Valiantman posted:I (as a Finn) just want to double confirm this. That crew is unreliable to the point that if they promised sun rising tomorrow, I'd get nervous and buy extra batteries to my flashlights. Not even exaggerating much. They are so unbelievably bad and obvious pro-Russian liars and that I have hard time wrapping my head around it. Same. I trust absolutely nothing published by Putkonen, Bäckmann and that crowd. I think Putkonen had some sort of a position in either Donetsk or Luhansk and was, at one point, trying to recruit Finns to fight for the Putinists.
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Feb 20, 2022 22:37
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https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1495515212388212736?s=21 Interesting idea from the “Extremely costly bluff” camp
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Feb 20, 2022 22:49
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1495515212388212736?s=21 Gone already, what was it? e: ah, this? https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1495516319307149314 Yeah it's an interesting idea, although I think Putin could probably provide an ample enough distraction without investing so many resources on the border. Feels like overkill. Majorian fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 22:50
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probably this: edit: yea that
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Feb 20, 2022 22:53
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Suggesting that Putin is actually about to do a military takeover of Belarus seems extremely outlandish. Or hat he's diverting attention from Navalny, he doesn't give a crap.
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Feb 20, 2022 22:55
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Majorian posted:Gone already, what was it? Pointing out that reintegrating Ukraine would be extremely difficult because of its size and nationalism while deepening the integration of Belarus that we’re already seeing would be much easier and more valuable strategically since it makes it easier to strike at the baltics and Poland. It’s basically theorizing that the bluff is actually Putin slipping a bunch of poo poo under the radar while everyone’s focused on Ukraine like Navalny apparently had a court appearance today. I don’t agree with it IMO I think Putin’s made it clear at this point that even if Ukraine isn’t super economically or militarily valuable he possesses an emotional attachment to it because of Kievan Rus and his own Russian nationalism, in other words he’s not acting by realpolitik when it comes to Ukraine but by idealism and personal emotions. Russias also propped up lukashenko and hosed with navalny in the past and gotten a lot less international pushback so if it is a feint it’s a poorly thought out one. It’s still an interesting idea
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Feb 20, 2022 22:57
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GaussianCopula posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495491699661025290 My guess is that the Russian public is increasingly not taking the bait if there's talk of false flag terror attacks in the homeland. Also, shades of the conspiracy theories surrounding the apartment bombings that led to the Second Chechen War.
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Feb 20, 2022 22:58
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If Belarus is already a pliant enough ally that they're allowing Russia to station this number of troops in their territory for potential offensive operations, I think it takes a truly galaxy brain reading to think Putin stands enough to gain from actually overthrowing Lukashenko to make it worth signaling to every other Russian client or potential ally that allowing Russian troops on your territory is just going to backfire dramatically on you. Russia has enough difficulty finding friends as it is, and if they were going to murk some idiot it probably would have been Assad a long time ago.
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Feb 20, 2022 23:07
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Sinteres posted:If Belarus is already a pliant enough ally that they're allowing Russia to station this number of troops in their territory for potential offensive operations, I think it takes a truly galaxy brain reading to think Putin stands enough to gain from actually overthrowing Lukashenko to make it worth signaling to every other Russian client or potential ally that allowing Russian troops on your territory is just going to backfire dramatically on you. Russia has enough difficulty finding friends as it is, and if they were going to murk some idiot it probably would have been Assad a long time ago. Yeah this kind of thing would send virtually all of Central Asia running into the arms of China, and Azerbaijan would solidify it's already close bonds with Turkey.
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Feb 20, 2022 23:10
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Putin finding a face-saving win by indulging in Russia's old habit of invading it's own allies would probably be one of the better outcomes from where we are now all things considered.
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Feb 20, 2022 23:11
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Terminal autist posted:Posturing, if they wanted to invade why haven't they? Yeah, sure, the CIA is bad, the US is up to no good, I don't want to bother disputing any of that. Whatever. But what the heck is Russia up to, if not an earnest attempt at an invasion? I don't see how Ukraine is any less likely to want to join NATO after all this, and I can't see how any observer would be less sympathetic to letting Ukraine join. I don't see what benefit there is to threatening force. It has most of the downsides of going ahead and using force, without any obvious ability to get Putin what he wants. This is a serious question because actually using force also doesn't make a lot of sense to me, on the balance, so I'm trying to understand what folks think is going on. The folks spending most of their time being critical of the US response haven't been very clear about what they think Russia is actually doing here.
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Feb 20, 2022 23:26
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Peaceful defensive exercises in the territory of themselves and their close fraternal allies, a display of anti-imperialist unity in the face of NATO's warmongering unrelated to the Ukrainian civil war.
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Feb 20, 2022 23:30
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Morrow posted:Peaceful defensive exercises in the territory of themselves and their close fraternal allies, a display of anti-imperialist unity in the face of NATO's warmongering unrelated to the Ukrainian civil war. Were you born this dumb or did you have to work for it? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 20, 2022 23:40
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Captain Melo posted:Were you born this dumb or did you have to work for it? I think they are being sarcastic. I hope. I know it's really hard to say on the internet these days, though.
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Feb 20, 2022 23:41
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Why is GaussianCopula, a literal Nazi, allowed to post? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 20, 2022 23:42
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OddObserver posted:I think they are being sarcastic. I hope. Complete agreement. Right now, Putin has 180K-ish (I've lost count how often this number has changed) troops and armor around Ukraine, massive naval exercises in the Sea of Azov cutting off direct access to most of the Ukrainian ports, you have the separatists in LPR/DPR force conscripting fighting aged males, you have routine blamings of the Ukrainian army hitting civilian areas with artillery. Like at what point does common sense tell you this is anything BUT the prelude to invasion?
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Feb 20, 2022 23:44
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I am being sarcastic, Poe's Law and all that. How do you justify a massive military mobilization on your neighbors border? You don't, you blame America because you're an intellectually bankrupt leftist who hasn't updated their playbook since Glenn Greenwald left the country.
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Feb 20, 2022 23:58
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Sinteres posted:If Belarus is already a pliant enough ally that they're allowing Russia to station this number of troops in their territory for potential offensive operations, I think it takes a truly galaxy brain reading to think Putin stands enough to gain from actually overthrowing Lukashenko to make it worth signaling to every other Russian client or potential ally that allowing Russian troops on your territory is just going to backfire dramatically on you. Russia has enough difficulty finding friends as it is, and if they were going to murk some idiot it probably would have been Assad a long time ago. Isn't that what they did with Afghanistan when they has a go in '79?
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Feb 20, 2022 23:58
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"" Two US officials tell the reporting below is accurate: that the US has intelligence that Russian troops were given orders to proceed with an invasion. The intelligence led to Biden's statement Friday. Washington Post and NYT also reporting "" In combination with the earlier stuff that was posting about unit markings being covered we may be about to see it. "" White House official: "The President had a family-related issue that was going to take him to Wilmington, DE tonight but he will no longer be going and will remain in Washington, DC tonight" ""
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Feb 21, 2022 00:01
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Comstar posted:Isn't that what they did with Afghanistan when they has a go in '79? I assume they learned something from the experience, and I think Russia's in a far worse diplomatic position than the Soviets were, with more viable alternatives for countries to turn to as well, so they can less afford to alienate their allies with old school poo poo like that, particularly when there's nothing really to be gained from doing so in the first place. If Putin really wanted Lukashenko gone he probably could have done it during the protests anyway without all this massive military buildup.
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Feb 21, 2022 00:05
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Sinteres posted:If Belarus is already a pliant enough ally that they're allowing Russia to station this number of troops in their territory for potential offensive operations, I think it takes a truly galaxy brain reading to think Putin stands enough to gain from actually overthrowing Lukashenko to make it worth signaling to every other Russian client or potential ally that allowing Russian troops on your territory is just going to backfire dramatically on you. Russia has enough difficulty finding friends as it is, and if they were going to murk some idiot it probably would have been Assad a long time ago. You're probably right, but look at it this way: It was daylight madness to let conscripts play with Buk launchers near a civil aviation flyway. It was madness to escalate the situation in Ukraine by massing an army on the borders and madness to jeopardize Nord Stream 2 and Russian standing in Europe and elsewhere in doing so, and madness to mass an invasion force in the middle of a global Pandemic if this is all a bluff, or even if it isn't. Presumptions of sanity are therefore not given. Why should they be?
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Feb 21, 2022 00:38
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Sinteres posted:I assume they learned something from the experience, and I think Russia's in a far worse diplomatic position than the Soviets were, with more viable alternatives for countries to turn to as well, so they can less afford to alienate their allies with old school poo poo like that, particularly when there's nothing really to be gained from doing so in the first place. If Putin really wanted Lukashenko gone he probably could have done it during the protests anyway without all this massive military buildup. I highly doubt we'll see another Amin situation where Andropov's fever dreams invent a CIA threat and they end up whacking a guy who is genuinely confused as to why.
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Feb 21, 2022 00:41
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Sinteres posted:If Belarus is already a pliant enough ally that they're allowing Russia to station this number of troops in their territory for potential offensive operations, I think it takes a truly galaxy brain reading to think Putin stands enough to gain from actually overthrowing Lukashenko to make it worth signaling to every other Russian client or potential ally that allowing Russian troops on your territory is just going to backfire dramatically on you. Russia has enough difficulty finding friends as it is, and if they were going to murk some idiot it probably would have been Assad a long time ago. Nothing Russia is doing right now is very wise and is unlikely to result in much in the way of any gains. Even the annexation of Crimea and assisting in the Donbass has questionable returns of value.
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Feb 21, 2022 00:43
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:You're probably right, but look at it this way: i don't really think anything putin is doing is insane or irrational. at the moment, he has a lot of leverage and hasn't lost anything. invading your ally for no reason, on the other hand, is irrational.
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Feb 21, 2022 00:45
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CommieGIR posted:Nothing Russia is doing right now is very wise and is unlikely to result in much in the way of any gains. Even the annexation of Crimea and assisting in the Donbass has questionable returns of value. You obviously don't think Russia's doing all of this to overthrow Lukashenko either, so I don't know what point you're trying to make with that response.
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Feb 21, 2022 00:46
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