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There Bias Two posted:Who is this random guy? Ross.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:16
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JosefStalinator posted:Let me defend realpolitik/realism just a bit, but not necessarily as a full throated defense but as a caution about how this can still completely work in Putin's favor. I think at this point given the sanctions, which are building up to "crippling" to the Russian economy; Putin absolutely needs a much more complete win at this point than *merely* linking Crimea with the Donbass PR's. It's certainly insufficient to remain in power. My thinking is at this point Russia/Putin is in a really bad position due to badly mismanaging the war and badly playing their hand which started off as advantageous. They need a complete victory, partly so they can use Ukraine as a hostage for negotiating a renormalization with the EU/West to recover their economy; I'm not sure if there's any reason for the West to drop sanctions at this point even if Russia agrees to end their invasion, they need access to Western markets more than the West needs them. If Ukraine's line breaks and Russia is able to occupy the country, that gives them leverage to negotiate a nominally independent Ukraine. If Ukraine holds then I think Russia has f-worded themselves significantly for years.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:17
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1497751932567494657 ... did someone really think it was a nuke? Grouchio did you open Twitter again?
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Feb 27, 2022 03:17
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Protesters in Tehran chant "Death to Putin" and "Viva Peace" in front of the Ukrainian embassy A reminder that in Arabic “death to” isn’t especially serious, more equivalent of “gently caress this”.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:17
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There Bias Two posted:Who is this random guy? Looking for other sources. https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1497754677471232000 https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497755402926268421
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Feb 27, 2022 03:18
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More details, machine translated https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1497755906431406084?t=9xNhoe4psQHG1LNxqCTY3Q&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 03:18
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ZombieLenin posted:I don’t know about that. This whole debacle has shown that the Russian Armed Forces are orders of magnitude less capable than those available to NATO. Let me give you an example. Romania has something like 50 combat jets in total. They realistically aren't going to send them above 3 because 1. Combat jets are stupid expensive and 2. Even 3 is a fairly sizable chunk of their inventory. Romania needs to keep all their nice poo poo handy because they are right on the doorstep of the invasion and have to be able to protect their own interests if poo poo fires off. 1-3 jets from Romania isn't going to turn the tide because even if Russia severly underpreforms they still literally have hundreds of jets and AA platforms. Same deal with tanks. Its just way easier to send equipment and way easier to deal with training and resupply and all that poo poo with equipment too.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:18
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KitConstantine posted:More details, if someone can translate: It's in English, but I can translate it into Latvian if you want.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:19
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Got out to a peace protest near me today. 500-some turned out, hard to tell from the ground. A number of local representatives turned out to voice their support and declare that they were doing something to both address the humanitarian crisis and hold Putin responsible. Was great to see!gently caress SNEEP posted:Y'know, I was thinking about this exact thing this morning   Now we just need Saint Javelin taking out an Armata à la 
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Feb 27, 2022 03:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It's in English, but I can translate it into Latvian if you want. please/
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Feb 27, 2022 03:22
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It's in English, but I can translate it into Latvian if you want. If you feel like it! I saw the heading was untranslated and hit post too fast. Seems like everything is stable at the moment https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497758446002716674?t=hMWmoaWE4-0d-d4121u5zQ&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 03:23
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Telsa Cola posted:Let me give you an example. No, I get what you are saying. I also get how events on the ground change the strategic calculus of nation states. I think the bigger barrier to transfer of combat aircraft is the pilots. If the Ukrainian Air Force, for example, runs out of Mig-29s did they also run out of MiG-29 pilots?
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Feb 27, 2022 03:23
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ZombieLenin posted:No, I get what you are saying. I also get how events on the ground change the strategic calculus of nation states. But I learned how to be good at Wing Commander in a couple of days.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:24
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Young Freud posted:I need Zelensky to derail this blatant opportunism by saying "Trans kids need defending too" or something. Why would Zelensky care about this?
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Feb 27, 2022 03:25
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i heard the first part but not the second even though its the obvious conclusion lol https://twitter.com/douglaschu_/status/1497642246203748353/
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Feb 27, 2022 03:27
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quarantinethepast posted:Why would Zelensky care about this? Who wouldn’t?
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Feb 27, 2022 03:27
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I think there is a typo on the lower right of the picture from the video.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:27
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loving morons https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1497759791170691073?t=3M8kCr8lIeEzOQ0rmF6ZVg&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 03:27
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ZombieLenin posted:If the Ukrainian Air Force, for example, runs out of Mig-29s did they also run out of MiG-29 pilots?
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Feb 27, 2022 03:28
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ZombieLenin posted:No, I get what you are saying. I also get how events on the ground change the strategic calculus of nation states. The only way the calculus changes is if the US or France or whatever basically start shipping planes to people. Romania and Poland are not going to give out vital equipment because Russia is realistically not going to suffer significant enough losses that they no longer pose a local threat. The Russian military situation is all sorts of hosed up but its entirely unrealistic to think that the entire Russian military is going to get so shredded by the Ukrainians that they cant force project to neighboring countries. If the above happened it would up there for probably the worst military gently caress up in history. Probably not, I feel like everyone learned not to do that after Japan in WW2 ran into similar issues.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:29
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ZombieLenin posted:No, I get what you are saying. I also get how events on the ground change the strategic calculus of nation states. They'll have retired pilots that are no longer nominally active duty that can fly them. The limitation will be the planes, not pilots.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:29
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ZombieLenin posted:No, I get what you are saying. I also get how events on the ground change the strategic calculus of nation states. This is generally the problem with replacement systems - even if like for like, either you a) don't have trained crews for incremental systems that get sent, because usually you have enough trained crews and experts to cover the number of systems you have and not a bunch of extra, or b) you need the replacement system because the original got blown up or disabled, in which case there's a decent chance the crew manning the system were killed or incapacitated. Now if Ukraine has a bunch of old man Fulcrum drivers twiddling their thumbs that's a different story, but I kind of doubt that's the case. that makes for a good movie but isn't realistic anyway.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:30
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Pook Good Mook posted:They'll have retired pilots that are no longer nominally active duty that can fly them. The limitation will be the planes, not pilots. you are severely underestimating estimating the amount of time you need to be flying a combat aircraft to maintain proficiency
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Feb 27, 2022 03:31
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I just caught Putin's Russian MFA tweet calling the Ukrainians holed up in the cities "Banderites" and thought, well, that's really going to resonate with a lot of people.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:32
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:you are severely underestimating estimating the amount of time you need to be flying a combat aircraft to maintain proficiency Probably but it's academic anyway. Very low likelihood that a pilot dies and his plane is flyable again.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:32
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I think everyone is still wondering what Putin expects will happen when he eventually takes Kyiv. Take Kyiv ??? Glory to Russia! Installing a puppet is just going to eventually produce another Euromaidan. Or alternatively, splitting up Ukraine didn't really require taking Kyiv. America Inc. fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 03:34
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Pook Good Mook posted:They'll have retired pilots that are no longer nominally active duty that can fly them. The limitation will be the planes, not pilots. 100 hours a year minimum in the air to maintain proficiency, and even then they likely would not be competitive with much more experienced Russian pilots (though in fairness they don't exactly get a lot of training time either).
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Feb 27, 2022 03:34
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When was the last time two professional peer(ish) air forces fought openly? Does Armenia-Azerbaijan count?
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Feb 27, 2022 03:36
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quarantinethepast posted:I think everyone is still wondering what Putin expects will happen when he eventually takes Kyiv. They weren't expecting it to be this difficult, I'm sure Putin would like to go back in time and undo the invasion. At this point, Putin is riding the Tiger and can't get off. If this ends in a humiliating retreat, he's probably going to be defenestrated.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:39
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Fill Baptismal posted:When was the last time two professional peer(ish) air forces fought openly? Does Armenia-Azerbaijan count? Probably the Korean War. Maybe specific engagements in Vietnam if you are generous with the criteria.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:40
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Edmund Lava posted:A reminder that in Arabic “death to” isn’t especially serious, more equivalent of “gently caress this”. Ok, but what about in Farsi, the main language of Iran?
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Feb 27, 2022 03:41
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Fill Baptismal posted:When was the last time two professional peer(ish) air forces fought openly? Does Armenia-Azerbaijan count? Iran-Iraq War perhaps
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Feb 27, 2022 03:42
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quarantinethepast posted:I think everyone is still wondering what Putin expects will happen when he eventually takes Kyiv. He's made it pretty clear that he wants to genocide the Ukrainian population and presumably colonize the region as a Russian territory while the tankies cheer him on, so I would assume that those would be the next steps.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:43
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Rigel posted:They weren't expecting it to be this difficult, I'm sure Putin would like to go back in time and undo the invasion. Defeat probably looks like retreat after years of prolonged insurgency, I don't think Ukraine is going to be able to save Kyiv. This war just doesn't make much sense even from a realpolitik perspective.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:44
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Fill Baptismal posted:When was the last time two professional peer(ish) air forces fought openly? Does Armenia-Azerbaijan count? I don't think it does. While neither country has a large air force, Azerbaijan--at least during the last conflict--outclassed Armenia considerably in both numbers and equipment.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:45
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Kaal posted:He's made it pretty clear that he wants to genocide the Ukrainian population and presumably colonize the region as a Russian territory while the tankies cheer him on, so I would assume that those would be the next steps. No that's not it either, don't let yourself be taken by hyperbolic claims.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:45
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Raenir Salazar posted:I think at this point given the sanctions, which are building up to "crippling" to the Russian economy; Putin absolutely needs a much more complete win at this point than *merely* linking Crimea with the Donbass PR's. It's certainly insufficient to remain in power. I hope you're right, but i don't think Putin is as vulnerable as we might like to think. He's spent 8 years consolidating power and purging opposition, all the while delinking the Russian economy from the global one. I'd still live to see him strung up of course, but i think things would have to get a LOT worse for that to happen.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:46
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quarantinethepast posted:No that's not it either, don't let yourself be taken by hyperbolic claims. It's definitely not hyperbole, he's been pretty clear about what he wants to do with Ukrainian "Nazis", not to mention his utter contempt for the entire idea of a sovereign Ukraine.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:47
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OctaMurk posted:Iran-Iraq War perhaps Yeah this. People forget the top F-14 ace was Iranian.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:49
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quarantinethepast posted:Defeat probably looks like retreat after years of prolonged insurgency, I don't think Ukraine is going to be able to save Kyiv. They can just keep whatever land in the East they want, and can certainly handle whatever lower level insurgency comes with it, probably purging/deporting dissidents to the rump remaining Ukraine. According to realist logic, that's more territory and worth it, especially once the West later stops sanctions and gets bored of punishing Russia.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:49
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