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Wonder what these 4 planes are  https://www.flightradar24.com/54482/2aefc9e6
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Feb 25, 2022 14:50
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TheRat posted:Why would we know if he did? because it would leak out hard. and the russians would be screaming it from the airwaves too.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:51
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A speculation: a quagmire that drags on to 2024 and sufficiently sabotages relations with the West would tie the hands of any successor to the Russian presidency.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:51
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This urban resistance plan seems most likely to result in mass death and not much else
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Feb 25, 2022 14:51
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i dont think they took the airport again. plus the ukraines blew it to gently caress so its usless for landing more support. The russians certainly announced they did, and we had video on a previous page of russian forces taking up defensive positions on what was said to be the airfield. And fixing a landing strip really doesnt take that much effort.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:51
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OwlFancier posted:Compared to the almost two million total, yes. Which illustrates very well how much more effective it is. i don't think tens of thousands of casualties on each side in kyiv is really all that palatable to either side
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Feb 25, 2022 14:52
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part of mobilization is setting up the defenses and supply lines needed to turn cities into fortresses, and the approaches into meatgrinders. For various reasons Ukraine never mobilized. If they're just throwing rifles to whoever shows up than this could easily be over by monday.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:52
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SirTagz posted:If the population wants it and Russia is not prepared to go 100% in with occupation how in gods name does Putin hope to stop Ukraine from drifting West anyway? The answer to your question is unfolding on the ground in Ukraine night now. Their willingness and capability to use military force.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:52
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Tai posted:Wonder what these 4 planes are Getting supplies and material from NATO stock in Poland? Or what are you implying?
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Feb 25, 2022 14:54
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brugroffil posted:This urban resistance plan seems most likely to result in mass death and not much else That's kind of the point of most Urban resistance plans? Make it so unpalatable that the invaders have no choice.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:54
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:i don't think tens of thousands of casualties on each side in kyiv is really all that palatable to either side Very probably not, but if they are determined to take the city and the ukrainians are heavily dug in and putting up strong resistance, then encirclement is probably the option that results in the least number of casualties for the russians. Unless they plan to simply flatten it, I really do not know how much the russians care about committing atrocities at this point. It is possible they can simply take the city by overwhelming the defenders, or that they will in fact surrender when encircled. Frankly I hope it is one of those because the alternative is that a shitload of ukrainians are going to die.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:54
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Grouchio posted:Can I get a summary of the past 12 hours? Just woke up less stressed out than yesterday https://twitter.com/stratcomcentre Scroll this account for a summary. In short, series of air strikes on Kyiv, and urban combat in select areas of Kyiv. Russian forces are advancing primarily on E101 highway (NE) and from Chernobyl (N). Russian MoD claims 200 helicopter retake of the Hostomel airport, but I’ve seen literally no video evidence of that as of yet.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:54
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Czech Republic supposedly as well, that'll show em!
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Feb 25, 2022 14:54
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Dapper_Swindler posted:FSB are big on crushing dissidents of any kind. Its predecessor, the KGB, as described in this book: https://www.amazon.com/Sword-Shield-Mitrokhin-Archive-History/dp/0465003125/, loved to crush dissidents, too.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:54
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Kyiv, for those of you who haven’t been, is an extremely metropolitan and vibrant city with nightclubs, an IMAX theater, a Samsung headquarters building, many European branded stores and restaurants, Сілпо (basically ukrainian whole foods.This is not to diminish the horror of war when it impacts non-european cities, but it’s truly an unconscionable set of circumstances to imagine that a place I know, love, and called home is going to experience urban warfare. I think there has been a terrible miscalculation on the part of the Russian government and it will be very difficult to stop this thing. As a regional politics watcher who had a sure bet placed on the “frozen conflict” narrative and parallels to S. Ossetia, I really have no idea.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:54
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FlamingLiberal posted:I don’t understand what Putin’s plan was here. Do a quick strike and take out the leadership? There appears to be no plan B. Yeah, it seemed nonsensical to me too, but I think the plan is take Kiev, execute literally the entire current government to a man, install a puppet regime, declare victory, nail, with the threat of reinvasion as backstop to support the new regime. This plan will almost certainly work in the short term but the more costly the initial invasion is, the less of a threat reinvasion is.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:55
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brugroffil posted:This urban resistance plan seems most likely to result in mass death and not much else Versus what? Surrendering , having a puppet government installed and having citizens whisked away randomly?
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Feb 25, 2022 14:55
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Quick interesting question: let's say the Ukranian government in the west is able to get through to NATO and Ukraine becomes a member in the midst of this conflict, like right now. I know this is a hail mary that would require insane amounts of negotation among the European members but let's say it happens: What happens from there hypothetically? Does NATO enforce its mandate and help Ukraine? Do the Russians get ordered to leave Ukraine imminently or there will be a war with NATO? How would Putin/the Kremlin react being that caught off guard? TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 14:55
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I've been thinking this for the last two days: What was the military rationale behind attempting to hold all of Eastern Ukraine? American intelligence--that you did not really need to figure out what the Russians would try to do--told the Ukrainians before hand that the Russians were going to try to encircle the majority of the fighting strength of the Ukrainian Army and cut it off from being able to fall back to defend Kiev. Now it seems like the Ukrainians have got themselves in a situation where, when and if Kiev falls, the majority of the Ukrainian army will be completely cut off from retreat West across the Dnieper River, and incidentally cut off from any hope of resupply... which means they will eventually run out of food and ammunition regardless of how much military aid flows over NATO borders. It seems like the wisest thing would have been to a fighting withdraw to a defensive line roughly corresponding to the Kiev Dnieper line. But then again, I'm no military genius.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:56
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CommieGIR posted:That's kind of the point of most Urban resistance plans? Make it so unpalatable that the invaders have no choice. I'm saying I don't think it'll accomplish anything useful, just a lot of dead people. "The optics!" don't seem to matter.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:56
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Trump posted:Getting supplies and material from NATO stock in Poland? Or what are you implying? Nothing sinister. Don't worry. Just a bit lightheartedness on another sad day.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:57
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ZombieLenin posted:I've been thinking this for the last two days: It's extremely politically hard to say you are just going to abandon half the country without a fight. You also just risk the Russians taking that half without a shot and saying 'okay we're done' and without any shooting nobody imposes any sanctions.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:58
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SirTagz posted:But there already was a puppet regime and it was overthrown. It will be 10x harder to keep one in porwer now. My point is they cannot do it without full occupation I mean, I'm not trying to be a dick, but that's just basic history. Look up the Prague spring, the east German uprising or the Hungarian revolution. Once you have Russian military bases and huge amount of troops in a country and the Russian government is willing to smash in heads, revolution become almost impossible. And if there is one thing Putin is absolutely not afraid of it's violence against his own people(lest alone against foreigners).
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Feb 25, 2022 14:58
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TulliusCicero posted:Quick interesting question: let's say the Ukranian government in the west is able to get through to NATO and Ukraine becomes a member in the midst of this conflict, like right now. I know this is a hail mary that would require insane amounts of negotation among the European members but let's say it happens:
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Feb 25, 2022 14:58
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Tai posted:Wonder what these 4 planes are AN-32's. No idea other than speculating (supply run, evacuations or people?) Seems like there's been intermittent convoys of Ukrainian planes out of Lviv into Poland through the night like this. Still seeing the KC-135's and KC-10 refuellers over Poland and Romania, looks like they're constant feature. I wonder what they're doing? 2 US blackhaws in Eastern Poland currently too.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:58
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brugroffil posted:I'm saying I don't think it'll accomplish anything useful, just a lot of dead people. "The optics!" don't seem to matter. There is no good end to this, sad to say. But the idea that Ukraine should roll over and let Russia do what they want is a bitter pill as well.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:59
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Feb 25, 2022 14:59
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TulliusCicero posted:Quick interesting question: let's say the Ukranian government in the west is able to get through to NATO and Ukraine becomes a member in the midst of this conflict, like right now. I know this is a hail mary that would require insane amounts of negotation among the European members but let's say it happens: NATO is not going to let Ukraine in when they are in the midst of a Russian invasion, it's not even in the range of weird "one in a million situations". NATO specifically has rules against letting members in if they have active conflicts or contested territories.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:59
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FlamingLiberal posted:I don’t understand what Putin’s plan was here. Do a quick strike and take out the leadership? There appears to be no plan B. i legit think he had big W boomer brains and thought "we will be greeted as heroes and blitzkrieg to the heart". TulliusCicero posted:Quick interesting question: let's say the Ukranian government in the west is able to get through to NATO and Ukraine becomes a member in the midst of this conflict, like right now. I know this is a hail mary that would require insane amounts of negotation among the European members but let's say it happens: maybe but i think its too late though i think it depends how long this all lasts(not just invasion phase but insurgency/etc)
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Feb 25, 2022 14:59
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TulliusCicero posted:Quick interesting question: let's say the Ukranian government in the west is able to get through to NATO and Ukraine becomes a member in the midst of this conflict, like right now. I know this is a hail mary that would require insane amounts of negotation among the European members but let's say it happens: This is an impossible hypothetical, it’s about as interesting as wondering how would you respond to John McCain teleporting out of his grave and biting your balls off.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:00
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:its crazy how much putin is just completely at odds with the reputation hes built over the 20 loving years hes been in politics. Managed dissent so pressure doesn't build uncontrollably where you can't see it? Immediate arrest now. Crafty opportunist who goes for easy wins and bluffs? Full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Careful guarantor of Russian stability? Full-scale invasion of ukraine. Protect the economic interests of oligarchs? Full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Cold calculating mastermind? Rambling one hour speech about how Ukrainians were invented by the Bolsheviks This was a while ago but wanted to add it doesn’t help when you have no risk through the normal political process of losing your position of power to keep you sharp. And your yes men tell you all of the above about yourself.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:00
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oh poo poo, the ukrainians have the Postal dude.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:00
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Yeah Ukraine isn't getting in NATO. If NATO wanted to do that, they would've had to have done it the day the invasion kicked off. Its too little too late.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:01
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SirTagz posted:A silly question for you. Are diplomatic agreements Fixed this for you and the answer is "no" As far as the resistance Ukraine is giving, after the quick collapse of the government/military in Afghanistan to the Taliban, did people think this would go the same way? Or how most of the world's population just accepted the "get back to work" and "covid is over" rhetoric without much of a fight. That people were just too tired and exhausted of trying to fight for anything good? That Ukraine would just "learn to live" with Russian rule?
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Feb 25, 2022 15:01
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Alchenar posted:It's extremely politically hard to say you are just going to abandon half the country without a fight. You also just risk the Russians taking that half without a shot and saying 'okay we're done' and without any shooting nobody imposes any sanctions. That is broadly my thought too. If, bluntly, the Ukrainians don't put up a fight, I think it is likely the west would do nothing, just because it's easier. And it's not like this is russia where you have thousands of miles to fall back into and a constant supply of reserve materiel and soldiers. They're fighting for the whole country, people live there, it's not just an empty map to fight over with model armies.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:01
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CommieGIR posted:There is no good end to this, sad to say. But the idea that Ukraine should roll over and let Russia do what they want is a bitter pill as well. A bitter pill, and not to mention, impossible for a sizable portion of the population. Regardless of the central government’s decision there is no doubt in my mind that there will be sustained guerilla warfare against any occupation on an indefinite basis.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:01
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The Real Amethyst posted:AN-32's. No idea other than speculating (supply run, evacuations or people?) Seems like there's been intermittent convoys of Ukrainian planes out of Lviv into Poland through the night like this. Refueling aircraft that doesn't have their transponders on. Fighters patrolling the border? Rivet Joint flights?
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Feb 25, 2022 15:01
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GABA ghoul posted:I mean, I'm not trying to be a dick, but that's just basic history. Look up the Prague spring, the east German uprising or the Hungarian revolution. Once you have Russian military bases and huge amount of troops in a country and the Russian government is willing to smash in heads, revolution become almost impossible. And if there is one thing Putin is absolutely not afraid of it's violence against his own people(lest alone against foreigners). But Ukrainians are not foreigners, I was told.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:01
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Alchenar posted:It's extremely politically hard to say you are just going to abandon half the country without a fight. You also just risk the Russians taking that half without a shot and saying 'okay we're done' and without any shooting nobody imposes any sanctions. I get this to some extent, which is why I would have thought a fighting withdrawl to the West was preferred--not a Stalin/Hitler "HOLD THE LINE OF CONTACT AT ALL COSTS" sort of thing; and fat chance Russia will stop and call it a day as long Kiev holds and Zelenskyy has not been killed, captured, or fled to Poland and the Ukrainian military still shooting at Russian forces on the opposite side of the Dnieper.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:02
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Trump posted:Refueling aircraft that doesn't have their transponders on. Fighters patrolling the border? Rivet Joint flights? Rivet Joints have been flying in and around Ukraine for weeks, the Fighters are patrolling to scare off Russian border crossings. Their transponders are off to keep Russian SAMS (which have coverage in Poland) from getting free info.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:02
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