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Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

What's the point of this ridiculous posturing? Do people think Russia is actually serious

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1498045944004235269

jiggerypokery
Feb 1, 2012

...But I could hardly wait six months with a red hot jape like that under me belt.

Willo567 posted:

What's the point of this ridiculous posturing? Do people think Russia is actually serious

That's what people were saying a week ago, to be fair

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
I want to believe this is real.

https://twitter.com/QuarantinedCoof/status/1498047484538638337

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

Man Plan Canal posted:

I don't mean to pull rank, but I've polled about 700,000 respondents since the beginning of the last US election cycle. This is my professional capacity speaking. An N of far less than 2000 would be fine to saturate their target cells given their described sample frame, and given a 91-6 split on the parameter of interest, the classical MOE is all but irrelevant anyway, a minuscule sample would be fine.

My reason for raising the round number is because it's very improbable to end up with a round number of respondents. Of course you target round numbers, but typically with CATI as a modality you have multiple calls going in parallel and so even if you turn off the tap at a round number, you end up with the last few calls trickling in. It would be very uncommon to call respondents serially such that you could actually say "I have 2,000, now I'm done". This is further complicated by mid-call attrition, and if they actually attempted to disqualify e.g. non-citizen respondents or minors. It's not necessarily a sign that it's fake -- they could very well have called in sequence one call at a time, or they could discard respondents after N=2,000 (this is not principled, since it is typically presumed that respondent order is exchangeable, and also why throw away valid data, but it wouldn't be a big deal), or they could have a true N different than N=2,000 and just reported the rounded number as pollsters sometimes do.

I was just responding from a framework of "Wow, it seems insane they're doing a poll in these conditions. Would I believe this poll?" and based on what I've seen the only red flag is the odd round number, everything else seems in keeping with best practices and I wouldn't have any huge concerns from a TSE point of view.

It was a selection issue joke my dude

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Willo567 posted:

What's the point of this ridiculous posturing? Do people think Russia is actually serious

The Russian armies been hyped up as Uber technological, advanced, heavily reformed and modernized and then they’ve embarrassed themselves p thoroughly here with their lack of planning. They have to remind everyone they still have big boy weapons since to keep people from completely losing fear

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Willo567 posted:

What's the point of this ridiculous posturing? Do people think Russia is actually serious

This is a notoriously unhinged anchor. If I were to draw a line from, like, Anderson Cooper to Tucker Carlson - this guy relative to Carlson is what Carlson is relative to Cooper.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice
Looking back but it seems like maybe Russia trying to hold onto its sphere of influence in the aftermath of the cold war was a huge mistake. If they hadn't attempted to take Crimea and instead negotiated with the more liberal government in good faith (afterall the Sevastopol naval base wasn't under any kind of immediate threat of being repatriated back to Ukraine); they could've made partnerships with Ukraine to improve their military modernization with access to skilled Ukrainian firms.

If they had instead focused on improving their quality of life, fighting corruption, and improving their economy; and treated the FSU states with respect; they wouldn't be in this position and could've been improving and developing peacefully.

Warad
Aug 10, 2019



It's also not beyond possibility that in whatever drug induced stupor Putin woke up from in whatever his Oligarchic equivalent of the Führerbunker is when he made the decision to do this stupid poo poo in the first place he also may have just "forgot" NATO has nukes too.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Willo567 posted:

What's the point of this ridiculous posturing? Do people think Russia is actually serious

Russia needs their Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, etc.

Upgrade
Jun 19, 2021




The article is real, the tweet summary is not

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




FishBulbia posted:

https://twitter.com/liz_cookman/status/1498005055613685762?s=20&t=0oH4Ws0TjKye0Qe5PytVow

Some reporting that Mariupol is already surrounded.

I'm sure that city isn't surrendering though.

Yeh, they saw through a lot of poo poo in 2014. And they have nearby reinforcements from JFO area.

Man Plan Canal
Jul 11, 2000

Listen to the madman

Dante posted:

It was a selection issue joke my dude

I mean, duh, but I responded to say "actually this seems like a pretty decent poll provided they actually did it as described"

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1498028744807694338?t=XfZWH4jbm0zZh9AXfQS0bg&s=19

I don't know the guy but he raises a good point. Has Russia not discovered the concept of driving at a slight distance?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

The EU should be training Ukrainian refugees to fly helis Nd operate vehicles and have them drive en back into Ukraine.

Hopefully the Chechens get railed in their collective asses from the ukranians.

We need to trap the wehrmact in the hills of Kyiv and win a decisive victory. Let's push the SS all the way back to... Moscow?

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

FishBulbia posted:

https://twitter.com/liz_cookman/status/1498005055613685762?s=20&t=0oH4Ws0TjKye0Qe5PytVow

Some reporting that Mariupol is already surrounded.

I'm sure that city isn't surrendering though.

Yeah no cities are gonna surrender at this point. Have fun in hell, zinkie boys.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Warad posted:

It's also not beyond possibility that in whatever drug induced stupor Putin woke up from in whatever his Oligarchic equivalent of the Führerbunker is when he made the decision to do this stupid poo poo in the first place he also may have just "forgot" NATO has nukes too.

It's also believing your own hype that you have the biggest baddest most invincible army on the planet and weak Ukrainians and ESPECIALLY weak westerns would never fight us because they're scared of us. The mentioning of nukes here is because he thinks NATO and the US will back down because we are strong and tough and they are weak and wimpy.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

This is a notoriously unhinged anchor. If I were to draw a line from, like, Anderson Cooper to Tucker Carlson - this guy relative to Carlson is what Carlson is relative to Cooper.

What's his name? I'm assuming he said similar unhinged poo poo in the past

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

GABA ghoul posted:

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1498028744807694338?t=XfZWH4jbm0zZh9AXfQS0bg&s=19

I don't know the guy but he raises a good point. Has Russia not discovered the concept of driving at a slight distance?

Well Ukraine is a notoriously small country

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

GABA ghoul posted:

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1498028744807694338?t=XfZWH4jbm0zZh9AXfQS0bg&s=19

I don't know the guy but he raises a good point. Has Russia not discovered the concept of driving at a slight distance?

On the other hand, how loving long is a convoy going to be if you do that?

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

I am not terribly surprised, like I was saying earlier it’s a matter of pilots more than aircraft; and there is nothing seeing like a nuclear armed fascist state and a resurgent NATO to change your priorities about where that old Soviet tech can go if it’s useful.

ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Feb 27, 2022

Mustard Iceman
Apr 8, 2015

Weak against ketchup


That's basically it as far as Mig-29s in the EU go. Some have Mig-21s but not sure what those could do even if a Mig-29 pilot could fly one... there's some Hinds as well but Ukraine doesn't seem in the market for helos.

slowdave
Jun 18, 2008

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Hopefully the Chechens get railed in their collective asses from the ukranians.

More precisely Kadyrov's goons, Chechenya very much does not side with Russia.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

The EU should be training Ukrainian refugees to fly helis Nd operate vehicles and have them drive en back into Ukraine.

Hopefully the Chechens get railed in their collective asses from the ukranians.

We need to trap the wehrmact in the hills of Kyiv and win a decisive victory. Let's push the SS all the way back to... Moscow?

What in he world?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Willo567 posted:

What's his name? I'm assuming he said similar unhinged poo poo in the past

Yes, he has a rather large body of past works - Dmitriy Kiselyov is the primary firebrand of Russian television.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Kiselyov

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Ewan posted:

I think you've misunderstood what FIRs are - they aren't the same as airspace. It's just a way to divide up whose air traffic controllers are responsible for monitoring etc. Airspace in the context of banning flights is the upwards projection from your national territory and territorial waters. A lot of the Canada &Icelandic FIR is above international waters and so they are fine to fly through.

Indeed, that’s a good point, although navigating that particular route between those two airspaces could be challenging. I’m fairly confident they do have an exemption, though, since we saw an earlier Aeroflot opting not to go around Iceland, and these flight being return flights to Russia.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

slowdave posted:

More precisely Kadyrov's goons, Chechenya very much does not side with Russia.

Well yes. Ant Chechen who does not side with Russia is in no danger of being killed by Ukrainian anti imperialists.

tazjin
Jul 24, 2015


HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

That's what you call a good old-fashioned bank run. grab as much devalued cash as you can before its gone.

This is fake news.

Source: Took out some cash (not more than usual, 10k RUB) earlier in central Moscow at an Альфа-Банк next to a metro station and there was nobody there and no withdrawal restrictions.

Paid attention during the day when walking past other bank offices and didn't see any queues there either, same for ATMs in central metro stations (Дмитровская, Чеховская).

Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer

Mustard Iceman posted:

That's basically it as far as Mig-29s in the EU go. Some have Mig-21s but not sure what those could do even if a Mig-29 pilot could fly one... there's some Hinds as well but Ukraine doesn't seem in the market for helos.

Those are all upgraded to NATO standard, so I assume they can share data with NATO assets like AWACS directly.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.



Going by the sparks shooting up in the duma it’s telling that some politicians are now more scared of being seen as pro war then balconies

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

Warad posted:

It's also not beyond possibility that in whatever drug induced stupor Putin woke up from in whatever his Oligarchic equivalent of the Führerbunker is when he made the decision to do this stupid poo poo in the first place he also may have just "forgot" NATO has nukes too.

Well this is the least coherent take in this thread, and that's quite impressive!

theghostpt
Sep 1, 2009

Interestingly enough I have a good Russian friend who approached me today to ask me to donate to an organization that is providing aid to Ukraine because she was told from back home that they are branding anyone who does that as a traitor. So this poo poo is definitely spreading between Russians, even outside of Russia.

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.
https://twitter.com/Marmel/status/1498037890974056448

Someone handed out Russia-branded Trump flags at CPAC as a prank, and either no one made the connection, or no one minded. Or a mix of the two!

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Raenir Salazar posted:

Looking back but it seems like maybe Russia trying to hold onto its sphere of influence in the aftermath of the cold war was a huge mistake. If they hadn't attempted to take Crimea and instead negotiated with the more liberal government in good faith (afterall the Sevastopol naval base wasn't under any kind of immediate threat of being repatriated back to Ukraine); they could've made partnerships with Ukraine to improve their military modernization with access to skilled Ukrainian firms.

If they had instead focused on improving their quality of life, fighting corruption, and improving their economy; and treated the FSU states with respect; they wouldn't be in this position and could've been improving and developing peacefully.

Yeah it’s crazy to imagine a world where Shock therapy and the 90s didn’t give Russians ptsd about democracy

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Going by the sparks shooting up in the duma it’s telling that some politicians are now more scared of being seen as pro war then balconies

I can only hope so, but that's my read as well, for the time being.

Timeless Appeal
May 28, 2006

Upgrade posted:

The article is real, the tweet summary is not
If we're being honest, it's also kinda of a gross mockery of sex workers and people who are at times legitimately artists even if their art is raunchy.

Sanctions and cyber attacks are all necessary if we're going to avoid actual war, but I think gawking and mocking everyday Russians just trying to live their loving lives is cruel. Their suffering might be preferable to the alternative right now, but it should not exist at all in a just society. It's the compromise we make to avoid actual war. I'm sure there are a bunch of people with more mundane jobs the tweet could respond to, but mocking predominantly women and sex workers adds another level of kicking down.

Timeless Appeal fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Feb 27, 2022

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



GABA ghoul posted:

I don't know the guy but he raises a good point. Has Russia not discovered the concept of driving at a slight distance?
A truck convoy like this brought down Trudeau, surely it can bring down the homonazis

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

GABA ghoul posted:

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1498028744807694338?t=XfZWH4jbm0zZh9AXfQS0bg&s=19

I don't know the guy but he raises a good point. Has Russia not discovered the concept of driving at a slight distance?

No, they think in RTS terms. If they can get one tank to Kiev city hall and hold for a 3 min. Then they win. They are gonna get droned and ambushed and then get hosed up in In the cities.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1498054577765163010

well that's a move

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BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


GABA ghoul posted:

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1498028744807694338?t=XfZWH4jbm0zZh9AXfQS0bg&s=19

I don't know the guy but he raises a good point. Has Russia not discovered the concept of driving at a slight distance?

I don’t do it on the highway and I sure as hell won’t do it at war!!

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