|
Popete posted:If it was real close to the Polish border and they were hitting Polish convoys it's possible they might engage defensively. No they wouldn't, everyones pretty aware that the moment the military arms carrying convoy crosses the Ukranian border its a viable target. If Poland was remotely willing to do so they'd almost certainly just give the Ukranians an escort with AA capabilities.
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 02:15 |
|
|
BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Poland has an enormous amount of historical bad blood with Russia so any opportunity to mess with them is irresistible. And history with Ukraine / historical claims to Ukraine (it used to be part of Greater Poland). Not that Ukraine always enjoyed Polish stewardship, but it certainly helps in the current situation.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:55
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Again, this means Russian alternative is to become China's client. This is a giant failure, an existential loss. Not a win that proves European ssanctions are pointles. Oh, I'm not saying the sanctions are pointless at all. Merely pointing out that Russia can still transact oil. I can't imagine Putin expected such backbone from the squabbling liberal democracies.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:56
|
|
|
It's funny how all the journalists are focusing on the swift ban and just not mentioning the foreign reserve freeze at all despite it being a much bigger deal. I guess "bank transfer won't work" is easier to explain as no normal person actually understands what money is or how it functions.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:56
|
|
|
Mokotow posted:They are being much smarter about this Frankly, this. As long as Ukrainians say they’re receiving poo poo, it can all stay completely in the dark.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:56
|
|
|
goddamit, maybe independent journalists going to warzones without a lick of language skills is stupid. guy is lucky to be breathing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQMlVpBh01s&t=1406s
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:57
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:We have no way to tell. Ukrainian army is maintaining solid opsec, and osint channels are respectfully not reporting it either, so the best way we can tell if TB2 are used is by someone miraculously being able to distinguish tanks blown up by TB2 from tanks blown up by dozens of other weapons Ukrainians can use against tanks. Thanks I guessed so. I do say the Ukrainians have been extremely displined with social media. A
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:57
|
|
|
Budzilla posted:The Ukrainian government have been building licensed TB2 Turkish drones for a while now but I haven't heard anything about them in this war. Are they saving them for when things get very dire? It's unclear how many they actually have in service, and the Russians hit their home base in the early batch of strikes. There have been a few pictures of destroyed vehicles that could have been hit by MAM-Ls, but the Ukranians are not posting a lot of gun cam stuff to social media.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:57
|
|
|
We live in a strange world when Ukraine is crowd funding the defense from a Russian invasion on Twitter.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:57
|
|
|
Telsa Cola posted:No they wouldn't, everyones pretty aware that the moment the military arms carrying convoy crosses the Ukranian border its a viable target. Across the border sure but the premise of the question was why wasn't Russia hitting convoys at the border to stop them and I don't think Russia even if they probably could get away with it would want to escalate things if a trigger happy AA site in Poland takes shots at a Russian aircraft that strays too close to the border. Either way, Russia isn't operating anywhere near the Polish borders so it's kind of moot.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:58
|
|
|
Popete posted:If it was real close to the Polish border and they were hitting Polish convoys it's possible they might engage defensively. I'm not saying this is going to happen just that I don't think Russia is going to risk escalating things by engaging convoys along the Polish border. No, it isn't. NATO is not going to engage Russia in a non-NATO country.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:59
|
|
|
EvilHawk posted:Russia _reaching_ cities is not the same as Russia _capturing_ cities, which is their goal. As far as anyone can tell, Russia has only captured on major city in the south. They've been in the outskirts of Kyiv for 2 days and not made any meaningful progress towards the city center itself since, suffering casualties on the way. If you have open-source documentation on Russia's warplan and objectives then please do share so I am unsure as to what exactly you know of their goals or timetables. Or if they have modified them in light of current Ukrainian resistance (ie abandoning initial day 1 cities they thought they could capture and favoring an allin on Kyiv and weighting the full strenght of the support to that effort). Even the UK MOD is just guessing right now. I don't think anyone, especially on this forum, is in a position to definitively say the Russians are doing excessively poorly. If Kyiv is still standing after a week's time then sure that can be re-evaluated. Hieronymous Alloy posted:The difference seems to be that the Americans kept their supply lines protected. A real possibility though I have yet to see any concrete indication that they are having major supply issues. Popete posted:If it was real close to the Polish border and they were hitting Polish convoys it's possible they might engage defensively. I'm not saying this is going to happen just that I don't think Russia is going to risk escalating things by engaging convoys along the Polish border. Pretty sure that no NATO country is allowing any of its personnel to step one foot into Ukrainian soil and the Russians are 100% aware that anything remotely like dropping bombs on a border crossing just to stop a convoy is directly inviting intervention that it seeks to avoid. MikeC fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:59
|
|
|
Captain Stalin posted:Honest question, what's going right for Russia right now? It looks like they've advanced somewhere around 150 km to the Northwest and Northeast, taking or bypassing two decently sized cities. 
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:00
|
|
|
TheRat posted:No, it isn't. NATO is not going to engage Russia in a non-NATO country. I said might. It's a non-zero possibility and at this stage I don't see Russia wanting to take even the very unlikely risk of escalating things with NATO by operating along the Polish border.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:01
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:Dumb question,  also the yellow blob is full of very angry people carrying javelins, manpads and machineguns Antigravitas posted:That's all energy, here's electricity (a year outdated, i don't have better numbers yet): Ah you're right. Thanks for the correction. We have the same problem here in the Netherlands with our lovely lib government refusing to actually do the work to get us off the gas in a timely manner. Samopsa fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:02
|
|
|
TheRat posted:No, it isn't. NATO is not going to engage Russia in a non-NATO country. Planes cross borders without realizing it all the time
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:02
|
|
|
Popete posted:Across the border sure but the premise of the question was why wasn't Russia hitting convoys at the border to stop them and I don't think Russia even if they probably could get away with it would want to escalate things if a trigger happy AA site in Poland takes shots at a Russian aircraft that strays too close to the border. A trigger happy AA site on the Poland side firing across is a huge liability for NATO and them firing is likely going to be counterproductive for NATO because Russia will rightly raise hell about it and likely get assurances that it wont happen again letting them have an easier time of things. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:03
|
|
|
MikeC posted:A real possibility though I have yet to see any concrete indication that they are having major supply issues. The British ministry of defence is providing regular updates, and has very close ties to the Ukrainian armed forces (they've been providing a lot of training and equipment). Their update this afternoon stated that the Russian advance appeared to be slowed by supply shortages. We obviously won't know for certain until the war is over but it definitely seems to be accepted by more than just posters.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:03
|
|
|
a pipe smoking dog posted:It's funny how all the journalists are focusing on the swift ban and just not mentioning the foreign reserve freeze at all despite it being a much bigger deal. I guess "bank transfer won't work" is easier to explain as no normal person actually understands what money is or how it functions. I think it just sounds more exciting. Kicking Russia out of Swift was a big demand back in 2014. Heck, one of the Ukrainian exchange students said it would be the number one thing the United States could do to help Ukraine (this was back in 2019, and I'm not saying he was an authority on the subject!) - it's a big deal for that alone. I really do hope this will be enough to end Putin's violent advances on Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:03
|
|
|
Samopsa posted:here's a quick map (not accurate at all in regards to current fronts/territories taken) that might make things more clear: The map couldn't be worse, more inaccurate if you actively tried
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:03
|
|
|
Turrurrurrurrrrrrr posted:Any Russian telegram channels if that platform is not blocked there? There are plenty of propaganda Telegrams, and it also actively used by the state outlets as well, after they backtracked from their pathetic and failed attempt to ban Telegram in the country. For web propaganda, you can also look up Sputnik News and Zvezda TV, in addition to RT.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:05
|
|
|
wins32767 posted:So here's something I don't get. The mechanized attack on Kiev came down from Belorussia ... ~180km, which they've managed in 2 days. That says that the bridge wasn't blown and that no meaningful forces were put in front of them to slow them down. I don't get that decision. I guess the Ukrainians want to fight in Kiev? It's a really long single road logistical tether for the Russians to be pushing supplies and reinforcements down, so maybe that's it? 180km in two days doesn't mean there was no meaningful resistance: it just means there wasn't enough to slow it down more. 180km in two days is averaging a few km an hour, which means they were likely in contact for large parts of that push. You can trade space for time, and space for better ground. Propaganda aside, you really shouldn't fight for every last cm of ground, so a fighting withdrawal to Kiev makes sense. Recoome posted:When was the last time a combatant lost so many paratroopers in the plane? Between this and the failed airfield assault, this has got to be some of the worst employment of air assault forces we’ve seen in a while. Extremely clear that the Russians do not have air superiority at all. Probably Operation Market Garden in 1944. The Soviets conducted a few airborne operations in WW2, with mixed results. They conducted a lot of air assault operations in Afghanistan, which went well until the Mujahadeen started getting Stingers. I'm really curious how the various anti-aircraft systems are performing, but I doubt much will be in the OSINT world for months or years. Mustard Iceman posted:Is insurgents loving supply lines still even a possibility in these days? Yes. It's difficult and partisans will suffer heavy casualties, but it's absolutely doable. Drones provide a lot of visibility on supply routes, though. Giving Ukraine access to anti-drone technology (which admittedly is still newish) will be important. Mr Luxury Yacht posted:A lot of this is making me wonder if Putin maybe originally was just planning for a small incursion to take Donbass and in a last minute brain mush ploy decided to just say "gently caress it" and go for the whole country without giving his forces time to prepare. So much of this has seemed just kludged together in terms of planning. I disagree. I think this was very well-planned, but as the saying goes, no plan survives first contact with the enemy. This plan really didn't, I think in part because Russian intelligence (or at least, Russian decision-makers) dramatically underestimated Ukraine's will to fight. Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:...why are russian military vehicles trying to ram barricades??? like, the better thing to do would be to hang back and shoot enough bullets and shells at the barricades to (1) scare off anyone nearby from trying to gently caress with you (2) clear out the barricade enough so that you don't have to slam your vehicles into it. what in the gently caress is the plan here? It's easier to use a 30- or 50-ton vehicle to push through a barricade. Video games and movies have ruined people's realistic expectations of how munitions work. Bullets--even large kinetic cannon rounds--are quite small. A 50mm cannon will punch a bunch of...50mm holes. Explosives can help, but can also just scatter the barricade around so that you have to drive over and through a bunch of smaller obstacles. Charlz Guybon posted:Anyway to sabotage [armored vehicles] so they can't run again? Yes. Take off panels and clip electrical and fuel lines. Spray paint every vision block (window), especially the sights. Military engines are pretty resilient (US tanks will literally run on sludge if that's all you have), but put sugar/sand in the fuel tanks. If you're inside, take a hammer to any LCD screens or status lights. Take the firing pin out of the main cannon (usually part of the breech assembly). If you have some of the vehicle's tools and some time, unhook some track blocks and throw them into a swamp. Spray paint the sides with glossy, reflective paint. Observations & Predictions (based on studying this poo poo since the mid-80's and some time as a junior officer, so grains of salt, etc. etc.):
Things not to forget:
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:06
|
|
|
Man, I sympathize with the ordinary Russian on holiday. "How do I get back," might be way easier to answer than "Do I want to go back?"
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:06
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:The map couldn't be worse, more inaccurate if you actively tried For something that's supposed to be a very rough diagram showing distances and directions it seems to do a fine job?
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:07
|
|
|
MikeC posted:If you have open-source documentation on Russia's warplan and objectives then please do share so I am unsure as to what exactly you know of their goals or timetables. Or if they have modified them in light of current Ukrainian resistance (ie abandoning initial day 1 cities they thought they could capture and favoring an allin on Kyiv and weighting the full strenght of the support to that effort). Even the UK MOD is just guessing right now. russia is certainly doing worse than western expectations. the biggest deal is the fact that they still do not have air supremacy and their some of their aircraft are getting verifiably shot down. we also have seen video of countless destroyed russian tanks, trucks, and vehicles. they've been unable to enter kharkiv, which is quite literally on their border and almost certainly should be captured by now. obviously, we are not privvy to russian expectations, but it's hard to really look at anything that has happened so far and say "wow, russia did really well there!" other than the significant advances they've made from crimea. at the very least we have seen a number of attacks that were repulsed. the rest, we are relying on rumor and various reports which may or may not be true and just have to do our best to sift through. but at the very least it does appear, given the number of unsuccessful operations they've tried to carry out, that they aren't doing as well as their best case scenario might have suggested. sure, there's fog of war and we have seen a lot of ukrainian propaganda. but it is kind of undeniable that russia has incurred pretty significant losses that they really should not have, given their massive material advantage.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:07
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:The map couldn't be worse, more inaccurate if you actively tried i just dragged my fat goon finger over the borders and filled it up DTurtle posted:The southern front (advancing out of Crimea) seems to be the one region that has apparently been going somewhat decently for Russia. which map is this? liveuamap doesn't show those red colored areas for me.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:07
|
|
|
Wonder how they'll pay for all the supplies needed for this invasion. I mean they setup "medical routes" and "supply lines" etc but what the gently caress? Where's the poo poo that those lines were created for? You'd think the tanks would be topped off every morning and afternoon as a standard practice.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:07
|
|
|
Nosre posted:The stream with the fire alarm (which was overlooking Maiden Square) is now offline, fwiw Ironic that this RT's stream is still up.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:09
|
|
|
a pipe smoking dog posted:The British ministry of defence is providing regular updates, and has very close ties to the Ukrainian armed forces (they've been providing a lot of training and equipment). Their update this afternoon stated that the Russian advance appeared to be slowed by supply shortages. Supply shortages on the third day, oy vey/holy military logistics batman
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:09
|
|
|
TheRat posted:For something that's supposed to be a very rough diagram showing distances and directions it seems to do a fine job? Absolutely not? It shows occupied Odessa, Mariupul, Russians at the Romanian border, Major advances in the east - all complete fabrications. At the same time it completely fails to capture the advance in the North. Even elsewhere it greatly overestimates Russian advance. Take Sumy for instance. My intuition says that most people will look at the Yellow and mid-brown areas and think "this is Ukraine" without realizing that the map shades huge parts as part of Russia for some reason? steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:09
|
|
|
Why isn't Russia cutting communications by targeting cell tower and such or is that not how it works this day in age? Seems like they want to control the narrative of this invasion so wouldn't it be a good idea? I'm not complaining, I'm just a bit curious.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:10
|
|
|
Watching CNN now and the Kyiv skyline has a pulsing red glow from something hitting somewhere hard that doesn't match previous nights footage. It's ominous.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:10
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Absolutely not? It shows occupied Odessa, Mariupul, Russians at the Romanian border, Major advances in the east - all complete fabrications. yes that's what I mention, not accurate at all, it's just to mark the countries and where aid is entering ukraine, as the OP asked about. e: I updated it just for you Samopsa fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:10
|
|
|
E. Revenant posted:Watching CNN now and the Kyiv skyline has a pulsing red glow from something hitting somewhere hard that doesn't match previous nights footage. It's ominous. Probably the Thermobaric artillery I really hope not though
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:11
|
|
|
This is a crowd sourced map based on reports of where combat is happening https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&ll=50.46388221284748%2C30.548118195843678&z=12 it seems pretty accurate if a bit aggressive in the south. Haven't seen anything saying RF have reach Mariupol from the West yet, though they are close.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:12
|
|
|
Psyop? https://twitter.com/avindman/status/1497685325333905417?s=21
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:13
|
|
|
E. Revenant posted:Watching CNN now and the Kyiv skyline has a pulsing red glow from something hitting somewhere hard that doesn't match previous nights footage. It's ominous. That could be the thermobaric rounds  Russia is in chaos right now https://twitter.com/MarketRebels/status/1497675529490767881?t=SeXUtvpASEjNnDqMMB6gVQ&s=19
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:13
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Absolutely not? It shows occupied Odessa, Mariupul, Russians at the Romanian border, Major advances in the east - all complete fabrications. Jesus man, it does a fine of job of answering the question that was asked of it.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:13
|
|
|
So what was the big bomb that went off around the airport in Kyiv? Fox News was making GBS threads their pants about the pulsing red glow coming from the region.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:13
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 02:15 |
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:Dumb question, Dumb answer is that I think if a supply of advanced "Hand this to a conscript and they can kill a tank or fighter jet" weaponry is coming through a border, it might be like handing off slices of cake at a business party. The people next to the cake are going to have a lot slices at hand. Might be hard to stop them from handing off cake.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 00:14
|
|
