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coelomate posted:https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1496525189303128067 You are acting as if the Russian Federation is not already on record—though they of course deny everything—as having conducted multiple cyber attacks against both American governmental and private civilian organizations; including, I would add, actively engaging in electoral interference in the United States. I’m a hawk by no means, but it’s not like this would an escalation, unless you believe a like-kind response to what the Russian Federation has been doing for years is some sort of an escalation. If you want me to be perfectly honest, given the history of the covert military apparatus of the United States, I am very surprised that the West has shown the restraint it has over the last two decades. Particularly when you consider that Putin has used both radioactive poisons and nerve agents to assassinate political opponents on the soil of NATO member states. I feel like I also need to remind everyone that these attacks have resulted in the injury and death of citizens of said NATO member states, some of whom were not in any way related to the target of the assassination attempts. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 19:49 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 19:46
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A cyberwar with Russia would be catastrophic for the United States because American critical infrastructure is hilariously vulnerable to cyberattacks. There's essentially no security for most things and American officials have gone on record warning about how badly dams, power plants, and telecom infrastructure are going to get owned in a cyberwar scenario
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Feb 23, 2022 19:51
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OctaMurk posted:Iraq and Afghanistan were both cases where the occupiers came from halfway around the world, didnt speak the language, had literally zero understanding of local culture and customs, didnt look like the local people, and ultimately the occupiers didnt really want to be there. The Russians dont have those disadvantages. Not that occupying Ukraine is going to be easy but the Russians got a lot going for them compared to America in the ME Chechnya offers a brutally effective solution for dealing with insurgencies. And funding and weapons flowed into Iraq and Afghanistan from a number of directions. The location and geography of Ukraine makes this somewhat more difficult.
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Feb 23, 2022 19:51
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Not sourcing because there's too much at once so I'll summarize, sorry. RusMil has gone EMCON. TASS confirms beginning of evacuation for all Russian diplomatic missions in Ukraine (OSINT says they're all already gone). DDoS underway targeting Ukrainian government websites. Per Ukrainian Mil, Civilian observers withdrawing from LOC border checkpoints. Head of DPR Pushilin just ordered Ukrainian forces to disarm and leave the territory of the DPR.
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Feb 23, 2022 19:55
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https://twitter.com/ramzpaul/status/1496533657795928076?s=21 Paint this on the side of a stinger
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Feb 23, 2022 19:55
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How good is NATO at keeping a leash on Poland lest it send men to Ukraine in a panic? I assume 'well'?
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Feb 23, 2022 19:58
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Conspiratiorist posted:Not sourcing because there's too much at once so I'll summarize, sorry. EMCON for those who don't know means "emissions control" in context of a military force being ordered to go radio silent to prevent transmission leakage, "emissions".
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Feb 23, 2022 20:00
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Another problem with speculating about a potential cyber war with Russia is that cyber war is kinda like espionage, where you want to hold your trump cards close to your chest because the second you use them they're spent and the enemy can start taking actions against them. If I was a Russian cybersecurity person I'd be more worried by the silence than anything, because that to me just means that systems are compromised and they don't know yet. Or the West just sucks at computers, which honestly is probably the real answer.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:02
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Grouchio posted:How good is NATO at keeping a leash on Poland lest it send men to Ukraine in a panic? I assume 'well'? If I was Poland and for some reason certain about spillover, I still think I'd just reinforce my border, not send my troops forward without NATO allies backing me up. The US is the only one that will make the call to send troops into Ukraine, and they will not be making that call.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:02
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Owling Howl posted:Chechnya offers a brutally effective solution for dealing with insurgencies. Sure, but of course what you are saying seems pretty dismissive of the fact that Ukraine shares a 332 mile long border with a literal member of NATO. Which, is meaningful for two reasons. If Russia launches a “full scale” invasion of Ukraine, I find it very unlikely they will advance much farther West than Kiev, and certainly not all the way to the border of Poland, which would make border interdiction pretty hard. And unlike the United States in Afghanistan, the Russians will not have the option of covert interdiction through air power or drones on the Polish side of the border, unless of course they want to start a real war with NATO… Which, despite me thinking Putin is being a reckless idiot as is, I don’t think the man is that stupid. Edit. I left out Hungary and Romania. Hungary I have no excuse, but Romania I tend to forget was now a NATO member—which is pretty terrible too since that’s where, until recently, the only European Anti-Ballistic Missile System installations were. So that’s like an 850 mile border Ukraine shares with NATO. Good luck to the Russian Federation trying to interdict that border in the case of a full invasion of Ukraine without ‘accidentally’ starting a global war. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 20:03
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Grouchio posted:How good is NATO at keeping a leash on Poland lest it send men to Ukraine in a panic? I assume 'well'? What is it with your obsession about Polish armies marching into Ukraine?
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Feb 23, 2022 20:05
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cinci zoo sniper posted:What is it with your obsession about Polish armies marching into Ukraine? quote:[Poland would be told to stay put by NATO?] You assume they'd listen.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:07
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HonorableTB posted:A cyberwar with Russia would be catastrophic for the United States because American critical infrastructure is hilariously vulnerable to cyberattacks. There's essentially no security for most things and American officials have gone on record warning about how badly dams, power plants, and telecom infrastructure are going to get owned in a cyberwar scenario I think you and I are on the same page there; however, while I think Boris Johnson is an idiot, I only take his response to mean that if the Russian Federation tries to initiate some sort of cyber war, the West (or at least the UK) is no longer just going to sit there and take it, but respond in kind.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:08
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ZombieLenin posted:
While I also don't think he's going to attack Poland or anything that insane, we've already crossed several "Surely Putin can't be that stupid" lines over the last couple weeks as it is.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:08
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Paladinus posted:How could they make a typo on it? It's a Khyber Pass copy.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:08
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yeah honestly I don’t think the ukranians genuinely have it in them to successfully wage a long term insurgency because not only do they not have a political ideology strong enough to sustain the sacrifices the way Islamists or tribal folk tend to have it’s also, let’s be real, going to be suicidal to go up against an army that has genuine experience and success in putting down popular uprisings to keep minoritarian genocidal dictators in power. i got bad news to the ukranians, if Russia and it’s Allie’s can get away with sarin gassing thousands of people in Syria to put down a city, they can absolutely get away with it in Ukraine. Maybe I’m wrong, I hope I’m wrong and people don’t needlessly die.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:09
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ZombieLenin posted:Sure, but of course what you are saying seems pretty dismissive of the fact that Ukraine shares a 332 mile long border with a literal member of NATO. If the remaining Ukrainian military has been pushed past Lviv Russia will not be worrying about air power on the Polish border.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:09
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OctaMurk posted:Iraq and Afghanistan were both cases where the occupiers came from halfway around the world, didnt speak the language, had literally zero understanding of local culture and customs, didnt look like the local people, and ultimately the occupiers didnt really want to be there. The Russians dont have those disadvantages. Not that occupying Ukraine is going to be easy but the Russians got a lot going for them compared to America in the ME To piggyback off this, the Russians also will be able to utilize artillery much more effectively than in afghanistan. It's not like the ukrainians are going to be locked into mountains. There will be a lot of route and area denial because of the Russian arty threat. The other things the Russians have going for them is the effectiveness of their combined arms strategy. Well yes it worked in Afghanistan it's going to work much more effectively here because of mobility. And most likely the ukrainians haven't set up defense in depth capable of defeating a Russian 3 fronted attack. I still believe the ukrainians could do really well in this conflict and hopefully elongate it so much that the Russians end up feeling a lot of morale drop quickly
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Feb 23, 2022 20:09
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Al-Saqr posted:yeah honestly I don’t think the ukranians genuinely have it in them to successfully wage a long term insurgency because not only do they not have a political ideology strong enough to sustain the sacrifices the way Islamists or tribal folk tend to have it’s also, let’s be real, going to be suicidal to go up against an army that has genuine experience and success in putting down popular uprisings to keep minoritarian genocidal dictators in power. I don't think Putin will try, or could, get away with gassing Ukrainians. It works in Syria because racism. But Putin, ironically, views Ukrainians as Russian, there'd likely be outrage both home and abroad if he tried that.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:10
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Yeah I think for the most part the Russians will need a ton of Ukrainian collaboration to make this whole project happen. There's no way they're going to be able to occupy the country without a huge amount of support able to police the streets effectively. Russia would benefit more by stuffing the faces of the Ukrainian elite with a new power structure that benefits them politically instead of just economically. Any occupation of a 3 million person City like Kyiv is not going to happen if people are being gassed. Like someone said about a dozen or so pages ago any kind of terror bombing will strengthen the resolve of the people And I'm pretty sure you crane being a former SSR probably has a shitload of gas masks. In serious case Russia and Assad didn't need popular will to finish the fight, they just needed to kill enough people to break the civilian populations will to fight.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:12
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Maybe people just assume history is always cyclical: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiev_Offensive Just 102 years later and the fate of Kyiv is once again on the line because of Russia. But uh.... a few things have changed since then.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:12
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Lots of people on social media are speculating that they might have had plans to attack earlier (like on the 16th) and everyone constantly releasing intel made them postpone it. But looking at how much it took to even get to this point(Donbas doing all the false flag attacks, Donnas independence, Putin/Duma with their theatrics, evacuating embassies, moving shitton of troops int Donbas, etc.) it seems like they were never in a position to attack until now. It's more like all the leaked intel about earlier attacks was just Russian misinformation.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:13
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Something I'm kind of worried about is if Russia starts moving west in Ukraine and has air superiority over the country then they might start targeting weapons shipments from the west. If a Russian mig shoots down an American or EU transport plane full of weapons that's going to be a really big escalation.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:13
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Charliegrs posted:Something I'm kind of worried about is if Russia starts moving west in Ukraine and has air superiority over the country then they might start targeting weapons shipments from the west. If a Russian mig shoots down an American or EU transport plane full of weapons that's going to be a really big escalation. Why shoot down your fancy new weapons? I mean what a slap in the face it was for the Americans to see the Taliban liberating gigantic caches of weapons. The same can be done for the russians, if they start liberating giant cashes of stingers etc. Also most of the weapons can be sold on the secondary market which will definitely help with the sanctions.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:15
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ZombieLenin posted:I think you and I are on the same page there; however, while I think Boris Johnson is an idiot, I only take his response to mean that if the Russian Federation tries to initiate some sort of cyber war, the West (or at least the UK) is no longer just going to sit there and take it, but respond in kind. Yeah we are in agreement, and as far as I am aware thay tit-for-tat response is generally considered acceptable escalation, meaning that it isn't as likely to provoke even worse attacks as long as the retaliation was proportionate. If Russia ransomwares a bunch of control centers for noncritical infrastructure, the proportionate response would be similar, not the US/UK taking down the whole Russian power grid or start making SCADA units explode.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:15
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https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1496560453916495882 so invasion TODAY or TOMORROW according to US
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Feb 23, 2022 20:15
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Thought I'd go on wiki and see how badly Ukraine are going to get rolled (thinking they haven't got much of an army for some reason). They've errr....got a lot of stuff to play with.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:20
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Grouchio posted:It's the clancy question I see a bunch of paranoids ponder: Reality is that Polish armies getting blown up by Russians in Ukraine would be Poland’s personal problem, since there’s no NATO article to invoke when you poo poo your pants during an attack. On the flip side, if a single vaguely Russian guy pees over Polish border line, American Congress will be allowed to start spending trillions on all their lobbyists’ favourite projects, and French army is going to be there in like 2 weeks to relive the good old Bonnie days. Poland marching into Ukraine is, frankly, an insane fantasy. The Clanciest I would go there is, in the event of devastating full annexation war, Polish GROM evacuating surviving Ukrainian dignitaries from Lviv.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:20
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GABA ghoul posted:Lots of people on social media are speculating that they might have had plans to attack earlier (like on the 16th) and everyone constantly releasing intel made them postpone it. But looking at how much it took to even get to this point(Donbas doing all the false flag attacks, Donnas independence, Putin/Duma with their theatrics, evacuating embassies, moving shitton of troops int Donbas, etc.) it seems like they were never in a position to attack until now. It's more like all the leaked intel about earlier attacks was just Russian misinformation. On the assumption that their course of action is a widespread kinetic offensive, then getting the 6000 AFVs they've brought forward to the correct crossing points and in correct array has probably taken divisional planners longer than they anticipated. That said, the Russians clearly expected at least one of their false flags to stick or the Ukrainian military to shoot back or react drastically by now. Since neither of these happened, they've just been doing more traffic control in the meantime, but by this point they've got 80 to 90% of all present BTGs within 15 km of the border in battle array, and have or are in the process of pulling out their diplomatic staff. The string's run out.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:22
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1496560453916495882 Maybe. These warning always have a maybe attached. Nobody know for sure except the Russians.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:22
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GABA ghoul posted:Lots of people on social media are speculating that they might have had plans to attack earlier (like on the 16th) and everyone constantly releasing intel made them postpone it.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:23
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Tai posted:Thought I'd go on wiki and see how badly Ukraine are going to get rolled (thinking they haven't got much of an army for some reason). They've errr....got a lot of stuff to play with. They will likely just be non-operation within 48 hours of an invasion due to overwhelming air support for the Russians. GABA ghoul posted:Lots of people on social media are speculating that they might have had plans to attack earlier (like on the 16th) and everyone constantly releasing intel made them postpone it. But looking at how much it took to even get to this point(Donbas doing all the false flag attacks, Donnas independence, Putin/Duma with their theatrics, evacuating embassies, moving shitton of troops int Donbas, etc.) it seems like they were never in a position to attack until now. It's more like all the leaked intel about earlier attacks was just Russian misinformation. US said Russian forces would be ready on the 16th, media took this to mean they were invading on the 16th.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Here’s something for the recent conversation on what would Trump do I'm pretty much going to respond with this every time some US Republican yells that Biden is weak on Ukraine: 
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Feb 23, 2022 20:25
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FishBulbia posted:They will likely just be non-operation within 48 hours of an invasion due to overwhelming air support for the Russians. Maybe, Ukraine DOES have anti-air capabilities, they largely haven't used it to avoid giving the Russians casus belli. If Russia starts entering Ukraine airspace and conducting hostilities, they will likely go hot. Granted, most of them are out of date. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 20:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Reality is that Polish armies getting blown up by Russians in Ukraine would be Poland’s personal problem, since there’s no NATO article to invoke when you poo poo your pants during an attack. On the flip side, if a single vaguely Russian guy pees over Polish border line, American Congress will be allowed to start spending trillions on all their lobbyists’ favourite projects, and French army is going to be there in like 2 weeks to relive the good old Bonnie days.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:26
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A Buttery Pastry posted:What are your Clanciest thought on Hungary "liberating" the Hungarian minority of Ukraine? We’ll see some Dickford county judge cite a 1784 US law to kick Hungary out of NATO.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:27
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A Buttery Pastry posted:What are your Clanciest thought on Hungary "liberating" the Hungarian minority of Ukraine? Turkey style buffer zone?
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Feb 23, 2022 20:28
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Yeah I think for the most part the Russians will need a ton of Ukrainian collaboration to make this whole project happen. There's no way they're going to be able to occupy the country without a huge amount of support able to police the streets effectively. Once videos start coming out of Ukrainian citizens being murdered by Russia’s decrepit war machine, popular opinion in the west will shift from sanctions to intervention. It’s too bad we need to see death to be reminded it takes force to stop fascism. 26% of Americans right now say we should be involved. That will be 60%+ if you see leveled cities, dismembered bodies, and crying children. Putin has complete responsibility for this situation. It’s really unfortunate that the west really has to always be the adults at the table.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:32
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FishBulbia posted:They will likely just be non-operation within 48 hours of an invasion due to overwhelming air support for the Russians. I think this is what to watch. Everyone's nervous about the troops and tanks, but it'll absolutely start with massive airstrikes, right?
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Feb 23, 2022 20:33
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Gatts posted:What if the US went “Pssst, China, if they invade Ukraine while we fight them there, you swoop in from the back and take over the rest of the country.” That's exactly as likely as the guy who said America should invade Siberia from Alaska.
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Feb 23, 2022 20:33
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