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steinrokkan posted:don't know how much of this is mind games: All of it. Even if it was 100% accurate - all of it.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:26
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Are there unofficial volunteer brigades showing up in Ukraine? Like American, British and French nationals fought in the Spanish civil war and in WW1 Americans fought on behalf of the French as pilots. Technically since it’s private citizens it doesn’t count as the Americans being directly involved.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:28
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KitConstantine posted:The UK sprang for express delivery apparently. Not just missiles but the battle dress, vest, and helmet seem to all be of UK origin.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:28
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Kraftwerk posted:Are there unofficial volunteer brigades showing up in Ukraine? Definitely individuals but probably soon enough in force.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:29
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Big fuel depot in Russian-occupied Rovenki went up in flames earlier today. This is bad for Russian resupply. 200 tons of diesel up in smoke https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1497649749859651587?t=-iA1QqCbj4zYpQgp_02Edg&s=19 https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1497652395333066757?t=z5n-xpKmzIYJnGDbfv8pVA&s=19
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Feb 26, 2022 20:30
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Kraftwerk posted:Are there unofficial volunteer brigades showing up in Ukraine? Ukrainian embassy in Israel is actively recruiting volunteer forces. There was a tweet/email about it a bit ago. Its going to spool up.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:30
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Vahakyla posted:Not just missiles but the battle dress, vest, and helmet seem to all be of UK origin. I hope they’re doing lovely impressions of British accents.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:31
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Kraftwerk posted:Are there unofficial volunteer brigades showing up in Ukraine? National intelligence services monitor any individuals they suspect to leave/enter the country as foreign fighters and yes some have confirmed people leaving to fight in Ukraine.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:31
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Definitely individuals but probably soon enough in force. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10554659/Brothers-arms-Foreigners-travel-join-Ukrainians-fight-against-Vladimir-Putins-army.html
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Feb 26, 2022 20:31
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Yeah, and there were at least couple Syrian resistance fighters recruiting online and asking about how to get to Ukraine to join he army.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:32
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I imagine there’s thousands of people in Eastern Europe who are more than happy to go shoot at Russian soldiers.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:33
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Abu TOW sounded game last night.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:35
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:I imagine there’s thousands of people in Eastern Europe who are more than happy to go shoot at Russian soldiers. European countries usually don't look kindly at their citizens running off to join foreign militaries. Various adventurers got into trouble because they went to fight for the separatists the last time. Maybe the govts would be willing to close their eyes in this instance, though I can only imagine the size of the shitstorm Russia would start if they ended up capturing or killing a bunch of NATO / EU citizens.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:37
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KitConstantine posted:Big fuel depot in Russian-occupied Rovenki went up in flames earlier today. This is bad for Russian resupply. 200 tons of diesel up in smoke I wonder how much of this is Ukrainian special forces vs whatever black ops US team is currently in theater.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:40
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Look, honest question: is there any chance Putan just bails? Like, clearly this situation sucks and whatever he was trying to get out of it isn't happening how it was supposed to, is there a chance he'll just give up and take the L? Like, today or tomorrow? Is there any precedent for something like that happening
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Feb 26, 2022 20:40
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Oh god. https://twitter.com/eramshaw/status/1497597391838588935?s=20&t=XHgQK7ab45BsvM24S1MP6w
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Feb 26, 2022 20:40
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:Look, honest question: is there any chance Putan just bails? Like, clearly this situation sucks and whatever he was trying to get out of it isn't happening how it was supposed to, is there a chance he'll just give up and take the L? Like, today or tomorrow? Is there any precedent for something like that happening In a word, no.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:40
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steinrokkan posted:European countries usually don't look kindly at their citizens running off to join foreign militaries. Various adventurers got into trouble because they went to fight for the separatists the last time. Maybe the govts would be willing to close their eyes in this instance, though I can only imagine the size of the shitstorm Russia would start if they ended up capturing or killing a bunch of NATO / EU citizens. Under what law would it be illegal for say, a Bulgarian citizen to go fight in Ukraine, in his own country?
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Feb 26, 2022 20:41
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:Look, honest question: is there any chance Putan just bails? Like, clearly this situation sucks and whatever he was trying to get out of it isn't happening how it was supposed to, is there a chance he'll just give up and take the L? Like, today or tomorrow? Is there any precedent for something like that happening He hasnt left himself an out and his behavior around negotiations means people are unlikely to try to give him one. He can bail but hes probably done for back in Russia. His best bet and likely current plan is to take Ukraine and then hunker down and deal with the domestic and economic issues as best he can.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:42
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:Look, honest question: is there any chance Putan just bails? Like, clearly this situation sucks and whatever he was trying to get out of it isn't happening how it was supposed to, is there a chance he'll just give up and take the L? Like, today or tomorrow? Is there any precedent for something like that happening He can't. He either has to win or he's going to get removed from power. He's dug himself a really big hole and he doesn't have any way out of this mess he's created for himself.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:43
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:Look, honest question: is there any chance Putan just bails? Like, clearly this situation sucks and whatever he was trying to get out of it isn't happening how it was supposed to, is there a chance he'll just give up and take the L? Like, today or tomorrow? Is there any precedent for something like that happening He will bail only when his army is exhausted and his generals mutiny - and then only to save his own hide.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:44
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:Look, honest question: is there any chance Putan just bails? Like, clearly this situation sucks and whatever he was trying to get out of it isn't happening how it was supposed to, is there a chance he'll just give up and take the L? Like, today or tomorrow? Is there any precedent for something like that happening There absolutely is. The tougher the resistance, the harsher the sanctions, the more united the response - the more likely it gets.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:44
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Probably the best recent example of "giving up" on a war is Erdogan and his plan to defeat Rojava. He "gave up", but only after essentially negotiating a huge buffer zone to be occupied by Turkey and after the Kurds allowed Russia and Syria to enter their territory. In that case he achieved his real goals, even if he stopped short of his stated goals. I can't see Putin giving up without achieving SOMETHING. Though the cost of achieving even a minimal set of goals may end up outweighted by the sanctions.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:44
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ravenkult posted:Under what law would it be illegal for say, a Bulgarian citizen to go fight in Ukraine, in his own country? None. However he might be persecuted for warcrimes when he returns or the very least, put under surveillance if he's considered a domestic risk (terrorism etc.).
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Feb 26, 2022 20:44
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Read my username and stop doom-fantasizing about WWIII please, thread.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:45
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:Look, honest question: is there any chance Putan just bails? Like, clearly this situation sucks and whatever he was trying to get out of it isn't happening how it was supposed to, is there a chance he'll just give up and take the L? Like, today or tomorrow? Is there any precedent for something like that happening If Putin stages it right he could just take the Donbas and retreat out of western Ukraine with a bit of face saved.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:46
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:Look, honest question: is there any chance Putan just bails? Like, clearly this situation sucks and whatever he was trying to get out of it isn't happening how it was supposed to, is there a chance he'll just give up and take the L? Like, today or tomorrow? Is there any precedent for something like that happening Giving up would crumple the entire strongman image he's been building for years. There's no gain for it, the west would ease some sanctions at best, and he'd lose a ton of his domestic and foreign support for looking weak.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:47
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He's been twenty years building to this moment. Fifteen years of military adventures and reforms, more than two decades strengthening his hold over the security services to clamp down on dissent. Years of financial measures to build up a warchest to endure the expected sanctions. At least eight years of operations in Ukraine itself in prep. Putin's entire legacy is at stake in Ukraine. His plan was to install a puppet government and complete a trifecta (quadfecta?) of the USSR's core territory in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine as dependent client states that can be reintegrated over the next decade. He'd be the man who pulled Russia back from the brink and reclaimed its position as a great power able to go toe to toe with the west.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:47
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The Kingfish posted:If Putin stages it right he could just take the Donbas and retreat out of western Ukraine with a bit of face saved. Paradoxically, based on the maps of reported fighting, Donbas is one area where he's not moved ahead. Probably because he needs the Donbas republics and their claimed territory to remain pristine for propaganda purposes, I guess?
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Feb 26, 2022 20:48
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Since this has such a global impact, it feels strange there isn't more Russian western consumption dip and PR comms. Even the sovs tried. Not even trying seems different.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:48
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I suppose he could take a page out of Trump and just bluntly deny he’s even sent troops to Ukraine. “These are not my guys I dunno what you talking about. That speech I made was perfect!”
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Feb 26, 2022 20:49
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Cimber posted:He can't. He either has to win or he's going to get removed from power. He's dug himself a really big hole and he doesn't have any way out of this mess he's created for himself. Him getting removed is going to be fuuuuun. From what I understand, he has spent so long consolidating power in Russia around himself that if he did leave power no one is going to know what to do over there. Technically there's a chain of succession there but still. I remember years ago he disappeared for like a weekend without telling anyone and it was a big story.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:50
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the popes toes posted:Since this has such a global impact, it feels strange there isn't more Russian western consumption dip and PR comms. Even the sovs tried. Not even trying seems different. The observation made is that it's all entirely directed at Russian audiences. But it's largely not working either.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:50
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steinrokkan posted:Paradoxically, based on the maps of reported fighting, Donbas is one area where he's not moved ahead. Probably because he needs the Donbas republics and their claimed territory to remain pristine for propaganda purposes, I guess? It's ironically where Ukraine's heaviest and best fighting forces were deployed right before the war. They're facing significant Russian forces so they probably can't easily redeploy, but it's also where Russia would expect the hardest fight if they attack. Notice the big movements from Crimea and Kharkiv can essentially be seen as an attempt to cut off all these forces.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:50
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Morrow posted:He's been twenty years building to this moment. Fifteen years of military adventures and reforms, more than two decades strengthening his hold over the security services to clamp down on dissent. Years of financial measures to build up a warchest to endure the expected sanctions. At least eight years of operations in Ukraine itself in prep. Yeah that dream is hosed now because he made the same mistakes Brezhnev and yeltsen made apparently.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:52
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BigRed0427 posted:Him getting removed is going to be fuuuuun. From what I understand, he has spent so long consolidating power in Russia around himself that if he did leave power no one is going to know what to do over there. Technically there's a chain of succession there but still. It will be the death of Alexander the Great only this time the Diadochi will have a bunch of nukes in their back pockets! It is a very intriguing question though: Russia without Putin is something I can’t easily picture. I was born in 1990, and I don’t think I started paying attention to the global stage of the world until 9/11.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:53
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Cimber posted:He can't. He either has to win or he's going to get removed from power. He's dug himself a really big hole and he doesn't have any way out of this mess he's created for himself. Putin "wins" with an occupation of a pissed off perpetual insurgency in Kyiv that lasts months while Russia is economically bled dry by sanctions and removal from most international trade. Meanwhile NATO just guaranteed its existence for another generation or two and gets to put some of its giant pile of Russian-killers to use for field testing.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:54
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Young Freud posted:The observation made is that it's all entirely directed at Russian audiences. But it's largely not working either.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:55
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Any chance REFORGER comes back or something like it?
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Feb 26, 2022 20:56
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Seamonster posted:Any chance REFORGER comes back or something like it? Yeah, but I don't know how to say REFORGER in Polish
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Feb 26, 2022 20:57
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