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TheRat posted:This seems overly optimistic given the current situation. If the weak troops have been beaten and they have to wait for the super elite doomtroopers to mobilize and move their rear end into country, they might as well take a nap.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:50
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TheRat posted:I get the feeling that's not a grand worry for the leadership. Morale of your troops is a huge thing and young Russian conscripts in hostile territory don't really give a gently caress what "Leadership" thinks if they are miserable back home anyway. You can have all the tanks you want but if you don't have fuel or willibg people to drive them they aren't doing poo poo.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:50
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It could certainly have been more nuanced with distraction attacks by carried out by low quality troops in the east with a rapid decapitation by elite troops at Kyiv but that certainly doesn't seem to be the way things are panning out probably in large part due to the continued efficacy of Ukrainian air defences...
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Feb 26, 2022 11:50
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TheRat posted:I get the feeling that's not a grand worry for the leadership. "Suicidal" for their strategic aims, not individual soldiers, good god I hope your argument isn't now shifting to "Russian generals don't care if they win or not"
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Feb 26, 2022 11:50
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1496741790187077632?s=20&t=EbnvtrZio0EJ45WdXCsVEw A bit overdramatized for my taste in terms of the whole thread I don't think this whole sordid affair says much at all about America's place in the global order. It's also a weird thing to focus on, given America's relative lack of involvement. Guy's a little overexcited at what he sees as the big picture imho. He makes it seem like Russia has taken the lead on the world stage or something with this disgusting little war that has actually isolated Russia more than ever before
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Feb 26, 2022 11:51
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This announcement is going to absolutely and totally collapse the Russian stock market. Like, down to dust and ashes. Just the announcement means foreign investment will avoid Russia for the next twenty years. This is bullshit though, there was so incredibly much American bloodthirst and glee on TV prior to and during the initial Iraqi war that it was stomach turning. This is is history revisionism AF. The US media was euphoric at launching tomahawk missiles at cities.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:52
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Ukraine numbers, so grain of salt to say the least https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1497523038253989888 I would point out that it took weeks for Russian state media to firm up its talking points in Syria when the protests first started, and it looked like sympathy for the Syrian regime would be virtually zero since it was just legit protesters getting gunned down by the military. I would expect the narratives to develop and evolve a lot over the next week or two.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:52
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This announcement is going to absolutely and totally collapse the Russian stock market. Like, down to dust and ashes. Just the announcement means foreign investment will avoid Russia for the next twenty years. For what it's worth this is from Thursday morning, right at the start of the invasion, where it appeared that the initial strikes had cripped Ukraine's AA and the tanks were driving straight through and facing no resistance. A lot has changed since then.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:53
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Trump posted:If the weak troops have been beaten and they have to wait for the super elite doomtroopers to mobilize and move their rear end into country, they might as well take a nap. loving this^ Also can we please stop with fetishization of THE RUSSIAN HARDLINE SPECIAL FORCES already? It's kinda gross The glorious SPETNAZ and VDV are getting mopped up by Ukranian rando national guard if they are even landing at all. Seens like a super cool waste of life I guess You need more than your ELITE SUPER DOOM forces to win a war, and if they aren't eating or fueled guess what? You lose
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Feb 26, 2022 11:53
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Trump posted:If the weak troops have been beaten and they have to wait for the super elite doomtroopers to mobilize and move their rear end into country, they might as well take a nap. Yeah, but there appears to be pretty much constant fighting and I assume repositioning so there's not going to be a lot of room for siesta. Not to mention the mental drain of having to be constantly on alert. Libluini posted:I hope your argument isn't now shifting to "Russian generals don't care if they win or not" Pardon?
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Feb 26, 2022 11:53
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barbecue at the folks posted:A military dude I know noted that if social media is anything to go by, the Ukrainian main mechanized forces are also still nowhere to be seen. What has been going on is smaller local units fighting. It seems that UKR is being disciplined and biding its time and waiting for the decisive battles while keeping a communications blackout, which is probably a good strategy, seeing how Russia is not doing as hot as they obviously thought they would. There's a lot that remains unclear. There's some guy over in C-SPAM furiously arguing that the fact that Ukrainian mechanized forces haven't made a peep (especially around Kyiv) is proof that Russian preparatory bombardments and airstrikes have completely obliterated organized Ukrainian resistance and forced them to resort to no more than civilians with molotovs and AKs (as per Twitter) and that this is an incredible, unprecedented feat of Russian arms. Seems to cite how the airport defense was made by named, organized larger units but after that nothing, only smaller and more scattered formations named. Genuinely not sure but what's more likely? That's the Ukrainian military near Kyiv has actually been wholly crippled early strikes, or that they're simply observing radio silence and waiting for the right moment? Gut says the latter but I do have to wonder what the "right moment" is exactly if not an attack on Kyiv. Edit: Checking out C-SPAM is like stepping into another dimension, jesus. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Tomn fucked around with this message at 11:56 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 11:54
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TulliusCicero posted:Also can we please stop with fetishization of THE RUSSIAN HARDLINE SPECIAL FORCES already? It's kinda gross Who's doing this?
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Feb 26, 2022 11:54
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Saladman posted:Like I just remember the US military absolutely steamrolling Iraq and that even with fog of war we knew pretty quickly. Maybe not 3 days quickly though. It suggests that Russia is not steamrolling when they planned to be, and put much of their resources down for the quick takedown. If they were, they would have made it very boastfully obvious by now.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:55
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Affi posted:Really surprised at the lack of situational awareness of those Russians by the out of fuel vehicle. They're invading a country and I can barely see a weapon visible and nobody is on overwatch. A lot of them are fresh recruits.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:55
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lilljonas posted:This is bullshit though, there was so incredibly much American bloodthirst and glee on TV prior to and during the initial Iraqi war that it was stomach turning. This is is history revisionism AF. The US media was euphoric at launching tomahawk missiles at cities. Oh yeah absolutely I was just posting it for the report of what Russian state media was saying, which I hadn't seen elsewhere. I didn't even read most of the rest of that thread.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:55
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punishedkissinger posted:Im just finding out about Zelensky being an actor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vlb4z9ge5E Paddington says: no meter of Ukrainian land to the invader
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Feb 26, 2022 11:56
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TheRat posted:Yeah, but there appears to be pretty much constant fighting and I assume repositioning so there's not going to be a lot of room for siesta. Not to mention the mental drain of having to be constantly on alert. I was adressing the theory that the first wave of troops was basically used as cannon fodder, to gather intel for the properly trained and equipped troops to swoop in and defeat the Ukrainians. But as it is, that theory doesn't make a lick of sense.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:56
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The whole thing is loving bizarre. Like maybe Putin's nephew came up with the whole plan? Their official line is that there's no war or invasion, it's just a little police action. Ok so for that you'd need to push through with the best you have as quickly as possible. Instead they apparenty failed to neutralize Ukraine's limited AA, sent some paratroopers to their deaths, and green conscripts across the Belarus border? I realize it's still only day 3 and fighting in Kiev is terrible for Ukraine I'm no military expert, but I remember watching Generation Kill. The US sent 1st Recon Marines as the advance to scout and capture some strategic areas. They are lightly armed but like the opposite of fresh recruits. Then the conventional Army would roll in and secrure and clean up the rest. This seems like the opposite of that, when the objective of the whole thing shoudl've been to even more decisively capture the government and be greeted as liberators.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:56
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TheRat posted:Who's doing this? American media since the '80s. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 11:59 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 11:57
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fatherboxx posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vlb4z9ge5E The biggest "How it started/How it's going"
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Feb 26, 2022 11:58
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lilljonas posted:This is bullshit though, there was so incredibly much American bloodthirst and glee on TV prior to and during the initial Iraqi war that it was stomach turning. This is is history revisionism AF. The US media was euphoric at launching tomahawk missiles at cities. Yeah and to say nothing of the whole war on terror stuff. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6maL6gq6qME
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Feb 26, 2022 11:59
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Also there's no clear cut between experienced and fresh troops. Conscripts need experienced NCOs and enlisted troops to get anything done and elite units aren't numerous enough to even nearly subdue and hold a country the size of Ukraine. Sending in waves of fresh troops to soften up the enemy just gives the Ukrainian army time and desperately needed victories to boost morale
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Feb 26, 2022 12:00
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Dunno if I'm putting much stock in the 'Russians are sending conscripts in pajamas to the meat grinder' thing because it feels far too 'Nazi general memoir' for me. They might just be getting owned the good ol fashioned way.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:01
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Tomn posted:There's some guy over in C-SPAM furiously arguing that the fact that Ukrainian mechanized forces haven't made a peep (especially around Kyiv) is proof that Russian preparatory bombardments and airstrikes have completely obliterated organized Ukrainian resistance and forced them to resort to no more than civilians with molotovs and AKs (as per Twitter) and that this is an incredible, unprecedented feat of Russian arms. Seems to cite how the airport defense was made by named, organized larger units but after that nothing, only smaller and more scattered formations named. I don't believe that argument makes sense. Making a counterattack against a numerically superior enemy with your armored reserve close to the border when the enemy has more airplanes and attack helicopters, close to urban areas, is like, against every military rule of thumb. Whether or not Ukraine tanks are counter-punching incoming Russian armoured columns at the border says little about the existance or destruction of said Ukraine tanks IMHO.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:02
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Trump posted:I was adressing the theory that the first wave of troops was basically used as cannon fodder, to gather intel for the properly trained and equipped troops to swoop in and defeat the Ukrainians. But as it is, that theory doesn't make a lick of sense. Putin: "Yes yes, I will send wave after wave of my own men into die, to lure them into a false sense of security, then send in the commandos!" "Uh sir a lot of our men deserted and our commandos keep getting shot down" Putin: "Yes, yes all according to Keikaku"
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Feb 26, 2022 12:03
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mobby_6kl posted:The whole thing is loving bizarre. Like maybe Putin's nephew came up with the whole plan? Their official line is that there's no war or invasion, it's just a little police action. Ok so for that you'd need to push through with the best you have as quickly as possible. Instead they apparenty failed to neutralize Ukraine's limited AA, sent some paratroopers to their deaths, and green conscripts across the Belarus border? I realize it's still only day 3 and fighting in Kiev is terrible for Ukraine It seems like the plan was to use the day 1 bombardment to gain air superiority, push through and capture the Sea of Azov coast, capture the cities on the Eastern border, and drive down to encircle Kyiv to decapitate the Ukrainian government. What they've failed to do is destroy Ukrainian's AA threat (and indeed it seems like the air force is not only still flying but still winning battles), anticipate the strength of Ukrainian resistance at key choke points and within cities, and over-rely on green(ish) troops overwhelming defences. We probably won't know what Russia's actual plan of attack was for many years, who was involved in planning/authorising it, what their goals were etc. It seems naive at best and the opposition both at home and abroad might prove more costly than anticipated. But, as you say, it's only day 3. If they "win" the war in 2 weeks they'll still treat it as a victory, no matter how costly.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:04
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Affi posted:Really surprised at the lack of situational awareness of those Russians by the out of fuel vehicle. They're invading a country and I can barely see a weapon visible and nobody is on overwatch. Situational awareness has told them they're out of fuel, alone in a hostile country, what the gently caress are they gonna do?
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Feb 26, 2022 12:04
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Affi posted:Really surprised at the lack of situational awareness of those Russians by the out of fuel vehicle. They're invading a country and I can barely see a weapon visible and nobody is on overwatch. Some of the POW's have said they only got conscripted in December. So yes, fresh recruits.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:05
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cstang posted:I'm 43 and have grown up being told how powerful the Soviets/Russians are. It's very strange that see this playing out the way it has so far. Strange but not bad. I'd love to see Ukraine get through this. Trump posted:I don't believe this, it's not the complete picture anyways, that's for sure. Yeah there's a lot about this whole situation that's genuinely weird. These kinds of wars aren't supposed to happen any more. There's are a lot of reasons they haven't happened like this, not in Europe at least, in a very long time. Not just the existence of NATO and nuclear weapons but also just the massive deterrent factor of modern conventional weapons on a large scale; normally nobody wants to send a tank column into a countryside filled with Javelins. I have to guess that Putin expected things to go like the recapture of Afghanistan by the Taliban, or the Prague Spring or the 1956 hungarian revolution, not like the Winter War. Still though, even accounting for flawed intial assumptions, Russia seems to be making a lot of genuinely weird decisions, if they even are decisions and not just institutional inertia and incompetence. Let's keep airdropping more special forces into the airports without support, because that's a strategy that's clearly working!
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Feb 26, 2022 12:05
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So Russia finds the enemy by using dead recruits as a kind of flesh-powered radar, while Ukraine finds the enemy by piggybacking Nato's real-time satellite cover...?
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Feb 26, 2022 12:05
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https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921 Tweet thread, he surmises that the Ukrainians are deliberately allowing Russian mechanized units to pass and then hitting their supply convoys.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:07
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https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497520235179556864 The 30km figure is down from 'more than 50km' 19 hours ago.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:07
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SoggyBobcat posted:https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921 Well, that would help solve the riddle of Russian tank troops roaming the countryside on foot, bumming for gas money
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Feb 26, 2022 12:08
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Radical 90s Wizard posted:Situational awareness has told them they're out of fuel, alone in a hostile country, what the gently caress are they gonna do? There's another tank further up the road. They're probably in a convoy that's quite stretched out and was stopped. If they were in a hostile environment then you'd expect to see them have some guys set up covering the road, but most interactions with ukrainians and russians so far seem to be fairly nonconfrontational, so they may just feel comfortable enough to stand around lollygagging without bothering to see who's driving by.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:09
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SoggyBobcat posted:https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921 You don't say!? Apparently Twitter and Facebook is being blocked in Russia. VPNs are the only way around, and that's tentative. https://twitter.com/Shk0do/status/1497501866204225537?s=20&t=l11Yr7xU1p6oCyIixPFbTw
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Feb 26, 2022 12:09
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Affi posted:Really surprised at the lack of situational awareness of those Russians by the out of fuel vehicle. They're invading a country and I can barely see a weapon visible and nobody is on overwatch. I remember one of the early POW's being identified via social media as a 19 year old conscript who only joined at the end of December. He hadn't even fully completed his basic training.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:09
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah there's a lot about this whole situation that's genuinely weird. We might not know anything for years, but my bet is that NATO is sharing intelligence on a 1:1 basis with Ukraine, letting them have every kind of intel imaginable; radar, satellite, SIGINT (as evidenced by the River Joint popping up on flightradar), HUMINT, the works. And I'd also put money on NATO having people on the ground in C&C positions to help them out. If this is the case, the Ukrainians have a complete real time picture of everything going on, and this could answer how they still have an air force, how they get to intercept 2 troop carrying aircraft and why generally they are punching above what anyone expected.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:14
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lilljonas posted:This is bullshit though, there was so incredibly much American bloodthirst and glee on TV prior to and during the initial Iraqi war that it was stomach turning. This is is history revisionism AF. The US media was euphoric at launching tomahawk missiles at cities. https://twitter.com/trevortimm/status/850243379115941890 Some people shouldn't be allowed to listen to music, he's doing it wrong.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:15
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cr0y posted:I would lose all of my poo poo if they started bukkake'ing tanks with Ukrainian flag colors and said tanks just started running into each other blinded while they were trying to flee. Zelly's Heroes
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Feb 26, 2022 12:16
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SoggyBobcat posted:https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921 The bit about Russia not expecting such fierce resistance goes a long way to explaining why they thought sending in very inexperienced troops was an acceptable plan. They've clearly decided that isn't working and are apparently sending heavy guns and thermobaric weapons to the front which seems to suggest they're settling in for some prolonged urban warfare.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:17
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