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Cugel the Clever posted:I'm now very curious what media people are consuming that they believe there's genuine concern of WW3 igniting from this crisis. It seems to be a common worry outside the thread, enough that people keep popping in to ask about it with apparent sincerity. The last time a world power launched a full-scale invasion of another country with laughable cause was the US in 2003 and they had to cheerlead that. They're a bit off their game. That's assuming you mean the US media, of course.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:19
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State Duma is session. Sounds like they'll recognize the separatists beyond the LOC. https://t.me/rian_ru/147183 Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 08:31 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 08:29
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The Communist head of Duma committee says they will recognise the republics in the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast regions, which is more than double of what separatists actually control.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:32
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Majorian posted:I mean, this was on CNN a couple days ago... I've not seen any meaningful concerns of the war spreading further in serious Western media. If anything, when the subject is raised, it's quickly shot down and rightly redirected to the long-term implications of a newly aggressive Russia. I have seen Russian media trumpeting potential invasion routes they could take into Eastern Europe, though. Cugel the Clever fucked around with this message at 08:44 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 08:32
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Paladinus posted:The Communist head of Duma committee says they will recognise the republics in the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast regions, which is more than double of what separatists actually control. I am absolutely loving shocked at this turn of events. Shocked, I tell you.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:33
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Update: he now says it's all fake news, and Russia doesn't care what borders the republics want, Russia just wants to be friends.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:37
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Not unexpected but that's basically it; no diplomatic off-ramps. UKRMil has to either get out or will be shown the way out. ED: lmao
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Feb 22, 2022 08:38
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Apparently the "Ukrainian armored vehicles" are Russian surplus that the Ukrainian military doesn't even use anymore... https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1495886456807694336?s=20&t=c_abf6F6Ot3QVSYttAkzvA
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Feb 22, 2022 08:41
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Kyiv always has been part of greater Great-Donetsk
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Feb 22, 2022 08:42
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Young Freud posted:Apparently the "Ukrainian armored vehicles" are Russian surplus that the Ukrainian military doesn't even use anymore... Yep. My fave is still the car they swapped plates on.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:42
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Paladinus posted:The Communist head of Duma committee says they will recognise the republics in the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast regions, which is more than double of what separatists actually control. well, guess that might be the announcement of war objectives then ...could be worse
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Feb 22, 2022 08:48
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:The last time a world power launched a full-scale invasion of another country with laughable cause was the US in 2003... Bit disapointed to not see any anti war protests in general I kind of remember these but was a bit young https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15_February_2003_anti-war_protests
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Feb 22, 2022 08:59
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Conspiratiorist posted:There was a moderate WW3 scare back in 2016 irt a hawkish Clinton instituting a NFZ over Syria if she won. There was never going to be WW3 due to Syria.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:05
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RaffyTaffy posted:Bit disapointed to not see any anti war protests in general Anti-war protests tend to work best when they can hold the government they're protesting against to account. Putin doesn't really care all that much what peaceniks in the West think, whereas protesting against Russian aggression in Russia is dangerous. Majorian fucked around with this message at 09:08 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 09:06
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SourKraut posted:There was never going to be WW3 due to Syria. We live in a post-truth world.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:06
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RaffyTaffy posted:Bit disapointed to not see any anti war protests in general Code Pink retweeted this tankie garbage even as Russian troops were rolling into Ukraine. https://twitter.com/codepink/status/1494872774283710466?t=QioPlz0UfFuHwvlpaPsWxQ&s=19
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Feb 22, 2022 09:10
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Cugel the Clever posted:Every word he says there is correct and also doesn't once mention the war expanding beyond Ukraine. Even barring something crazy like WMDs, if Russia chooses to go all out on Ukraine, it can in a short period achieve devastation in vast excess of what the worst battles of the Second World War took weeks to create, limited only by munitions on hand. It certainly could result in those outcomes, but "worse than World War II" is an extremely unlikely outcome - one that probably shouldn't be platformed on a major news network if you're not trying to incite panic.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:11
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Cugel the Clever posted:Yeah, I regret, but can understand why there's not much grassroots mobilization in the West. The relative silence and, in some cases, even support for the Russian invasion by supposed "anti-war" groups, though, is loving disgusting. The thing is, a lot of them truly believed that the threat of Putin invading was nonsense drummed up by Biden. Some are re-evaluating things after his speech today https://twitter.com/GravelInstitute/status/1495905779077029889
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Feb 22, 2022 09:14
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RaffyTaffy posted:Bit disapointed to not see any anti war protests in general That time the aggressor was someone people, naively, thought could be pressured by protests. Same doesn't really apply to Russia under Putin. I mean, I guess germans and italians could protest their nations governments blocking proportional sanctions, but that's about it.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:17
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Majorian posted:It certainly could result in those outcomes, but "worse than World War II" is an extremely unlikely outcome - one that probably shouldn't be platformed on a major news network if you're not trying to incite panic.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:17
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Flavahbeast posted:The thing is, a lot of them truly believed that the threat of Putin invading was nonsense drummed up by Biden. Some are re-evaluating things after his speech today kinda preposterous that they felt there was any ambiguity there (for their audience or whoever) but also check the replies
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Feb 22, 2022 09:19
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Majorian posted:It certainly could result in those outcomes, but "worse than World War II" is an extremely unlikely outcome - one that probably shouldn't be platformed on a major news network if you're not trying to incite panic. It's sort of a trivial exercise to point out that the US dropped more bombs on Vietnam than any of the belligerents managed to throw at cities in World War 2. And I suppose experts can quibble whether or not the Holocaust was a part of the war effort, per se, but that's just as dumb. However, none of this means that Russia should just get to dictate who is a country and who isn't, that isn't the kind of world order anyone wants.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:19
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Cugel the Clever posted:You yourself said in recent posts that Putin is a monster and that it's surprising he's going this far. Given the unhinged speech declaring Ukrainians a non-people, it's fair to say that the gamut of behavior we can expect from him at this point could very well extend to repeating Grozny in Ukrainian cities. Yeah, he's a monster and I am surprised he's gone this far. That doesn't mean I think his military is capable of turning this into "worse than WWII" unless he uses nukes, which he won't. e: nor, more importantly, do I think he's somehow become immune to weighing costs against benefits over the last few weeks. The costs of invading the rest of Ukraine and leveling its cities like Russia did with Chechnya would be much, much higher than any possible benefits. Rappaport posted:However, none of this means that Russia should just get to dictate who is a country and who isn't, that isn't the kind of world order anyone wants. Certainly not. All empires are bad. Putin's incarnation of the Russian state is an empire; it is bad. He is bad. gently caress him and gently caress what he's doing in Ukraine. Majorian fucked around with this message at 09:24 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 09:19
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Conspiratiorist posted:Yep. It's crazy to me how bad they are at this. Like they're not even trying. I guess they don't have to, when their media goes along with whatever they want.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:20
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Conspiratiorist posted:Right, be pedantic. Why do you hate drones so much
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Feb 22, 2022 09:24
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Cugel the Clever posted:Yeah, I regret, but can understand why there's not much grassroots mobilization in the West. The relative silence and, in some cases, even support for the Russian invasion by supposed "anti-war" groups, though, is loving disgusting. In most of the cases where it was an "anti-war" or "anti-imperialism" group or person talking about this (and they weren't just outright pro-invasion to begin with), they had been asserting constantly that almost any suggestion that Russia was actually going to invade was ridiculous, and/or that this was all carefully masterplanned puppeteering designed to trick their opponents into discrediting themselves. Current events are embarrassing them, so mostly you get silence instead of retractions of prior belief.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:25
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Cugel the Clever posted:Yeah, I regret, but can understand why there's not much grassroots mobilization in the West. The relative silence and, in some cases, even support for the Russian invasion by supposed "anti-war" groups, though, is loving disgusting. If it's "tankie" to oppose looting billions from the bank of a country you were just occupying to award to unrelated citizens of your nation, well hell,
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Feb 22, 2022 09:29
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The 'worse than WW2' comment is taking a bit out of context. They were implying the actual ground combat (thermobaric weapons) could get real ugly and possibly look worse than a WW2 battlefield. Not 30 million Russians dying... It was not the best example to use, but they were speaking to an American audience... Worst case is probably something similar to Grosny happening in Kyiv
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Feb 22, 2022 09:29
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Majorian posted:Yeah, he's a monster and I am surprised he's gone this far. That doesn't mean I think his military is capable of turning this into "worse than WWII" unless he uses nukes, which he won't. Majorian posted:e: nor, more importantly, do I think he's somehow become immune to weighing costs against benefits over the last few weeks. The costs of invading the rest of Ukraine and leveling its cities like Russia did with Chechnya would be much, much higher than any possible benefits.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:32
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Varinn posted:If it's "tankie" to oppose looting billions from the bank of a country you were just occupying to award to unrelated citizens of your nation, well hell,
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Feb 22, 2022 09:35
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Dick Ripple posted:The 'worse than WW2' comment is taking a bit out of context. They were implying the actual ground combat (thermobaric weapons) could get real ugly and possibly look worse than a WW2 battlefield. Not 30 million Russians dying... It was not the best example to use, but they were speaking to an American audience... Worst case is probably something similar to Grosny happening in Kyiv Yeah but the original question I was answering was, “why do so many people think this is going to turn into WW3?” Even if the general didn’t intend to suggest that this conflict will have the death toll of WW2 or worse, answers like that in the mainstream media are part of the reason why people have that misconception.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:35
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I wonder how motivated the Ukrainian military will be if Russia goes full invasion of the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that are not currently occupied by separatists. You're going up against a full powered nuclear armed state, if you give their conventional forces a beating what move do they make next? After that Putin speech about how Ukraine isn't a real country you have to think that if it does come down to conventional war between the Ukrainian and Russian armies it becomes very much an existential crisis for Ukraine as Russia can force a win 'at any cost' if it really wants to. It's feels different from 2014 and the war since then because now it's the actual and official Russian army and not 'rebels'. There isn't the same loss of face in a proxy war. Basically the West needs to step up big time if it cares about territory changing hands in Ukraine. It's all well and good not recognising Russian controlled Ukraine but facts on the ground mean far more than hot air.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:41
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Majorian posted:Yeah but the original question I was answering was, “why do so many people think this is going to turn into WW3?” Even if the general didn’t intend to suggest that this conflict will have the death toll of WW2 or worse, answers like that in the mainstream media are part of the reason why people have that misconception.  That doesn't mean the media shouldn't be speaking clearly about Putin's capabilities and malign intentions, though. In fact, the vocal contingent of contrarians inflating otherwise benign statements of fact into bloodthirsty neocon warmongering and blasting that narrative out in social media is probably more likely to be loving with the average low-context poster than examples like the above.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:50
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Flayer posted:I wonder how motivated the Ukrainian military will be if Russia goes full invasion of the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that are not currently occupied by separatists. You're going up against a full powered nuclear armed state, if you give their conventional forces a beating what move do they make next? After that Putin speech about how Ukraine isn't a real country you have to think that if it does come down to conventional war between the Ukrainian and Russian armies it becomes very much an existential crisis for Ukraine as Russia can force a win 'at any cost' if it really wants to. Kharkiv and Mariupol are basically in the borders that Donetsk and Luhansk separatists are claiming. That's like 2 million people, almost 5% of the population of Ukraine. There is no doubt in my mind that Ukraine isn't going to give those up without a fight.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:56
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Worth remembering that any time huge news is breaking, people wander in to d&d to read up on and get a feel for what is happening and idk it's entirely understandable that people hear 'new war in europe' and don't intrinsically understand exactly what scale that will be on hell, none of us know for sure. I don't think it's turning into a world war, but most big wars smart as small wars, so I particularly don't think it's unreasonable for people to be worried about it. Hell, thread consensus on the likely scope of hostilities has changed several times in the last 48 hours alone.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:56
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RaffyTaffy posted:Bit disapointed to not see any anti war protests in general Anti-war movements now tend to have an isolationist vector and expect every agressive country to have their own active anti-war movement. Predictably, this does not account for the simple fact that not-democratic countries exist and that they dont tolerate protestors. Very convenient. Stop the war coalition for example still havent said anything after Putin's speech but they are useless here so let it just be on their conscience. The Gravel kids statement is good but only useful for whatever asinine interleft beefs they engage this week. Other posters are right that westerners camping around Russian embassies wont accomplish anything but make some people feel good about themselves one way or the other.
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Feb 22, 2022 09:57
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Cugel the Clever posted:I mean, they'd have to be morons to parse that from what was said, but... as a very important aside, iirc that line was an improvisation and the sheriff's hearty giggle was legitimate corpsing on camera
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Feb 22, 2022 09:57
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Worth remembering that any time huge news is breaking, people wander in to d&d to read up on and get a feel for what is happening and idk it's entirely understandable that people hear 'new war in europe' and don't intrinsically understand exactly what scale that will be on
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Feb 22, 2022 10:06
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Cugel the Clever posted:Yeah, I regret, but can understand why there's not much grassroots mobilization in the West. The relative silence and, in some cases, even support for the Russian invasion by supposed "anti-war" groups, though, is loving disgusting.
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Feb 22, 2022 10:31
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true.spoon posted:Unfortunately a not insignificant portion of the left still can see foreign relations only through the lense of the Iraq war (and only in a very narrow way that focuses on the US and "the West" ). Goes back further than that. There's a portion of the left who are still absolutely furious at the Soviet Union for giving up and betraying them.
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