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Young Freud posted:They were having issues for months with the encampments in Belarus: scrounging to the point they depopulated the wildlife; soldiers sleeping in barns in large groups; the local Belarusians were apparently charging the Russian soldiers for food, with contract soldiers having to pay for themselves and the conscripts, who don't get paid by the Russian Ministry Of Defense. Wait, what the hell?  Russian conscripts aren't getting paid, not even a pittance? That's a really bad idea, the gently caressNo wonder there were already reports of Russian soldiers just surrendering. Getting shot at for zero pay and bad food? Hell, it must take superhuman efforts to keep fighting. TulliusCicero posted:I have an increasing feeling that COVID and the Russian economy falling apart have had a huge effect on the state of the military. This must be it. I remember reading in the news (German news), long before this all started, how poo poo went so hosed in Russia, multiple hospitals ran out of basic things like oxygen. I remember reading about a Russian industrial company proudly claiming they were donating their reserves of oxygen to Russian hospitals to keep things running, and the reported death tolls seemed insane back in the time. Especially to our own (fairly low) one. If Putin has isolated himself so much, he probably does neither believe, know, nor want to hear that the Russian military can't fight a prolonged war in this state. If Covid is the reason for what we're seeing, that would explain the immediate push towards the Ukrainian capital, multiple airborne landing attempts while not having secured the airspace: It's basically the Russian army hoping they can outrun their own collapse. But now Ukraine hasn't immediately folded, and poo poo is all hosed up
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Feb 26, 2022 11:26
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A military dude I know noted that if social media is anything to go by, the Ukrainian main mechanized forces are also still nowhere to be seen. What has been going on is smaller local units fighting. It seems that UKR is being disciplined and biding its time and waiting for the decisive battles while keeping a communications blackout, which is probably a good strategy, seeing how Russia is not doing as hot as they obviously thought they would. There's a lot that remains unclear.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:26
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Young Freud posted:They had thought they shut down the Ukrainian air defense and destroyed the UkAF on the ground, not thinking they'd move them out of their bases probably a week before hostilities. Dispersing your airforce is simple, it was a planned thing back in the Cold War. You have a stretch of highway and a tanker truck with jet fuel under camo. Ideally you take a few days to use your massive airforce to find and destroy the enemy airforce before starting the ground phase, but then you lose strategic surprise - they get to mobilize more men and materiel, and sappers prep more bridges - imagine if they blew the bridges at Chernobyl where it's the only crossing for 100+km? Others have pointed out the echelon tactics the Soviets planned to use in Germany - send the first wave in to the meat grinder, then when they became stuck or ineffective, send the second echelon in to hit the defenders with fresh troops. The first wave is expendable so you just take the attrition - no repairing broken vehicles, etc. Plus they've failed to capture any population centers outside maybe Cherson - your resupply network is presumably trucked, lots of bridges are down, and you have to pass little hornets nests of angry dug in defenders, and while a T-72 is NBC-hardened against a Molotov, a fuel tanker is NOT. This looks like a planned smash-and-grab that basically took no account of defenders. But it's too early.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:28
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barbecue at the folks posted:A military dude I know noted that if social media is anything to go by, the Ukrainian main mechanized forces are also still nowhere to be seen. What has been going on is smaller local units fighting. It seems that UKR is being disciplined and biding its time and waiting for the decisive battles while keeping a communications blackout, which is probably a good strategy, seeing how Russia is not doing as hot as they obviously thought they would. There's a lot that remains unclear. There has been video of wrecked Ukrainian armor, so they're out there, as well as Ukrainian armor being captured, but the communications blackout is definitely keeping any appearances in video.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:29
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Zephro posted:Seems like the sense that this is not going as well/quickly as Russia wanted isn't limited to us random nobodies on the intertubes: If the location of this video is correct it would seem to counter his claim that Melitopol is still Ukrainian controlled. https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497517644089602048
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Feb 26, 2022 11:29
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These random air drops are still weird as hell to me, even without any enemy units you would still struggle to occupy an entire city with just a few dozen soldiers
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Feb 26, 2022 11:29
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That's 7k men if I did the math right https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497516207469207557
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Feb 26, 2022 11:31
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Zephro posted:The point that it's only small numbers of Russian soldiers that have so far made it to Kyiv is encouraging (in the short term) and worrying (in the medium term) because it suggests the big guns and heavy armour haven't yet arrived. It's all on the borders though so what are they waiting for? We saw the satellite images of the forces and everything set up after footage of trains bringing all that armor for the invasion. Not enough fuel for the vehicles? Soldiers too hungry/sick to attack? I think everyone expected a huge coordinated push but who knows if it will ever happen?
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Feb 26, 2022 11:31
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cstang posted:The whole thing has been odd. Most of the captured Russians look and act as if they were trained just yesterday. The sabotage groups wearing Ukraine uniforms. Seems like Russia is employing desperate tactics early. I would have expected one of the largest militaries in recorded history to be having more victories than they have. Everyone is slowly finding out out that the Russian Army of today is not the Soviet Army of yesteryear. Looking more and more like a paper tiger.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:32
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the popes toes posted:It's so loving weird. A rando Ukrainian drives up to a broke dick tank and says, "Dudes. You need a tow back to Moscow?" Like, who drives up to the occupiers and yuks it up? Ukrainians that's who. I'd offer them a ride to my place and they can play Xbox until this all blows over, and I wouldn't be surprised at all at being taken up on that offer. Seems way better than getting barbecued by a Javelin.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:32
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Phlegmish posted:Keep in mind that we're mostly getting Ukrainian info about the situation, for whatever reason Russia's propaganda game really is not on point this time around - although that itself is possibly arguably a bad sign for the Russians. A factor in this might be improved protection of social media against Russian troll farm and bot activity. There has been a lot of investment on that front after the 2016 US election.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:32
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Play posted:Please, please loving do it. Do it you pussies. As if any of us give a flying gently caress about billionaire/corporate money stored in Russia, shouldn't even be there anyways. At the same time it's a good reminder for the idiots in charge of said western companies who probably thought "let's get this Russian market, big money, no risks!"
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Feb 26, 2022 11:32
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  There was a truck that came in front of that Strela 10 that ran over a car yesterday (the driver survived). The truck and it's crew did not survive - long range video of it and the death of the driver. You can see the armored vehicle drive off. Other posts I saw said it was Ukrainian that was stolen by special forces. https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1497515736855633921?s=20&t=HG39G-Z0MNmPZvMPVLC1fQ Comstar fucked around with this message at 11:36 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 11:34
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SUNKOS posted:It's all on the borders though so what are they waiting for? We saw the satellite images of the forces and everything set up after footage of trains bringing all that armor for the invasion. Not enough fuel for the vehicles? Soldiers too hungry/sick to attack? I think everyone expected a huge coordinated push but who knows if it will ever happen? You can only keep so many units supplied with fuel and ammo at a given time. I assume what they have sent in is the maximum they think they can keep supplied given the available transport and capacity of the roads.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:35
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Flesnolk posted:I'm confused at what seems to be a lot of signs of Russian logistical collapse. Their troops really shouldn't be running out of fuel or food two days into a war - I know stuff happens fast in modern wars, but come on. Supplying an army during an invasion is really difficult. Look at it another way. An American aircraft carrier using a nuclear reactor doesn't need its fuel replaced for 25 years but it travels in a battlegroup with supply ships than contain weapons and fuel for aircraft to sustain operations. Why do you think the US has naval bases scattered around the world along with deals with countries to use their ports?
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Feb 26, 2022 11:35
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barbecue at the folks posted:A military dude I know noted that if social media is anything to go by, the Ukrainian main mechanized forces are also still nowhere to be seen. What has been going on is smaller local units fighting. It seems that UKR is being disciplined and biding its time and waiting for the decisive battles while keeping a communications blackout, which is probably a good strategy, seeing how Russia is not doing as hot as they obviously thought they would. There's a lot that remains unclear. I think it's also worth noting that Ukraine only started mobilising the reserves at the start of the week. That process is going to be ongoing for some time. The regular army is 250k, the reserve is another ~200k, as long as the Russians aren't able to break out and cause a collapse then they've potentially got the mass to stabilise a line.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:36
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Libluini posted:Wait, what the hell? Russian government is a honeypot for the corrupt. Expect the same to applicable to the military. Alchenar posted:I think it's also worth noting that Ukraine only started mobilising the reserves at the start of the week. That process is going to be ongoing for some time. The regular army is 250k, the reserve is another ~200k, as long as the Russians aren't able to break out and cause a collapse then they've potentially got the mass to stabilise a line. Only time will tell, but I'm starting to suspect that the success of the defense lies heavily with NATO sharing intelligence. And I wouldn't be surprised is some "contractors" are still on the ground coordinating.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:37
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Xerxes17 posted:Well, one brutal theory is that they're using the low quality troops first to find, fix and wear down the Ukrainians before they send in the real troops later with a clear picture of where the enemy will be. This is almost certainly true given how much poo poo was amassed on the border but hasn't been used at all.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:38
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https://old.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/t1h7k4/ukrainian_soldiers_let_russian_captive_soldier_to/ A Russian POW phones his parents. A little bit , he has what appears to be a serious head wound but is lucid and talking.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:38
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SUNKOS posted:It's all on the borders though so what are they waiting for? We saw the satellite images of the forces and everything set up after footage of trains bringing all that armor for the invasion. Not enough fuel for the vehicles? Soldiers too hungry/sick to attack? I think everyone expected a huge coordinated push but who knows if it will ever happen? edit: maybe Putin even believes at least some his crap about how Ukraine is suffering under the yoke of a gay drug-addled jewish nazi and they couldn't wait to be rid of him, idk Zephro fucked around with this message at 11:40 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 11:38
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There's plenty of Russian propaganda outside of the SA echo chamber. Even on Western-dominated platforms you can find a lot of it. Most of it is focused domestically, though. Which, I would say, is a good sign still. As is the fact that they seem to be shying away from specifics. They haven't been able to announce the total victory they first expected, so they've clammed up, at least a little bit. The troll farms are still plenty active though, it's just hard to say how effective they are in places outside of our cultural/linguistic milieus.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:38
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Young Freud posted:There has been video of wrecked Ukrainian armor, so they're out there, as well as Ukrainian armor being captured, but the communications blackout is definitely keeping any appearances in video. I've seen I think 3 T-64 wrecks and that's all, none of their T-80 or T-84s have been sighted anywhere by internet sleuths
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Feb 26, 2022 11:39
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the popes toes posted:It's so loving weird. A rando Ukrainian drives up to a broke dick tank and says, "Dudes. You need a tow back to Moscow?" Like, who drives up to the occupiers and yuks it up? Ukrainians that's who. Alternative option: It was staged for the sake of making a funny video
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Feb 26, 2022 11:40
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Play posted:Please, please loving do it. Do it you pussies. As if any of us give a flying gently caress about billionaire/corporate money stored in Russia, shouldn't even be there anyways. This announcement is going to absolutely and totally collapse the Russian stock market. Like, down to dust and ashes. Just the announcement means foreign investment will avoid Russia for the next twenty years. anyway, this thread was interesting, first discussion I've seen of Russian state media in all this: https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1496741790187077632?s=20&t=EbnvtrZio0EJ45WdXCsVEw
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Feb 26, 2022 11:40
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Play posted:There's plenty of Russian propaganda outside of the SA echo chamber. Even on Western-dominated platforms you can find a lot of it. The target audience of Russian propaganda in western nations would mostly be on Telegram anyway, no point wasting effort posting it on twitter.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:41
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This announcement is going to absolutely and totally collapse the Russian stock market. Like, down to dust and ashes. Just the announcement means foreign investment will avoid Russia for the next twenty years. Big Iraqi Propaganda Minister vibes
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Feb 26, 2022 11:42
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Russian media has been reporting last night that the soldiers of Snake island (the go gently caress yourself guys) are alive and well, being treated fairly “Currently, they are being asked to sign a refusal to participate in hostilities. In the near future they will be returned to their families,”. I guess this confirms that the story is true, and that they are all dead.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:42
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TheRat posted:This is almost certainly true given how much poo poo was amassed on the border but hasn't been used at all. low quality troops like paratroopers and special forces?
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Feb 26, 2022 11:43
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TheRat posted:This is almost certainly true given how much poo poo was amassed on the border but hasn't been used at all. The Russians undoubtedly have lots of reserves, but leading with poo poo troops when the only way to avoid a quagmire is a lightning quick decapitation is so loving dumb I hope it's true. Wuxi posted:low quality troops like paratroopers and special forces? Also this.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:44
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Xerxes17 posted:Well, one brutal theory is that they're using the low quality troops first to find, fix and wear down the Ukrainians before they send in the real troops later with a clear picture of where the enemy will be. This can't really be the case though, or are you suggesting all those dead paratroopers were just the shittiest Russia had? TheRat posted:This is almost certainly true given how much poo poo was amassed on the border but hasn't been used at all. Almost certainly not. It would be suicidal. Just sacrificing large chunks of your army only works in video games, were you don't have to content with things like mutinies or cratering morale.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:46
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NTRabbit posted:I've seen I think 3 T-64 wrecks and that's all, none of their T-80 or T-84s have been sighted anywhere by internet sleuths There was a 15 minute video posted yesterday of someone driving past hundreds of destroyed/abandoned ukranian armour/support. The video claimed it was 15km long.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:46
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Slashrat posted:The stranded armor in the middle of nowhere puzzles me. I'm aware heavy military vehicles consume a lot of fuel, but presumably you know how much fuel you'll need to get somewhere, and if you need to refuel along the way to reach it. If you need to refuel, you'd presumably wait at some staging point for it before continuing, not just press on until you go completely dry all alone. Russian BTGs have less logistical resources than your average NATO or Western army equivalent. They're also heavily reliant on rail-based support for logistics. So you're relatively low on trucks, you haven't captured any major cities with open railways after the first two days, and the trucks you have are getting attacked along the highways. Combined that with a situation where a lot of those Russian troops being recruited at the end of the year with little training in a military where hazing and other kinds of abuse. Well, that can lead to your motorized troopers ending up stranded without fuel and not knowing what the gently caress to do, or not having initiative enough to question orders that will likely end up advancing further than your logistics can support. Imagine that you're a 19 year old Russian who has been systematically abused for three months in boot camp, then told to drive your BMP towards Kiev. Do you think you would tell your commanding officer that it makes no sense as you don't have the fuel to reach a staging point? A staging point that might not exist yet as the advance has failed to reach their tactical goals the last two days?
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Feb 26, 2022 11:47
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Libluini posted:
I get the feeling that's not a grand worry for the leadership.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:47
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Xerxes17 posted:Well, one brutal theory is that they're using the low quality troops first to find, fix and wear down the Ukrainians before they send in the real troops later with a clear picture of where the enemy will be. I don't believe this, it's not the complete picture anyways, that's for sure. That would only work if you had the elite troops directly following the cannon fodder, exploiting the intel and progress your weak troops have made. Attacking with a sizeable force (what is the estimate of engaged Russian troops at this moment? 80000?), fighting several battles, moving hundreds and hundreds of kilometers into enemy territory etc., just to probe the Ukrainian defenses AND then send in the elite, (which is still for some reason in the initial deployment area) days later, just to run into UA positions and formations that has been reinforced, rearmed, rested and probably repositioned, is top tier armchair general distilled dumbass.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:48
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Wuxi posted:low quality troops like paratroopers and special forces? People were saying before it started that russian paratroopers always did insane suicidal poo poo
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Feb 26, 2022 11:48
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SoggyBobcat posted:https://old.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/t1h7k4/ukrainian_soldiers_let_russian_captive_soldier_to/  That conversation. It sounds like his parents are thinking he went partying in Ukraine with friends and got into some trouble, not captured by the Ukrainian army for invading the country!
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Feb 26, 2022 11:48
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NTRabbit posted:Everyone is slowly finding out out that the Russian Army of today is not the Soviet Army of yesteryear. Looking more and more like a paper tiger. I'm 43 and have grown up being told how powerful the Soviets/Russians are. It's very strange that see this playing out the way it has so far. Strange but not bad. I'd love to see Ukraine get through this.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:48
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Really surprised at the lack of situational awareness of those Russians by the out of fuel vehicle. They're invading a country and I can barely see a weapon visible and nobody is on overwatch. They are acting like fresh recruits.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:49
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Libluini posted:Almost certainly not. It would be suicidal. Just sacrificing large chunks of your army only works in video games, were you don't have to content with things like mutinies or cratering morale. It would be a very stereotypically WW2-Russian thing to do, which means I'm sceptical as well. I think they're just loving up a lot of their attacks rather than purposely sacrificing troops
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Trump posted:rested This seems overly optimistic given the current situation.
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