COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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Pingui: Jun 4, 2006; WTF?

Rust Martialis posted:

Is DK estimating r0 anywhere, Pingui?

1/4 million cases a week, and assuming almost nobody getting Omicron gets it again, the pool of susceptibles dwindles weekly from the roughly 3.3 million at present, at which we have 250,000 infected. Next week, 3.05 million so we should see a drop in new cases, almost 8%. So then next week you could see 8% fewer new cases, 230,000. Dropping the pool to 2.75 million, which drops the cases bit more.

At some point the dilution of susceptibles in the population will lower r0 enough that it drops below 1.0, right? I mean you could enforce things... but nobody has the will.

So where are we on r0?

It is, you can find it in Tendensrapporten updated on Thursdays at 14:00 here: https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/ugentlige-tendenser-for-covid-19-og-andre-luftvejsinfektioner

Latest report says it is 0.9 (pg. 7):https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/tendensrapport/rapport/ugentlige-tendenser-covid19-andre-luftvejs-uge7-2022-5l9s

It should be noted that due to the changes in testing, the most recent number is probably incorrect (according to Danish Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke when he tweeted it) and I should add, likely higher. See also wastewater data (pg. 32) being a straight line on a logarithmic scale since week 39...

Edit for the second part of your post: You would think so, but it isn't something we are seeing in wastewater. That straight line on wastewater is pretty disconcerting and the recent increase in hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths are uhh... If it doesn't start dropping or - gently caress - tapering off, we are in big trouble.

Pingui fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Feb 20, 2022

# ? Feb 20, 2022 21:00

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# ? May 29, 2024 18:12

Steen71: Apr 10, 2017; Fun Shoe

Pingui posted:

2018 was a particularly gnarly flu season, so using that as a baseline, instead of the actual baseline is not a reasonable way to compare well... anything. Compared to worst case, things are less bad by definition.

Right, but I'm guessing that there was no thread here at SA with people calling for restrictions in 2018 - in Denmark or other places. Do you think we should have had restrictions? And if you do, that raises the question of WHEN we do it. Ideally the restrictions would have to be in place before the yearly flu hits because we won't know in advance how bad it's gonna be.

Pingui posted:

You can call the removal of restrictions reasonable if you don't mind a future where the deaths are a fixture of life I guess; in a few short years the normalization will be complete in the numbers

Well, I find it hard to imagine a future where death isn't a fixture of life. It's only a question of how many excess deaths we find acceptable. I think the current numbers are.

# ? Feb 20, 2022 21:42

Pingui: Jun 4, 2006; WTF?

Steen71 posted:

(..)It's only a question of how many excess deaths we find acceptable. I think the current numbers are.

Ok, not much to discuss currently then, as I obviously don't find the current numbers nor their trajectory acceptable. I guess we will find out if you also find the higher excess deaths without restrictions acceptable. We can revert to the discussion in the future, when the die has been cast and the numbers are in.

Would you divulge - in advance - the excess death number you would be uncomfortable with?

# ? Feb 20, 2022 22:42

StratGoatCom: Aug 6, 2019; Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice

https://twitter.com/CellReports/status/1491135252525314048

This would suggest that mustelid rewilding as a COVID reservoir mitigation measure may be a measure worth trying.

# ? Feb 20, 2022 23:28

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Pingui posted:

Edit for the second part of your post: You would think so, but it isn't something we are seeing in wastewater. That straight line on wastewater is pretty disconcerting and the recent increase in hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths are uhh... If it doesn't start dropping or - gently caress - tapering off, we are in big trouble.

For comparison, here is what log-scale wastewater looked like for Boston metro:
https://twitter.com/ofsevit/status/1493705338910121988?cxt=HHwWiIC9ze_F2ropAAAA
(5 days old, but the official one isn't log-scale, and don't have other unofficial ones handy).

# ? Feb 20, 2022 23:37

Pingui: Jun 4, 2006; WTF?

OddObserver posted:

For comparison, here is what log-scale wastewater looked like for Boston metro:
(..)
(5 days old, but the official one isn't log-scale, and don't have other unofficial ones handy).

And the Danish (country aggregated) wastewater log-scale for easier comparison:

Right side says "RNA-copies per inhabitant", left says "New cases".

Pingui fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Feb 21, 2022

# ? Feb 20, 2022 23:48

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

Mellow Seas posted:

Now, I think it's also pretty obvious that this is, in fact, a gigantic weakness in western culture! But there's not anything our current leaders could've done - this die was basically cast before they were even born. This ideology has obviously been costing us in a lot of ways, even before Covid. It ensures the continuance of poverty and untreated disease and ignorance. It's going to take a long time to undo the damage and how to figure out how to reconcile the good parts of our culture, the parts that have led to an astonishing flourish of culture and technological innovation, with the bad parts. (It may never happen.)

I want to disagree here slightly. Taking Trump out of the equation because, he had his own dumbass machinations on how to hurt people in the virus, I think any semblance of leadership on any level would of gone a long way to keeping things under control in fall of 2020. Now, this is only based on what I can remember about living in Massachusetts in 2020 but what always stood out to me was:

1) Charlie Baker had to be dragged by the local school boards to take this thing serious. Schools basically told the governor to gently caress himself and started closing to the point where the Governor had to say, I am closing all schools and creating a plan.
2) In that first week of everything closing down Baker and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh basically said we're keeping everyone at work while we figure this out. Where to me real leadership would of been saying I am giving everyone two weeks of vacation except for essential staff and everyone is staying at home for two weeks while we develop a plan.
3) During the summer of 2020 Baker took the the first piece of good news to immediately start repealing stay at home mandates. He didn't say, hey in two weeks let's start here and we'll start to repeal slowly.

Now look, I get it, there are trade offs if you shut down a government, state, country. Real economic impact that has to be dealt with over a long term basis. But any leadership instead of, guys everything is fine don't worry basically led us to a haphazard response. No one wanted to talk responsibility or try and think outside the box. I am not saying we needed China stye lockdowns but we probably needed a real leader to say, here is what we need to do, here is what numbers we need to hit, and we can't open up until we are here.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 00:03

Smeef: Aug 15, 2003; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!; Pillbug

Mooseontheloose posted:

I want to disagree here slightly. Taking Trump out of the equation because, he had his own dumbass machinations on how to hurt people in the virus, I think any semblance of leadership on any level would of gone a long way to keeping things under control in fall of 2020. Now, this is only based on what I can remember about living in Massachusetts in 2020 but what always stood out to me was:

1) Charlie Baker had to be dragged by the local school boards to take this thing serious. Schools basically told the governor to gently caress himself and started closing to the point where the Governor had to say, I am closing all schools and creating a plan.
2) In that first week of everything closing down Baker and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh basically said we're keeping everyone at work while we figure this out. Where to me real leadership would of been saying I am giving everyone two weeks of vacation except for essential staff and everyone is staying at home for two weeks while we develop a plan.
3) During the summer of 2020 Baker took the the first piece of good news to immediately start repealing stay at home mandates. He didn't say, hey in two weeks let's start here and we'll start to repeal slowly.

Now look, I get it, there are trade offs if you shut down a government, state, country. Real economic impact that has to be dealt with over a long term basis. But any leadership instead of, guys everything is fine don't worry basically led us to a haphazard response. No one wanted to talk responsibility or try and think outside the box. I am not saying we needed China stye lockdowns but we probably needed a real leader to say, here is what we need to do, here is what numbers we need to hit, and we can't open up until we are here.

(Not responding directly to Mooseontheloose but continuing this thread on US/"Western" Covid failure)

I've posted something along these lines before, but I still think Trump personally played a unique role in Covid outcomes, not just in the US but globally. And I normally am not prone to assigning that much blame on Trump as opposed to systems. It's all very fantasy alternative history, I know, but I at least can easily imagine it having gone differently.

Trump early on could have used this as a 9/11-type moment, pushed through PATRIOT Act-like legislation to enact a lot of the policies that now seem impossible; empowered himself, the executive, and the Republicans to a ridiculous degree; set the direction for much of the rest of the world; and cruised to reelection. Obviously that would have come with a lot of downsides, too. No one else could have done it. No other Republicans, and certainly no Democrats, could have gotten the right-wing lunatics on board.

The response probably still wouldn't have been perfect because I also do think a lot of the USG institutions are sclerotic from decades of Republican sabotage and that a lot of other variables play against the US. But it would have been a far cry from how it has played out.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 02:17

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

Trump could have not removed funding and staff from multiple CDC/USAID initiatives in China specifically aimed at identifying and stopping early coronavirus outbreaks, or preventing them altogether. It's an unpleasant counterfactual, but the entire pandemic might not have happened but for Trump's election and resulting policies.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 02:36 on Feb 21, 2022

# ? Feb 21, 2022 02:30

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Pingui posted:

Ok, not much to discuss currently then, as I obviously don't find the current numbers nor their trajectory acceptable. I guess we will find out if you also find the higher excess deaths without restrictions acceptable. We can revert to the discussion in the future, when the die has been cast and the numbers are in.

Would you divulge - in advance - the excess death number you would be uncomfortable with?

I don't think you can answer that without knowing both how many people will die and how many people would die in the counterfactual where restrictions weren't lifted, which are obviously impossible to know at once. The number of deaths isn't really relevant to whether or not there should be restrictions, what matters is whether the benefits of the intervention exceed the costs.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 02:55

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Mooseontheloose posted:

1) Charlie Baker had to be dragged by the local school boards to take this thing serious. Schools basically told the governor to gently caress himself and started closing to the point where the Governor had to say, I am closing all schools and creating a plan.

To me, a good illustration of Charlie Baker's level of "leadership" was that he announced general access to boosters in MA on the Thursday one day before CDC did so countrywide and when there were already leaks in the press showing they were going to do it on Friday.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 03:12

Steen71: Apr 10, 2017; Fun Shoe

Pingui posted:

Would you divulge - in advance - the excess death number you would be uncomfortable with?

As I think we can expect bad flus from time to time, I guess something like the 2018 numbers would be reasonable (and that flu made me briefly believe I was gonna die). Other factors have to be in play too, like the number of people in ICUs. If that number suddenly increased in the coming weeks, I would absolutely be in favour of bringing back restrictions.

Now I answered your question, I think it's fair you answer mine.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 08:52

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Smeef posted:

(Not responding directly to Mooseontheloose but continuing this thread on US/"Western" Covid failure)

I've posted something along these lines before, but I still think Trump personally played a unique role in Covid outcomes, not just in the US but globally. And I normally am not prone to assigning that much blame on Trump as opposed to systems. It's all very fantasy alternative history, I know, but I at least can easily imagine it having gone differently.

Trump early on could have used this as a 9/11-type moment, pushed through PATRIOT Act-like legislation to enact a lot of the policies that now seem impossible; empowered himself, the executive, and the Republicans to a ridiculous degree; set the direction for much of the rest of the world; and cruised to reelection. Obviously that would have come with a lot of downsides, too. No one else could have done it. No other Republicans, and certainly no Democrats, could have gotten the right-wing lunatics on board.

The response probably still wouldn't have been perfect because I also do think a lot of the USG institutions are sclerotic from decades of Republican sabotage and that a lot of other variables play against the US. But it would have been a far cry from how it has played out.

I think the fact most European countries also had really bad outcomes suggests this wouldn't have been the case. In fact I'd argue believing that whichever person was POTUS would have had not just a domestic but a significant global influence on the pandemic is a telling Americanism in itself.

Discendo Vox posted:

Trump could have not removed funding and staff from multiple CDC/USAID initiatives in China specifically aimed at identifying and stopping early coronavirus outbreaks, or preventing them altogether. It's an unpleasant counterfactual, but the entire pandemic might not have happened but for Trump's election and resulting policies.

This is really reaching

# ? Feb 21, 2022 10:14

Smeef: Aug 15, 2003; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!; Pillbug

freebooter posted:

I think the fact most European countries also had really bad outcomes suggests this wouldn't have been the case. In fact I'd argue believing that whichever person was POTUS would have had not just a domestic but a significant global influence on the pandemic is a telling Americanism in itself.

Yeah, I don't mean to overstate how much better it might have been or suggest that most of the world just follows the American lead � and again this is a purely alternative history exercise so I'm not betting my life on these arguments. But the US does routinely get a lot of places to follow them, for better or for worse. And some of the most pernicious pandemic problems globally � hyper-politicization, anti-vaxxer conspiracy theories � seem to have been turbocharged in American society in a way that they caught on more elsewhere than they may have otherwise. Maybe that dry powder for insanity was already spread widely, though.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 10:46

Pingui: Jun 4, 2006; WTF?

Steen71 posted:

As I think we can expect bad flus from time to time, I guess something like the 2018 numbers would be reasonable (and that flu made me briefly believe I was gonna die). Other factors have to be in play too, like the number of people in ICUs. If that number suddenly increased in the coming weeks, I would absolutely be in favour of bringing back restrictions.

Now I answered your question, I think it's fair you answer mine.

Both COVID ICU admissions and deaths have been up.

To briefly entertain you drawing parallels to influenza, I don't think we should be accepting the annual deaths from the ongoing influenza pandemic as the state of the world, no. Considering the lackluster masking, handwashing and spotty lockdowns might have managed to wipe out a lineage of influenza (B/Yamagata), I don't think anyone should.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 11:26

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Smeef posted:

Yeah, I don't mean to overstate how much better it might have been or suggest that most of the world just follows the American lead � and again this is a purely alternative history exercise so I'm not betting my life on these arguments. But the US does routinely get a lot of places to follow them, for better or for worse. And some of the most pernicious pandemic problems globally � hyper-politicization, anti-vaxxer conspiracy theories � seem to have been turbocharged in American society in a way that they caught on more elsewhere than they may have otherwise. Maybe that dry powder for insanity was already spread widely, though.

I mean, I don't think it's "overstating" - I don't think there's any indication the world followed the American "lead" at all. To the extent that some European countries had as bad (or by some metrics, like the UK, worse) outcomes than the US, I think that's because the notion that a new disease is something you just have to soldier through was quite appealing to those political leaders and cultures for precisely the same reasons as the US.

If Obama had been in a hypothetical third term and somehow managed to go hard on pandemic controls, I don't think it really would've made all that much difference to the American death toll (which was largely driven by insurmountable structural factors) and I don't think it would've have made a lick of difference to policy discussions in cabinet meetings in Britain or Austria or Japan or Argentina or Equatorial Guinea.

You may have more of a point about hyper-politicisation and conspiracy theories, though in that case I'd argue Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey are more influential than whoever happens to be the president.

Pingui posted:

To briefly entertain you drawing parallels to influenza, I don't think we should be accepting the annual deaths from the ongoing influenza pandemic as the state of the world, no. Considering the lackluster masking, handwashing and spotty lockdowns might have managed to wipe out a lineage of influenza (B/Yamagata), I don't think anyone should.

We are never wiping out all strains of influenza because they have too many animal reservoirs, and nobody's going to accept another two years of rolling lockdowns in a futile attempt to do so.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 12:30

Pingui: Jun 4, 2006; WTF?

freebooter posted:

(..)
We are never wiping out all strains of influenza because they have too many animal reservoirs, and nobody's going to accept another two years of rolling lockdowns in a futile attempt to do so.

We don't need to wipe out all strains of influenza to decrease the death toll, nor does it appear we need to do any kind of lockdown. In aggregate we have barely done anything and reduced influenza to almost nothing.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 13:46

cant cook creole bream: Aug 15, 2011; I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Pingui posted:

We don't need to wipe out all strains of influenza to decrease the death toll, nor does it appear we need to do any kind of lockdown. In aggregate we have barely done anything and reduced influenza to almost nothing.

The global measures within the previous two years have been a lot more than "barely anything".

In a theoretical world where Covid was stopped before it left Wuhan, it would have absolutely not have been worth the effort to do all these measures just to make influence spread less.

cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Feb 21, 2022

# ? Feb 21, 2022 15:26

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

freebooter posted:

This is really reaching

What about it? Again the point of the cut programs and initiatives was to monitor for and stop the emergence of just such a disease in the exact place it wound up emerging.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 16:27

Steen71: Apr 10, 2017; Fun Shoe

Pingui posted:

Both COVID ICU admissions and deaths have been up.

ICU numbers are up slightly compared to last week, yes. They're still half of what they were just over a month ago, and less than a third of what they were last year. As far as I understand it the hospitals can easily handle the current load.

Pingui posted:

To briefly entertain you drawing parallels to influenza, I don't think we should be accepting the annual deaths from the ongoing influenza pandemic as the state of the world, no.

I asked about 2018. Do you think we should have shut down back then? And, if so, when and how much?

# ? Feb 21, 2022 18:50

Inferior Third Season: Jan 15, 2005

Steen71 posted:

ICU numbers are up slightly compared to last week, yes. They're still half of what they were just over a month ago, and less than a third of what they were last year. As far as I understand it the hospitals can easily handle the current load.

Deaths are way up. If ICU bed availability is the only success criterion, then just put a bullet in the head of any seriously sick patient.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 19:11

Pingui: Jun 4, 2006; WTF?

Steen71 posted:

ICU numbers are up slightly compared to last week, yes. They're still half of what they were just over a month ago, and less than a third of what they were last year. As far as I understand it the hospitals can easily handle the current load.

ICU numbers are up almost 80% over where they bottomed out exactly 1 week ago...

Steen71 posted:

I asked about 2018. Do you think we should have shut down back then? And, if so, when and how much?

Your point is that if we didn't do anything in advance about a particularly gnarly flu season one year, we should accept the same amount of death from another source now. I don't think we should accept either. Considering that we could decrease influenza cases substantially by "washing our hands" and "wearing masks during flu season", I don't think there is much point in discussing the specifics of a hypothetical 2018 shutdown.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 19:16

Levitate: Sep 30, 2005; randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENI�RE IN ME

freebooter posted:

You may have more of a point about hyper-politicisation and conspiracy theories, though in that case I'd argue Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey are more influential than whoever happens to be the president.

There may be something to a person like Trump being elected president of a major world power that legitimizes that kind of thinking with other people around the world, in a way that twitter and facebook don't really "legitimize"

but I don't have anything to back that up, more hypothesizing.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 19:28

Steen71: Apr 10, 2017; Fun Shoe

Pingui posted:

I don't think we should accept either. Considering that we could decrease influenza cases substantially by "washing our hands" and "wearing masks during flu season", I don't think there is much point in discussing the specifics of a hypothetical 2018 shutdown.

So... mandatory mask-wearing every year from... December-February? Everywhere in public or just in shops? (Where employees will have to wear masks 25% of the year, I guess. I'm sure they'll enjoy that along with their lovely wages.)

# ? Feb 21, 2022 19:38

Pingui: Jun 4, 2006; WTF?

Steen71 posted:

So... mandatory mask-wearing every year from... December-February? Everywhere in public or just in shops? (Where employees will have to wear masks 25% of the year, I guess. I'm sure they'll enjoy that along with their lovely wages.)

And you get arrested for walking around naked. It is real tough participating in society.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 19:44

the holy poopacy: May 16, 2009; hey! check this out; Fun Shoe

Steen71 posted:

So... mandatory mask-wearing every year from... December-February? Everywhere in public or just in shops? (Where employees will have to wear masks 25% of the year, I guess. I'm sure they'll enjoy that along with their lovely wages.)

What you describe was largely a part of life in many Southeast Asian population centers long before 2020. What seems outlandish and unreasonable to you is normal and pedestrian to many people.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 19:48

Gio: Jun 20, 2005

Steen71 posted:

So... mandatory mask-wearing every year from... December-February? Everywhere in public or just in shops? (Where employees will have to wear masks 25% of the year, I guess. I'm sure they'll enjoy that along with their lovely wages.)

I like how the idea of seasonal mask-wearing is implied here as onerously burdensome, compared to, you know�hundreds of thousands of people dying and continually decreasing life expectancy.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 19:48

Levitate: Sep 30, 2005; randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENI�RE IN ME

Assuming the US, what's your plan to convince the large number of people (not even all of whom are far right anti maskers) that this is something they should do? What's your plan to deal with the threatening and violent protests that will follow?

yes the idea is sound and other countries do it but the US is particularly broke brained and it is a very hard ask to make something like that an accepted reality in the US. We can't even manage the barest smidgen of gun control despite the massive number of deaths from guns, mass shootings, etc

# ? Feb 21, 2022 20:02

Potato Salad: Oct 23, 2014; nobody cares

Steen71 posted:

As far as I understand it the hospitals can easily handle the current load.

I'm wondering how we would figure out an index for uhhhh... hospital strain? because the levels you're citing are from periods that were still breaking our ICUs backs, from the perspective of my mother and sister.

Like, what data could we possibly look for to see the impact on ICUs, in terms of sustainability? I can't really think of anything concrete beyond just....pouring through anecdotes.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 20:06

Steen71: Apr 10, 2017; Fun Shoe

Pingui posted:

And you get arrested for walking around naked. It is real tough participating in society.

Hey, why stop there? More than a thousand Danes die from head-injuries every year. Let's make helmet-wearing mandatory.

Just to be absolutely clear: Yes, I think wearing a mask three months every year, 8-10 hours per day is ridiculous. And if I had suggested this to people here pre-Covid, I'm pretty sure you would all have considered it equally ridiculous. But now you guys have decided that common flus can and should be eradicated.

the holy poopacy posted:

What you describe was largely a part of life in many Southeast Asian population centers long before 2020. What seems outlandish and unreasonable to you is normal and pedestrian to many people.

Wow, everyone wore masks three months every year in, say, South Korea or Japan? Was it mandatory?

# ? Feb 21, 2022 20:59

droll: Jan 9, 2020; by Azathoth

Steen71 posted:

Hey, why stop there? More than a thousand Danes die from head-injuries every year. Let's make helmet-wearing mandatory.

Just to be absolutely clear: Yes, I think wearing a mask three months every year, 8-10 hours per day is ridiculous. And if I had suggested this to people here pre-Covid, I'm pretty sure you would all have considered it equally ridiculous. But now you guys have decided that common flus can and should be eradicated.

Wow, everyone wore masks three months every year in, say, South Korea or Japan? Was it mandatory?

Are you trolling? Yes helmets should be mandatory because it prevents head injuries and long term disabilities. I can't stop other riders and drivers from unsafe behavior hurting me. I wear a helmet. Yes mask wearing should be mandatory because it saves lives and prevents disabilities. I can't stop other people infecting me from poor infectious disease behavior. I wear a mask. Requiring these basic safety measures drills it into people's heads that it's important. Do you think seatbelts should be optional?

South Korea and Japan aren't in southeast Asia.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 21:13

the holy poopacy: May 16, 2009; hey! check this out; Fun Shoe

Steen71 posted:

Hey, why stop there? More than a thousand Danes die from head-injuries every year. Let's make helmet-wearing mandatory.

Just to be absolutely clear: Yes, I think wearing a mask three months every year, 8-10 hours per day is ridiculous. And if I had suggested this to people here pre-Covid, I'm pretty sure you would all have considered it equally ridiculous. But now you guys have decided that common flus can and should be eradicated.

Wow, everyone wore masks three months every year in, say, South Korea or Japan? Was it mandatory?

It was mandatory for many lovely jobs. It was not mandatory for the general public and voluntary compliance never approached 100%, which is fine, since you are responding to a post about how even lackluster voluntary masking had a profound impact on spread of the flu.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 21:15

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

I was talking to a friend recently who remembered that after her child was born (~2014), her mother-in-law wore a mask voluntarily when she came to visit because she had a cold. Now, to said M-I-L, masks are Satanic, and when my friend reminds her she wore one once, just to be a decent person, she has no memory of it.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 21:30

Gio: Jun 20, 2005

Steen71 posted:

Just to be absolutely clear: Yes, I think wearing a mask three months every year, 8-10 hours per day is ridiculous. And if I had suggested this to people here pre-Covid, I'm pretty sure you would all have considered it equally ridiculous. But now you guys have decided that common flus can and should be eradicated.

Seems as though that�s an important detail.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 21:31

Raiad: Feb 1, 2005; Without the law, there wouldn't be lawyers.

Steen71 posted:

Hey, why stop there? More than a thousand Danes die from head-injuries every year. Let's make helmet-wearing mandatory.

I would certainly hope that helmet wearing would be mandatory if it was possible to spread head injuries by infection.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 22:45

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Discendo Vox posted:

What about it? Again the point of the cut programs and initiatives was to monitor for and stop the emergence of just such a disease in the exact place it wound up emerging.

The notion that the American CDC staff based in Beijing (which, according to a quick google, were cut by Trump from 47 down to 17) would have made a pivotal difference when weighed up against, uh, the entire Chinese state health apparatus.

Pingui posted:

Considering that we could decrease influenza cases substantially by "washing our hands" and "wearing masks during flu season", I don't think there is much point in discussing the specifics of a hypothetical 2018 shutdown.

Why are you sure you can isolate the reduction in flu cases just to hand-washing and masking and not all the lockdowns, massively reduced travel, WFH etc?

the holy poopacy posted:

What you describe was largely a part of life in many Southeast Asian population centers long before 2020. What seems outlandish and unreasonable to you is normal and pedestrian to many people.

Do you mean north-east Asia? I've travelled all over SE Asia in "winter" and rarely saw masks. Saw plenty in Japan in winter, though still way fewer than I do in the West post-COVID. I thought the culture there was to mask up out of courtesy if you had the mildest of cold symptoms, not as a default. (Rarely saw any in China or SK, but have only been there at the height of summer.)

edit - actually come to think of it I was in South Korea as the 2009 swine flu was breaking out there and people were freaking out and pulling their kids out of school, to the point where for a week there I had some classes with only one or two kids left. Still don't remember seeing many masks on the streets of Seoul, but that was a long time ago so who knows, maybe I'm just remembering wrong.

freebooter fucked around with this message at 22:55 on Feb 21, 2022

# ? Feb 21, 2022 22:52

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

I know in Thailand and I think Vietnam mask-wearing was done because of air pollution, but I really doubt that it was just a normal part of life during flu season for most people.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 23:12

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

Levitate posted:

Assuming the US, what's your plan to convince the large number of people (not even all of whom are far right anti maskers) that this is something they should do? What's your plan to deal with the threatening and violent protests that will follow?

yes the idea is sound and other countries do it but the US is particularly broke brained and it is a very hard ask to make something like that an accepted reality in the US. We can't even manage the barest smidgen of gun control despite the massive number of deaths from guns, mass shootings, etc

You can probably velvet glove a lot of mask wearing by doing radio/tv/internet ads just warning people that flu is on the rise and if you are in crowded areas to mask up to help save lives.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 23:17

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

Definitely not a fan of giving the cops mask enforcement power, but I reckon a lot of people are going to start doing it regardless.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 23:22

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# ? May 29, 2024 18:12

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Definitely not a fan of giving the cops mask enforcement power, but I reckon a lot of people are going to start doing it regardless.

Covid was the number one cause of death among police in the United States for 2021. Somehow I doubt it.

# ? Feb 21, 2022 23:35

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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