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Dapper_Swindler posted:so what are the chances of this being a bloody occupation and turning into another Afghanistan for Russia where everyone pumps weapons into the various resistance groups. 50/50? That's really hard to say because we don't know what approach Russia is going to take to major cities. If they straight up flatten major urban centers using artillery, Russia's gonna have a hard time paying its bills because everyone is going to cut them off militarily and economically. We're really on untrodden ground here. Ukraine isn't like Afghanistan where armed groups can stay "organized" in unreachable parts of the country. There aren't mountain ranges in eastern Ukraine and it's very open land, the only places you can have an organized resistance group that Russia won't be able to readily find will be in cities. The whole thing sucks. Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 23:33
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It is utterly surreal that a major war is about to kick off in Europe. The global political arena is about to see a massive shift again. At least as big as the one caused by 9/11.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:35
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The mobile crematoriums will be good for hiding the bodies of Ukrainian civilians too. Plus they give you a one-step method for disappearance of Ukrainian politicians, resistance and so on.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:35
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projecthalaxy posted:I feel like im dissociating lol I can't even begin to imagine how awful that must be. I hope you and those near and dear to you stay safe, and that there is as little bloodshed as possible from whatever happens. I wish I had been correct in my initial assessment that Putin wouldn't take things as far as he has.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:37
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Dapper_Swindler posted:so what are the chances of this being a bloody occupation and turning into another Afghanistan for Russia where everyone pumps weapons into the various resistance groups. because i feel like that will be worse for the russians then anything. most of their recent wars were them taking relatively russia friendly territories against smaller countries with shorter notice or being merc/military support for assad. its more likely that ukraine would be forced to capitulate out of humanitarian reasons before it turns into another afghanistan. the thing about afghanistan was that it was similar to vietnam for america, where the larger state was backing up a local puppet regime against a populist insurgency (except there was no north afghanistan in this scenario, but it's vaguely similar enough). ukrainian irregular resistance fighters aren't going to be as important as the actual ukrainian military, which is going to still exist in whatever slice of ukraine they are able to hold on to. so, there is no reason to arm a people's ukraine militia, when you can just continue arming the actual armed forces of ukraine it is very doubtful russia will be able to sweep the entire country, though a quick drive to sieze the capital in kyiv may be possible, and the outcome of this whole thing is most likely just russia slicing off portions of ukraine rather than trying to keep the whole country as a new province
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Feb 23, 2022 23:41
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Dapper_Swindler posted:so what are the chances of this being a bloody occupation and turning into another Afghanistan for Russia where everyone pumps weapons into the various resistance groups. because i feel like that will be worse for the russians then anything. most of their recent wars were them taking relatively russia friendly territories against smaller countries with shorter notice or being merc/military support for assad. Very low if Russia sticks to Eastern Ukraine. Even with support from the West fact is a) Ukrainian geography simply doesn't lend itself to allowing militia groups to operate on a level that'd challenge an occupation force, and b) Russia is brutally effective at crushing such groups. The greatest insurgency threat to a Russian occupation would be terrorism, and that just means more dead civilians. Ukrainians killing Ukrainians, in fact.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:42
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1496612163506479105  Looks like its diverted to Kyiv. Its changed direction and begun a descent.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:43
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CommieGIR posted:I've added !!READ OP WARNING!! to the title. hopefully that'll get people's attention Thanks, that's great. DTurtle posted:It is utterly surreal that a major war is about to kick off in Europe. The global political arena is about to see a massive shift again. At least as big as the one caused by 9/11. Yeah it doesn't feel real right now, I'm sure I'll be chocked into reality soon.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:43
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Thanks for the kind words everyone. It's just not something I was expecting. They tell you in history school these kinds of wars are over, you know? The world order doesn't let them happen.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:44
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Ukraine is a steppe (except a small western portion). There are no mountains, no jungles to wage irregular warfare. The whole country is easily navigable with developed infrastructure. The cities can be bypassed and isolated.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:44
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steinrokkan posted:Ukraine is a steppe (except a small western portion). There are no mountains, no jungles to wage irregular warfare. The whole country is easily navigable with developed infrastructure. The cities can be bypassed and isolated. Iraq.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:47
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Fuligin posted:*clumsily fumbling across chart coveres desk fir my telephone&* 'FORGET the raytheon! Were all in on rhein rhein rhein! "Wait, where does Rheinmetall get energy?" "..." "GAZPROM ROSATOM BUY BUY BUY!!"
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Feb 23, 2022 23:48
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https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1496618205804126209
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Feb 23, 2022 23:50
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Majorian posted:I wish I had been correct in my initial assessment that Putin wouldn't take things as far as he has. Has it made you rethink some of your assumptions about what people like Putin are capable of doing?
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Feb 23, 2022 23:50
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marxismftw posted:Iraq. Maybe, but other than idiotic poo poo like "shock and awe," America and its Allies restrained themselves from full-on artillery strikes against populated areas where civilians deaths were the point. And as stated in previous pages, the sectarian and tribal affiliations of Iraq really don't translate to Ukraine, especially when Russia already controls the areas with large amounts of ethnic Russians.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:51
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https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/st...n-border-troops Escalating very rapidly 
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Feb 23, 2022 23:51
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https://mobile.twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1496611298574061578 NOTAM over Dnipro now as well. https://mobile.twitter.com/rafalduk/status/1496611297366052869 Border wall camera posts in Crimea going out one by one.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:51
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Wasnt the big problem in Iraq that the US/UK/whoever soldiers had to go basically door to door to find out who was a soldier and who wasnt? That's why Fallujah and Bagdad took so long? Because I've got a bad feeling Putin won't bother
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Feb 23, 2022 23:56
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I can see tonight still being all about scare tactics. There hasn't been a big enough false flag to justify a full invasion yet. Then again, I'm not sure Putin even cares about appearances anymore.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:56
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r/russia has banned political and military posts.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:56
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BoldFace posted:I can see tonight still being all about scare tactics. There hasn't been a big enough false flag to justify a full invasion yet. Then again, I'm not sure Putin even cares about appearances anymore. There's a lot of effort to hide something regardless. I don't think Putin NEEDS the false flag anymore, and also might think he won't get it.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:57
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projecthalaxy posted:Wasnt the big problem in Iraq that the US/UK/whoever soldiers had to go basically door to door to find out who was a soldier and who wasnt? That's why Fallujah and Bagdad took so long? Determined resistance in urban areas or otherwise defensible terrain can be difficult to uproot even if you have overwhelming fire superiority and the will to use it, as the Russians have personally experienced multiple times.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:58
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projecthalaxy posted:Wasnt the big problem in Iraq that the US/UK/whoever soldiers had to go basically door to door to find out who was a soldier and who wasnt? That's why Fallujah and Bagdad took so long? This is how they do it. It's not a comfortable read, but if you can't look away: Conspiratiorist posted:For context, the Russian approach to successful city fighting is very straightforward:
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Feb 23, 2022 23:58
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Zelensky just gave an address in Russian. Waiting for a translation. https://youtu.be/TiXdsekwAN4
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Feb 23, 2022 23:58
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Yeah its much more likely, if they hit a resistant city, they'll just cut it off and go around it.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:59
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projecthalaxy posted:Wasnt the big problem in Iraq that the US/UK/whoever soldiers had to go basically door to door to find out who was a soldier and who wasnt? That's why Fallujah and Bagdad took so long? Gonna be a real eye-opener to some people to see what "imperialism" looks when it's not done by the modern Western powers. CommieGIR posted:Yeah its much more likely, if they hit a resistant city, they'll just cut it off and go around it. Can't exactly do that, because those cities are large repositories of supplies and manpower. Just circumventing them is asking for your supply lines to get cut by urban guerrillas.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:59
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CommieGIR posted:There's a lot of effort to hide something regardless. Yeah the West has already pulled the trigger on sanctions. It's not the last shot of major sanctions, but everyone is calling it an invasion already, there's no face left to save.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:59
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Pook Good Mook posted:Maybe, but other than idiotic poo poo like "shock and awe," America and its Allies restrained themselves from full-on artillery strikes against populated areas where civilians deaths were the point. The USA absolutely had to engage in a brutal street fighting and house to house warfare repeatedly over the course of the occupation until the body count, lack of success, and no clear path to peace eventually forced withdrawal. The lack of tribal and ethic divisions strengthen the Ukrainian resistances hand rather than weakening it, because of a shared nationalistic identify and lack of cause for sporadic and violent infighting.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:00
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Fame Douglas posted:This is some great reframing. Russia will start a physical assault on Ukraine as soon as Feb. 16, multiple U.S. officials confirmed to POLITICO, and Washington communicated to allies that it could be preceded by a barrage of missile strikes and cyberattacks. One person said the leaders’ call indicated that cyberattacks are “imminent” and another said the intelligence is “specific and alarming.” Sullivan mentioned that any attack on Ukraine could begin with “aerial bombing and missile attacks.” British tabloids then took it and came up with "Kremlin chiefs will order an attack on Ukraine at 3am local time today, American intelligence agencies believe." FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 00:01
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FishBulbia posted:Russia will start a physical assault on Ukraine as soon as Feb. 16, multiple U.S. officials confirmed to POLITICO, and Washington communicated to allies that it could be preceded by a barrage of missile strikes and cyberattacks. One person said the leaders’ call indicated that cyberattacks are “imminent” and another said the intelligence is “specific and alarming.” Sullivan mentioned that any attack on Ukraine could begin with “aerial bombing and missile attacks.” A lot has also happened since the 16th that makes it more likely though, including all the pomp and press yesterday and Russia openly saying its moving military into Donbas. So its not getting better.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:02
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It weakens them because there are no armed groups left if the central government falls, when in Iraq you had plenty, be it religious, regional, tribal, ethnic, baathist, or a mix of them. And they had outside backing and were already organized.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:02
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Orthanc6 posted:Yeah the West has already pulled the trigger on sanctions. It's not the last shot of major sanctions, but everyone is calling it an invasion already, there's no face left to save. None of that matters. He needs the false flags and staged incidents to build the narrative around his persona. This line of events have clearly shown Putin doesn't give a single gently caress about the west, and it's always been about his persona and legacy.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:03
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projecthalaxy posted:Wasnt the big problem in Iraq that the US/UK/whoever soldiers had to go basically door to door to find out who was a soldier and who wasnt? That's why Fallujah and Bagdad took so long? Yeah, the "sweep past population centers, isolate them, and deal with them at your leisure" approach is basically the Mongol school of steppe warfare. The second step historically was to then gain the compliance of local populations (i.e. usually their money), either by co-opting existing power structures or various degrees of incredible violence.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:03
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CommieGIR posted:I don't think Putin NEEDS the false flag anymore, and also might think he won't get it. At this point Internationally everyone who's going to seems to of been pretty clear they know exactly what's going on, and in Russia by all accounts the state media is just going to say what ever, so who would it be for any more? Whatever happens it's going to be seen for exactly the sort of unprovoked invasion that it is.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:03
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CommieGIR posted:A lot has also happened since the 16th that makes it more likely though, including all the pomp and press yesterday and Russia openly saying its moving military into Donbas. So its not getting better. I agree. But I don't think its likely that saying that dissuaded Putin from invading, I think he wasn't ready yet. This looks like it was always the plan.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:04
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah its much more likely, if they hit a resistant city, they'll just cut it off and go around it. this isn't as feasible as you'd think - supply lines are road bound, and cities/towns/villages tend to exist at road junctions vital to being able to move things back and forth between the front line and friendly territory. you can bypass stubborn points of resistance on a temporary basis but eventually you're going to have to take and hold urban areas, leaving you highly vulnerable to ambush if the local population feels like resisting. this is especially true for the major roadways which can stand up to heavy military traffic, you don't want to be running supply trucks down side roads and through suburbs Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 00:05
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BoldFace posted:Zelensky just gave an address in Russian. Waiting for a translation.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:05
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https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496622094066634754
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Feb 24, 2022 00:07
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Orthanc6 posted:I highly doubt they would do that, but of all the ways NATO forces could end up in Ukraine this is the only one I could see happening. It would be extremely risky and NATO would have to tell Russia right now they intended to do this, and make some gesture proving that it is indeed only for evacuations and not military support. Something tells me we shouldn’t be using noted comedian George Wallace as an example of unreasonableness and whatnot. https://twitter.com/mrgeorgewallace/status/1496605525844258817?s=21
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Feb 24, 2022 00:07
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Omon Ra posted:It's Ukrainian, not Russian. Subtle but relevant difference. I don't speak either language, but multiple sources have emphasized that it indeed was in Russian. https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1496620913491595265 https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1496621836221784064
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Feb 24, 2022 00:07
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