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ronya posted:A statistic I picked up from: https://books.google.com/books?id=g5CATmJzU0wC&pg=PT198#v=onepage&q&f=false. No citation, but plausible; Russia inherited a disproportionate share of the military industries of the former USSR so the problem initially actually became worse as a share of national production I was under the impression that it was widely known that the Soviet Union, Russia especially, pushed their economy full force into being military focused during the 80s and 90s. This makes sense since Communism stopped being fruitful during the 70s so they had to find an alternative to keep the economic engine running. Like most authoritarian states, they chose to put their money into making a military economy.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:36
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Discendo Vox posted:This is a pretty good example of why it's important to provide context for tweets. OTOH so far most of the leaks posted itt via random twitter users such as "IntelTwerp69" have been shockingly accurate.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:37
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HonorableTB posted:Albania left the Warsaw Pact True, but bit of a special case as it had no land border with other WP countries. Harder for the USSR to drive tanks in when they have to go via Belgrade.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:37
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Saladman posted:I mean, Romania and Bulgaria aren't even really fully in the EU yet (they are neither part of Schengen, nor Eurozone), and god knows when that will happen, but it's taken them way longer than Croatia, which officially joined way later. And yeah, I know those things are separate, but they're not supposed to be in the long run. This is not correct - Romania and Bulgaria are EU members with full rights just as any other country. The Schengen treaty and Eurozone membership are fully optional and do not reflect a “full” EU membership.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:38
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punk rebel ecks posted:I was under the impression that it was widely known that the Soviet Union, Russia especially, pushed their economy full force into being military focused during the 80s and 90s. The USSR relied on arms exports for longer than that as a source of hard currency. Exports have historically been a problem for the USSR- what really helped them was oil production and arms production, which let them actually import things.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:39
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Kavros posted:I mean, stuff like this is often said, but never seems to interrupt the lavishness of most of their lives or the degrees of freedom they have as oligarchs to plunder their own country. As usual I think the already-not-doing-great population will have it the worst.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:41
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God, just thinking about Putin's poo poo about "ancient Russian land" has me extra mad today. How about we gift all of Eurasia from China to Germany's eastern border to Mongolia, it's ancient primordial Mongolian land.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:41
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Descendants of archaic humans unite.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:48
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projecthalaxy posted:Oh good. I guess there aren't any troops and no one's bombing my hometown. Must have imagined it! steinrokkan posted:OTOH so far most of the leaks posted itt via random twitter users such as "IntelTwerp69" have been shockingly accurate. I hear you and I'm not saying it's false, but it's also like the other specific time/date claims, anonymous, caveated, and not nearly as certain or reliable as presented in tweet form.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:48
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Fabulous Knight posted:God, just thinking about Putin's poo poo about "ancient Russian land" has me extra mad today. How about we gift all of Eurasia from China to Germany's eastern border to Mongolia, it's ancient primordial Mongolian land. Its just schoolyard bully taunting at its core. Of course Putin's going to try and antagonize his opponents with silly justifications. I'd be more worried about old man Putin feeling the end approaching and realizing he can't take his military with him when he dies, so might as well get his use out of it while he still can....
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Feb 23, 2022 17:48
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For what it's worth, at least CNN seems to be confirming Newsweek's reporting. https://twitter.com/KatieBoLillis/status/1496527145325240324
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Feb 23, 2022 17:50
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steinrokkan posted:OTOH so far most of the leaks posted itt via random twitter users such as "IntelTwerp69" have been shockingly accurate. After embarrassing myself quick reposting something from bellingcat I've made an effort vetting my sources.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:50
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The thought that keeps occurring to me is if Russia invades successfully and holds on to Ukrainian territory what, if any, means do the international community have of "persuading" Russia to give that territory back? Do they just create a puppet/client state or what? I dont think I understand how Putin thinks the long term consequences of this unfold?
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Feb 23, 2022 17:54
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Conspiratiorist posted:After embarrassing myself quick reposting something from bellingcat I've made an effort vetting my sources. Bellingcat has been on point re. Ukraine since 2014 AFAIK, despite their pretty substantial failures pretty much everywhere else, though?
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Feb 23, 2022 17:55
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StarBegotten posted:The thought that keeps occurring to me is if Russia invades successfully and holds on to Ukrainian territory what, if any, means do the international community have of "persuading" Russia to give that territory back? I assume it'll be crimea 2. The US asks real nice for the territory to be returned, Russia says no, the US gets bored and wanders off, Russia just does whatever it wants. Repeat in 2024 for the central plains, then 2027 for the western oblasts
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Feb 23, 2022 17:57
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steinrokkan posted:Bellingcat has been on point re. Ukraine since 2014 AFAIK, despite their pretty substantial failures pretty much everywhere else, though? rt'd a literally nothing rando spouting nonsense StarBegotten posted:The thought that keeps occurring to me is if Russia invades successfully and holds on to Ukrainian territory what, if any, means do the international community have of "persuading" Russia to give that territory back? Scholz brokers a peace agreement that guarantees NS2 in exchange for an end to the violence.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:58
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StarBegotten posted:The thought that keeps occurring to me is if Russia invades successfully and holds on to Ukrainian territory what, if any, means do the international community have of "persuading" Russia to give that territory back? I don't think there's much to be done. Force is the only thing Russia actually balks at, and Putin is going to continue with the policy of "Ukraine isn't a real country, Russia made that" Conspiratiorist posted:Scholz brokers a peace agreement that guarantees NS2 in exchange for an end to the violence. Man I am not going to be surprised if, within weeks of this, NS2 goes forward anyways.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:58
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StarBegotten posted:The thought that keeps occurring to me is if Russia invades successfully and holds on to Ukrainian territory what, if any, means do the international community have of "persuading" Russia to give that territory back? Wait for Putin to die and pray that his successor is less proud and more easily bribed
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Feb 23, 2022 18:02
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I seriously doubt NS2 has been buried for good. They'll wait couple years for things to cool down and maybe change the name or something like that.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:02
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BoldFace posted:I seriously doubt NS2 has been buried for good. They'll wait couple years for things to cool down and maybe change the name or something like that. I don't think they'll even wait years. Its basically a linchpin to Germany's energy strategy after shuttering their nuclear. They don't have years.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:03
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Fabulous Knight posted:God, just thinking about Putin's poo poo about "ancient Russian land" has me extra mad today. How about we gift all of Eurasia from China to Germany's eastern border to Mongolia, it's ancient primordial Mongolian land. Like when my father has a few whiskeys he mentions we may be descendant from Ghengis Khan because his son shares our name and there’s some history there (long with like millions of others). So if these bozos have some historical claim bullshit then I lay claim to Russia, China and Turkey. I just need the military to push it through.  When I am ruler I will call China - West Taiwan, Russia will be Murica 2 and Turkey will be called Chicken because I prefer it. So neener.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:06
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CommieGIR posted:I don't think they'll even wait years. Its basically a linchpin to Germany's energy strategy after shuttering their nuclear. They don't have years. They were under pressure to get that poo poo up and running before next Winter. Schröder is chairman of the board of directors of the Nord Stream 2 AG and Merkel also supported it. German leadership, speaking as a consensus, is currently extremely unhappy and it's not with Russia.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:06
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Conspiratiorist posted:They were under pressure to get that poo poo up and running before next Winter. Schröder is chairman of the board of directors of the Nord Stream 2 AG and Merkel also supported it. I think western leaders in general are dramatically overestimating how forgiving their publics will be if they start seeing pocketbook consequences for the new sanctions. Whether you think it's right or wrong, I just don't see the kind of outpouring of support that suggests to me people are willing to make sacrifices for this, especially if it doesn't even prevent the invasion. I think coming right on the heels of a pandemic in which we were all asked to made major sacrifices probably has something to do with the public's impatience if it does come to that.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:12
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BoldFace posted:I seriously doubt NS2 has been buried for good. They'll wait couple years for things to cool down and maybe change the name or something like that. Yeah, it's gonna be at least a couple of years if there is ever an attempt to revive the project. There is nothing time critical about NS2 itself. The hope was that if NS2 goes online, Russia would stop withholding gas from the spot market(they do this for political reasons) and prices will stabilize, but that hope is now gone. Europe's gas demand can be easily met by existing gas infrastructure.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:13
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Sinteres posted:I think western leaders in general are dramatically overestimating how forgiving their publics will be if they start seeing pocketbook consequences for the new sanctions. Whether you think it's right or wrong, I just don't see the kind of outpouring of support that suggests to me people are willing to make sacrifices for this, especially if it doesn't even prevent the invasion. I think coming right on the heels of a pandemic in which we were all asked to made major sacrifices probably has something to do with the public's impatience if it does come to that. They're hoping to shift the blame on negative economic effects to Russia. US Press is already blaming inflation on them.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:14
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Gatts posted:Like when my father has a few whiskeys he mentions we may be descendant from Ghengis Khan because his son shares our name and there’s some history there (long with like millions of others). So if these bozos have some historical claim bullshit then I lay claim to Russia, China and Turkey. I just need the military to push it through. Where's that picture where certain segments of Koreans claim that the Joseon empire spanned to Britain?
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Feb 23, 2022 18:14
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Conspiratiorist posted:They're hoping to shift the blame on negative economic effects to Russia. In the US (and probably elsewhere too) I think a bunch of people are just going to roll their eyes at hearing everything's Russia's fault again, especially with Pelosi explicitly linking it to election interference in 2016. Like I imagine the sentiment is going to be something like that's hosed up and someone should stop them, or maybe Biden's weak for not being able to stop them, but why the gently caress am I paying more for gas/heating? Western voters can't kick Putin out of being president of Russia, so the only people they can take it out on are their own politicians.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:17
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Pook Good Mook posted:Where's that picture where certain segments of Koreans claim that the Joseon empire spanned to Britain? I'm assuming you don't mean the Finno-Korean Hyperwar maps?
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Feb 23, 2022 18:19
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https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1496520867626561543
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Feb 23, 2022 18:21
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I'm seriously burned out by the imminent attack/48 hours tweets/stories. This is crying wolf territory for me.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:22
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Doctor Butts posted:I'm seriously burned out by the imminent attack/48 hours tweets/stories. This is crying wolf territory for me. Same, but at the same time there can be a tangible benefit to broadcasting enemy plans earlier. We may never know if they originally planned to fully invade 2/16, but the argument can be made that the constant broadcast of that date may have forced them to push it back.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:25
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Doctor Butts posted:I'm seriously burned out by the imminent attack/48 hours tweets/stories. This is crying wolf territory for me. The wolf is right loving there in the bushes. Its eyes are glowing and its growling. There's blood on its snout. IDK what else to tell you.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:25
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GABA ghoul posted:Yeah, it's gonna be at least a couple of years if there is ever an attempt to revive the project. There is nothing time critical about NS2 itself. The hope was that if NS2 goes online, Russia would stop withholding gas from the spot market(they do this for political reasons) and prices will stabilize, but that hope is now gone. Europe's gas demand can be easily met by existing gas infrastructure. I doubt it, the Greens really don't like NS2 and our new foreign minister's comments last year show they mean business. If the other two parties in the coalition push the thing through against their will, the current government of Germany will just collapse when they walk out and then Scholz gets to go home early. I'm fairly sure Scholz isn't willing to risk his job, so NS2 will stay dead regardless of what happens in the rest of the world.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:25
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To an extent public support for sanctions will depend on how the invasion unfolds. If we see Russian forces besieging and bombing cities for months I don't think it'll be difficult to maintain support in the long run.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:30
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Doctor Butts posted:I'm seriously burned out by the imminent attack/48 hours tweets/stories. This is crying wolf territory for me. I don’t understand why everyone here is so hung up on the fact that if Biden/NATO can’t predict exactly when Putin sticks his dick in Kiev (no take-backsies) they are crying wolf
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Feb 23, 2022 18:30
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Randarkman posted:Also Cyprus. (Greek) Cypriots trend pretty strongly Russophile, even if lots of them are kind of seeing themselves in the Ukrainians right now. I don't see poo poo happening there without some enormous outside pressure.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:30
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https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1496525189303128067 This will be a fun new chapter, if nuclear powers openly cyberattack each other instead of just sanctioning when mad. Blow off a little steam, but try not to end civilization. Exit: article clarifies it's retaliation if their networks are hit, not Ukraine's, so maybe not as much of an escalation as the tweet makes it seem like. coelomate fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 18:33
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coelomate posted:This will be a fun new chapter, if nuclear powers openly cyberattack each other instead of just sanctioning when mad. Blow off a little steam, but try not to end civilization. Just as when Biden more formally announced it rather than just saying it off the cuff because he's old idiot grandpa, Wallace is saying they'll do it if British computer systems are attacked. Ukraine's on her own.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:36
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coelomate posted:https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1496525189303128067 Will Pornhub be ok? Perhaps blocking the people’s porn will spur revolution.
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Feb 23, 2022 18:38
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coelomate posted:https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1496525189303128067 Eh, this already happens. There's not been a case where cyberattacks turn into physical retaliation yet for the exact reason that its REALLY difficult to do attribution and everybody does it. E: Anybody calling for physical retaliation to cyberattacks is a moron. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 18:39
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