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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
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Honest Thief
Jan 11, 2009

danke

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Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


Ardennes posted:

I mean they are already recognized Russian proxy states with Russian troops in them.

I do think part of the Kremlin’s motivation is that is was getting more difficult to manage the “hybrid war” in the Donbas and with Ukraine slowly upgrading its military, there was the question if Ukraine was going to push a major offensive.

Sure if ukraine invades crimea or either pseudo independent area they're hosed but i think this is headed to like a decade long proxy terror war in all 3 territories

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

bold of them to admit that Kiev has long historically been a major cultural center of Russia long before modern dynamics such as Moscow's formation began.

Archduke Frantz Fanon
Sep 7, 2004

Joementum posted:

If anything, Kiev was just spending way too much on domed churches. You don't need that many!

they never should have listened to the byzantines and stopped worshipping the old gods

Popoto
Oct 21, 2012

miaow

Honest Thief posted:

nordstream 2 is dead
lol shits going to be funny

https://twitter.com/GuyChazan/status/1496077887996366849

NS2 isn't online, right? So that means nothing will change right now in terms of gas prices for Germans. My other question though: I'm under the impression that Germans need Russian gas more than Russia needs to sell it to Germany. They currently are selling through Ukraine, correct? What's stopping the Russians of shutting of the valve to pressure Germany?

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth
I love all the replies all 'OH SNAP'. Just the dumbest loving Americans with know historical knowledge treating this like a twitter beef.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

What did DC look like at any of those dates?

I always wonder about the thought process behind this tweet from the country that invaded and sacked Mesopotamia.

U.S. admits military damaged Babylon ruins - A senior U.S. military officer said Friday he is willing to apologize for damage troops in Iraq caused to the ancient ruins of Babylon.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

sexpig by night posted:

bold of them to admit that Kiev has long historically been a major cultural center of Russia long before modern dynamics such as Moscow's formation began.

No Rus, no Rus, YOU ARE THE RUS!!!

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

Popoto posted:

What's stopping the Russians of shutting of the valve to pressure Germany?

Pressure them to do what?

Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008



If they really want to troll them they should make fun of how the mongols ruled the moscovy princes for hundreds of years with very little effort. There was even a revisionist history tendency in the ussr to pretend they were never under the tatar yoke. But i guess Kiev was also conquered but this is the us embassy so gently caress it

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Joementum posted:

If anything, Kiev was just spending way too much on domed churches. You don't need that many!

someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my country is getting invaded

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Honest Thief posted:

nordstream 2 is dead
lol shits going to be funny

https://twitter.com/GuyChazan/status/1496077887996366849

So who are they going to buy gas from now? The USA?

ram dass in hell
Dec 29, 2019



:420::toot::420:

Lyndon LaRouche posted:

I also recognize their undeniable sovereignty. The rest of the based world shall soon follow.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Frosted Flake posted:

What did DC look like at any of those dates?

DC before it was cultivated by the nascent American state was a humid lowland. It's become a widespread myth that DC used to be a swamp, when really it's just that the climate is so unpleasant it gives you swamp rear end.

Anime Schoolgirl
Nov 28, 2002

Cpt_Obvious posted:

So who are they going to buy gas from now? The USA?
i have serious doubts about the US being able to supply enough natural gas for Europe

Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


Frosted Flake posted:

What did DC look like at any of those dates?

Slam on native americans outta nowhere

Popoto
Oct 21, 2012

miaow

smoobles posted:

Pressure them to do what?

To give in to NS2 and align towards neutrality instead of against their interests, effectively undermining NATO.

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/st...n-border-threat

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010



Anime Schoolgirl posted:

i have serious doubts about the US being able to supply enough natural gas for Europe

Even if they could it would be like triple the cost

If only the centrist libs had continued to develop nuclear energy instead of going into reactionary panic when fukushima happened

mortons stork
Oct 13, 2012

gradenko_2000 posted:

someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my country is getting invaded

spend less on nazi militias

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

DC before it was cultivated by the nascent American state was a humid lowland. It's become a widespread myth that DC used to be a swamp, when really it's just that the climate is so unpleasant it gives you swamp rear end.

Yeah plus some presidents died since things like the local climate, constant flooding and water were so horrible back in the day.

ikanreed
Sep 25, 2009

I honestly I have no idea who cannibal[SIC] is and I do not know why I should know.

syq dude, just syq!

Man I wonder what Washington DC was like then

PhilippAchtel
May 31, 2011

ilmucche posted:

Lol

So what's the long term game plan? Russia is slowly destabilizing separatist areas around them to install friendly governments?

I get the arguments that Ukraine is fascist etc but what us Russia trying to accomplish? I don't think they'd be doing this out of the goodness of their hearts

Seizing sympathetic areas of neighboring countries keeps those nations from meeting NATO admission requirements. It also reinforces Russia's status as protector of ethnic Russians both inside and outside Russia.

PhilippAchtel
May 31, 2011

brugroffil posted:

Imo Putin is a Bad Dude and not a friend of the left

On the one hand, yeah, obviously.

On the other:

https://twitter.com/Louis_Allday/status/1496035535592300549

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Popoto posted:

NS2 isn't online, right? So that means nothing will change right now in terms of gas prices for Germans. My other question though: I'm under the impression that Germans need Russian gas more than Russia needs to sell it to Germany. They currently are selling through Ukraine, correct? What's stopping the Russians of shutting of the valve to pressure Germany?

Oil futures will rise because the market expected NS2 to come online in time for winter and increase the supply and now they have to weight if it won’t.

Germany receives a lot of oil through Nord Steam 1. I don’t know what the breakdown is between the different pipeline routes.

The Puppet Master
Apr 9, 2005

Would you fuck me? I'd fuck me. I'd fuck me hard.









the Instagram propo is up

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Popoto posted:

NS2 isn't online, right? So that means nothing will change right now in terms of gas prices for Germans. My other question though: I'm under the impression that Germans need Russian gas more than Russia needs to sell it to Germany. They currently are selling through Ukraine, correct? What's stopping the Russians of shutting of the valve to pressure Germany?

Theoretically, not much. Shutting off the gas also does major harm to Ukraine because of the way the pipeline works, in addition to the loss of transit revenue. Actually doing so, however, would be a major escalation in economic terms, since they never shut off the gas before (in the past they have reduced it to minimal contractual requirements, but that was interpreted as a blow against Ukraine, not against Europe, because they were still meeting the contractual exports to European consumers). Not bringing Nord Stream 2 online doesn't actually change the current gas status quo the same way Putin recognizing DNR/LNR and deploying peacekeepers doesn't actually change the current military status quo. Shutting off the gas supply to Europe would be a big change in the status quo.

On top of that, it probably isn't something that Russia wants, because it would be further evidence for those who say Russia is just an inherently malign actor that wants to dominate all of Europe, and it would push Europe into closer ties with the US which is offering to make up for any shortfalls in Russian gas supplies. Right now one of the things stopping Europe from going all-in on the US's anti-Russian strategy is their relatively close economic ties to Russia, including reliance on gas imports (as well as oligarch money laundering, etc.). If Russia starts loving with those ties from its end, it takes away Europe's incentive not to respond more harshly to Russian actions, and pushes them towards closer economic ties with the US instead.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Cpt_Obvious posted:

So who are they going to buy gas from now? The USA?

RWN guest says USA's LNG, which might mean shortages for asia

Honest Thief
Jan 11, 2009

vyelkin posted:

those who say Russia is just an inherently malign actor that wants to dominate all of Europe, and it would push Europe into closer ties with the US which is offering to make up for any shortfalls in Russian gas supplies.
this is by far the craziest thing I see thrown around along with maps of europe and a tweet like "what other democracies he wont recognise, where will he stop?"

antipattern
Nov 8, 2019

I doubt they'll actually kill Nordstream 2. Energy prices are hosed as is in Europe and this would make it worse. I reckon once the dust has settled after a week or two of posturing to look tough on Russia, it'll be back to business as usual.

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
isn't the natgas export of both usa and qatar (2nd biggest exporters after russia) less than what just eu imports from russia lol

there's no loving way they sanction the natgas. eu actually needs it while russia can just sell it to china a bit cheaper if eu deal falls through lol

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

etalian posted:

Yeah plus some presidents died since things like the local climate, constant flooding and water were so horrible back in the day.

They died because all of those factors combined backed up their lovely sewage system, and they all caught gut diseases from the doo doo water.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
https://twitter.com/bneeditor/status/1496129485359439888?s=20&t=9xQC18OZZS7yr456MqhL2Q

Popoto
Oct 21, 2012

miaow

vyelkin posted:

Theoretically, not much. Shutting off the gas also does major harm to Ukraine because of the way the pipeline works, in addition to the loss of transit revenue. Actually doing so, however, would be a major escalation in economic terms, since they never shut off the gas before (in the past they have reduced it to minimal contractual requirements, but that was interpreted as a blow against Ukraine, not against Europe, because they were still meeting the contractual exports to European consumers). Not bringing Nord Stream 2 online doesn't actually change the current gas status quo the same way Putin recognizing DNR/LNR and deploying peacekeepers doesn't actually change the current military status quo. Shutting off the gas supply to Europe would be a big change in the status quo.

On top of that, it probably isn't something that Russia wants, because it would be further evidence for those who say Russia is just an inherently malign actor that wants to dominate all of Europe, and it would push Europe into closer ties with the US which is offering to make up for any shortfalls in Russian gas supplies. Right now one of the things stopping Europe from going all-in on the US's anti-Russian strategy is their relatively close economic ties to Russia, including reliance on gas imports (as well as oligarch money laundering, etc.). If Russia starts loving with those ties from its end, it takes away Europe's incentive not to respond more harshly to Russian actions, and pushes them towards closer economic ties with the US instead.

Yeah, this makes sense. Thanks :)

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
https://www.intellinews.com/breaking-german-government-removes-key-document-kills-off-the-nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline-235771

quote:

The Germany government has withdrawn a key document needed to certify the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, making it impossible to complete the process, AP reported on February 22.

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Mr Hootington posted:

Uk sanctions are a joke

par for the course

The Puppet Master
Apr 9, 2005

Would you fuck me? I'd fuck me. I'd fuck me hard.



Truga posted:

isn't the natgas export of both usa and qatar (2nd biggest exporters after russia) less than what just eu imports from russia lol

there's no loving way they sanction the natgas. eu actually needs it while russia can just sell it to china a bit cheaper if eu deal falls through lol

they don't have the infrastructure ready to just turn the tap to China. ns2 is a direct link from the field to Germany. to go to China would require years of building new pipes

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

My assumption is that Nord Stream comes back online if the crisis ends here, because otherwise it seems pretty disproportional to what meaningfully changed yesterday. And Russia's running out of things to lose if they feel like grabbing more territory if there aren't incentives to stop now.

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

antipattern posted:

I doubt they'll actually kill Nordstream 2. Energy prices are hosed as is in Europe and this would make it worse. I reckon once the dust has settled after a week or two of posturing to look tough on Russia, it'll be back to business as usual.

Don't think we're talking about a matter of weeks, but I'd assume the German gov will try to sneak it back in in time to fill the tanks for (next) winter.

Truga posted:

isn't the natgas export of both usa and qatar (2nd biggest exporters after russia) less than what just eu imports from russia lol

there's no loving way they sanction the natgas. eu actually needs it while russia can just sell it to china a bit cheaper if eu deal falls through lol

There's no pipe from those fields to China I'd thought?

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vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Truga posted:

isn't the natgas export of both usa and qatar (2nd biggest exporters after russia) less than what just eu imports from russia lol

there's no loving way they sanction the natgas. eu actually needs it while russia can just sell it to china a bit cheaper if eu deal falls through lol


The Puppet Master posted:

they don't have the infrastructure ready to just turn the tap to China. ns2 is a direct link from the field to Germany. to go to China would require years of building new pipes

yeah, was about to post this. Pipeline capacity is a big deal for natgas exports.

These are Russia's export pipelines:



Export capacity to China is a fraction of export capacity to Europe even without NS2, they can't simply turn the tap to China on higher because the pipelines aren't there.

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