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some plague rats posted:In Chechneya? is that in russia?
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Feb 21, 2022 09:02
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Despera posted:is that in russia? Sorry I'm just not clear what a documentary about gay people being attacked by homophobic vigilantes in Chechneya has to do with your claim that Russia has been herding minorities into camps in Crimea. It might be suggestive they want to, sure, but you claimed there was readily available evidence they've been doing it for 8 years?
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Feb 21, 2022 09:05
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some plague rats posted:Sorry I'm just not clear what a documentary about gay people being attacked by homophobic vigilantes in Chechneya has to do with your claim that Russia has been herding minorities into camps in Crimea. It might be suggestive they want to, sure, but you claimed there was readily available evidence they've been doing it for 8 years? nobody said loving camps but you. also they do go to moscow and to the russian supreme court
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Feb 21, 2022 09:06
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But I'm sure the guy who killed dissidents with polonium and kills gays on the street will be super nice to the ukrainians there. god imagine defending that regime
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Feb 21, 2022 09:09
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dunno about camps, but crimean tatars have been systematically hosed since the (edit: previous?) invasion even more than they already were under Ukraine (and they were pretty hosed then! and in the soviet era too) sample: https://www.coe.int/en/web/commissioner/-/the-persecution-of-crimean-tatars-must-stop afaik the Council of Europe is a reasonably reliable human rights org, much else i've heard has been secondhand from EE-focused academic nerds but I might be able to find a few more tidbits if y'all find it implausible that Russian Crimea's sticking it to the decidedly non-Slavic Muslim minority Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 09:15 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 09:12
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Despera posted:nobody said loving camps but you. also they do go to moscow and to the russian supreme court What? Majorian posted:Do you think Russia plans to occupy Ukraine and do what that letter claims they're going to do? If so, why? Despera posted:Because they have already done it in the parts they invaded in 2014 Did you actually read the letter you're defending?
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Feb 21, 2022 09:13
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ukrainians complaining about attempted russification back in the day have a point but they got nothin' on the tatars, who got told among other things "you get russian language schools that are often residential schools or you get to be illiterate, choice is yours"
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Feb 21, 2022 09:13
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GABA ghoul posted:No, the EU gas directive applies to NS2. This is a change away from Merkel's policy (who planned to fight it in court) and explicitly stated in the coalition agreement Good info, thanks HonorableTB posted:What does this have to do with the topic this thread is about? Nobody's talking about Biden or ICE and they aren't relevant to this discussion
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Feb 21, 2022 09:15
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some plague rats posted:What? Maybe you could ask them where the camps are https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1495382017881649155
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Feb 21, 2022 09:16
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e: you know what, never mind. I'm done. You're just flailing aimlessly and this is pointless (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 21, 2022 09:17
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Somaen posted:Is there a mechanism to bring up that people are bad faith debaters if they are arguing for one thing in one thread and completely turn around in another one, based not on values on principles but the politics team they support? This is a general idea not relevant to this thread and probably the ignore list is the best option Submit a report and/or PM a mod. Koos responds almost universally to PMs and most of us will respond to substantive messages.
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Feb 21, 2022 09:18
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some plague rats posted:e: you know what, I'm done. You're just flailing aimlessly and this is pointless defend that disgusting regime also it wasnt vigiliantes killing gays, it was cops run by a guy who said "there are no gays in chechyna" (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 21, 2022 09:18
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Discendo Vox posted:Majorian has added the word "concentration" to the claim, which is why it's now being leaned on, and the linked washington post article also links information on the same activities from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. The reason I added the word "concentration" to the claim is because that is clearly what the letter in question means to imply by saying "sent to camps following a military occupation." All of this is based on nebulous intelligence, the veracity of which cannot be verified by the article's own admission. No one is denying that the Russian state, in all its forms, has committed terrible atrocities over the past hundred years of their existence, least of all me. One side of my family suffered terribly under Stalin (and some of those who survived went on to suffer terribly under the Nazi occupation). It still continues to commit atrocities. But claiming that the current Russian government intends to occupy Ukraine and is already compiling a list of people to send to "camps" is an incredibly inflammatory claim, and it's one that demands proof if it is to be taken seriously. The U.S. Ambassador to the UN is apparently unable to back up those claims, and there is very little evidence that the Russian government plans to occupy all or most of the country in the first place. The Washington Post has acted indefensibly by publishing this piece without doing their due diligence.
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Feb 21, 2022 09:21
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The letter says that "Russia has a list of identified Ukrainians" to be "sent to camps". It doesn't allege there would be a wholesale imprisonment of entire populations, it talks about rounding up specific persons, and it builds up on previous work by UN documenting forced internment of dissidents and civil leaders in occupied territories in various facilities. Whether those facilities should or shouldn't bbe called "camps" seems secondary to the fact that Russia has been systematically vanishing, imprisoning, murdering or forcing into exile anybody who embodies the "undesirables" in its newly conquered provinces - be it liberals, civil rights activists, pro-Ukrainian leaders, LGBT activists, or ethnic minorities (Tartars, Georgians in Ossetia). What the letter describes is happening, and if your concern is about the chosen nomenclature, well... steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 09:26 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 09:22
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steinrokkan posted:The letter says that "Russia has a list of identified Ukrainians" to be "sent to camps". It doesn't allege there would be a wholesale imprisonment of entire populations, and it builds up on previous work by UN documenting forced internment of dissidents and civil leaders in occupied territories in various facilities. Whether those facilities should or shouldn't bbe called "camps" seems secondary to the fact that Russia has been systematically vanishing and murdering anybody who embodies the "undesirables" - be it liberals, civil rights activists, pro-Ukrainian leaders, LGBT activists, or ethnic minorities (Tartars, Georgians in Ossetia). The letter is not speculating like you are, though. It is not saying "there COULD be such a list of people in Ukraine that the Russians are planning to send to camps, based on what we know about some of their past actions." It is saying, "there is such a letter. We know this, because we have intelligence that says so - and no, you may not see this intelligence."
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Feb 21, 2022 09:26
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Majorian posted:The letter is not speculating like you are, though. It is not saying "there COULD be such a list of people in Ukraine that the Russians are planning to send to camps, based on what we know about some of their past actions." It is saying, "there is such a letter. We know this, because we have intelligence that says so - and no, you may not see this intelligence." Yes, I know, and I believe it to be true. I didn't mean to imply the letter was a speculation. It's pretty clear that based on Russian intelligence activities and the number of Russians abroad suffering from accute defenestration syndrome, Russia is keeping pretty close tabs on its enemies and their movements, and would without a doubt disseminate lists of enemies to round up in case of an invasion. I don't need to see the intelligence saying "Russia is trying to systematically exterminate its dissidents" when I can see Russia trying to exterminate its dissidents with my own two eyes.
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Feb 21, 2022 09:29
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So are you acknowledging that you inserted the word "concentration" to misrepresent the source material, now? Because I noticed you've dropped that claim and moved on to a new one without acknowledging it.
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Feb 21, 2022 09:30
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Discendo Vox posted:So are you acknowledging that you inserted the word "concentration" to misrepresent the source material, now? Because I noticed you've dropped that claim and moved on to a new one without acknowledging it. I acknowledge that I inserted the word "concentration" because that is what the letter clearly is meant to imply. steinrokkan posted:Yes, I know, and I believe it to be true. I didn't mean to imply the letter was a speculation. It's pretty clear that based on Russian intelligence activities and the number of Russians abroad suffering from accute defenestration syndrome, Russia is keeping pretty close tabs on its enemies and their movements, and would without a doubt disseminate lists of enemies to round up in case of an invasion. But that is still not what the letter is claiming. The letter strongly suggests that Russia intends to occupy a significant portion of Ukraine (because it seems incredibly unlikely that Russian and Belarussian dissidents in exile are finding refuge in the Russian-sponsored breakaway regions), and outright claims that there is a very real, very literal list of LGBTQ+ people and dissidents to either kill or ship off to camps. The suggestion that Russia intends to invade and occupy more than just the Donbas is already a significant stretch that needs substantiation, and yet there is none to be found anywhere. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Majorian fucked around with this message at 09:39 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 09:33
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Majorian posted:The letter is not speculating like you are, though. It is not saying "there COULD be such a list of people in Ukraine that the Russians are planning to send to camps, based on what we know about some of their past actions." It is saying, "there is such a letter. We know this, because we have intelligence that says so - and no, you may not see this intelligence." The single line from the US Ambassador to the UN's letter referring to this is, in full: "Specifically, we have credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation." https://www.washingtonpost.com/cont...inline_manual_4 Your assertion about US Intelligence refusing to share said 'credible information' seems a bit speculative, given this claim coming from the ambassador is hours old, and saying Majorian posted:The Washington Post has acted indefensibly by publishing this piece without doing their due diligence. is a bit much, given that the Washington Post framed the story as "US Claims...", cited their sources including the letter itself, gave contextualizing information, and reached out to the Russian embassy for commentary. What additional due diligence would you have them do before reporting the news worthy story of the existence of this letter submitted to the UN?
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Feb 21, 2022 09:39
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Russia has in the last couple of years significantly escalated violence against domestic dissidents (most notably the very public assassination attemp on Navalny). If they are planning a full occupation and political reorientation of the country then it would be entirely in character to preemptively sweep up and detain anyone they think will give them trouble. Install a client government and make it very clear to the political class that there are huge personal costs to voicing opposition. So, being consistent with past practice, the 'go big' scenario, and along with the fact that all the other intelligence leaks have turned out to be accurate... I wouldn't dismiss this.
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Feb 21, 2022 09:40
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Majorian posted:I acknowledge that I inserted the word "concentration" because that is what the letter clearly is meant to imply. quote:But that is still not what the letter is claiming. The letter is claiming that Russia intends to occupy a significant portion of Ukraine, and has a very real, very literal list of LGBTQ+ people and dissidents to either kill or ship off to camps. The claim that Russia intends to invade and occupy more than just the Donbas is already a significant stretch that needs substantiation. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 09:45 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 09:42
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LegendaryFrog posted:is a bit much, given that the Washington Post framed the story as "US Claims...", cited their sources including the letter itself, gave contextualizing information, and reached out to the Russian embassy for commentary. Do not report anything that hurts the feelings of
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Feb 21, 2022 09:44
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1495654220288204800?t=zMyU0v3zmQrj7Jwtxq4vaw&s=19 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1495660986455494657?t=gnVdCbLnVSb9MaNBXUUHCQ&s=19 Unconfirmed, but yeah, keeping almost 200k troops in the field and combat ready for weeks ain't easy for a state like Russia
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Feb 21, 2022 10:03
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GABA ghoul posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1495654220288204800?t=zMyU0v3zmQrj7Jwtxq4vaw&s=19 In 2060 every village from Rostov to Voronezh will have a soldier holdout of the Great Military Exercises of 2022 refusing to demobilize without express orders by his long dead superior officer from back then.
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Feb 21, 2022 10:10
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In 2060 every village from Rostov to Voronezh will have finally fixed their tread-chewed roads
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Feb 21, 2022 10:34
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Kavros posted:In 2060 every village from Rostov to Voronezh will have finally fixed their tread-chewed roads This is an underrated point about the cost of all of this - quite a bit of Russian infrastructure has been damaged already. The material price is ultimately insignificant, but I doubt they’re making even the local Russians any happier. GABA ghoul posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1495654220288204800?t=zMyU0v3zmQrj7Jwtxq4vaw&s=19 This does anecdotally check out with experiences of my Russian acquaintances who did complete their service in the recent couple of years.
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Feb 21, 2022 10:48
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75% of Russia's conventional forces deployed against Ukraine https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-20-22-intl/h_a75912013e1a5572ef733fd4a7167d48
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Feb 21, 2022 10:49
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I'm already picturing a Minard map except it's flipped horizontally and has the added variables of Covid cases and half liters consumed.
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Feb 21, 2022 10:50
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https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1495683101321838593 This is interesting, particuarly coming off the back of the Macron-Putin call yesterday and the proposal for a Putin-Biden conference. This might be the last gasp 'is it worth talking more or do we just go?' discussion.
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Feb 21, 2022 11:00
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i say swears online posted:i've literally never sent one of these so-called e-mails before but i assume you can just hover over the attachment and see if it's a jpeg or exe or zip file Going back to this but a common vector.is that you can or could have pdfs or image files that have things embedded that cause a virus or cryptlocker to be released. It's what was used for a good while. And depending on the actual (probably minimal) security in embassy computers it's not gonna get caught till it activates. It's one reason that you get taught to never open any attachments not from someone you know or expect, because hackers have been able to insert viruses in alot of things you never expect.
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Feb 21, 2022 11:01
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HonorableTB posted:75% of Russia's conventional forces deployed against Ukraine There is 1 million active personnel in Russian army so that assessment sounds like nonsense
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Feb 21, 2022 11:09
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fatherboxx posted:There is 1 million active personnel in Russian army so that assessment sounds like nonsense The nuance is explicitly mentioned, if you read the text.
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Feb 21, 2022 11:12
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I think it's supposed to mean about 75 % of the battalion tactical groups they can put on the field without significant reserve mobilizations
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Feb 21, 2022 11:13
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1495701277250142212?t=ZYp6InQTatonqj5LbTFdFg&s=19 They are ramping up the claims, now Ukraine is supposedly attacking Russia directly. Kremlim announced that Putin will convene Russian security council meeting today
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Feb 21, 2022 11:21
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fatherboxx posted:There is 1 million active personnel in Russian army so that assessment sounds like nonsense I think this is a reasonable misunderstanding that most people who aren't military watchers would make. 1 million personnel is everyone the Russian army employs, not the count of guys with rifles and bayonets. Like every army the Russian army has a mix of frontline units and support units and garrison units and logistics units and training units. Quite a lot of that is just dedicated to keeping the army existing as a coherent organisation in peacetime. The 'fighty' bit of the army is relatively small and that's what's been concentrated around Ukraine. So basically this: brakeless posted:I think it's supposed to mean about 75 % of the battalion tactical groups they can put on the field without significant reserve mobilizations It's not about counting people, it's about counting tactical formations. And Russia has basically grabbed everything for this. e: so uh, was nobody manning the border checkpoint that was completely destroyed and yet somehow produced no injuries?
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Feb 21, 2022 11:24
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GABA ghoul posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1495701277250142212?t=ZYp6InQTatonqj5LbTFdFg&s=19 Credit where it’s due to Ukrainian munitions, all these explosions and not a single casualty. Including when they “utterly obliterated a border guard site”. Edit: Here’s the supposed site https://twitter.com/ntvru/status/1495701196652302341 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 11:35 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 11:31
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Alchenar posted:e: so uh, was nobody manning the border checkpoint that was completely destroyed and yet somehow produced no injuries? Not all border crossings between Russia and Ukraine are in use so it could indeed have been unmanned. Which of course is convenient. e: Oh, doesn't look like a border crossing like I interpreted it, just a border guards' watch cabin in the woods? It might well have been empty, border surveillance tends to be increasingly electronic anyway. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 11:46 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 11:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Credit where it’s due to Ukrainian munitions, all these explosions and not a single casualty. Including when they “utterly obliterated a border guard site”. Not an expert, but that looks like a direct hit to me. What are the chances of a stray round accidentally hitting this glorified shed in the middle of a field miles behind the actual target? Surely, this must be a deliberate attack by the Ukrainians on Russia. Their plan probably looks like this: bomb the huge rear end army at your doorstep that can easily crush you -> ??? -> victory
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Feb 21, 2022 11:42
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sorta related, IIRC according to outside estimates, out of the 170 or so BTGs that are deployable on a relatively short notice, roughly one third are staffed entirely with contract soldiers, another third is a mix of contract core personnel and conscripts, and the last third leans heavily on fresh reservists so a big chunk of the guys hanging out on the ukr borber rn are probably getting paid to be there, whereas chechnya and I think georgia were mostly conscript/reservist affairs
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Feb 21, 2022 11:43
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Nenonen posted:Not all border crossings between Russia and Ukraine are in use so it could indeed have been unmanned. Which of course is convenient. The term for a border crossing is пункт пропуска через государственную границу, this is just a nondescript borderline facility.
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Feb 21, 2022 11:54
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