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Even Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is getting in on it: https://twitter.com/BulletinAtomic/status/1495587452127481862?s=20&t=gwsJF7txrioq7P_ymXKt_Q
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Feb 21, 2022 03:43
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eke out posted:seems like the US side thinks they agreed to something that's not really likely to happen First we'll have to see the Kremlin confirm it, and since it'd take a couple weeks to set up and Russia has already begun maneuvering their forces into combat positions we'll see stuff start backing off if it's legit. The past several high-level meetings failed to de-escalate, however, so I wouldn't hold high hopes for this either.
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Feb 21, 2022 03:46
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at some point this is moving into zeno's paradox territory, where the war is increasingly close but never actually occurs. everything happening right now is pretty consistent with russia fabricating a security crisis in order to obtain concessions from the west. they are causing actual harm to ukraine and nato by just sitting in their barracks drinking vodka or whatever, occasionally driving armored vehicles from point a to point b. so now we have a couple summits coming up, russia gets some legally-binding guarantees from the west in exchange for causing less bullshit in ukraine and not invading, putin goes home as a hero for being so strong that the west folded to him while biden gets to claim he stood up to russia and averted a war. everyone's a winner. optimistic, perhaps, but seems more likely to me than an actual invasion at this point.
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Feb 21, 2022 03:46
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Conspiratiorist posted:But then you aren't talking about invading "in it's entirety", Raenir. That's the part that involves taking cities. Here's the thing, I'm assuming we're talking about reservists having to fight off an insurrection/partisans. The fact is that partisans I don't think are going to be an immediate concern. I don't recall them getting active immediately in Iraq after all. It takes time, and isolated people grabbing guns or soldiers disappearing into the countryside, it will take time before they'd organize and be active on a level where reservists are having to deal with that. By which point I'd expect the war to already be over in the worst case scenario of a decisive Russian victory and rapid advances.
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Feb 21, 2022 03:50
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Concerned Citizen posted:at some point this is moving into zeno's paradox territory, where the war is increasingly close but never actually occurs. It's optimistic, sure, but almost any other series of actions seems... totally loving insane, when you game out the tit-for-tat?
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Feb 21, 2022 03:52
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Concerned Citizen posted:they are causing actual harm to ukraine and nato by just sitting in their barracks drinking vodka or whatever, occasionally driving armored vehicles from point a to point b. This is the largest force concentration the world has seen since the Iraq War, mustering troops and equipment from all across Russian territory. The units were forward deployed previously, and as of last night are now moved directly into border assault positions in vehicles fully armed, fueled, with combat camo and designator markings. It's not dudes leaving their barracks to take IFVs for a stroll. ED: I'm forgetting Russia creating a refugee crisis on its own border by evacuating the separatist republics just to "own the NATOs". Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 03:54
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coelomate posted:It's optimistic, sure, but almost any other series of actions seems... totally loving insane, when you game out the tit-for-tat? right, it seems like a bluff is nothing but upside for russia. they just sit troops there and watch the west sweat until they give up stuff russia wants. whereas invasions and especially a strike on kiev contain significant downsides and i'm not sure it's really worth it. the annexation of the entirety of ukraine is impossible off the table. a partial occupation is plausible but would result in an entirely hostile western ukraine rump state on their new frontier, plus significant new sanctions. installing and propping up a new russia-friendly government in ukraine would be a massive financial investment that is likely beyond russia's means. but threatening an invasion that you don't intend to carry out? especially one that you can say later, if it doesn't work out, that you had said all along wasn't going to happen? why not? Conspiratiorist posted:This is the largest force concentration the world has seen since the Iraq War, mustering troops and equipment from all across Russian territory. The units were forward deployed previously, and as of last night are now moved directly into border assault positions in vehicles fully armed, fueled, with combat camo and designator markings. i mean, the military exercises are an obvious ruse. it was a political decision to put those troops there, that doesn't make it anything other than a manufactured crisis. you would need to do that in order to make the threat credible. that's my point, they don't need to actually do an invasion to extract concessions. they just sit there all menacingly while the west sweats, and then russia loses literally nothing for having done that. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 04:07 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 03:59
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So it looks like Russian troops in Belarus aren't leaving. https://twitter.com/PhilipPlickert/status/1495524384852910084
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Feb 21, 2022 04:05
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https://twitter.com/carolinerkenny/status/1495558039646187521 This, uh...this feels like an exaggeration. The media is losing its drat mind.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:14
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Concerned Citizen posted:i mean, the military exercises are an obvious ruse. it was a political decision to put those troops there, that doesn't make it anything other than a manufactured crisis. you would need to do that in order to make the threat credible. that's my point, they don't need to actually do an invasion to extract concessions. they just sit there all menacingly while the west sweats, and then russia loses literally nothing for having done that. There's the cost associated in deploying troops, particularly reservists. Loss in fuel spent as well as from being taken out of depot conditions, and same goes for vehicles, equipment, and ammo, a lot of which is hard to replace or irreplaceable. I never did tally it but the cost of having the dudes drive from point A to point B and sit on their rear end in the loving Winter for 4 months is going to cause the Russian military procurement problems for years, and that's without getting into the economic damage Russia suffered itself from market war panics, or the domestic optics of withdrawing after getting this far into banging into the "Donbas is being genocided" drum for a couple months. All for... what concessions? Russia opened with non-starters, nothing has been fruitful, and the deployment window is being stretched thin due to the wear and tear both on the troops and aforementioned equipment degradation. Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 04:19 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 04:17
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Majorian posted:https://twitter.com/carolinerkenny/status/1495558039646187521 I genuinely think someone who says something like that shouldn't be invited back to speak really anywhere because it's both embarrassing and insulting. Like that's not a difference of opinion, or even the usual bullshit Americans do where every leader they don't like is Hitler--it's actually minimizing Hitler's atrocities by suggesting what Putin may do now is somehow even worse.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:21
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Sinteres posted:I genuinely think someone who says something like that shouldn't be invited back to speak really anywhere because it's both embarrassing and insulting. Like that's not a difference of opinion, or even the usual bullshit Americans do where every leader they don't like is Hitler--it's actually minimizing Hitler's atrocities by suggesting what Putin may do now is somehow even worse. The number of Hitler comparisons now in last 72 hours of media is giving me flashbacks to media ahead of Iraq War build up with Saddam. This is not a good thing and feels like a pretext for major US involvement
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Feb 21, 2022 04:25
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Bidens ruled it out explicitly and Fox News is trying to get us to come in on Russia’s side instead of ukraines. There’s no appetite on either side for a direct war with Russia.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:27
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Majorian posted:https://twitter.com/carolinerkenny/status/1495558039646187521 American history education about WW2 is even worse than Russian.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:28
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Brogeoisie posted:The number of Hitler comparisons now in last 72 hours of media is giving me flashbacks to media ahead of Iraq War build up with Saddam. This is not a good thing and feels like a pretext for major US involvement The US is not getting involved in this. Quit fantasizing about it.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:28
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Brogeoisie posted:The number of Hitler comparisons now in last 72 hours of media is giving me flashbacks to media ahead of Iraq War build up with Saddam. This is not a good thing and feels like a pretext for major US involvement The US isn't going to intervene militarily no matter how insane the media wants to go, but they're really really not crowning themselves in glory with all of this hysteria. Like that tweet isn't just a clip of some rear end in a top hat saying something stupid, it's a producer at CNN sharing it with the world as coverage they're presumably proud of.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:29
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Sinteres posted:I genuinely think someone who says something like that shouldn't be invited back to speak really anywhere because it's both embarrassing and insulting. Like that's not a difference of opinion, or even the usual bullshit Americans do where every leader they don't like is Hitler--it's actually minimizing Hitler's atrocities by suggesting what Putin may do now is somehow even worse. Unfortunately US media is profit motivated and this gets profit.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:30
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Yeah, I think the media overreactions are more of a ratings-driven phenomenon than anything else. The Winter Olympics this year was apparently a ratings disaster for NBC, so they and the rest of the mainstream news media is desperate for a major story.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:33
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Conspiratiorist posted:There's the cost associated in deploying troops, particularly reservists. Loss in fuel spent as well as from being taken out of depot conditions, and same goes for vehicles, equipment, and ammo, a lot of which is hard to replace or irreplaceable. i mean, they hold military exercises anyway. obviously there is a literal financial cost to having troops deployed, but also that is what they're for. plus, i will also point out that all the reports of russian troops degrading are extremely unconfirmed anecdotes, not something incontrovertibly based in fact. the domestic optics are fine, they said they weren't going to invade and if they don't invade nothing has changed. and for what concessions? who knows. russian goals are deliberately opaque, but certainly a treaty guarantee to prevent ukraine's accession into nato in exchange for something like russia ending its involvement is something that is possible and would not occur without a manufactured crisis to goad it into occurring. i would argue that "all that.. and for what???" applies moreso to an invasion of ukraine than the idea that russia is holding out for concessions. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 04:37 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 04:33
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Bidens ruled it out explicitly and Fox News is trying to get us to come in on Russia’s side instead of ukraines. There’s no appetite on either side for a direct war with Russia. I assume the Russians would not want to be in a direct war with themselves, true.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:41
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Concerned Citizen posted:i mean, they hold military exercises anyway. obviously there is a literal financial cost to having troops deployed, but also that is what they're for. plus, i will also point out that all the reports of russian troops degrading are extremely unconfirmed anecdotes, not something incontrovertibly based in fact. the domestic optics are fine, they said they weren't going to invade and if they don't invade nothing has changed. There is no evidence that the west is going to offer Russia any concessions at all. Only sanctions and other punishments if they invade. Putin may be hoping for some concessions in exchange for not invading, but I sincerely doubt he's going to get any. The west can just wait him out. Spring is coming and the ground is going to turn to mush while his units piss away millions of rubles staying deployed without doing anything.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:43
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Majorian posted:Yeah, I think the media overreactions are more of a ratings-driven phenomenon than anything else. The Winter Olympics this year was apparently a ratings disaster for NBC, so they and the rest of the mainstream news media is desperate for a major story. Article posted:These Olympics were a disaster for the network: a buzz-free, hermetically-sealed event in an authoritarian country a half-day’s time zone away, where the enduring images will be the emotional meltdown of Russian teen-agers after a drug-tainted figure skating competition and a bereft Mikaela Shiffrin, sitting on a ski slope wondering what went wrong. Well...that's an excerpt...
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Feb 21, 2022 04:43
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https://mobile.twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1495456671442903047 https://mobile.twitter.com/JustenCharters/status/1495593402473218048 Footage of field hospital being set up in Belgorod.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:44
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Putin’s going to inexplicably invade in the spring mud just to fully commit to his mind games poo poo
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Feb 21, 2022 04:45
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Deteriorata posted:There is no evidence that the west is going to offer Russia any concessions at all. Only sanctions and other punishments if they invade. Well we are agreeing to a high level summit, seems like that's evidence we are willing to discuss something. If it doesn't work for Russia, oh well, they can just keep doing what they were doing pre-deployment. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 04:54 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 04:50
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Concerned Citizen posted:Well we are agreeing to a high level summit, seems like that's evidence we are willing to discuss something. Only if they don't attack Ukraine in the meantime, which is no small possibility.
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Feb 21, 2022 04:55
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Deteriorata posted:There is no evidence that the west is going to offer Russia any concessions at all. Only sanctions and other punishments if they invade. as soon as NS2 fires up, the eu will be politically split and ukraine is economically hosed
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Feb 21, 2022 04:58
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Majorian posted:https://twitter.com/carolinerkenny/status/1495558039646187521 I think I posted at least a week ago that everyone should remember that the Western media, even if not following an agenda, will signal boost every extreme and shocking point. This "Putin will invade in mere seconds" that has been going on since at least two weeks is incredibly annoying, likely because it isn't even a CIA op but merely Joe Newswriter repeating some twitter post that was written for clicks. If you believe the news, for instance every major newssite, then Russian tanks are mere inches from the border, everyone is lobbing artillery at each other, and Putin has literally given the order to attack... and also Putin and Biden will meet and tanks are pulling back. All at the same time. The narrative is only this: click on this headline please. Twitter is even worse obviously.
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Feb 21, 2022 05:00
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Another truly bizarre "intelligence leak" that the media is reporting uncritically: https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1495590179691769860 The letter was written by Bathsheba Crocker, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. From the WaPo piece: (emphasis mine) quote:The letter alleges that Moscow’s post-invasion planning would involve torture, forced disappearances and “widespread human suffering.” It does not describe the nature of the intelligence that undergirds its assessment. quote:Crocker says the Russian military’s targets would include Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and “vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.”
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Feb 21, 2022 05:01
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Haramstufe Rot posted:If you believe the news, for instance every major newssite, then Russian tanks are mere inches from the border, everyone is lobbing artillery at each other, and Putin has literally given the order to attack... and also Putin and Biden will meet and tanks are pulling back. All at the same time. No, essentially every Western media outlet has quite consistently reported that troop buildup has continued and that separatist forces are shelling Ukraine. Because, you know, we have videos of both of these things.
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Feb 21, 2022 05:02
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eke out posted:No, essentially every Western media outlet has quite consistently reported that troop buildup has continued and that separatist forces are shelling Ukraine. The mainstream media is also regularly and uncritically reporting intelligence leaks that claim that an invasion is mere days away, along with truly ridiculous claims that Russia will try to conquer and occupy all of Ukraine. There are several examples of this throughout the thread, particularly in the last couple pages.
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Feb 21, 2022 05:05
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eke out posted:No, essentially every Western media outlet has quite consistently reported that troop buildup has continued and that separatist forces are shelling Ukraine. tbf they're like broken clocks They signal boost everything and some of those things happen to be right.
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Feb 21, 2022 05:06
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Only if they don't attack Ukraine in the meantime, which is no small possibility. Russia has had the ability to attack for quite some time. We have been repeatedly told an attack is imminent. So why haven't they yet? It doesn't actually make sense to continue to delay unless you are genuinely seeking a deal. Every ten seconds it's field hospital this or attack formations that, perpetually. At some point it is simply more credible to see that Russia thinks its deployment gives it enough leverage to get what they want, whatever that is.
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Feb 21, 2022 05:07
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Numlock posted:So it looks like Russian troops in Belarus aren't leaving. lol at anyone who was naive enough to think they were just all going to go back home
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Feb 21, 2022 05:17
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Concerned Citizen posted:Russia has had the ability to attack for quite some time. We have been repeatedly told an attack is imminent. So why haven't they yet? It doesn't actually make sense to continue to delay unless you are genuinely seeking a deal. Every ten seconds it's field hospital this or attack formations that, perpetually. At some point it is simply more credible to see that Russia thinks its deployment gives it enough leverage to get what they want, whatever that is. Preparation comes in stages and since they have full control of the timetable they've gone through the full checklist, simultaneously broadening the potential scope of the conflict. We're now at the last step before flagged RusMil starts shooting Ukrainians, which is intensifying the conflict in Donbas as a political justification to intervene. And technically the actual invasion already started that with the Russian vehicles spotted rolling into Donbas, which as per Minsk is Ukrainian territory.
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Feb 21, 2022 05:17
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Concerned Citizen posted:Russia has had the ability to attack for quite some time. And they have been through their proxies in Donetsk and Luhansk for the last eight years. The difference is now Russia looks to be assembling forces for a full-dress war. Such things take quite a while. Concerned Citizen posted:We have been repeatedly told an attack is imminent. "Imminent" is a subjective concept. A hypothetical Russian attack next week or next month would qualify as imminent under certain definitions. To give a more concrete example, the US spent months in 2002 building up to invade Iraq, so that invasion was arguably imminent for several months before it happened. Concerned Citizen posted:So why haven't they yet? This isn't a video game level with the time running down to zero.
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Feb 21, 2022 05:17
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i'm still hopeful that this will all end up as a bunch of sound and fury, but if hostilities do break out, surely if a major city was on the verge of becoming a battleground, it would be declared an open city, and the ukrainian's wouldn't dig in? they know that it wouldn't make a difference to the final outcome beyond civilian casualties and mass destruction of basic infrastructure
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Feb 21, 2022 05:22
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The only reason things haven't already gone "hot" is the discipline of the Ukrainian military to just eat hundreds of unanswered artillery rounds these past two nights, and a cartoonish level of incompetence in display on the false flags. Like, just blow up your own car dude. Use the right GoPro footage dude. Sneak a couple GRAD Tubes into Ukrainian territory and fire them into Russia from there. Some people seem to be under the mistaken assumption that we're still in the "I'm not touching you!" phase, when we've crossed into the shoving "what are you gonna do about it?" phase.
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Feb 21, 2022 05:23
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:And they have been through their proxies in Donetsk and Luhansk for the last eight years. The difference is now Russia looks to be assembling forces for a full-dress war. Such things take quite a while. Sure, it looks that way. That's my point. Everything happening is entirely consistent with them simply choosing to place their troops in such a threatening deployment that it brings the west to the table. Which it has. No invasion needs to actually occur for Russia to achieve its objective, whatever it may be. As I said, maybe I'm being optimistic, but that simply makes far more sense to me at this point. If they can get what they want without having to commit to an invasion and everything that goes along with that, why wouldn't they? quote:"Imminent" is a subjective concept. A hypothetical Russian attack next week or next month would qualify as imminent under certain definitions. Not really. When US intelligence states that Russia could attack during the winter Olympics, it implies that they believe the Russian build-up is advanced enough to conduct an invasion. And if they were intending to invade, it is weird that they would give away that they're playing a game by "extending" the exercises as you would presumably believe the invasion would have occurred under the original deadline. At some point, we have to acknowledge that there is a very distinct possibility that our intelligence is simply wrong - either about Russia's capabilities or about its intentions. Which wouldn't be that surprising because it has been wrong quite often.
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Feb 21, 2022 05:26
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Concerned Citizen posted:Russia has had the ability to attack for quite some time. We have been repeatedly told an attack is imminent. So why haven't they yet? It doesn't actually make sense to continue to delay unless you are genuinely seeking a deal. Every ten seconds it's field hospital this or attack formations that, perpetually. At some point it is simply more credible to see that Russia thinks its deployment gives it enough leverage to get what they want, whatever that is. The point at which that becomes more credible than an invasion is when Russia starts significantly pulling back its forward deployed forces. Right now there are no signs of such activity, and the signs all point to them continuing to prepare for an invasion.
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