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There's no real reason to go into full semantic arguments over whether this constitutes an invasion or not right now, there are still about 5 months left on the poster's toxx clause. If we wait a bit, the whole discussion might become obsolete. If Putin doesn't invade any further, we can argue about the toxx clause in a month or 5 just as well.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:32
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ZombieLenin posted:The fact is we are closer to a major global war right this second with Putin’s move from covert occupation of Eastern Ukraine to overt occupation of Eastern Ukraine than we have been since probably the 1960s. We're really not, the West has made it very clear that a military response is off the table. Even if Russia conquered the entirety of Ukraine, which I don't think is plausible, nothing about that would trigger global war.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:32
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V. Illych L. posted:so this probably means that nord stream 2 is gone, doesn't it? big sacrifice for not a lot of gain Yeah, this really sucks. Very reckless move that’s going to make life lovely for a lot of innocent people. I still strongly doubt that this is going to result in a broader invasion/occupation beyond the breakaway regions, but this has already spun out of control. It could spin more. I hope not. This news makes me sad.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:32
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i'm sure NATO will fight bravely to the last ukrainian
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Feb 21, 2022 23:33
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Torrannor posted:There's no real reason to go into full semantic arguments over whether this constitutes an invasion or not right now, there are still about 5 months left on the poster's toxx clause. If we wait a bit, the whole discussion might become obsolete. If Putin doesn't invade any further, we can argue about the toxx clause in a month or 5 just as well. Like I said: Nobodies Toxx's are being called in until something more overt happens. Chill.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:33
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1495879255795937287 Ukrainian Armed Forces requesting citizens not to share info about military movements. Zelensky address postponed & media asked to vacate. There might not be an official response for several hours.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:34
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CommieGIR posted:Russia could invade Ukraine tomorrow and NATO, EU, and US would do nothing. There's no path to global war out of this. Other than sanctions and 'wagging of fingers' nobody is going to move any units to defend Ukraine. Putins speech did decry the loss of more NATOish countrys
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Feb 21, 2022 23:34
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Nessus posted:My own impression is that Putin smoked himself stupid thinking he would surely get the West to walk down and maybe authorize him to carve off the chunks he's moving troops into now and for once this didn't happen, and there's no actual plan on what to do in this case on his part. That's my general take, as well. Putin was convinced that simply threatening to invade Ukraine would extract all sorts of concessions from the west. When they called his bluff and dared him to shoot his hostage, he didn't seem to know what to do next. He seems to know that actually invading Ukraine is not going to go well, but now he's stuck.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:36
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https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1495889247009742854
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Feb 21, 2022 23:36
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Despera posted:Putins speech did decry the loss of more NATOish countrys Putin will be dead before Russia has the resources to pull this kind of stunt again. This, whatever "this" might end up shaping into, is his Legacy Project.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:36
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i also have a very difficult time seeing russia invade beyond the separatist regions, but they're very clearly threatening to recognise the formal claims of the breakaway republics and that could certainly happen. it would trigger further sanctions, but the russians may think it worth it - though it is once more unclear to me exactly what it is the russians are trying to accomplish here. a wedge between the continental powers and the anglo-american parts of NATO? that might explain the weird timing wrt nord stream 2
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Feb 21, 2022 23:37
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Talks with Erdogan probably mean that they’ll be arming up quite hard. Not that unexpected, I guess.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:37
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Well I’m dining in.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:37
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Despera posted:Putins speech did decry the loss of more NATOish countrys I mean the other side of this is its only reinforced that "You either join NATO or Putin invades you or validates your insurrectionists" which is not a great look for Russia.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:37
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V. Illych L. posted:so this probably means that nord stream 2 is gone, doesn't it? big sacrifice for not a lot of gain I really, really hope so. But, considering we live in the hell timeline, and considering how cowardly Germany is, As a Finn, I also fervently hope that Nato will expand north imminently (and then west why not). But... uggh
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Feb 21, 2022 23:38
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When I was reading this thread last night I noticed that there was a difference between Russian conscripts and private soldiers. Both seem Russia sourced, but private soldiers are paid better and are seemingly treated better? Are conscripts the ones that don’t get much equipment, get hazed into suicide, get their pay skimmed from higher ups so on? Or do both types of troops get that. Sorry if this is off topic, I’ll take it elsewhere. I just kept mocking the distinction here.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:38
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Deteriorata posted:That's my general take, as well. Putin was convinced that simply threatening to invade Ukraine would extract all sorts of concessions from the west. When they called his bluff and dared him to shoot his hostage, he didn't seem to know what to do next. He seems to know that actually invading Ukraine is not going to go well, but now he's stuck. this, again, would be an enormous and quite uncharacteristic miscalculation. i don't think that the russian government are idiots in this way.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:39
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V. Illych L. posted:i also have a very difficult time seeing russia invade beyond the separatist regions, but they're very clearly threatening to recognise the formal claims of the breakaway republics and that could certainly happen. it would trigger further sanctions, but the russians may think it worth it - though it is once more unclear to me exactly what it is the russians are trying to accomplish here. a wedge between the continental powers and the anglo-american parts of NATO? that might explain the weird timing wrt nord stream 2 I maintain that NS2 is a bargaining chip on the Russian side of the table and not the EU's, in which case this move makes sense.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:39
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V. Illych L. posted:i'm sure NATO will fight bravely to the last ukrainian The Ukrainian military with the budget of NATO solidly behind it would be very formidable, I bet
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Feb 21, 2022 23:39
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jaete posted:I really, really hope so. But, considering we live in the hell timeline, and considering how cowardly Germany is, NATO is absolutely not a good guy in this, you realise
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Feb 21, 2022 23:40
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CommieGIR posted:I mean the other side of this is its only reinforced that "You either join NATO or Putin invades you or validates your insurrectionists" which is not a great look for Russia. Also breaking the minsk agreements allows Ukraine to join NATO. Wether or not NATO countries are ballsy enough to let them join is a question.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:40
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V. Illych L. posted:this, again, would be an enormous and quite uncharacteristic miscalculation. i don't think that the russian government are idiots in this way. Given that for all intents, Putin IS the entirety of the Russian government: They totally could be idiots. V. Illych L. posted:NATO is absolutely not a good guy in this, you realise NATO is not actively invading anything or threatening to do so, so probably still more a good guy than Russia right now. I think its fair to say after the WONDERFUL Putin speech this afternoon, Russia is also not the good guy.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:40
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Gort posted:The Ukrainian military with the budget of NATO solidly behind it would be very formidable, I bet Just think of the size of the procurement officer's dacha!
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Feb 21, 2022 23:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Talks with Erdogan probably mean that they’ll be arming up quite hard. Not that unexpected, I guess. Trying to anyway. Erdogan's been doing the frenemy dance with Putin for a while, and outright selling weapons to kill a bunch of Russians, even in a defensive war, might put Erdogan's own projects at risk elsewhere. Or he might decide this is the perfect opportunity to gently caress Putin over while he's otherwise occupied, who knows.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:41
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V. Illych L. posted:NATO is absolutely not a good guy in this, you realise ok comrade (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 21, 2022 23:41
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Despera posted:Also breaking the minsk agreements allows Ukraine to join NATO. Wether or not NATO countries are ballsy enough to let them join is a question.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:42
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Conspiratiorist posted:I maintain that NS2 is a bargaining chip on the Russian side of the table and not the EU's, in which case this move makes sense. this does look like the russian calculus, but even then - why not wait until it was up and running? is it because they would then have contract commitments which they'd have to honour? CommieGIR posted:Given that for all intents, Putin IS the entirety of the Russian government: They totally could be idiots. i agree that the russians are the biggest assholes in this situation, but there can be more than one rear end in a top hat in a situation
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Feb 21, 2022 23:42
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Still shocked at how unhinged Putin's speech was. When I hear a world leader yelling about states that don't have the right to exist, I usually expect it to be about Israel.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:43
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V. Illych L. posted:NATO is absolutely not a good guy in this, you realise Nazis weren't good guys either, but they helped Finland fend off the soviets back when rest of the world turned their backs.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:43
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buglord posted:When I was reading this thread last night I noticed that there was a difference between Russian conscripts and private soldiers. Both seem Russia sourced, but private soldiers are paid better and are seemingly treated better? Are conscripts the ones that don’t get much equipment, get hazed into suicide, get their pay skimmed from higher ups so on? Or do both types of troops get that. Sorry if this is off topic, I’ll take it elsewhere. I just kept mocking the distinction here. When I was looking into this, it seemed like conscripts are mostly relegated to logstical roles while the maneuver units have the professional soliders.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:43
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Conspiratiorist posted:The doublebluff here possibly is that if they spark enough revanchism into whatever remains of Ukraine, NATO will absolutely never admit them because they'll drag them into a war with Russia in order to retake Crimea/Donbass/whatever else. Its a defensive alliance, they cant just invade what was thier country and go "guys a little help,"
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Feb 21, 2022 23:44
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Despera posted:ok comrade NATO's been perfectly happy to play the escalation game to justify its existence at little risk to itself. the russians *should* have known this, though, so it remains unclear what they've been driving for.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:44
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So what's the general wisdom of the thread of what the US should do? I'm just curious. Personally, I'm in the let's not do another ground war camp.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:46
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V. Illych L. posted:NATO's been perfectly happy to play the escalation game to justify its existence at little risk to itself. the russians *should* have known this, though, so it remains unclear what they've been driving for. Yeah the primary drive for this conflict is NATO and not Russian Imperialism
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Feb 21, 2022 23:46
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buglord posted:When I was reading this thread last night I noticed that there was a difference between Russian conscripts and private soldiers. Both seem Russia sourced, but private soldiers are paid better and are seemingly treated better? Are conscripts the ones that don’t get much equipment, get hazed into suicide, get their pay skimmed from higher ups so on? Or do both types of troops get that. Sorry if this is off topic, I’ll take it elsewhere. I just kept mocking the distinction here. Private soldiers are paid much better, and generally have conditions similar to second-tier western armies, like France or U.K. (to avoid WatchMojo World’s 5 Strongest Armies fight here, first tier in my mind is exclusively occupied by the U.S.). Relationship between Russian contractors and conscripts is similar to that between American COs and NCOs, if it was legal to treat NCOs worse than animals. Both groups are equipped similarly, but the shiny and new stuff is first delivered to contract troops, while conscripts will at times be forced to do practice drills in Korean War tanks.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:46
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LionArcher posted:So what's the general wisdom of the thread of what the US should do? I'm just curious. Personally, I'm in the let's not do another ground war camp. There is absolutely nothing indicating the US is going to get involved with a Ukrainian v Russia ground war.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:46
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Given the constant shelling on the line of contact it seems like a matter of time until one of the official Russian peacekeepers eats some shrapnel. Unless the Ukrainians intend to just never respond to shelling again, or the inofficial Russian troops stop shelling Ukrainian lines. Both of which seems unlikely. So this is going to deteriorate within days, not weeks, right?
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Feb 21, 2022 23:46
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V. Illych L. posted:this does look like the russian calculus, but even then - why not wait until it was up and running? is it because they would then have contract commitments which they'd have to honour? This is a plan that's been in the works since at least April if going by force buildup, and since 2019 if we go by ForEx movements. They might've expected NS2 to already be up and running, but this not being the case ultimately wasn't deemed to alter the calculus when accounting with the current status of American/European internal politics.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:47
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aphid_licker posted:Given the constant shelling on the line of contact it seems like a matter of time until one of the official Russian peacekeepers eats some shrapnel. Unless the Ukrainians intend to just never respond to shelling again, or the inofficial Russian troops stop shelling Ukrainian lines. Both of which seems unlikely. So this is going to deteriorate within days, not weeks, right? As far as I can tell, the Ukrainians have not shelled back at all. That's kind of been the issue with the LNR/DNR attempts to frame shelling as Ukrainian. It apparently has not happened.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:48
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CommieGIR posted:I mean the other side of this is its only reinforced that "You either join NATO or Putin invades you or validates your insurrectionists" which is not a great look for Russia. Well, but it’s not like there are many North Atlantic countries left to join, though. Ukraine and Georgia are no-goes, Finland and Sweden are probably going to still stay neutral for the time being, and…that’s kind of it.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:49
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