Kaddish posted:100 highly trained and reasonably equipped special operation troops should be able to hold that airport for at least a few days, in the sense that holding it means they're still alive. Nah. SF is the same as any other - human bodies don't do well when they're hit with artillery or tank fire and everyone knowing where you're at and blowing it up isn't something being special forces protects you from.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:50
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Kaddish posted:100 highly trained and reasonably equipped special operation troops should be able to hold that airport for at least a few days, in the sense that holding it means they're still alive. yeah man, but they only have to wait out for the 1st Transformer Battalion to rescue them!
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Feb 24, 2022 20:50
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Pablo Bluth posted:Presumable at this point just shelling the runway to the point that fixed wing landings become impossible would be a gain for Ukraine? Destroying a runway is surprisingly difficult, they're pretty easy to fix in a matter of hours. The thing that is making fixed wing landings difficult is the fact that the airport is a battlefield. If the Russians succeed in holding the field and establishing a perimeter that would permit fixed wing aircraft to land, they'll likely be able to make the runway usable. If they can't do the former, the condition of the runway doesn't matter. So basically, Ukranian artillery shelling the runway only matters to the extent that it keep the airport contested and helps push the Russians off it. The rest is incidental.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:50
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Actually, I also don't think Putin is literally insane, like some folks in the thread have claimed.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:50
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Somaen posted:https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1496933090370985986 I wonder how those sanctions square with this statement. https://twitter.com/nwadhams/status/1496922093434384387 I know Biden provided cover by saying it’s more about avoiding opportunistic price gouging but this seems to indicate that the west is making sure they don’t hurt Putin where it would matter to ensure they can still get all that delicious oil and coal.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:51
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i am a moron posted:Nah. SF is the same as any other - human bodies don't do well when they're hit with artillery or tank fire and everyone knowing where you're at and blowing it up isn't something being special forces protects you from. Of course, but it depends on what the Ukrainians are prepared/ordered to do with regards to re-taking it.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:52
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I don't have a handle on how motivated Ukrainians are to fight a guerilla war against Russia if Putin actually tries to annex it. Winning the invasion is often the easy part for a would-be conqueror.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:52
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Inner Light posted:Those Twitter videos were the first time, hopefully the last, that I have seen Real Deal cruise missiles in flight whooshing along to their targets. Crazy to see. They sound just like an aircraft because of their jet engine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDL_pIPScSI Now you don't have to imagine.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:53
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TulliusCicero posted:I really do think Putin got cocky after Georgia and Crimea capitulated so easily. Ukraine really is taking it to the Russians right now it seems, to point that his ego's hurt and he's ranting about nukes again while offering peace at the point of a gun. I mean lets hold on a bit and see how things actually pan out before bragging about Russian difficulties. Its literally been a single day.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:53
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khwarezm posted:I mean lets hold on a bit and see how things actually pan out before bragging about Russian difficulties. Its literally been a single day. My pandemic clock tells me this has been happening for at least a month.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:54
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Kaddish posted:Actually, I also don't think Putin is literally insane, like some folks in the thread have claimed. I don't think he's literally insane, but to launch a war like this you can't be a person operating fully in reality.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:54
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Kaddish posted:Of course, but it depends on what the Ukrainians are prepared/ordered to do with regards to re-taking it. Not really, they've already said they deployed tanks and artillery against it. What makes you think a light infantry special forces unit is going to be able to hold that down for a few days? Unless I missed where they also fast roped their own tanks and arty into the airport
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Feb 24, 2022 20:54
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Kaddish posted:Actually, I also don't think Putin is literally insane, like some folks in the thread have claimed. Yeah, Putin is not insane he just subscribes to a realist worldview that you need to maximize power, and that the west are his main adversaries. He banked on the West largely abandoning Ukraine, and was right. He'll take what he can until the cost is too high, snd either negotiate some new better terms or leave a more favorable status quo. How is any of that crazy? It's immoral, disgusting, and deeply cynical, but it makes sense if one buys into realist logic.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:55
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Kaddish posted:100 highly trained and reasonably equipped special operation troops should be able to hold that airport for at least a few days, in the sense that holding it means they're still alive. They were all brought in via helicopter, presumably they do not have much in the way of heavier equipment with them, there's probably about 100 of them against (I think) a brigade of Ukrainian national guard (and that means heavier, longer ranged indirect weaponry). Airpower may protect them, but that's not a fight they can take and win straight on.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:55
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khwarezm posted:I mean lets hold on a bit and see how things actually pan out before bragging about Russian difficulties. Its literally been a single day.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:56
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sean10mm posted:I don't have a handle on how motivated Ukrainians are to fight a guerilla war against Russia if Putin actually tries to annex it. Winning the invasion is often the easy part for a would-be conqueror. We also don't know how organized and long the resistance will be. This isn't Afghanistan or even Iraq, Ukraine does have an organized military. If they can keep parts of it intact they can force Russia to stretch their divisions to city capture and control while Ukraine maintains a coherent fighting force that trades space for time. It depends on whether Russia tries to take the full length of the Dnieper and if so, how much fighting power Ukraine maintains. Do they pull back to the West? Do they accept getting cut off? Either way, is there an organized army left defending Lviv and the mountains in the west? How does Russia deal with organized resistance in the major cities? Does Zelensky get captured? Does he sign a peace deal? Does the army honor the deal? It's too drat early to know.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:56
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Randarkman posted:They were all brought in via helicopter, presumably they do not have much in the way of heavier equipment with them, there's probably about 100 of them against (I think) a brigade of Ukrainian national guard (and that means heavier, longer ranged indirect weaponry). Airpower may protect them, but that's not a fight they can take and win straight on. The absolute best they can hope to achieve right now is tying up a much larger force that could be direly used elsewhere.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:56
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Kaddish posted:Actually, I also don't think Putin is literally insane, like some folks in the thread have claimed. He's probably not; at least up to this point, he's made a rational (if extremely risky) gamble here that may ultimately pay off if he can force Ukraine into the sort of peace that he wants. It's also an extremely cynical, outright evil move he's made, and he deserves to be regarded and remembered as a warmongering imperialist. Geopolitics is a truly hosed-up game, where bad guys often win.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:57
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TulliusCicero posted:I really do think Putin got cocky after Georgia and Crimea capitulated so easily. Ukraine really is taking it to the Russians right now it seems, to point that his ego's hurt and he's ranting about nukes again while offering peace at the point of a gun. Russian politicians and Putin listened too much to their own propaganda ignoring any updates in the West on how well equipped (from infantry perspective) and trained Ukraine military is. Sort of like Qanon living in their own reality even with other sources of information being widely available. I think even a larger piece of the propaganda that they believe is that there is a huge ~50% segment of population living under Ukranian "nazism" that will rise up against Ukraine internally and help Russians take it. They expected an immediate civil war even if they did anticipate strong army resistance. They truly expected this to go just like a 1940s playbook of liberating a country from Nazi Germany.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:57
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JosefStalinator posted:Yeah, Putin is not insane he just subscribes to a realist worldview that you need to maximize power, and that the west are his main adversaries. I agree, and ultimately this will play out 'fine' for Putin and his ambitions, probably maybe. Randarkman posted:They were all brought in via helicopter, presumably they do not have much in the way of heavier equipment with them, there's probably about 100 of them against (I think) a brigade of Ukrainian national guard (and that means heavier, longer ranged indirect weaponry). Airpower may protect them, but that's not a fight they can take and win straight on. I also agree they couldn't win a fight head-on. They just need to hold it for a matter of hours/days, and wouldn't be surprised if they did just that. Again it depends on how much the Ukrainian government/military is willing to decimate the place. Kaddish fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 20:57
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Ukraine should give the Fulcrum pilot the award Hero of the Soviet Union for the first time since 1989 just to rub it in Putin's face.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:57
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MikeC posted:Rewatch his speech following his meeting with Marcon. He isn't some deranged idiot everyone here says he his. He clearly laid out how he knows his own conventional forces are no match for NATO. He then goes on to imply in any conflict with NATO, he would have no chance but to go nuclear and that is a war that has no winners. Yes, but he has no chance in a nuclear conflict either. Even less of one, unless he expects that the West will simply not retaliate if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons… which of course it will. Then we are left with a strategic nuclear exchange, where… fair enough, he will kill a hundred million and damage the entire world; of course at the cost the complete annihilation of himself, his dream of greater Russia, and the very existence of his country as a nation state. I would like to think there is no person on this earth who is willing to sacrifice the lives of millions of their own population, and the existence of their whole country at the alter of their own pride. And frankly, “let me invade and conquer anyone I want or we will use nuclear weapons” is an impossible strategy. You don’t get to conquer Europe, or the world, because other countries who also have nuclear weapons cower before your threats to use yours. Incidentally, given Putin’s recent threats I have a question that has yet to be addressed by anyone. What does NATO do if Russia decides to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine? I feel like this is a an I acknowledged red line that would have to trigger some sort of NATO response. Edit Phone posting. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 20:57
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Conspiratiorist posted:That was from the initial air assault over Hostomel. Committing an entire Brigade of helos to an air assault that deep into Ukrainian territory seemed suicidal when I first saw it, making me doubt the location in initial reports, but it seems they scoped out there were few MANPADS (due to slow mobilization) and the VDV just loving went with it to land a paratrooper brigade and secure the airport. I just wanted to quote this pretty fascinating collection of Twitter vids. Thanks, guy. So this Ukrainian pilot is probably dead now, yeah?
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Feb 24, 2022 20:58
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My personal opinion is that Putin's final slide into what he is now coincided with the last 2 covid years in the bunker. Either the relative isolation taken a toll on man's mind or Kremlin court intrigue used the opportunity to remove some of his more sane advisors. Also I predicted a faw weeks ago how the olygarch tower of the kremlin will suddenly realize now that maybe a KGB man running the Russia sucks, and treating international relations as a clandestine games to stick it to the west might be disastrously counterproductive.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:58
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Pook Good Mook posted:We also don't know how organized and long the resistance will be. This isn't Afghanistan or even Iraq, Ukraine does have an organized military. If they can keep parts of it intact they can force Russia to stretch their divisions to city capture and control while Ukraine maintains a coherent fighting force that trades space for time. It depends on whether Russia tries to take the full length of the Dnieper and if so, how much fighting power Ukraine maintains. Do they pull back to the West? Do they accept getting cut off? Either way, is there an organized army left defending Lviv and the mountains in the west? How does Russia deal with organized resistance in the major cities? Does Zelensky get captured? Does he sign a peace deal? Does the army honor the deal? Iraq had an organized military and the Baathists were running the show before we invaded. They also had insurgencies before we even showed up. I wouldn't say this is apples to apples, especially once the Iranians started funneling training/money in it was an extremely difficult country to hold. I hope for Ukraines sake they can repel this.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:59
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There are barely any situations where its a good idea to dismiss major heads of state as merely 'crazy' and frankly doing so is usually an attempt to whip up war hysteria due to the prospect that the other guy is suicidally nuts so we need to take him out first before they destroy the whole world, see for example the way that American officials have talked about Iran forever.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:59
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Kaddish posted:I agree, and ultimately this will play out 'fine' for Putin and his ambitions, probably maybe. Yeah, all the people crowing about the oligarchs deposing highlight the ONE way this could hurt him but i think it vastly overstated the chances of this. Putin has spent decades carefully crafting power and neutering opposition. It would take a truly humiliating defeat or dragged out war to break his grip on power. He'll likely get away with it and be framed a hero by Russian nationalists, and retire with this operation as the feather in his cap.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:00
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JosefStalinator posted:Yeah, Putin is not insane he just subscribes to a realist worldview that you need to maximize power, and that the west are his main adversaries. I agree he's not insane, but his actions go beyond being a realist. His stated justification, the composition of forces he's arrayed (so, so many thermobarics Russia intends to use against densely populated cities), and the way he did his speech and signed the decree *before* the Security Council meeting in which he then makes everyone act like he's earnestly listening to their opinions before making a decision on signing the bill they all just saw him signed, all mark him as thoroughly sociopathic. https://twitter.com/peterliakhov/status/1495851796782362628
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Feb 24, 2022 21:00
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Pablo Bluth posted:It's now being reported that it crashed inside Russia. Might explain the lack of info earlier other than a couple of photos of the tail and nothing else, or it could be propaganda to deny Ukraine the benefit. If it was taken down by long-range AA, that might also explain how it could have ended up crashing before it got into Ukrainian airspace. Ukraine have presumably been aware all along that in the case of an invasion, long-range AA capabilities would be target #1 for the russian air force, and that there'd be no way it could operate effectively on day one without getting annihilated promptly. Given those circumstances, I'm not able think of a reason that Ukraine wouldn't hide the AA away and only have it pop out to take shots at soft targets of opportunities, like transport planes.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:00
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You don't have to be insane to be a tyrant wanting to expand your territory. Being a cruel dictator isn't a mental illness.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:00
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i am a moron posted:Not really, they've already said they deployed tanks and artillery against it. What makes you think a light infantry special forces unit is going to be able to hold that down for a few days? Unless I missed where they also fast roped their own tanks and arty into the airport The battle for Donetsk airport went on for months. There's plenty of reinforced buildings to potentially hole up inside, and the invasion force still can call on air support and missile strikes. So, who knows. I wouldn't make any bets for either side here, we know practically nothing of the situation there.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:02
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I'm pretty sure I can hear faint explosions on the Maidan Square webcam.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:03
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How are u posted:I don't think he's literally insane, but to launch a war like this you can't be a person operating fully in reality. One thing I agree with Obama about is that being in power too long makes people lose touch with reality. Like my impression is that Putin was always a pretty cold person, but after decades in power, and the isolation that brings, I imagine that's only become more true. Probably almost everyone feels bad the first time they order people killed, but I assume it gets easier with time. I don't think he's insane in the irrational sense, but I do think he probably doesn't feel a lot of guilt when he's responsible for the deaths of innocents anymore, which means he's not much like the rest of us, to the point where in a colloquial sense many might consider that insane. Though obviously in some sense that applies to a whole bunch of world leaders. khwarezm posted:There are barely any situations where its a good idea to dismiss major heads of state as merely 'crazy' and frankly doing so is usually an attempt to whip up war hysteria due to the prospect that the other guy is suicidally nuts so we need to take him out first before they destroy the whole world, see for example the way that American officials have talked about Iran forever. Yeah every US adversary is always painted as insane, and I imagine the same is often true in reverse. If you have to be hosed up in some way to be a world leader, maybe it's true to some extent, but yeah there's obviously a lot of demonization going on behind that too. And maybe also not wanting to believe people like you and me could do something like that.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:03
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https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1496938386342490117?s=20&t=I9TKgWPB1FjvxsOtHb7ZAw Did Turkey ever respond to Ukrainian government's request to block the Russian navy out of shipping passages?
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Feb 24, 2022 21:07
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Edit: bad post.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:08
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External Organs posted:I just wanted to quote this pretty fascinating collection of Twitter vids. Thanks, guy. Well, that's what I thought. This man got on that plane 100% knowing he'd not be coming back, and that Flanker looked to be taking the advantageous position at the end of the clip. https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1496835721109422081 And minutes later saw this footage, and saluted. Most likely that was it. VDV took the airport. BUT THEN  https://mobile.twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1496860329007267840 That's a Fulcrum! Russians aren't fielding Fulcrums! Unless anyone can convince me otherwise, I'm saying that Fulcrum pilot scratched the Su-30SM in a dogfight, landed, rearmed, and returned to start dropping rockets on the VDV at altitude zero because if he flies any higher for more than a moment he gets aced by SAMs. I dare you to give me a radar track that says different, because the Ukrainians simply do NOT have a lot of MiG-29s left or we'd be seeing a lot of them, and from what we've seen this guy is doing the same sort of extremely low altitude poo poo from the other video. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 21:08
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Hiro Protagonist posted:-edited it out Dunno, might be a war. Mesopotamia fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 21:09
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Nenonen posted:The battle for Donetsk airport went on for months. There's plenty of reinforced buildings to potentially hole up inside, and the invasion force still can call on air support and missile strikes. So, who knows. I wouldn't make any bets for either side here, we know practically nothing of the situation there. Yeah, it really depends on how effective the Russian air cover can be at denying the Ukrainians to make use of their (probable) local superiority on the ground, and how fast Russian forces moving in that direction can advance. I just hope the Ukrainians manage to get this one win.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:10
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bustin keaton posted:Dunno, might be a war. You know what, fair. Post edited.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:10
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Nenonen posted:The battle for Donetsk airport went on for months. There's plenty of reinforced buildings to potentially hole up inside, and the invasion force still can call on air support and missile strikes. So, who knows. I wouldn't make any bets for either side here, we know practically nothing of the situation there. that was in a situation where both sides had land based routes to the battlefield for resupply and reinforcement. basically, the airfield was on the front lines, it wasn't an isolated thing this is a lot, LOT different than a situation where a company or so of elite light infantry were dropped off in an unlikely gamble but then they got isolated by a brigade sized quick reaction force. those russian paratroopers are hosed personally i think this was a very reckless idea which would pay off big time if the invasion exceeded expectations and you could have substantial amounts of infantry in the capital as the government collapses, but otherwise you're just sacrificing elite troops on a hail mary attempt at a coup de main. who knows, the battle is still ongoing. at least if these VDV dudes get killed or captured they did so in an extremely heroic fashion, which is really what they wanted all along (aside from getting rip roaring drunk and fist fighting on paratrooper day) e: historically, paratroopers have mixed success at best in lightning strikes, and there is a LOT of precedent for guys getting dropped on a gamble then getting chewed up horribly beyond reach of friendly support Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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