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V. Illych L. posted:
That's not for me to decide, but I think we should support the Ukrainians in their fight against an imperialist dictator and I really want them to actually win. Crucially, their decisions are theirs to make. And they have overwhelmingly asked for help, again and again.
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Feb 27, 2022 23:43
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McCloud posted:Who made you the arbiter of Ukranian interests? i'm trying to assess a rational interpretation of the ukrainian position. my interpretation of the ukrainian position is that they want to win the war. i assume that people generally don't want to fight a war which they have no chance of winning. the ukrainians presumably interpret arms shipments etc. as means to help them win the war, not to help them lose more slowly. if we disagree with this assessment of the situation (as i do), what we're actually doing is, in fact, helping them lose more slowly. i don't think that's what they want, because it's incompatible with winning. in this case, extending the war means objectively hurting lots of actual ukrainians. this also seems to be pretty clearly not in their interest. even if one disagrees with this, if we assume that the ukrainians would accept foreign intervention to win the war (as i think they would) and we center the ukrainian perspective here with no other considerations, then we should intervene as forcefully and directly as possible. since that doesn't seem to be something you're in favour of, you have to accept that there are other considerations here than just what the ukrainians say they want. i've tried to lay out some such considerations, and i'm perfectly willing to discuss those, but it can't be boiled down to "what the ukrainians want".
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Feb 27, 2022 23:45
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"What the Ukrainians want", with a limiting factor of "don't want to set off WW3".
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Feb 27, 2022 23:55
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it is, in fact, more complicated, because you've set aside your mode of reasoning - if the ukrainians want to risk WW3, why should we object? if we center the ukrainian perspective, we shouldn't. if we don't center the ukrainian perspective, we should. we're members of NATO. we've already agreed in principle that an invasion can be worth ending the world. that we're not willing to go there for ukraine is therefore not a matter of absolute principle (avoid WW3 at all costs), it's a matter of evaluating different priorities. if you want to reduce a complex situation to a simple strategy, you have to do it all the way.
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Feb 27, 2022 23:59
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So what do you think we should do? Hope that the economic sanctions are enough, while Ukrainians are getting killed, until Putin finally stops? Or help the Ukrainians by giving them a fighting chance, while also putting additional pressure on Putin, more than sanctions alone can do?
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Feb 28, 2022 00:01
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i think that my own country should follow its own laws and not send arms to a war zone. i think that this is, in general, the most humane way to go. i think that economic war stuff like freezing assets and property, divestment etc. pending certain demands (russian withdrawal, ceasefire, whatever) should be put in place. much of this is already happening, and that's good! give the russians as much incentive to end the war as soon as possible and on as equitable terms as we can. this is in part because i disagree that any realistic form of arms aid can give ukraine a fighting chance. i do not think that they can win this war short of a direct intervention by the US/europe, which i don't want for thermonuclear reasons. this is an assumption i realise is not uncontestable, but i note that we haven't spent a lot of time discussing it.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:07
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ideally we'd also actually get some of the gangster ruling class of russia's dirty money by making some effort at tracking financial instruments, investments and ownership, but one can only hope for so much while luxembourg remains in the EU e. oh and obviously humanitarian assistance, taking in refugees etc V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 00:14
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Opposing Germany, Italy and Japan was in fact the correct decision, even though it resulted in WW2.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:36
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I think it's a lot easier and popular to send them some AT4s than implementing sanctions that would actually hurt Russia, and as a necessary consequence in a globalized world, the EU itself. I also think a lot of the powers that be are perfectly happy with a protracted and bloody war if it in any way increases the chance of curbing the imperialistic ambitions of Russia, or better yet, leads to some kind of reckoning for the current administration. War has already broken out. I don't see that providing arms is different than providing any other kind of effective aid. If a country wants to instead stick with some largely symbolic gestures that can be walked back in quick order to stay on the good side of Russia that is understandable, but I would be suspicious of any claim that doing so is actually the moral thing to do.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:47
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I must say, it's incredible that you can't talk about this critically at all without being accused of Putinism and favouring the invasion. You're also not a True Socialist unless you want a direct confrontation between nuclear-armed powers. Getting some strong "You're either with us or you're with the terrorists" vibes here.KozmoNaut posted:The Ukrainians are literally fighting against a bonafide imperialist power, for the existence of their homeland as an independent country and — from seeing how Russia have treated POWs and dissidents and still do — for their lives, or at the very least to prevent torture and repression. It's not a free country by any stretch of the imagination. The grievances of the separatists aren't fictitious, they've had their political parties banned and been denied representation. Some of the state-sanctioned, Ukranian neo-nazi paramilitary groups employ torture as well. That doesn't justify an invasion, but please educate yourself a little beyond the ridiculous "plucky, freedom-loving liberal democracy" propaganda. Symbolic weapons shipments are not real support. All it will do is delay the inevitable and ensure more deaths. I'm sure martyrdom is super romantic and all, but it won't change the end result. Refer to Grozny. KozmoNaut posted:There are a lot more possible outcomes than "Putin takes whatever he wants because everyone fears him" and "nuclear war". There's no realistic outcome where Ukraine doesn't eventually get crushed, it's just a matter of how long it will take. I don't see any indication that he wants to annex the entire country or get bogged down in endless insurgency like the U.S. I appreciate the concern for my health, but if NATO were to get physically involved in the fighting that's literally it. This is not a controversial position, it's just common sense. Why do you think it's been all proxy wars for many, many decades? KozmoNaut posted:I would love to hear you guys' proposed solution to the current situation, one that isn't "let Putin do whatever he wants and repress the countries around Russia and eventually all of Europe". You can pretend he's a literal Genghis Hitler-Stalin who intends to steamroll Europe all you want, but that's not a very good or useful analysis. They could have not kept expanding NATO ever eastward, refrained from equivocating about future membership and developed Ukraine economically instead. There's no scenario where Russia accepts NATO sitting on such an important strategic asset, it's not a question of morality or justice. Revelation 2-13 posted:It was never a sure thing for russia in the short term, except for people who bought, hook line and sinker, the story that the probably most corrupt country in the world, where you can't even go to the doctor without bringing a sizable bribe, and with a gdp the size of italy, was somehow still a god-tier strenght military force that could just roll over a country which also had a sizable army, only slightly worse military tech, but dug in pretty heavily - and which has a winner of dancing with the stars as a democraticly elected leader. Ah yes, the notoriously corruption-free and democratic Ukraine that has literal neo-nazi paramilitary groups officially embedded in its national defense and banned Communism, whose official National Guard twitter is currently boasting about how these neo-nazis are covering their bullets in lard in preparation for fighting "Chechen orcs". Ukranians without any formal training are free to martyr themselves uselessly on the suggestion of their dreamboat president, that's their right and their prerogative, they were invaded after all and I completely understand the inclination, just don't expect Russia to admit defeat and gently caress off on that account.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:49
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Mymla posted:Opposing Germany, Italy and Japan was in fact the correct decision, even though it resulted in WW2. i'm about to go to bed so i won't be responding immediately to any counter here, but there are two differences here: 1: putin is not hitler 2: in the case of WW2 there was an actual plan to win the war. that does not seem to be the case here.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:56
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V. Illych L. posted:i'm about to go to bed so i won't be responding immediately to any counter here, but there are two differences here: Also no nukes. Except for, well, you know.
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Feb 28, 2022 02:02
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The purpose of arming Ukraine is to keep them in the fight long enough that sanctions change the internal calculus in Russia, so that Ukraine ends up in a position where it doesn't become a permanent client state of Russia. Sanctions need some time to work, if Ukraine folds immediately the calls to repeal them will come almost immediately. And from the perspective of making the sanctions hurt so Ukraine doesn't have to hold out long, the ones that have been approved or aired are pretty drat major.V. Illych L. posted:it is, in fact, more complicated, because you've set aside your mode of reasoning - if the ukrainians want to risk WW3, why should we object? if we center the ukrainian perspective, we shouldn't. if we don't center the ukrainian perspective, we should. SplitSoul posted:It's not a free country by any stretch of the imagination. The grievances of the separatists aren't fictitious, they've had their political parties banned and been denied representation. Some of the state-sanctioned, Ukranian neo-nazi paramilitary groups employ torture as well. That doesn't justify an invasion, but please educate yourself a little beyond the ridiculous "plucky, freedom-loving liberal democracy" propaganda. For sure the EU needs to force Ukraine to disband those groups/arrest their members when/if Russia backs off, and definitely also heavily encourage every Eastern European country with a Russian minority to treat them better, but I'm not gonna write off Ukraine as lost to Nazis when the country is arguably the least anti-Semitic in Eastern Europe, possibly Europe in general. A Buttery Pastry fucked around with this message at 07:07 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 06:59
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I'll not going to write a long-rear end post on my phone. The ideal thing would have been to work better together with Russia in the 90s, rather than dunking on them relentlessly. We can't change that now, and Putin got elected. Russia under him has spend decades pushing on Europe, by funding the far right, blatantly murdering dissidents and by asserting influence on the media. You can say that the US does similar things, but I don't remember them poisoning political opponents or funding the far right in Europe (Trump is a special case here, with a connection to Putin. He did fan the flames, not sure about funding). Re: Banning communism, it's a bit more complicated than that, what they did was ban the specific communist party, under suspicion of aiding the Russian-supported separatist movements in the Donbass. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraines-communists-were-banned-or-so-we-thought/ The far-right lost badly in the 2019 elections, and have apparently splintered since. Should the Azov Battalion exist, never mind be a part of the national guard? Hell no. Would it have cost a ton of time and resources to kick them to the curb, during credible threats from Russia? Yes. Claiming that Ukraine is brimming with neo-nazis is extreme disingenuous, you know with a Jewish president who lost family in WW2 and all. Literally every country has issues with far right assholes in the armed forces, it's not unique to Ukraine. It sucks and should obviously be handled, but that poo poo is everywhere. E: I share the enormous distaste for war and wish it never happened, but when an authoritarian dictator just tries to completely roll over a neighboring friendly country, there is only so much that country can do. I've greatly increased my monthly donation to MSF, because their services will sadly be sorely needed, and I hope Putin comes to his senses and backs down. KozmoNaut fucked around with this message at 07:17 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 07:02
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A Buttery Pastry posted:
As an additional point here, like half of all European Jews live in Ukraine, over 200,000. Well, maybe less now that Russia decided to invade...
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Feb 28, 2022 07:20
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V. Illych L. posted:actually arming one of the parties in a national conflict is a very, very serious step and not something to be done because one sympathises with one side over the other. it's almost as close to openly declaring war as you can get without your own uniformed soldiers putting their boots on the ground. the US in europe are presently at defcon 2 and the russians just similarly increased their strategic readiness. i still don't *think* this is going to turn nuclear, but if the russians start actually losing in the conventional phase of the war it really might. Arming Ukraine to make it more costly to achieve Putins checklist will likely give it a better negotiating position for a negotiated peace or ceasefire.
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Feb 28, 2022 07:45
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McCloud posted:Who made you the arbiter of Ukranian interests? Well Putin himself claims Lenin's policies created Ukraine so I guess he has some stake in the affair
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Feb 28, 2022 07:46
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A Buttery Pastry posted:For sure the EU needs to force Ukraine to disband those groups/arrest their members when/if Russia backs off, and definitely also heavily encourage every Eastern European country with a Russian minority to treat them better, but I'm not gonna write off Ukraine as lost to Nazis when the country is arguably the least anti-Semitic in Eastern Europe, possibly Europe in general. Okay. I never said that, though. KozmoNaut posted:Russia under him has spend decades pushing on Europe, by funding the far right, blatantly murdering dissidents and by asserting influence on the media. Okay. I never contested that, though. KozmoNaut posted:Re: Banning communism, it's a bit more complicated than that, what they did was ban the specific communist party, under suspicion of aiding the Russian-supported separatist movements in the Donbass. They weren't allowed to run their candidate in 2019 as the party was in violation of the decommunisation laws. KozmoNaut posted:Should the Azov Battalion exist, never mind be a part of the national guard? Hell no. They were inducted in 2014, however, and are not the only openly neo-nazi paramilitary group answering to the Interior Ministry or indeed comitting war crimes in Donbas. KozmoNaut posted:Claiming that Ukraine is brimming with neo-nazis is extreme disingenuous, you know with a Jewish president who lost family in WW2 and all. Okay. Good thing that's a strawman you made up whole cloth and not something I said. I don't give a gently caress if he's Jewish. He continues to have his government employ neo-nazi thugs. KozmoNaut posted:Literally every country has issues with far right assholes in the armed forces, it's not unique to Ukraine. It sucks and should obviously be handled, but that poo poo is everywhere. They're not exactly doing it on the downlow, my man, they have a Wolfsangel and Black Sun in their logo and everything. KozmoNaut posted:As an additional point here, like half of all European Jews live in Ukraine, over 200,000. Well, maybe less now that Russia decided to invade... Imagine how many more there would be if the national hero hadn't assisted in their extermination. Oh well!
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Feb 28, 2022 08:02
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I'll give you some time to come up with actual comebacks. E: or your ideal version of events and what should be/have been done, so we can all fantasize together. KozmoNaut fucked around with this message at 08:09 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 08:06
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KozmoNaut posted:I'll give you some time to come up with actual comebacks. Or you could address what I'm actually saying instead of arguing with some imaginary opponent, maybe you'd receive more verbose replies.
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Feb 28, 2022 08:10
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KozmoNaut posted:I would love to hear you guys' proposed solution to the current situation, one that isn't "let Putin do whatever he wants and repress the countries around Russia and eventually all of Europe". Military rearmament, which we should've started in 2014 after Crimea. If the EU or nato wanted Ukraine to be free, we need to protect it to the point that Russia would never dare invade it in the first place. We needed to tell Putin that Ukraine is part of our sphere of influence now and we're gonna defend it militarily. That's what the EU had to do if it wanted to keep Ukraine free and in it's orbit. But we just sat on our asses. The alternative was to let Ukraine fall into Moscows orbit instead of ours, but we wanted Ukraine, we just didn't want to fight for it. The russians though, they're willing to fight, it's about the only tool they got left. We thought we where playing chess, when it was actually a bar fight against an angry drunk. Also a good video explaining what Russia wants with Ukraine and why it struck now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE I don't have a solution to Ukraine anymore. Just hindsight. His Divine Shadow fucked around with this message at 08:17 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 08:13
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That would have been good, but yeah hindsight. We thought a softer approach would work and we waited to long on welcoming Ukraine in (because of previously mentioned issues with limited democracy and with corruption). Splitsoul, your views are absolutely valid, as much as I disagree and think you need to lay off the attitude. I've made my points. What I'm most pissed off about is all the young people Putin has sent to "practice" on the Ukrainian border, and then pressed them into fighting a pointless war. He's decimating a whole generation of Russians. KozmoNaut fucked around with this message at 08:48 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 08:45
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fwiw i very much suspect that a more aggressive rearmament of ukraine would've seen a russian invasion sooner. we *have* been pretty serious about arming the ukrainian military in the years since 2014; they're putting up much more of a fight now than then, though obviously there are other variables in play. the obama government's assessment from that period (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2016/03/18/the-obama-doctrine-and-ukraine/) - that ukraine was seen as a vital interest to russia, but not to the west, and that russia was always going to be willing and able to sacrifice more to keep it that way - is basically correct, i think. in hindsight i suspect that the last real chance to avoid war was in 2019/20 during zelenskij's ceasefire efforts, where we really should've backed him against his internal opponents. but i didn't see the all-out invasion coming, so this should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt if putin actually loses this war he's finished politically. i really don't see this ending without russia claiming victory, and with the sanctions as tight as they are at this point there's not that much cost for the russians in escalating from their relatively restrained mode of warfare thus far.
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Feb 28, 2022 09:06
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I didn't mean we should've rearmed ukrainer harder, I meant we should've explicitly said any incursions into ukraine would be met directly with european military forces to rebuff russian forces, there'd be european fighters in the ukraine attacking russian forces, even ground troops if needed. I don't think putin would've tried an invasion then, he'd risk WW3 then. I mean I know that kind of hardassed stance was basically impossible because the EU has (had) this view of itself as non threatening and everything could be done through the application of trade and business. So it's just hindsight
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Feb 28, 2022 09:33
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Even if Kiev falls. The Ukrainians could still use those weapons to make the country basically ungovernable by a Russian puppet regime. Wear out the troops that have to be stationed there, assassinate Russian officials. Just wear out the Russian presence until they have to withdraw.
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Feb 28, 2022 09:50
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KozmoNaut posted:Splitsoul, your views are absolutely valid, as much as I disagree and think you need to lay off the attitude. It's much easier to lay off the attitude if you stop the constant strawmanning of anyone who doesn't subscribe to your black&white world view.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:32
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Russian aggression broke this thread and I don't like it.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:41
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Putin is not Hitler, he just invades Europe for lebensraum and seeks to assimilate an independent country by force due to his perception that they're a lesser, weaker people. But I guess those peoples know racists, so it's all A-OK.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:24
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Speaking of obnoxious strawmanning.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:26
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TheRat posted:Speaking of obnoxious strawmanning. Oh please like if any of that horseshit about the Ukranians being neo-nazis served as anything but as a strawman. The situation we find ourselves in today has everything to do with Putin pulling the trigger on the invasion, the political situation of Ukraine does not matter anymore, what's going to matter is the untold suffering and bloodshed from a pointless war. Sweden is going to get hundreds of thousands of refugees regardless of how the war plays out, Putin has made us a party to this suffering.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:03
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Speaking of neo-nazis, Russia has apparently ordered the Wagner Group to hunt down Zelenskyy. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/volodymyr-zelensky-russian-mercenaries-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d You know, literally sending neo-nazis to "denazify" a country by murdering its Jewish president.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:10
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KozmoNaut posted:Speaking of neo-nazis, Russia has apparently ordered the Wagner Group to hunt down Zelenskyy. Look the only way to get rid of Nazis is sending in more Nazis. Fight fire with fire and never you mind that there is no fire except for the ones you’re igniting. These twisted firestarters
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Feb 28, 2022 13:23
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It's all Nazis, all the way down. But seriously, the average Ukrainian isn't a Nazi, even if parts of the government and army are. I think worrying about the invasion takes priority over figuring out who the Nazis are.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:26
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BonHair posted:It's all Nazis, all the way down. I could be wrong but I don't think there are nazis in the government, there are nazi militias that are fighting alongside the ukrainian military though and I think it's been proven that there's overlap and infiltration there.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:31
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The far-right did win one seat in the Rada in 2019, I think. Out of 450.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:35
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Randarkman posted:I could be wrong but I don't think there are nazis in the government, there are nazi militias that are fighting alongside the ukrainian military though and I think it's been proven that there's overlap and infiltration there. I am not sure where I got the idea that they have Nazis in the government, so I was probably wrong there. But not barely having Nazis in parliament, can Ukraine really be considered a modern European country?
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Feb 28, 2022 13:39
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KozmoNaut posted:The far-right did win one seat in the Rada in 2019, I think. Out of 450. BonHair posted:I am not sure where I got the idea that they have Nazis in the government, so I was probably wrong there.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:43
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Never again. For as long as I live. Do I want to hear about how Russia can take Sweden in 24 hours. Russia couldn't conquer the first floor of an IKEA in 24 hours.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:48
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fnox posted:Oh please like if any of that horseshit about the Ukranians being neo-nazis served as anything but as a strawman. The situation we find ourselves in today has everything to do with Putin pulling the trigger on the invasion, the political situation of Ukraine does not matter anymore, what's going to matter is the untold suffering and bloodshed from a pointless war. Sweden is going to get hundreds of thousands of refugees regardless of how the war plays out, Putin has made us a party to this suffering. I was responding specifically to the claim that Ukraine, contrary to corrupt and fascist Russia, was a freedom-loving liberal democracy that doesn't mistreat its own people. Of course it matters that we're shipping arms to modern day Dirlewanger Brigades. It's going to prolong the conflct and increase the suffering and bloodshed, not the opposite. His Divine Shadow posted:I didn't mean we should've rearmed ukrainer harder, I meant we should've explicitly said any incursions into ukraine would be met directly with european military forces to rebuff russian forces, there'd be european fighters in the ukraine attacking russian forces, even ground troops if needed. I don't think putin would've tried an invasion then, he'd risk WW3 then. You understand that this is a vice versa type deal, yes? KozmoNaut posted:Speaking of neo-nazis, Russia has apparently ordered the Wagner Group to hunt down Zelenskyy. Sure, if you take the claims of the Ukrainian government at face value. It also claims to have destroyed more Russian tanks in a few days than were destroyed in one of the largest tank battles of WW2. Randarkman posted:I could be wrong but I don't think there are nazis in the government, there are nazi militias that are fighting alongside the ukrainian military though and I think it's been proven that there's overlap and infiltration there. They're officially a part of the National Guard and have been since 2014, and the National Guard's own twitter just posted a video of them dipping bullets in lard before facing down Chechen "orcs", because Muslims operate on vampire logic, you see.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:11
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fnox posted:Lebensraum Let's not even begin to compare Putins poltics to those of Hitler. Doing so is cheapening the very real impact of Nazi ideology in european history. Nobody in Putins circle, not even Durgin, belives in ecological doomerism and racial struggle as a core tenant of foreign policy. This is the reactionairy politics of Solzjenitsyn and people stanning for Peter the Great, nothing more. Putin and his circle are more comparable to oldschool nationalism in Sweden that involves stanning for Caroleans like Karl X, which ironically is a nazi hobby horse in modern Sweden. Postorder Trollet89 fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 17:25
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