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Paracausal posted:https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1497695073982681093 Targeted and limited. Likely only previously sanctioned banks. So, again, not nuclear, limited and for my money, only symbolic
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Feb 26, 2022 23:18
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EU showing signs of having a spine... What a time to be alive
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Feb 26, 2022 23:19
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Telsa Cola posted:Im guessing here but I imagine Germany didnt want to have their gas cut off. I would imagine if Merkel was still in charge things would be different. Apparently germany is refusing to sell any arms to Ukraine as they feel its 'too late'.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:20
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the popes toes posted:Targeted and limited. Likely only previously sanctioned banks. So, again, not nuclear, limited and for my money, only symbolic You aren’t understanding. Freezing the Central Banks ability to liquidate its assets is a thousand times more consequential than a SWIFT ban. The entire Russian financial system is likely to collapse, people. Run on the banks, Great Depression stuff.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:20
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ZombieLenin posted:Holy poo poo, and it’s not the SWIFT ban I’m holy making GBS threads. If the United States follows suit, the Russian economy was just destroyed. US is mentioned as one of the countries in that tweet. The real question is what banks. It could be anything from a meaningless gesture to financial ruin.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:20
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the popes toes posted:Targeted and limited. Likely only previously sanctioned banks. So, again, not nuclear, limited and for my money, only symbolic no, they're also loving up the central bank , seizing individual assets, banning passport sales. This is big, even if maybe a few banks will still be able to operate through SWIFT. Nobody has said a thing about which banks they're targeting. https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1497696413492334599?s=20&t=EAMsBd7lrduH-aPCstAQTQ
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Feb 26, 2022 23:20
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ZombieLenin posted:Holy poo poo, and it’s not the SWIFT ban I’m holy making GBS threads. If the United States follows suit, the Russian economy was just destroyed. Yeah, no. Putin isn't going anywhere.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:20
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ranbo das posted:US is mentioned as one of the countries in that tweet. The real question is what banks. It could be anything from a meaningless gesture to financial ruin. I mean if the freezing of central bank assets is the main drop, then it doesn't matter, does it?
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Feb 26, 2022 23:21
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the popes toes posted:Targeted and limited. Likely only previously sanctioned banks. So, again, not nuclear, limited and for my money, only symbolic They’re directly targeting 700bn USD war chest Putin has to prop Russian economy through this. This is targeted in the same way repeatedly being kicked in the balls is targeted. Also sanctions against selling citizenships to oligarchs.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:21
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Oligarchs about to have to get creative
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Feb 26, 2022 23:21
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steinrokkan posted:EU showing signs of having a spine... What a time to be alive They limited the ban. This was them showing their spine is floppy.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:21
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As I understand it Russia is relying on those central bank assets to insulate itself from western sanctions?
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Feb 26, 2022 23:21
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ZombieLenin posted:You aren’t understanding. Freezing the Central Banks ability to liquidate its assets is a thousand times more consequential than a SWIFT ban. Ah, no I didn't. Thanks.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:22
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ZombieLenin posted:You aren’t understanding. Freezing the Central Banks ability to liquidate its assets is a thousand times more consequential than a SWIFT ban. The foreign assets were built up by Putin as a way to make it take longer for Russia to feel the effects of sanctions. If he can’t liquidate them it makes it harder to do things like pay for the war. Or the welfare spending that maintains older Russians support
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Feb 26, 2022 23:22
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ZombieLenin posted:You aren’t understanding. Freezing the Central Banks ability to liquidate its assets is a thousand times more consequential than a SWIFT ban. Yea i have a feeling its gonna be the 90s all over again after this is over.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:22
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Cimber posted:I would imagine if Merkel was still in charge things would be different. Apparently germany is refusing to sell any arms to Ukraine as they feel its 'too late'. They seem to have changed their position https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1497698738122502157?t=ODJm-CzteJUOmXP1LxIAfA&s=19
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Feb 26, 2022 23:23
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For all its starring roles in propaganda, has the Azov Battalion even done anything? Are they even still an active formation?
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Feb 26, 2022 23:23
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Tomberforce posted:As I understand it Russia is relying on those central bank assets to insulate itself from western sanctions? Yes. The game plan is that they have 663 or something billions in cash-like assets, and low debt exposure. Well, they had them until now. TheRat posted:They limited the ban. This was them showing their spine is floppy. They agreed to CB and the ban even in limited fashion. This is massive escalation to where they’re comfortable at being.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:23
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KitConstantine posted:They seem to have changed their position This is like playing HOI4 with historical AI turned off.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:24
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Cimber posted:I would imagine if Merkel was still in charge things would be different. Apparently germany is refusing to sell any arms to Ukraine as they feel its 'too late'. That is not true at all. The CDU is considerably softer on Russia than the Greens, who currently have the ministry of foreign affairs.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:24
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Every day Russia is losing tens of billions of dollars. How long will this go on? How long will they spend? Russia is literally a cod villain at this point. Just way worse. Russian morale has been on a significant downturn even before the invasion started, looking at their day one objectives through the Periscope of what has happened so far shows that most of these troops were in no fighting shape. They were musteree by their commanders like the loving NKVD half sick half drunk and hungry. I perceive the bridges and railways were seeing destroyed as the Ukrainian military sabotaging behind the Russian forces. Essentially trapping them. While the Russian military can airdrop supplies it's nothing like having Bridges and rail supplies coming in. So strangulation of fuel will stop The Invasion once again. Ukraine needs to have one decisive victory to define the battlefield.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:24
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Flesnolk posted:For all its starring roles in propaganda, has the Azov Battalion even done anything? Are they even still an active formation? AFAIK they have been always positioned in Donbas, which has seen no substantial action despite being the flashpoint of this whole debacle.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:24
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Flesnolk posted:For all its starring roles in propaganda, has the Azov Battalion even done anything? Are they even still an active formation? They’re an active formation of about 1000 people, yeah. If I recall correctly, they’re stationed in Mariupol’, and have unlikely seen much combat in the recent days.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:25
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Flesnolk posted:For all its starring roles in propaganda, has the Azov Battalion even done anything? Are they even still an active formation? It's based in Mariupol/Odessa which haven't had much information coming out regarding Ukrainian military actions as the Kyiv area.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:25
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TheRat posted:Yeah, no. Putin isn't going anywhere. People were sure there would be no invasion only a few days ago
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Feb 26, 2022 23:25
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steinrokkan posted:I mean if the freezing of central bank assets is the main drop, then it doesn't matter, does it? It does matter, but not in the way Freezing the Central bank does. Russia just lost the $620b in assets it needed to float the economy through this. The Ruble is now completely isolated, there will be runs on the banks, money will have to be printed. You think the Ruble collapse was spectacular before? Foreign currency will be fought over, companies won’t be able to pay each other, this is now an unmitigated disaster for Russia.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:26
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Every day Russia is losing tens of billions of dollars.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:26
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I never thought in my wildest dreams that Putin's response to his fee-fees being hurt would be to turn Kyiv into Dresden What a complete loving lunatic. Russia is committing a massive atrocity and should be considered a rogue state until his head is on a pike. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 23:27
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steinrokkan posted:AFAIK they have been always positioned in Donbas, which has seen no substantial action despite being the flashpoint of this whole debacle. How could it when it doesn’t have the famed Hostomel airport built on the site of Kyivan Rus’ coronations?!?
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Feb 26, 2022 23:27
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ZombieLenin posted:It does matter, but not in the way Freezing the Central bank does. Russia just lost the $620b in assets it needed to float the economy through this. inshallah
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Feb 26, 2022 23:27
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Cimber posted:I would imagine if Merkel was still in charge things would be different. Apparently germany is refusing to sell any arms to Ukraine as they feel its 'too late'. They just approved shipment of 1k ATMs and 500 Stinger AA missiles. Which is fairly impressive amount. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 23:41 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 23:27
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Every day Russia is losing tens of billions of dollars. Dude, it’s day 3. We have limited information. I know it’s tempting to write the ending but we’re a long way from that.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:27
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https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87-are-we-on-the-brink This article does explore Russia’s wartime economy, for the curious.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:27
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Russia seems to have prepared for a big level of sanctions for years. In that case, have some more.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:28
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:How could it when it doesn’t have the famed Hostomel airport built on the site of Kyivan Rus’ coronations?!? Putin is searching for the Four Rubies of the Rurik Crown which when combined will make the otherwise immortal Nazis of Ukraine vulnerable to sword attacks
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Feb 26, 2022 23:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They’re an active formation of about 1000 people, yeah. If I recall correctly, they’re stationed in Mariupol’, and have unlikely seen much combat in the recent days. There was a rumor the other day that they just straight up hosed off immediately after the initial invasion and the leadership is in Poland or somewhere.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:29
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BigglesSWE posted:Are we falling into the same trap? When we hear of fierce resistance in Kiev, heavy losses among Russians, are we simply getting the (to us) positive gaps in a darker hole? Are the Russians truly hurting, or is it wishful thinking from the local and international press corp? I don't know. It's hard to know. I am not really 100% buying that the Russians are stumbling badly narrative. 4 days into the invasion credible reports have Russians on the outskirts of Kyiv coming from their attack through the Chernobyl sector. We know the Ukrainians did blow one of the bridges over the Teteriv 2 days ago so them ending today's fighting on Kyiv's outskirts is a pace of advance that is equal to what the Americans managed in Iraqi Freedom. Baghdad took around 3 days of fighting to secure for the US Army and Kyiv is around the same size geographically so I am sure you are going to hear stories in the days to come about heroic Ukrainian resistance holding out for days when it is entirely possible the Russians are making good progress into the capital. The British MOD has speculated that other major Ukrainian cities in the East that were on their "day 1" objective lists are still not taken. This is only speculation on their part though. We have no idea whether the Russian advances in this area are merely to try and hold whatever Ukrainian forces in those sectors from retreating back to Kyiv to aid its defenses. I have no doubt that Western arms are taking a toll on Russian vehicles and aircraft though. Whether these are just isolated incidents or not is hard to tell.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:30
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Telsa Cola posted:They just approved shipment of 1k ATGMs and 500 Stinger AA missiles. Which is fairly impressive amount. the one constant of every war is that everyone burns through fancy weapons way faster than anticipated. It's probably ten day's worth of materiel.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:30
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the popes toes posted:Ah, no I didn't. Thanks. It’s not that the SWIFT ban is meaningless. It’s just the way it seems to me, the SWIFT ban now is to Russia like being annoyed that the crew woke you up during the middle of an awesome dream you were having to tell you the Titanic is about to sink.
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Feb 26, 2022 23:30
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Upgrade posted:Dude, it’s day 3. We have limited information. I know it’s tempting to write the ending but we’re a long way from that. In time-honored SA fashion, you write the ending you want first and then you desperately work back from there Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 23:30
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