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gay picnic defence posted:They've clearly decided that isn't working and are apparently sending heavy guns and thermobaric weapons to the front which seems to suggest they're settling in for some prolonged urban warfare. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497513126924853259 https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1497519335350452231 Were there so many Western journalists just wandering around openly filming Russian movements on the Russian side in 2014? Did Russia really think that this operation was going to be that much of a walk in the park?
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Feb 26, 2022 12:19
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Trump posted:We might not know anything for years, but my bet is that NATO is sharing intelligence on a 1:1 basis with Ukraine, letting them have every kind of intel imaginable; radar, satellite, SIGINT (as evidenced by the River Joint popping up on flightradar), HUMINT, the works. And I'd also put money on NATO having people on the ground in C&C positions to help them out. That's probably accurate but . . . does Russia not have satellites and signals intelligence of their own? why didn't Russia wait to invade with troops until after they had established air superiority? Was it just that Putin had ordered the tanks to roll in the moment he said "I have authorized a special action" or whatever on Russian television? Was that the extent of the plan? I mean, I remember how the Gulf War started and how the Iraq and Afghanistan war started, both, because I'm horribly old. In both cases there was like a month of just absurd levels of air and missile bombardment before *any* troops moved in.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:20
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Comstar posted:Some of the POW's have said they only got conscripted in December. A good chunk of more experienced soldiers could have been lost to Covid. We know it ravaged Russia and good care was probably next to impossible to come by.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:20
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Wasnt there just a series of tweets by an analyst that Russians failed to coordinate with fire support and they just rolled in prematurely.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:22
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Thermobaric weapons are among the things I wish didn't exist 
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Feb 26, 2022 12:22
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See, it's like the Russians aren't even prepared for any kind of resistance. They are either really sloppy, or they are just complacent because they haven't faced any sustained resistance, which might lend credibility to the argument that Ukraine is letting them go by and then trying to hit the supply lines. https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497530385273602053
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Feb 26, 2022 12:22
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497513126924853259 This has been building for months so there's been plenty of time for journalists to travel to be close to the action.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:24
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acidx posted:See, it's like the Russians aren't even prepared for any kind of resistance. They are either really sloppy, or they are just complacent because they haven't faced any sustained resistance, which might lend credibility to the argument that Ukraine is letting them go by and then trying to hit the supply lines. Holy poo poo. Lets all appreciate this absolute unit who is walking up to armed invading soldiers and berating them like schoolchildren. That takes guts.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:28
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https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1497531381122940930
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Feb 26, 2022 12:30
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gay picnic defence posted:This has been building for months so there's been plenty of time for journalists to travel to be close to the action. and months and months of reasons, like COVID, to monitor and restrict foreign journo movements at least that's certainly what Beijing would've done; I don't know if contemporary Russia is like that unless one thinks it's just fine for CNN to be livetweeting exactly what materiel is moving to the front because ha ha what are the chances of that being necessary?
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Feb 26, 2022 12:30
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The fog of war isn't just on twitter, between the massive scale of operations and Ukrainian attacks on logistics it wouldn't be surprising for a unit to not get deliveries or even just be forgotten and lost in the shuffle. It doesn't mean that Russian logistics are in shambles. They've been planning this for months, i'm sure they have a lot of stockpiles near the border, and lots of trucks too.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:30
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That's probably accurate but . . . does Russia not have satellites and signals intelligence of their own? One reason could be that Russia underestimated Ukraine. One reason could be that they gambled on a quick rush to take Kiev that got stalled much faster than they expected. One reason could be that they expected that their initial bombardment would have more effect than it had. Also, Russia is not the US. The US has a metric fuckton more material than all other armies in the world combined. The US can basically fart away $2 million missiles where most of them hit tents and not care. Russia doesn't have that level of resources. Also, they are probably acting with restrictions to not make the invasion look too bad, which is working against them. For the sattelite and opsec, Russia is the part that is moving troops. Moving troops are vulnerable troops, and seeing where and when they move makes them targets. That's one way NATO intelligence support can make the Ukrainians first better than expected. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 12:33 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 12:31
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That's probably accurate but . . . does Russia not have satellites and signals intelligence of their own? This is purely speculation from a layman, but I think NATO would have the upper hand by a wide margin when it comes to warfare on that level. The US alone spends more on intelligence, than Russia spends on their armed forces. We don't know, and probably never will have a clear picture, what kind of shenanigans is taking place in that part of the battle space. But i don't expect NATO to be purely passive. Perfect intel combined with Russian overconfidence would explain a lot of what we have seen. And just as a side note, the ground invasion of the 2003 Iraq war started at the same time as the official air campaign. In truth the US had been bombing Iraq for months before the tanks started rolling.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:31
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EvilHawk posted:
Oh definitely, but I mean the CCP maintains they 'won' the Sino-Vietnamese War despite racking up ~half the US's entire wartime casualties in the span of a few weeks before withdrawing. Vietnam kept merrily running Cambodia directly for like another 20 years. Edit: I don't mean to say I expect Ukraine to pull a Vietnam on Russia, or avoid losing at least some of its territory, but as others have said, it can make Russia look weak and ineffectual, which is generally not conducive to strongmen. That's all the potential silver lining I can really see here :-/ Ethics_Gradient fucked around with this message at 12:44 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 12:34
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acidx posted:https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497513843962089475 I'd be very curious to know what individuals or countries outside of former the Warsaw Pact even have significant holdings in Rubles, if any. Or RE holdings, or anything really. Sure, major corporations like Microsoft and Exxon are going to have some amount on hand to pay bills on a day to day basis, payroll, etc., but I'd be utterly shocked if anyone other than Russian nationals had significant currency holdings in country. Stocks may be a different question - I'm sure investment banks all have a branch or trading desk covering that, but again, liquidity is so high and this invasion was so well known I'd be willing to bet most of those positions were liquidated weeks ago (or put in a position to liquidate).
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Feb 26, 2022 12:37
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acidx posted:See, it's like the Russians aren't even prepared for any kind of resistance. They are either really sloppy, or they are just complacent because they haven't faced any sustained resistance, which might lend credibility to the argument that Ukraine is letting them go by and then trying to hit the supply lines. Random Ukrainian civilians going up to Russian soldiers and scolding them while they stand around awkwardly like naughty schoolchildren seems to be a running theme. Has this happened much in recent wars? I guess the similarity in language and culture makes it easier to do that than for, say, a random Iraqi to berate a US Marine with much effect.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:37
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Setbacks or not, unless something changes there is no indication to me that Ukraine can hold out for any substantial length of time. Russia still has plenty of personnel, armor, materiel, missiles, artillery, and everything else they need to conquer Ukraine. They can also get more violent and indiscriminate, and use more powerful weapons than they have. And I feel like putin is in so deep that they will absolutely use almost any necessary strategy if the somewhat more merciful methods they have shown til now don't bear results. Play fucked around with this message at 12:41 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 12:38
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https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1497525665561812992?t=e7MAywufTTal4urBNifuDw&s=19 Spicy
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Feb 26, 2022 12:38
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That's probably accurate but . . . does Russia not have satellites and signals intelligence of their own? They can't. Iraq was a lone failed state with zero air force facing a coition of world powers. The US could take its time deleting its defenses and every concentration of forces for weeks before moving in. Anything destroyed was gone and not being replaced. Ukraine is larger, has WAY better infrastructure, and allies. If Russia sat down to bomb key stuff from afar, within 4 days Ukraine would be getting so much aid that it would negate almost any damage inflicted. So they "had" to go in quick with the ground troops, try and cut supply lines and scatter opposition forces, before the country could be reinforced into a lump of iron. Even if that meant exposing their own forces to harm. Of course, the smarter move would be NOT loving INVADING, or just holding the two key provinces for a fait accompli, but for some reason they decided to go for broke.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:40
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Play posted:
Yeah i can't imagine him ever being willing to take the humiliation of backing off.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:41
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Play posted:Setbacks or not, unless something changes there is no indication to me that Ukraine can hold out for any substantial length of time. Russia still has plenty of personnel, armor, materiel, missiles, artillery, and everything else they need to conquer Ukraine. They can also get more violent and indiscriminate, and use more powerful weapons than they have. Russia should be able to win the invasion eventually because of sheer numbers. This is not the same as winning the WAR. With outside assistance Ukrainians can kill Russians indefinitely if they want to fight a guerilla war.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:42
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barbecue at the folks posted:A military dude I know noted that if social media is anything to go by, the Ukrainian main mechanized forces are also still nowhere to be seen. What has been going on is smaller local units fighting. It seems that UKR is being disciplined and biding its time and waiting for the decisive battles while keeping a communications blackout, which is probably a good strategy, seeing how Russia is not doing as hot as they obviously thought they would. There's a lot that remains unclear. i think part of it is fog of war and opsec and nobody filming tiktoks around the areas where most combat happens. that said, i wouldn't be too optimistic as to how the ukrainian forces are faring, from what i can gather from more pro-russian telegram channels  i think some videos of lost ukrainian armour and logistics convoys have already been posted here. not to mention some (alleged) friendly fire incidentsalso, i'm kinda leaning towards the whole "everyone gets an ak" thing being a very bad idea - i've already seen some reports about friendly fire incidents and shootings (again, in pro-russian sources, so grain of salt and all that, but i honestly wouldn't be surprised if at least some of these reports are true) with all that said though, i'm honestly baffled with the overall russian armed forces' performance on display, and their ops planning in particular. frankly, it all seems tremendously optimistic at best and downright criminally negligent at worst. the compete failure of their "information warfare" is odd too - it seems like they make almost no attempts at actually controlling the narrative anywhere except for the domestic audience also yeah, wouldn't be surprised if nato
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Feb 26, 2022 12:43
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Tomn posted:Has this happened much in recent wars? There is a pretty cool scene in the movie "Armadillo", which is about a danish army company deployed to Helmand province in 2009, where some young kids punks the soldiers, clearly not giving a gently caress about anything, telling them how much taliban is going to kick their rear end. "Armadillo" is a cool little movie, check it if you can.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:44
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497513126924853259 Using thermobaric weapons in urban areas is practically speaking a genocidal act, and will more than likely trigger direct NATO involvement.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:45
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Wibla posted:Using thermobaric weapons in urban areas is practically speaking a genocidal act, and will more than likely trigger direct NATO involvement. No it won't.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:45
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Play posted:Setbacks or not, unless something changes there is no indication to me that Ukraine can hold out for any substantial length of time. Russia still has plenty of personnel, armor, materiel, missiles, artillery, and everything else they need to conquer Ukraine. They can also get more violent and indiscriminate, and use more powerful weapons than they have. The more protracted the war is, and the more barbaric the Russian forces become, the worse the pressure is going to be on the international community to take steps to punish Russia. Italy already had to back down on keeping Russia in SWIFT. The hits are gonna keep coming. The way I see it getting these consequences to the point they are untenable for the Russian state is Ukraine's only hope to remain independent. https://twitter.com/SiCarswell/status/1497536873312493574
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Feb 26, 2022 12:45
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Wibla posted:Using thermobaric weapons in urban areas is practically speaking a genocidal act, and will more than likely trigger direct NATO involvement. Why do you think it would trigger NATO involvement, when Ukraine is not a NATO member?
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Feb 26, 2022 12:48
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Fortunately it seems the Ukrainian air force retains some capability and they most likely have access to the kind of Intel that will allow them to identify and locate thermobaric weapons. Hopefully they get reduced to a lump of molten steel on the side of the road before long.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:49
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Tomn posted:Random Ukrainian civilians going up to Russian soldiers and scolding them while they stand around awkwardly like naughty schoolchildren seems to be a running theme. Has this happened much in recent wars? I guess the similarity in language and culture makes it easier to do that than for, say, a random Iraqi to berate a US Marine with much effect. There were plenty of incidents of US soldiers in Iraq shooting people who approached them.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:52
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SoggyBobcat posted:https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921 It's almost like the Ukrainians are getting precise battlefield intelligence to enable them to dodge the heavy combat teams and pinpoint the supply convoys, perhaps some sort of STAR Journeying through the sky
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Feb 26, 2022 12:53
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EvilHawk posted:Why do you think it would trigger NATO involvement, when Ukraine is not a NATO member? It does raise the question what the international reaction will be if Russia decides to go total war and starts leveling cities to try and force a surrender?
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Feb 26, 2022 12:53
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gay picnic defence posted:There were plenty of incidents of US soldiers in Iraq shooting people who approached them. Lol that Russian 19 year old conscripts have better trigger discipline and cool than American forces, but yeah.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:55
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Wibla posted:Using thermobaric weapons in urban areas is practically speaking a genocidal act, and will more than likely trigger direct NATO involvement. WW3 isn't happening no matter how badly some posters here seem to want it to.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:55
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gay picnic defence posted:There were plenty of incidents of US soldiers in Iraq shooting people who approached them. Well then let's momentarily admire the present restraint of Russian troops, but cynically await the reveal of protracted lethality regarding their presence
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Feb 26, 2022 12:55
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acidx posted:The more protracted the war is, and the more barbaric the Russian forces become, the worse the pressure is going to be on the international community to take steps to punish Russia. Italy already had to back down on keeping Russia in SWIFT. The hits are gonna keep coming. The way I see it getting these consequences to the point they are untenable for the Russian state is Ukraine's only hope to remain independent. I do worry that we are about to enter an extended period of everyone saying loudly that they support exclusion from SWIFT but for mysterious reasons it never happens.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:55
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lilljonas posted:Lol that Russian 19 year old conscripts have better trigger discipline and cool than American forces, but yeah. To be fair to the Americans there were plenty of suicide bombers who 'just wanted to talk' so I can understand them being pretty edgy when a guy ignores their instructions to stop.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:56
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lilljonas posted:Lol that Russian 19 year old conscripts have better trigger discipline and cool than American forces, but yeah. People in Ukraine speak the same or similar language, and cultures are very close, it is impossible to otherise and dehumanize the same way that Russians did with Chechens (formally a part of Russia, deep inside its territory) - unless you are a Grad or Iskander operator, of course
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Feb 26, 2022 13:00
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gay picnic defence posted:To be fair to the Americans there were plenty of suicide bombers who 'just wanted to talk' so I can understand them being pretty edgy when a guy ignores their instructions to stop. Also I suspect US soldiers would have a very different attitude about how to interact with locals if the cities they were invading were Canadian. It's harder to dehumanize the enemy when they are so similar to you.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:01
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Based on my visit to the border yesterday, and not giving away much due to op sec, I can say I have a pretty good idea how “supplies” are coming into Ukraine and can confirm that they in fact do.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:02
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Mokotow posted:Based on my visit to the border yesterday, and not giving away much due to op sec, I can say I have a pretty good idea how weapons and supplies are coming into Ukraine and can confirm that they in fact do. You might have missed it because of he excursion, but there were official tweets showing the column of polish trucks delivering supplies.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:04
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