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USA Today factcheck page on facebook is quite a good follow. Especially photos purporting to be explosions in Ukraine (all go 'how terrible') actually from 2021 Israeli assault on Gaza (all go 'well they deserve it they're all in hamas anyway), various photos and videos of air craft being from video games, simulations, or from years ago. I'm sure other 'fact check' pages are available.. (Obviously I don't just take fact check pages at face value either). I recall during the Egyptian revolution/Morsi year the propaganda: faked photos etc (from both sides). All my friends were sharing a photo of muslim brotherhood dishonouring the Egyptian flag by sitting on it - but it was a photoshopped flag. Another one with them supposedly flying the muslim brotherhood flag but in as the guy holding the flag pole had about 17 fingers it was another photoshop. The other side were doing it too but I can't remember any specific examples right now. Oh and there was one from Taksim Square (Turkey) purporting to be marks made by a tank running over someone at the protests which was actually lifted from an ocean safety brochure and showed the marks on the body of someone who fell under a boat propellor). page snipe: 107 is also a boring number. Have some baby bears dancing in a forest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY0Qin7WxjY Jaeluni Asjil fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 17:31
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Guavanaut posted:Just send Jacob Rees-Mogg to lecture them on how long you can survive on a single bag of potatoes, maybe they'll eat him. Not sure he is safe for human consumption. Jaeluni Asjil posted:as the guy holding the flag pole had about 17 fingers it was another photoshop. Not necessarily wise to extrapolate this reasoning to all flag enthusiasts however.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:34
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Have spent the last five days in the War Ukraine - Russia thread, both sides have sent delegations off for talks. Even if Putin wins, he's lost.  
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Feb 27, 2022 17:54
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Just Another Lurker posted:Have spent the last five days in the War Ukraine - Russia thread, both sides have sent delegations off for talks. Well, that happened quicker than I was expecting. Negotiating while your country's full of foreign troops is hardly a position of strength, tho.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:38
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Depends what condition they're in. It could be a "surrender and we'll give them petrol money to get back to the border" negotiation.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:39
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I'm still of the opinion that Putin expected this to be over by now, with Kyiv firmly under his control - the (admittedly not 100% reliable) reports of Russian and Belarusian advances stalling for lack of fuel seem to bear out the idea that they expected a quick decapitation strike and when they failed to gain control of any of the airports they attacked (and in particular when the Ukrainians cratered the runway at Hostomel) it threw a massive spanner in the works. The problem is now whether his pride and self-image will let him negotiate a settlement even from a position of strength, and I don't think it will. So it comes down to whether or not the EU finally grows a pair and actually cuts off SWIFT, which will do to the Russian economy what Ukrainian artillery did to that runway, and the people propping him up decide to persuade him to have a nice cup of tea while lining up some new face to be feted by Blair et. al.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:01
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I hope they will keep the sanctions up until russia cedes all territorial claims in ukraine, but that seems like something that would necessitate a change of leadership. A weak peace that grants russia territory and influence over the (hypothetical) remaining ukrainian state is really only prolonging the inevitable. If they are having logistical problems that does suggest a gross overestimation of their rate of advance though.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:09
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Or that they fell for very basic traps. Like the trap where they let all your tanks through unopposed and then wreck all the support vehicles. That's like how not to tank 101, but I think in this case if things like that did happen it would go back to the problems with believing your own reality, that of course weak Ukraine runs from the Russian armor.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:15
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Yeah, I think he drastically miscalculated due to one really important thing. For the past 60+ Russia/US have fought proxy wars. This time, he forgot to use a proxy. Had just Chechen, or Belarussians been used, the west would not be getting half as excited. In a normal proxy war, you give as much cheap material to your side as you think they can use to one-up the other proxy. Nothing fancy or too expensive, as you wouldn't want the other side picking it up if your proxy loses. Now tho, every single western power is handing Ukraine all manner of top grade armor and weapons weaponry to punch the Russians as hard as possible. There's also the huffing-own-farts belief that they would roll into Kiev and the weak homo-nazi government would flee before the morning. That was basically their strategy. It's failed, and even if Ukraine surrendered now to all Putins conditions, he has still hosed the Russian economy/international standing so much that those oligarchs are looking at their fortunes falling off a cliff in realtime right now,.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:16
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even after the last few years of this fukken timeline, I don't think there has been a week of such change/political and military activity on this kind of scale pretty surreal imo
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Feb 27, 2022 19:20
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Anyone else wish they could just get blackout drunk until the whole thing is over either way I have no healthy way of coping with this poo poo and have spent the weekend glued to my phone. I know the answer is to step away but then I panic about what might be happening
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Feb 27, 2022 19:25
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DesperateDan posted:even after the last few years of this fukken timeline, I don't think there has been a week of such change/political and military activity on this kind of scale It is worrying as there are a lot of ways this can shake out badly in the long run. There could be good outcomes, ideally it would be nice if this would be a wake up to develop better energy autarky with a focus on renewables so that we're not all loving dependent on whatever happenes geopolitically so we don't freeze to death (or boil to death) and perhaps also food and other important things we've been having problems with lately. Perhaps it could also lead to better things for russia in the long run with a change of government. But the pessimist in me is just expecting the cold war 2 tbh. minema posted:Anyone else wish they could just get blackout drunk until the whole thing is over either way Unless you live there it's not happening to you, and if it starts happening to you then knowing about it two minutes early won't help. I stopped reading the ukraine thread because I was just making myself miserable, and you're allowed to do that, you don't have to store all the world's sorrows in your head if it's not helping anything. OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 19:30
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OwlFancier posted:It is worrying as there are a lot of ways this can shake out badly in the long run. Lol your pessimist is my optimist, my pessimist is wondering how robust the permissive action links on Russian nukes are.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:34
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^^^ it seems like unauthorised nukes are not the main concern is russian regime change really in any way likely as a result of a sluggish invasion? I guess I figured putin was pretty much all powerful in russia and there wasn't anyone in a position to strong arm him out of the door.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:34
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Cold War 2: sino boogaloo
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Feb 27, 2022 19:35
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NotJustANumber99 posted:^^^ it seems like unauthorised nukes are not the main concern Theres only so stupid even someone with putins power can look before the wolves come out
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Feb 27, 2022 19:36
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I know it'll put pressure on Putin but I'm conflicted about the cutting Swift support thing. I've seen a lot of very cool Russian people who are extremely anti war talking about how it would essentially leave them without any income and they'd be hosed. Like most sanctions just feels like it'll hurt normal people and barely touch the people pulling the strings. Just seize every oligarch-owned property in London instead. That would gently caress off the right people.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:37
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OwlFancier posted:Unless you live there it's not happening to you, and if it starts happening to you then knowing about it two minutes early won't help. I stopped reading the ukraine thread because I was just making myself miserable, and you're allowed to do that, you don't have to store all the world's sorrows in your head if it's not helping anything. Too true, everyone needs an anchor to reality when dipping into such woes.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:38
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NotJustANumber99 posted:is russian regime change really in any way likely as a result of a sluggish invasion? I guess I figured putin was pretty much all powerful in russia and there wasn't anyone in a position to strong arm him out of the door. Not actual regime change, but a change of figurehead definitely is on the cards IMO. Putin (and all of the top of the Russian political scene) very much serve at the pleasure of the money men, even more so than here, and presumably some Slavic Dishy Rishi is already being lined up to slide into place once those money men have no more use for Putin.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:39
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Maybe Nalvany can get his turn, he's a bit like the Russian Macron. Liberals love him, talks a good game about anti-corruption, is also a massive racist. rt.com is returning a 403 error, has it been blocked? keep punching joe fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 19:40
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You can't run an entire country just by thinking about it, there are necessarily other people with de-facto power involved and enough pressure will make them band together and do something to preserve themselves. The question is whether this is enough pressure.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:40
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ThomasPaine posted:I know it'll put pressure on Putin but I'm conflicted about the cutting Swift support thing. I've seen a lot of very cool Russian people who are extremely anti war talking about how it would essentially leave them without any income and they'd be hosed. Like most sanctions just feels like it'll hurt normal people and barely touch the people pulling the strings. Just seize every oligarch-owned property in London instead. That would gently caress off the right people. Swift will hurt normal people, the Russian Central Bank restrictions will be a strike to the heart of the nation... which is the point i guess. Wonder what the Rouble will be worth this time tomorrow.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:42
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Not actual regime change, but a change of figurehead definitely is on the cards IMO. Putin (and all of the top of the Russian political scene) very much serve at the pleasure of the money men, even more so than here, and presumably some Slavic Dishy Rishi is already being lined up to slide into place once those money men have no more use for Putin. See I didn't think that was true, rather that Putin is the money man and if any of the other money men piss him off he shuffles them off and replaces them. As has happened previously. But I dunno wtf really.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:43
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My god. Dominic greive. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/27/our-tolerance-of-russian-corruption-in-britain-fatally-clouded-our-judgment-ukraine E: talking of Cameron era tories not being quite the same kind of thick jiggerypokery fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 19:49
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NotJustANumber99 posted:^^^ it seems like unauthorised nukes are not the main concern. That's exactly what I'm talking about. PAL's don't just exist to prevent an accidental launch, but to also give the opportunity for someone in the chain to directly disobey a properly-given order to launch. UK and (most) US nuclear forces definitely *do* have an explicit policy that someone in the chain can say "Nope, that's insane, not doing it". France has a somewhat shorter chain but the captains of their subs are still trained that they can disobey a launch order. Cold War-era Soviet forces did *not* have that and indeed a lot of their mid Cold War planning was explicitly about taking almost all ability to disobey an order out of the chain, although late Cold War and early-post-Soviet policy shifted back the other way, at the very least removing the complete automation of the silo-based systems (although, very scarily and to the delight of technothriller writers, also massively multiplied the amount of people who *could* launch a strike). My point is that - while very, very unlikely - it's not *impossible* that Putin might believe he could get away with at least tactical nukes to get his way, and he's certainly not afraid of rattling that particular sabre. If he does decide that the way to get what he wants is a couple of kilotons on the Ukrainian military command, how short is the chain that goes from his phone to a mushroom cloud? And how likely is anyone in it to just go "Nope"? Like if this was the UK we were talking about - first-strike permission requires at least 6 people, 3 of whom (Defence Secretary, Chief of the Defence Staff, CO of the submarine fleet) are in a position to tell Boris to gently caress off right to his face and also maybe have a quick ring round to see if anyone else fancies the job, the other three of which (unnamed tech at Northwood, and the captain and weapons officer of the boat) can just say "Nah gently caress it" *and are explicitly trained that they are entitled to do so and in fact have a legal and moral responsibility to do so if they believe the order is unlawful*.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:57
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Before any of you take any of my posting too seriously, I feel like I need to confess that I went to put a joint on to roast for sunday dinner when I came in this afternoon, and when after half an hour of pottering around doing other stuff I couldn't smell it cooking I worried the gas might have gone out. It hadn't, the oven was *lovely* and warm... and the meat was still sitting in the roasting tray on the side where I'd left it while waiting for the oven to warm up. So to avoid ending up having to eat dinner at 9, I seared the outside of the joint (I don't normally like doing this as it does tend to make it a bit tough but it does also cut half an hour or so off the cooking time), whacked it back in the oven, and got a-posting. I just realised the lovely smell of cooking was dispersing... and I must have actually turned the oven off when I put the meat in there. What I'm saying is this is the level of intellect you might be relying on for your takes about the likelihood of nuclear war, and you might want to lower your expectations accordingly.
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Feb 27, 2022 20:17
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Not necessary
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Feb 27, 2022 20:21
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I hope you enjoy your tantric dinner tomorrow at least.
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Feb 27, 2022 20:23
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OwlFancier posted:tantric dinner I'm not even quite sure what, because my minds gone all colour out of space now.
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Feb 27, 2022 20:33
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OwlFancier posted:It is worrying as there are a lot of ways this can shake out badly in the long run. Cold war better than a hot one though, and I was thinking a cold war might be what is needed to get states to get more active in the economy and be less liberal minded and consider other priorities than number go up (for the one percent).
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Feb 27, 2022 20:35
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Guavanaut posted:This just made me imagine Michael Gove doing something to a Yorkshire pudding. putting it to his greasy lips and blowing a raspberry for as long as he can
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Feb 27, 2022 20:37
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Ehhh... I am not sure arms buildup is really what I want to see given the impending climate collapse, if anything I was hoping everyone would stay largely militarily incompetent until that hits and then not have the chance to do much about invading each other over it.
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Feb 27, 2022 20:39
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His Divine Shadow posted:Cold war better than a hot one though, and I was thinking a cold war might be what is needed to get states to get more active in the economy and be less liberal minded and consider other priorities than number go up (for the one percent). I had such loving hopes for covid to do this for a while. A cold war sounds way more far fetched than even that was
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Feb 27, 2022 20:41
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OwlFancier posted:Ehhh... I mentioned it before but Ukraine has some of the most fertile land in the world, and is likely to be mostly immune to climate change for quite a while (sandwiched between the Med and the Caucuses, it's going to have pretty reliable rain and sun even while everything else goes to poo poo). It's entirely possible that future historians will recognise this as the first climate change-driven war even if that's not anywhere near the top of the list of Russian priorities. (There's the optimist in me, assuming there's going to be anyone able to write this poo poo down in a hundred years)
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Feb 27, 2022 20:44
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I'm donating my bones to the cockroach natural history museum where after the apocalypse they'll display me in the grand atrium (the shipping container at my unfinished house).
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Feb 27, 2022 21:03
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today I learned that the NATO logo doesn't contain OTAN just for weird "read it backwards in a mirror (despite the N)" reasons - as I had believed for years - but it actually stands for the organisation's name in French. lmao 
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Feb 27, 2022 21:24
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jiggerypokery posted:I had such loving hopes for covid to do this for a while. A cold war sounds way more far fetched than even that was Gotta keep on reaching for that silver lining tho
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Feb 27, 2022 21:30
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JeremoudCorbynejad posted:today I learned that the NATO logo doesn't contain OTAN just for weird "read it backwards in a mirror (despite the N)" reasons - as I had believed for years - but it actually stands for the organisation's name in French. lmao depends on whether you subscribe to the "the french just write everything backwards to annoy the anglos" theory (which I just made up and now have decided is good)
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Feb 27, 2022 21:45
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OwlFancier posted:depends on whether you subscribe to the "the french just write everything backwards to annoy the anglos" theory (which I just made up and now have decided is good) Like all non-English languages it was made up just to annoy English-speaking people.
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Feb 27, 2022 21:49
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JeremoudCorbynejad posted:today I learned that the NATO logo doesn't contain OTAN just for weird "read it backwards in a mirror (despite the N)" reasons - as I had believed for years - but it actually stands for the organisation's name in French. lmao Well, gently caress. I mean, the fact it was readable should have given that away.
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