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sebzilla posted:What are some reasonable schools of thought on the Russian goals of this offensive, then? I also am struggling with this, it is difficult to see what actual gain they get from even an "ideal" outcome for them where they apparently annex the entire country? I can only guess that it was intended more as a bluff and now they are just not willing to back down having been called on it, or it's pure demented nationalist revanchism.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:36
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sebzilla posted:What are some reasonable schools of thought on the Russian goals of this offensive, then? Suwalki gap is worrisome in different parallel, Belarus-Russia military integration. Primary goal of this offensive seems to be to depose the government, the secondary - to incapacitate country’s military. Presently it’s impossible to judge if they’ll be able to pull off a puppet government, or will go for total occupation, or bomb Kyiv until the country surrenders, or do something else.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:37
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CommieGIR posted:The goal is Ukraine. Putin openly said as much in his pre-recoded speech. Their intention is to do regime change, demilitarize Ukraine, and hunt down "undesirables". And if this sounds like a muddled mess of objectives that could take years and isn't measured in purely military victory, you are 100% right. To "win" the way Putin has described it requires years and Russia will be sanctioned the entire time.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:37
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https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1496870425585934339?s=20&t=yLaR0JlScFNTKDVdgr7opw Ahh, I remember the last two governments who used this same infographic.... Armenia and Afghanistan
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Feb 24, 2022 16:37
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Mooseontheloose posted:It should also be pointed out that Putin probably recorded his decleration of war. There was not peaceful option he was willing to accept unless it was make Ukraine a Russian puppet. Yeah the last OSNIT I saw was it was likely recorded Monday, shortly after the other pre-recorded propaganda videos Putin made.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:37
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projecthalaxy posted:Also I'm not as up on my geneva conventions as some people is there any rule against targeting religious/cultural things because if they're a few miles from the Kyiv center then they're probably close to the Lavra cathedral complex which is a beautiful 9th century (built up since then) cathedral and reliquary that (as the embassy reminds us in meme form) was there and already gold painted when Moscow was a muddy forest and its one of the most beautiful places in the world and it really annoys me that they're going to blow it up out of spite There's the Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict, to which Russia is a signatory in its capacity as successor to the USSR, but that's more a way of tallying up war crimes after the fact than anything that will actually guide Russian actions. If they refrain from blowing something up it'll be for reasons of self-interest.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:37
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OwlFancier posted:I also am struggling with this, it is difficult to see what actual gain they get from even an "ideal" outcome for them where they apparently annex the entire country? Putin gets to conquer a land and kill 40 million people like all the great tsars. Thats it. Thats what this is. He wants a crown of skulls and everyone on earth has decided to let him make it.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:38
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Morrow posted:This is also the first conventional war Europe has seen in 77 years. Hindsight being 20/20, I can't terribly fault someone skeptical that Russia would straight up invade all of Ukraine. Sarajevo?
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Feb 24, 2022 16:38
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Kaddish posted:I don't understand. It seems like Ukraine was in no way ready for an obvious invasion. There aren't many good options against massive airstrikes. It looks like they're trying to survive the night now, and reports seem to be they're doing a decent job of it. Whatever their plans were, surely they started with "survive the initial airstrikes and then..."
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Feb 24, 2022 16:38
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Quorum posted:There's the Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict, to which Russia is a signatory in its capacity as successor to the USSR, but that's more a way of tallying up war crimes after the fact than anything that will actually guide Russian actions. If they refrain from blowing something up it'll be for reasons of self-interest. surely the noble defenders invading to protect the legacy of Kievan Rus' from the nazis would not destroy their proud nationalist heritage
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Feb 24, 2022 16:39
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Sinteres posted:You know they have the same religion right? Russia's not deliberately destroying an Orthodox cathedral out of spite. Anyway short answers yes, and long answer is very long: https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docindex/v2_rul_rule38
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Feb 24, 2022 16:39
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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496870591483330560
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Feb 24, 2022 16:39
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OwlFancier posted:I also am struggling with this, it is difficult to see what actual gain they get from even an "ideal" outcome for them where they apparently annex the entire country? The last option, kinda. Putin's grasp on power is predicated on upholding the nationalist myth of a militarily powerful and persecuted nation.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:39
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:they haven't even kicked russia out of eurovision, and up until the actual invasion Belgium and Italy didn't loving want poo poo like diamonds or luxury clothes to be on the export ban list. Even now Germany's trying to keep putin off because Scholz still loving thinks he can talk to him and save the gas. They should legit just seize Russian properties around western Europe, pile up all the belongings inside into the town square, and burn them on the BBC. Burn every yacht in Nice down to the waterline. Make it clear that no Russian should ever feel comfortable buying a townhouse in Kensington ever again. Have they even closed their airports to Aeroflot?
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Feb 24, 2022 16:40
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TheRat posted:This seems very late putin kept dancing around his will he / won't he thing (he totally will) which meant that ukraine openly gearing up for the inevitable invasion could be cast as a pretext for invasion as long as putin was dangling the prospect of some way to avoid this conflict, it made it more difficult for ukraine to break out the guns and mobilize
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Feb 24, 2022 16:40
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OwlFancier posted:
everyone thought it was the first one until putin gave the speech and now its pretty clearly the second. But he's going to prevent ukraine from joining a bloc they never would've joined anyway!
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Feb 24, 2022 16:41
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With regards to sanctions: what should Steam (and other online stores) do with Russian content? Keep on selling it? Give it away for free? Sell it but don't pay money to the Russian developers? It might sound like a silly question, but the answer is already not obvious to me. So I can understand why thre's still some debate about stuff like blocking the Russian banks from SWIFT, because the impact of that is 1000000 times bigger.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:41
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https://twitter.com/teaktreeturmoil/status/1496869993249599496?t=w2w0NSQFw-nyJgr59t9-iw&s=09
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Feb 24, 2022 16:41
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Putin did not invade Ukraine because he would have been too embarassed not to invade Ukraine.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:42
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Pook Good Mook posted:To "win" the way Putin has described it requires years and Russia will be sanctioned the entire time. Oh I don't expect Russian sanctions to disappear in the next decade, even if things calm down. That's the thing about sanctions, they tend to stick around.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:42
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Is this an anti-war protest or a pro- war march?
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Feb 24, 2022 16:42
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/teaktreeturmoil/status/1496869993249599496?t=w2w0NSQFw-nyJgr59t9-iw&s=09 Shine on you crazy Ukrainians
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Feb 24, 2022 16:42
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/teaktreeturmoil/status/1496869993249599496?t=w2w0NSQFw-nyJgr59t9-iw&s=09 Make the Russia military bleed, Ukraine!
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Feb 24, 2022 16:44
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Walh Hara posted:With regards to sanctions: what should Steam (and other online stores) do with Russian content? Keep on selling it? Give it away for free? Sell it but don't pay money to the Russian developers? This is a good question. I am naively hopeful that in addition to nation state sanctions, large corporations will apply meaningful pressure on their own as a response.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:44
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Cnn's anchor in Lviv has a MASSIVE nose holy poo poo  I thought that poo poo was being photoshopped live or something.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:44
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eke out posted:surely the noble defenders invading to protect the legacy of Kievan Rus' from the nazis would not destroy their proud nationalist heritage That's more or less the self interest reasons I had in mind, yeah. Smashing up iconic Orthodox heritage sites wouldn't play well to more or less any audience.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:44
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/teaktreeturmoil/status/1496869993249599496?t=w2w0NSQFw-nyJgr59t9-iw&s=09 It looks like the opposite is happening.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:44
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TulliusCicero posted:Is this an anti-war protest or a pro- war march? If I'm not mistaken they're chanting "njet voiny" which is "no war"
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Feb 24, 2022 16:44
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TulliusCicero posted:Is this an anti-war protest or a pro- war march? The former. There are anti-war protests in most big cities happening right now and the riot police is all too happy to do the only thing it knows how to do
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Feb 24, 2022 16:44
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/teaktreeturmoil/status/1496869993249599496?t=w2w0NSQFw-nyJgr59t9-iw&s=09 I'm torn on this kind of thing. I really want Ukraine to remain free and I think if anything on this dumb planet is worth dying for self-determination is one of those things. But folks shooting from homes/apartments used to get entire city blocks destroyed by the US in Iraq. I really wish this wasn't happening, it's devastating to imagine the impact knowing what this stuff looks like up close.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:45
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TulliusCicero posted:Is this an anti-war protest or a pro- war march? Anti- They're chanting "No to war!", although I can't make out what the dude with the megaphone is yelling. Might be a cop, can only hear "I ask you to..." Lots of cops out here. I don't think they anticipated that Russians will be against it. Because why not. They're loving idiots. Putin probably thinks 98% or whatever of support is real.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:45
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Jiro posted:Cnn's anchor in Lviv has a MASSIVE nose holy poo poo he's a journalist. he's supposed to sniff around
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Feb 24, 2022 16:46
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TulliusCicero posted:Is this an anti-war protest or a pro- war march? Anti-war. If you hear anything with that cadence that sounds like "net vay-nye" that's No To War. You're gonna hear a lot of it because everyday Russians don't fuckin like this
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Feb 24, 2022 16:46
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...o=rss-flipboardquote:More than 150 senior Russian officials have signed an open letter condemning Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine as 'an unprecedented atrocity' and warning of 'catastrophic consequences'.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:46
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TulliusCicero posted:Is this an anti-war protest or a pro- war march? Anti-war, very heartening to see. These people are brave.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:46
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It is late. A noteworthy nuance here is that Ukrainians distinguish between different classes of reserves, and what in many countries would count as full mobilisation did already happen, even though arguably belatedly. It's possible they feared doing so earlier would be used as a pretext by Russia to move even more quickly and end hopes of a diplomatic solution. Obviously stupid now, but not unreasonable considering one of Russia's excuses is that this is "defensive" invasion.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:47
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TulliusCicero posted:Is this an anti-war protest or a pro- war march? anti-war. many russians see the war as pointless, ukraine as a sibling country who did nothing aggressive, etc civilians in both ukraine and russia were blowing off the possibility of war as brinkmanship until very recently, now that poo poo is actually hitting the fan people are getting real political real fast. not that it matters to the russian government but i dont think this war is broadly popular among the russian people, and it will be less so the more russian soldiers get killed for... what reason exactly?
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Feb 24, 2022 16:47
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Quorum posted:That's more or less the self interest reasons I had in mind, yeah. Smashing up iconic Orthodox heritage sites wouldn't play well to more or less any audience. You're probably right i just at this moment for hopefully obvious reasons am assuming Putin will do the worst and cruelest thing in every possible situation
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Feb 24, 2022 16:47
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lunael1982 posted:Finnish military isn't simple punching bag. Yes, we would lose but we are one of the rare european countries that haven't scaled down their military or military spending after cold war. And the only thing we have to offer for potential invader are endless woods, marshes and bogs. Are your snipers still as good as in past?
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Feb 24, 2022 16:48
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It looks like the opposite is happening. I'm not exactly gleeful about this either unlike some I would rather not have Ukraine become "Afghanistan," if only for the people living there. Of course people will defend themselves how they must. but the gleeful "This will turn Ukraine into Afghanistan!" seems a little heartless for Ukrainians!
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Feb 24, 2022 16:48
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