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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:this isn't as feasible as you'd think - supply lines are road bound, and cities/towns/villages tend to exist at road junctions vital to being able to move things back and forth between the front line and friendly territory. you can bypass stubborn points of resistance on a temporary basis but eventually you're going to have to take and hold urban areas, leaving you highly vulnerable to ambush if the local population feels like resisting. this is especially true for the major roadways which can stand up to heavy military traffic, you don't want to be running supply trucks down side roads Russia is more than capable of supplying by air if they wanted to or moving around the cities. They are not so much crossroads as they used to be. But regardless if he actually tries to attack the cities, it will look bad for him.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:07
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Omon Ra posted:It's Ukrainian, not Russian. Subtle but relevant difference. He also gave one in Russian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0taNEANOSPw
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Feb 24, 2022 00:08
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CommieGIR posted:Russia is more than capable of supplying by air if they wanted to or moving around the cities. I really don't know where you've gotten this idea but it's absolutely not true.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:12
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BoldFace posted:Zelensky just gave an address in Russian. Waiting for a translation. It’s in Ukrainian.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:13
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https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1496622529263415303
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Feb 24, 2022 00:13
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steinrokkan posted:It weakens them because there are no armed groups left if the central government falls, when in Iraq you had plenty, be it religious, regional, tribal, ethnic, baathist, or a mix of them. And they had outside backing and were already organized. How many of those Iraqi armed groups existed under Saddam? In fact a lot of the Sunni ones essentially were the central government broken off into armed chunks. That and the Kurds, but the Kurds weren't a problem at all (quite the opposite) for the American coalition so that doesn't really count either. And uh, outside backing, not sure why people keep insisting this won't be a thing. In fact it seems really obvious that NATO and friends will go for that kind of thing.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:13
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CommieGIR posted:Russia is more than capable of supplying by air if they wanted to or moving around the cities. we're talking about distances measured in dozens of miles here, not long range strategic movements where cargo lifts at airports will be relevant. any air supply will be via helicopter, which is dicey against an opponent well stocked with shoulder fired anti-air, and helicopters have a fairly limited ability to move cargo compared to boring old fleets of trucks if russia plans on pushing deep into ukraine, or pushing and staying for weeks or more, then there is no option but to get invested in urban fighting and occupation. even the united states would struggle to keep an armored offensive supplied by air alone, it simply isn't feasible
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Feb 24, 2022 00:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It’s in Ukrainian. https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496620637019852812?t=ZNFFnTvB8vwySQwzdM0IvA&s=19 Apparently at least some was in Russian.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:15
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Quorum posted:Yeah, the "sweep past population centers, isolate them, and deal with them at your leisure" approach is basically the Mongol school of steppe warfare. The second step historically was to then gain the compliance of local populations (i.e. usually their money), either by co-opting existing power structures or various degrees of incredible violence. This was a longer term strategy in the Generalplan Ost genocide the Nazis were cooking up as well. They couldn't really death camp the Slavs, so they were thinking of isolating the cities and starving them to death. I think they even tested this in a few cases (which I'm further sure were in Ukraine!).
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Feb 24, 2022 00:15
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Generation Internet posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496620637019852812?t=ZNFFnTvB8vwySQwzdM0IvA&s=19 As noted above, just 2 addresses to the same backdrop.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:18
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gotta say I like the framing - not much blustery poo poo, just "does this really have to happen, guys?" won't do anything, of course
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Feb 24, 2022 00:21
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Grape posted:How many of those Iraqi armed groups existed under Saddam? In fact a lot of the Sunni ones essentially were the central government broken off into armed chunks. Also, there are already armed groups in Ukraine--granted, some of them are neo-nazis, but they're there.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:23
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Reading about the coming invasion is like watching seawater get sucked into the ocean right before a tsunami. Except instead of an Act of God it's one ( 1 ) dude who is chosing death for thousands of people because... Russian Empire 2.0?
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Feb 24, 2022 00:27
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Generation Internet posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496620637019852812?t=ZNFFnTvB8vwySQwzdM0IvA&s=19 Will any Russian citizens actually see this?
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Feb 24, 2022 00:29
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Twincityhacker posted:Reading about the coming invasion is like watching seawater get sucked into the ocean right before a tsunami. Except instead of an Act of God it's one ( 1 ) dude who is chosing death for thousands of people because... Russian Empire 2.0? Because he's loving "scared' of Bundeswehr troops with painted broom handles for weapons.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:29
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Pook Good Mook posted:50/50? That's really hard to say because we don't know what approach Russia is going to take to major cities. If they straight up flatten major urban centers using artillery, Russia's gonna have a hard time paying its bills because everyone is going to cut them off militarily and economically. i mean its russia, they care less about civilian casualties then the US does and thats saying something, they are gonna loving flatten cities and way way worse like they did in Chechnya but this time its gonna be live on twitter. BoldFace posted:I don't speak either language, but multiple sources have emphasized that it indeed was in Russian. its nuts that this dude used to be ukranian stephen colbert and now he is leading his country through the bleakest poo poo imaginable. God's speed zelensky, your a braver man then i ever will be.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:31
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Charliegrs posted:Will any Russian citizens actually see this? I was thinking the same, there's no way this is going to get any attention in Russia right? No media there would dare humanize Ukrainians right before the push. I hope for the best but this is starting to look really bad.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:31
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Charliegrs posted:Will any Russian citizens actually see this? The ones with money will.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:33
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theghostpt posted:I was thinking the same, there's no way this is going to get any attention in Russia right? The Internet exists in Russia
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Feb 24, 2022 00:33
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1496622412938493953
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Feb 24, 2022 00:33
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https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1496585861110059009 i mean this shits just ghastly right there. even if its just to burn their own dead.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:33
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TipTow posted:The Internet exists in Russia If this message is contained strictly into the internet then for sure it won't reach enough people to change anything. Not that it would even if it did, but still  Grim loving days ahead
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Feb 24, 2022 00:36
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theghostpt posted:If this message is contained strictly into the internet then for sure it won't reach enough people to change anything. Not mentioned at the moment on any main Russian news sources. His address is on the front page of RAIN right now (https://tvrain.ru/) which is the only real opposition news and that has extremely limited reach. So yeah no one will see this unless it goes viral on VK or something. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 00:41 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 00:38
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Also, there are already armed groups in Ukraine--granted, some of them are neo-nazis, but they're there. The government of Ukraine has literally been training civilians to fight a asymmetric war against Russia for over a year. The program is actually older and was initially a kind of public/private arrangement with private Ukrainian paramilitary groups, which is also still going on. What I would tell you is: 1. Never underestimate nationalism as a motivator to resist; 2. Ukraine has the 22nd best military in the world now and has come a long way since 2014; 3. See the above linked article, Ukraine’s military has been training volunteers to fight a guerrilla war for over a year—that’s a drat sight more training than most of the Iraqis who fought the United States in the early 2000s got; and finally 4. From what I understand, intelligence chatter seems to indicate that the Russian armed forces are very concerned about Ukraine’s capacity to wage an asymmetric war behind Russian lines.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:40
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Have there been any Russians crazy enough to publicly make statements against the war?
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Feb 24, 2022 00:41
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Charliegrs posted:Will any Russian citizens actually see this? Sure, but not a sufficient quantity of those whose minds this would have to change. And that's before we discuss whether if this may change their minds.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:42
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Twincityhacker posted:Reading about the coming invasion is like watching seawater get sucked into the ocean right before a tsunami. Except instead of an Act of God it's one ( 1 ) dude who is chosing death for thousands of people because... Russian Empire 2.0? He's a narcissistic autocrat who's one of the richest and most powerful people in the world and his entire government is built on yes-men. He wants to do it so he's doing it.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:43
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What was that bit about economic programs and gas prices in the Ukrainian speech? Seems like a strange thing to be talking about right now.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:44
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BoldFace posted:Have there been any Russians crazy enough to publicly make statements against the war? Saw news reports that there were a few guys protesting outside the Kremlin before getting taken away. Sure they were dropped off home and are fine.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:44
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1496585861110059009 yeah here's hoping the people these are for are dead
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Feb 24, 2022 00:44
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BoldFace posted:Have there been any Russians crazy enough to publicly make statements against the war? There was some guy with a 'No war with Ukraine" sign outside the kremlin who got insta arrested
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Feb 24, 2022 00:44
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TipTow posted:The Internet exists in Russia
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Feb 24, 2022 00:45
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https://mobile.twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1496630757107900421 Rumor that Kharkiv Intl runaway is being blocked to stop potential VDV Airborne seizure.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:45
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Omon Ra posted:Doesn't matter that it exists, the average Russian will never look at the other side's viewpoint. They are fully content to either consume state propaganda or just remain completely ignorant altogether. To be fair that is by no means unique to Russia.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:46
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https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1496587860920647680quote:Leaders of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine have asked Putin for help in repelling aggression from Ukrainian army -Ifax cites Kremlin spokesperson Aggression that doesn't exist: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1496534844960129026 quote:New: Spoke to a senior European intelligence official just now. The official says so far Russia’s attempts to draw Ukrainian retaliation have failed, “local warlords in Donbas are increasingly frustrated that Ukrainian troops are disciplined and not falling for provocations.” They're trying really hard to force Ukraine to respond, giving the Russians the perfect excuse to swoop in and "help".
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Feb 24, 2022 00:47
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Conspiratiorist posted:Rumor that Kharkiv Intl runaway is being blocked to stop potential VDV Airborne seizure. https://mobile.twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1496627649048981505 poo poo this is why. https://i.imgur.com/OYf7Lzc.mp4 These motherfuckers.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:48
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1496627649048981505 Apparently they just turned off their transponders.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:50
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ZombieLenin posted:The government of Ukraine has literally been training civilians to fight a asymmetric war against Russia for over a year. also from my lovely read, alot of the Russians military is basicaly either zoomer conscripts or mercs. so your basicaly sending in zoomer canon fodder and paid psychos and various spec ops vs well trained and very motivated army and a population that may very well fight on because they have seen what happens under russian occupation. plus the various militia groups, lovely or other wise. projecthalaxy posted:yeah here's hoping the people these are for are dead i mean i am hoping its just for their dead.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:50
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Dapper_Swindler posted:also from my lovely read, alot of the Russians military is basicaly either zoomer conscripts or mercs. so your basicaly sending in zoomer canon fodder and paid psychos and various spec ops vs well trained and very motivated army and a population that may very well fight on because they have seen what happens under russian occupation. plus the various militia groups, lovely or other wise. No, the vanguard of this operation are Russian contract troops, as in "under contract for a duration of service". They're professional trained soldiers.
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Feb 24, 2022 00:53
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Are you saying that vast swathes of Eastern Europe should've stayed occupied by Russia after the USSR fell? Nope, why would you say so?
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Feb 24, 2022 00:53
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