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FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

TulliusCicero posted:

Russian reports of Ukranian Anti-air being neutralized seem to be uh...how should I put this...optimistic?

....Did Putin purge all of his good generals like Stalin or something? There's a lot of unforced errors here.

Generally when the adversary is able to helo in troops to one of your capital city airports, your air defense isn't in good shape. That doesn't mean you can't get opportunistic shots in.

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TheRat
Aug 30, 2006


What in the world?

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


Dwesa posted:

seems like a strange goal, it does not produce electricity

Ukrainians are incapable of.... Therefore here's another justification for paternalizing them.

Also putin said Ukraine could get nukes.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Dwesa posted:

seems like a strange goal, it does not produce electricity

It is, however, a junction point for the Ukrainian power grid.

Xerxes17
Feb 17, 2011

TulliusCicero posted:

Yeah...this seems like an odd "show of force" for little gain:

Yeah you took an airport hundreds of kilometers away from your reinforcements on your reportedly weakest front, now you are utterly cut off and surrounded. It's a potentially decent propaganda tool I guess, but those spec ops should just be considered killed or captured at this point. Again, not a lot of gain for substantial losses.

This is what I mean, a lot of Russian maneuvers reported seem very...amateurish so far? They aren't used to fighting a war where they can't just bulldoze.

The airport is about 100km south of the Belarus border, it's not that far actually.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Shes Not Impressed posted:

Thanks for thinking of Ukrainians as just "people" with "jobs". What was the point of this

The point is they are woefully unprepared to fight a war with Russia who's been training and preparing for one the entire time with battle tested troops who've seen action in Syria. So what I'm saying is I'm not sure all these volunteer militias the Ukranians have been raising who are using their own money from a middle class lifestyle will be much use in a serious war as this is turning out to be.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

CommieGIR posted:

It is, however, a junction point for the Ukrainian power grid.

What would that entail them to do? Surely it's not still connected in any meaningful way to the national grid?

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Ukrainian TV just said that south Kherson has fallen. Russian troops have been crossing the bridge by Kherson city.

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.
If I may ask, is the war currently looking like a complete curbstomp of Ukraine by Russia, if there is enough info to make a call like that?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Tesseraction posted:

What would that entail them to do? Surely it's not still connected in any meaningful way to the national grid?

They'll be able to cut off some of the Southeastern parts of the grid, so yeah, they could.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

It is guarded by the ukrainian army though, no? So they probably can't completely ignore it.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

BoldFace posted:

If NATO has to choose between letting Finland burn and starting WW3, they will choose the former 100% the time. Let there be no doubt about that. Finland's advantage is that it is not nearly as important politically, economically, or strategically to Russia as Ukraine is.

What NATO wants is irrelevant in this case, as Finland is part of the EU and the EU is obligated to defend Finland. We'd all be at war anyway if Russia attacks Finland.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
just watching the live cnn footage at the airport, doesn't seem like the russians are all that worried about the ukrainian counter-attack.

projecthalaxy
Dec 27, 2008

Yes hello it is I Kurt's Secret Son


It's also a great place to focus on if you still want to expose hundreds of thousands of people to the slow nightmare of death by radiation, but still have enough sense not to use your nukes!

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

khwarezm posted:

If I may ask, is the war currently looking like a complete curbstomp of Ukraine by Russia, if there is enough info to make a call like that?

I wouldn't say anything about whats happening yet. I think we can say the south was left undefended and the Russians have close to complete control over the airspace. Part of me thinks they'd really think shock and awe would've worked and no one would have fought though, which is definitely not what is happening.

CSM
Jan 29, 2014

56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

BoldFace posted:

If NATO has to choose between letting Finland burn and starting WW3, they will choose the former 100% the time. Let there be no doubt about that. Finland's advantage is that it is not nearly as important politically, economically, or strategically to Russia as Ukraine is.
You're completely negating the existence of the European Union here. A much more likely choice here would be between Canada, US and Turkey letting NATO fall apart if Russia invades Finland or any other EU country, and EU countries letting Russia invade the EU at will.

It's not completely impossible that European countries would not engage. The likelihood of that scenario just seem pretty low, instead of 100% certain as your represent it.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

CommieGIR posted:

They'll be able to cut off some of the Southeastern parts of the grid, so yeah, they could.

That sounds like an oversight, but given I doubt the decommissioning body thought "wait, what if we get invaded by a psychopath who'll use this to power down half the country" it's not one I'm going to harp on about.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Dwesa posted:

it looks like military plane

From a comment in that reddit thread

reddit posted:

Registration number matches Russian Air Force An-26.

https://www.jetphotos.com/registration/RF-36074

Here is video of it taking off in 2021, so real and operated recently until being shot down today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlvxxFq9G8A

Edit: Here are many more photos of the plane in the past few years:

https://russianplanes.net/regs/RF-36074

So yeah looks like its a large Russian air force transport plane. ...that tail was probably needed.
Hopefully that will be making them re-think about where they can try and land them.

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Tesseraction posted:

What would that entail them to do? Surely it's not still connected in any meaningful way to the national grid?

i dont think there is much of military value in the exclusion zone, except it is a route to get from belarus to kiev. the chernobyl zone is directly on the ukraine/belarus border, and sits on the only crossing over the dnieper river for many miles

projecthalaxy posted:

It's also a great place to focus on if you still want to expose hundreds of thousands of people to the slow nightmare of death by radiation, but still have enough sense not to use your nukes!

unless russia deliberately bombs the reactor for some sadistic reason, or fighting somehow gets wildly out of control, the only people at risk of radiation are the soldiers in the zone itself

ranbo das
Oct 16, 2013


khwarezm posted:

If I may ask, is the war currently looking like a complete curbstomp of Ukraine by Russia, if there is enough info to make a call like that?

Ukraine is putting up some resistance, but this was never going to be close. It's just a matter of whether it takes days or weeks for Ukraine to fold.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

projecthalaxy posted:

It's also a great place to focus on if you still want to expose hundreds of thousands of people to the slow nightmare of death by radiation, but still have enough sense not to use your nukes!

Eh. Chernobyl is not that radioactive outside Reactor 4 itself. Its slightly higher than background in some places, but not really that bad anymore. Its largely overblown unless you are staring down the Elephant's foot itself

Tesseraction posted:

That sounds like an oversight, but given I doubt the decommissioning body thought "wait, what if we get invaded by a psychopath who'll use this to power down half the country" it's not one I'm going to harp on about.

There are Ukrainian units there, which is likely why Russia is attacking there.

pippy
May 29, 2013

CRIMES

Props to the the guy that managed to quickly find footage of the troops invading and throw it up as she was talking.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Russians could do nothing to prepare for Ukraine's secret weapon



https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1496865748635037704

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

CommieGIR posted:

Eh. Chernobyl is not that radioactive outside Reactor 4 itself. Its slightly higher than background in some places, but not really that bad anymore. Its largely overblown unless you are staring down the Elephant's foot itself

Hell, it's a tourist destination

projecthalaxy
Dec 27, 2008

Yes hello it is I Kurt's Secret Son


FishBulbia posted:

Russians could do nothing to prepare for Ukraine's secret weapon



https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1496865748635037704

hell yeah I've missed that sound. So lilting and musical. The US may think they're leaders in Karen technology but they've got nothing on eastern Europe

Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?

Kraftwerk posted:

The point is they are woefully unprepared to fight a war with Russia who's been training and preparing for one the entire time with battle tested troops who've seen action in Syria.

What is this? Reports put total Russian forces in Syria in the high 4 digits, with fewer than 70,000 soldiers cycling through the country in total over the last 7 years. There are close to 200,000 Russians involved in the invasion, and I think pretending more than (charitably) a tenth of them have ever fired a weapon in anger is pretty comical.

khwarezm posted:

If I may ask, is the war currently looking like a complete curbstomp of Ukraine by Russia, if there is enough info to make a call like that?

There is next to no information publicly available that would allow you to make that call.

Stanley Pain
Jun 16, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

CommieGIR posted:

Eh. Chernobyl is not that radioactive outside Reactor 4 itself. Its slightly higher than background in some places, but not really that bad anymore. Its largely overblown unless you are staring down the Elephant's foot itself

That's not entirely correct.

While the background radiation has subsided a lot, imagine if a stray missile were to hit the reactor. The amount of radioactive dust and particles released would be catastrophic.

projecthalaxy
Dec 27, 2008

Yes hello it is I Kurt's Secret Son


CommieGIR posted:

Eh. Chernobyl is not that radioactive outside Reactor 4 itself. Its slightly higher than background in some places, but not really that bad anymore. Its largely overblown unless you are staring down the Elephant's foot itself

There are Ukrainian units there, which is likely why Russia is attacking there.

I thought some of it was still pretty hot? IDK my main memory of it was one of the guys who went to my church was a trucker who got impressed into cleanup duty, they didn't give him a suit because who cares about Genady from the village and his head still set off geigers in 2001

Stanley Pain posted:

That's not entirely correct.

While the background radiation has subsided a lot, imagine if a stray missile were to hit the reactor. The amount of radioactive dust and particles released would be catastrophic.

"""stray"""

vuk83
Oct 9, 2012

ZombieLenin posted:

I wouldn’t say that. While small , the Royal Danish Army was pretty heavily engaged in Afghanistan and handled themselves incredibly well.

The Danish army as of now has no air defence, except some old stingers.
The Danish army did fine in operation bomb useless dirt, doesn't necessarily translate into ability to contend a peer war.

vuk83 fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Feb 24, 2022

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Kraftwerk posted:

The point is they are woefully unprepared to fight a war with Russia who's been training and preparing for one the entire time with battle tested troops who've seen action in Syria. So what I'm saying is I'm not sure all these volunteer militias the Ukranians have been raising who are using their own money from a middle class lifestyle will be much use in a serious war as this is turning out to be.

Territorial defence forces are national guard-style, and supposedly deployed primarily as a crowd control measure against saboteurs in urban context, from what we’ve heard of what they’re going to do so far. Ukrainian military are not psychos, to send civilians with basic training against the 1st Tank Army.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Dwesa posted:

seems like a strange goal, it does not produce electricity

If you want to sow fear its a goal.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Stanley Pain posted:

That's not entirely correct.

While the background radiation has subsided a lot, imagine if a stray missile were to hit the reactor. The amount of radioactive dust and particles released would be catastrophic.

Yes, but still mostly to the immediate area. Its not going to carry like it did after the explosion.

There's also been a lot of management of the dust inside the reactors as part of the cleanup.

projecthalaxy posted:

I thought some of it was still pretty hot? IDK my main memory of it was one of the guys who went to my church was a trucker who got impressed into cleanup duty, they didn't give him a suit because who cares about Genady from the village and his head still set off geigers in 2001

its really not. The biggest issue in Pripyat/Chernobyl is the dust and the absorbed radioisotopes in plants/animals that make farming and other things difficult. However, its not uninhabitable and its nowhere near as hot as it was after '86.

The highest risk is the Hospital basement and Reactor 4 itself.

CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Feb 24, 2022

Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Mooseontheloose posted:

If you want to sow fear its a goal.
wind is blowing towards Belarus/Russia though

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




FishBulbia posted:

Russians could do nothing to prepare for Ukraine's secret weapon



https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1496865748635037704

Our women :patriot:

Fruits of the sea
Dec 1, 2010

An attack on Finland would pull in Sweden which actually has a half-decent air force last I checked. Not that Sweden and Finland have a great history, but they have common interests in this case. Which would be a right pain in the rear end for Russia because shipping access to the Baltic sea would become difficult. Plus nobody wants a repeat of the winter war.

Edit: sorry, this was a reply to posts two pages back. For more irrelevant information, NO Norway and Denmark would not help much except for making shipping through the Baltic sea even more of a pain in the rear end. Which is pretty decent deterrent to be honest. Estonia would probably get in on it as well, maybe Latvia and Lithuania

None of this will happen

Fruits of the sea fucked around with this message at 16:29 on Feb 24, 2022

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Kraftwerk posted:

The point is they are woefully unprepared to fight a war with Russia who's been training and preparing for one the entire time with battle tested troops who've seen action in Syria. So what I'm saying is I'm not sure all these volunteer militias the Ukranians have been raising who are using their own money from a middle class lifestyle will be much use in a serious war as this is turning out to be.

your information is vaguely correct circa 2014-15 but the situation in the Ukranian military has changed quite a bit

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Baronash posted:

What is this? Reports put total Russian forces in Syria in the high 4 digits, with fewer than 70,000 soldiers cycling through the country in total over the last 7 years. There are close to 200,000 Russians involved in the invasion, and I think pretending more than (charitably) a tenth of them have ever fired a weapon in anger is pretty comical.


Yeah what Russia got out of Syria was basically using it as an Advanced Staff College for promising officers. If you look at the commanders of Russian forces in Syria they all rotate back to plumb postings quite high in the Military Districts.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


ZombieLenin posted:

It’s ironic really. Until last month many people in the West had the feeling that NATO was getting kind of pointless. What was this massive alliance really protecting against? Putin I think sensed this weakness in the alliance.

Putin did not like the idea that former Warsaw Pct nations were joining NATO, and he really did not like the idea that nations once part of the Soviet Union and shared a border with Russia (the Baltic countries) had joined NATO or were inspired to do so (Ukraine).

So he manufactures this conflict with the Ukraine. He thinks to himself:

“Nobody did poo poo when we went into Crimea and the response to our Georgian campaign was divisive in the West…

Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas, which means we can attack Ukraine and further divide NATO states, weakening the alliance even more and taking one step towards reforming ‘Greater Russia.’”

But, at the end of the day what he actually achieved was the opposite. He not only established Russia as a pariah state at the global level, but he is also shooting the Russian economy in the foot, while uniting NATO and giving the alliance the meaning it really has been lacking since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

This whole thing has blown up in Putin’s face.

This is my take as well. It's terrifying that Putin took an action many people considered insane and irrational. But he has, and now a largely united west is in the process of responding, and the photos and videos will bring this war home to a historically unprecedented degree.

I don't think this is how he imagined it going.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


vuk83 posted:

The Danish army as if now has no air defence, except some old stingers.
The Danish army did fine in operation bomb useless dirt, doesn't necessarily translate into ability to contend a peer war.

After this give it a few years and I'll bet a whole lot of Europe is going to have armed up just to be safe.

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TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Alchenar posted:

Apparently NATO has invaded Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Fio_edwards/status/1496826152207458314

e: you can have the 'perhaps NATO should have taken a different approach towards englargement in the 90 and 00's' conversation in general and there is a meaningful conversation to be had there, but anyone who woke up this morning and decided that the correct line is anything other than 'gently caress Putin' is really showing their true colours.

https://twitter.com/ParkerCiccone/status/1496829207045115904

This was just retweeted by John McDonnell and looks very different, and it's the same date/time as the above poster

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