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Seems like we've got a solid argument that America's decline is definitely a net ill for peace and stability around the world. A single carrier battlegroup could bring the Russian invasion to its knees in under an hour. It seems like the only reason why Russia can win at all is because its fighting a country much weaker than it, and even still it seems like a 50/50 thing.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:59
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MasterSitsu posted:https://downdetector.ca/status/twitter/ It's also not down across the board; it's working for me currently
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Feb 24, 2022 20:00
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MasterSitsu posted:https://downdetector.ca/status/twitter/ It's up for me right now. The chuds on my FB feed are defending this "liberation of Ukraine", but they aren't many thankfully.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:00
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https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1496919377802891265?s=20&t=QdN9wTkWFeLp6kPIzdbtBg https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1496921860939948036 situation is confused to say the least
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Feb 24, 2022 20:00
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Raenir Salazar posted:Seems like we've got a solid argument that America's decline is definitely a net ill for peace and stability around the world. A single carrier battlegroup could bring the Russian invasion to its knees in under an hour. It seems like the only reason why Russia can win at all is because its fighting a country much weaker than it, and even still it seems like a 50/50 thing. There is no way the US would send even one carrier group to engage Russia unless it's a NATO ally, Japan, or the US itself.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:01
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Raenir Salazar posted:Seems like we've got a solid argument that America's decline is definitely a net ill for peace and stability around the world. A single carrier battlegroup could bring the Russian invasion to its knees in under an hour. It seems like the only reason why Russia can win at all is because its fighting a country much weaker than it, and even still it seems like a 50/50 thing. A carrier battle group where? Carriers aren't allowed in the black sea.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:01
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1496919377802891265?s=20&t=QdN9wTkWFeLp6kPIzdbtBg A Ukrainian General has declared that the initial Russian invasion has failed on the first day. But I dare not believe anything at this point.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:01
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Morrow posted:There's another stickied thread in the forum with charities. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3994478 Thanks and thanks to others that also posted the sticky thread. Didn't see it and have now donated.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:02
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Raenir Salazar posted:A single carrier battlegroup could bring the Russian invasion to its knees in under an hour.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:02
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Shes Not Impressed posted:A Ukrainian General has declared that the initial Russian invasion has failed on the first day. https://twitter.com/business/status/1496921478721327110
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Feb 24, 2022 20:02
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Raenir Salazar posted:Seems like we've got a solid argument that America's decline is definitely a net ill for peace and stability around the world. A single carrier battlegroup could bring the Russian invasion to its knees in under an hour. It seems like the only reason why Russia can win at all is because its fighting a country much weaker than it, and even still it seems like a 50/50 thing. I uh... do not think that it necssarily could, or that this would stop the russian invasion as much as escalate it into a world war... Russia is not a country which is fundamentally incapable of attacking a carrier in the fashion that every other country the US has fought in the last several decades have been, it still has access to a lot of soviet weapons designed to obliterate carrier groups, the US in all likelihood would not let one of their very expensive aircraft carriers go anywhere near them in a combat role.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:03
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1496919377802891265?s=20&t=QdN9wTkWFeLp6kPIzdbtBg ??? I think the only source I actually trust is the Ukranians at this point, just 
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Feb 24, 2022 20:03
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Terebus posted:China is economically intertwined to the US to the point that they would probably create a system to exclusively bank with the US if anything happened to SWIFT. It's not like Russia is just being dropped randomly, or "to conduct US foreign policy". This is an international agreement in response to an aggressive state invading a sovereign nation. The US isn't the sole nation that is responding to this, and a US centered view on this situation is... short sighted at best. Just the US and their treaty allies/military dependencies doesn't make it much more neutral in a global sense. And yeah, China of course needs a way to do business with the US, but it's not like the rest of the world has shown a great willingness to forego economic activity with China either. If China believes the US ability to use Swift to cut it off from the rest of the world is a critical threat to its prosperity, it'll presumably at least prioritize a system that allows for bilateral relationships under a different system, and ideally one that ultimately gains enough market share to be a viable alternative/replacement more generally. I'm not a finance wizard so maybe there are subtleties I'm missing here, but China's certainly not the only country with concerns about overbearing US economic policy (see third party sanctions against Iran), so I think they could find some takers as American willingness to weaponize international financial institutions became increasingly clear. khwarezm posted:Is there any possible way that you think that places like the UK and the US should retaliate against what Russia is doing in Ukraine? What's done is done, but I think the removal of previous sanctions should have been on the table before the crisis, so there were carrots involved instead of just sticks. In principle there are probably specific sanctions that make sense, even if there's very little to show that they actually work as an instrument of coercion (as opposed to collective punishment), but targeted action against oligarchs (especially those residing in or heavily invested in each country) sounds good to me. Third party stuff is always dodgy, but if they can turn the screws on Cyprus to take action against offshore Russian money, I think that would definitely be a good thing too.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:03
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Biden mumbles when on the teleprompter, but his answers are good.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:03
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Sounds like their big focus should be taking back that Antonov Airport to avoid getting Paris in 1940'd
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Feb 24, 2022 20:04
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Yeah, let's just wait a month or two to find out if these were good sanctions or not.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:05
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A dude actually criticizing Putin to his face on live tv (that he scheduled?!?) seems like a sign.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:06
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If Russia actually did lose that airport, they massively hosed up, but it wouldn't be too surprising since they don't seem to have been able to meaningfully reinforce it.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:07
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A cyberwar with Russia is a lot scarier than most people seem to let on. A bunch of trolls “accidentally” disrupted the gas pipeline in a portion of the East coast briefly which led to widespread panic and a near gas shortage. Imagine what freezing up the gas pipelines in the US completely would look like? This is hardly limited to email leaks or R&D disruptions.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:07
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At this point both sides are engaged in psy-ops. You can make the argument, that the "West" briefing out that Kiev will fall in hours because they know it will not and can serve as a symbol of resistance... or it might fall.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:08
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Do we know who this senior official is or is this like when Trump would do the "Sources close to Trump familar with Trump's thinking say"... Because who the hell would Bloomberg be talking to?
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Feb 24, 2022 20:08
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OwlFancier posted:I uh... do not think that it necssarily could, or that this would stop the russian invasion as much as escalate it into a world war... The CBG thing is just insane fantasy. Ignoring the extremely relevant and practical realities of both the Montreaux convention and the inherent escalation involved with putting the US Navy in the midst of the shooting, Russian naval aviation spent decades attempting to solve the "how do I kill a CBG?" problem and I wouldn't bet against them having some pretty decent concepts worked out.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:08
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punk rebel ecks posted:A cyberwar with Russia is a lot scarier than most people seem to let on. A bunch of trolls “accidentally” disrupted the gas pipeline briefly which led to widespread panic and a near gas shortage. It would absolutely suck but doing something similar to Russia would basically cripple its economy since they are extremely fuel focused. Which is probably why it hasn't happened yet.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:08
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1496919377802891265?s=20&t=QdN9wTkWFeLp6kPIzdbtBg This whole situation is highlighting how incredibly fast modern warfare has become in the 21st century. Talking about the fall of the capital of Ukraine less than 24 hours after hostilities began. Like even during the famously rapid fall of France in WW2 it took a few weeks before the Nazis were able to take Paris.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:09
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BoldFace posted:Yeah, let's just wait a month or two to find out if these were good sanctions or not. Bojo seemed more specific than Biden. Still not sure exactly what specifically we're sanctioning, nor how the cumulative effect would be "worse" than a SWIFT denial.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:09
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punk rebel ecks posted:A cyberwar with Russia is a lot scarier than most people seem to let on. A bunch of trolls “accidentally” disrupted the gas pipeline briefly which led to widespread panic and a near gas shortage. But what's unknown so far is just what the US is capable of unleashing. They haven't done much in the way of the wanton, criminal sabotage that have been attributed to Russians, state sponsored or not. This might give the impression that they aren't capable of it and it might mean that large swathes of Russian society isn't hardened against broad attacks.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:10
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Will someone answer the poor reporters? Why *NOT* sanction Putin directly? And what does that even look like?
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Feb 24, 2022 20:10
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Sinteres posted:If Russia actually did lose that airport, they massively hosed up, but it wouldn't be too surprising since they don't seem to have been able to meaningfully reinforce it. Yeah, it seems like a reasonable longshot chance (that still may have worked, who knows what the actual situation is)
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Feb 24, 2022 20:10
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I was thinking earlier that we haven't even seen the typical videos posted of AA fire over a capital city like Kiev. It's certainly very possible Ukrainian air-power/defense has been neutralized at this point. I'm sure that was a major Russian objective.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:10
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the popes toes posted:Bojo seemed more specific than Biden. Still not sure exactly what specifically we're sanctioning, nor how the cumulative effect would be "worse" than a SWIFT denial. I don't know why Biden can't just answer honestly, "I want to get rid of SWIFT access, but several European allies said no."
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Feb 24, 2022 20:11
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Pook Good Mook posted:I don't know why Biden can't just answer honestly, "I want to get rid of SWIFT access, but several European allies said no." You know exactly why if that's the case.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:12
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For anyone with WFH status like me, or has time on their hands here is related media from Frontline back in 2017. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/putins-revenge/
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Feb 24, 2022 20:12
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Vaginaface posted:Will someone answer the poor reporters? Why *NOT* sanction Putin directly? And what does that even look like? Confiscating his NFT apes.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:12
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I don’t think Putin understands that the United States, Great Britain, and France are also “powerful nuclear states.” Who does he think he’s threatening with that sort of talk? Mutually assured destruction is still a thing, he might as well be threatening to glass all of Russia over Ukraine. He’s either an idiot, crazy, or both.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:12
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Kaddish posted:I was thinking earlier that we haven't even seen the typical videos posted of AA fire over a capital city like Kiev. It's certainly very possible Ukrainian air-power/defense has been neutralized at this point. I'm sure that was a major Russian objective. I'm not a military guy but with the advent of Manpads and how easy they are to conceal in an urban setting I'm not really sure its possible anymore to say that all AA capabilities are quashed. Vehicles and such sure but yeah.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:12
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khwarezm posted:This whole situation is highlighting how incredibly fast modern warfare has become in the 21st century. Talking about the fall of the capital of Ukraine less than 24 hours after hostilities began. Like even during the famously rapid fall of France in WW2 it took a few weeks before the Nazis were able to take Paris. Well that and how quick information can cross the globe. Airport is taken, Airport is taken back, no wait... in WW2 you'd have a news article talking about the things going on the last X amount of time. Now it's instantaneous which is dizzying.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:12
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Pook Good Mook posted:I don't know why Biden can't just answer honestly, "I want to get rid of SWIFT access, but several European allies said no." He said that wasn't what the alliance agreed on, which could imply that, but yeah he could've been more direct.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:13
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Kaddish posted:I was thinking earlier that we haven't even seen the typical videos posted of AA fire over a capital city like Kiev. It's certainly very possible Ukrainian air-power/defense has been neutralized at this point. I'm sure that was a major Russian objective.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:13
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GaussianCopula posted:At this point both sides are engaged in psy-ops. You can make the argument, that the "West" briefing out that Kiev will fall in hours because they know it will not and can serve as a symbol of resistance... or it might fall.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:13
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ZombieLenin posted:I don’t think Putin understands that the United States, Great Britain, and France are also “powerful nuclear states.” Who does he think he’s threatening with that sort of talk? I'm pretty sure his speech prior to the invasion shows he's nuts.
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