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see no weevil
Oct 31, 2019

Dapper_Swindler posted:

yeah i think shits going south for Putin at a quick pace and i dont think he can really win at this point. only "win". now he is trying to use a ton of bellorussian kids as meatshields now because he is a loving ghoul.

i dont think he will use nukes. but i do think he will try to fuel air bomb or some awful poo poo to Kiev or some other city as a "look me strong"

Yeah. You can firebomb a city to the ground, and do fundamentally the same damage as a nuke (sans radiation). However, the use of a nuke to do the same damage gets a loooooot more negative attention and is both a more immediate and steep escalation for the same amount of damage as you could get just firebombing/shooting with regular missiles.

Using nukes here would be an extremely bad move.

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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

1000 of the 44 million ukrainians are Nazis we must kill 400,000 ukrainians per 1 Nazi so they know we mean business.


The fires in Kyiv died down after russian was able to take the city because they needed nazism to burn.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

the popes toes posted:

I understand, thanks. But I'm not sure that Russia's imperial war can be anymore excused or even explained by sphere of influence analysis.

Russia's problem is that when their "sphere of influence" finally had a free choice, they ran in droves to NATO, their old imperialist nemesis. Rather than looking at how they could be a better partner in their own imperialist alliances, Russia instead chose to increase the beatings until morale improved.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


https://twitter.com/EnglishUkraine/status/1498127922527363075?s=20&t=Wi4N1AlCEr5vCm6PvQgUdw

https://twitter.com/EnglishUkraine/status/1498128313876893702?s=20&t=Wi4N1AlCEr5vCm6PvQgUdw

I can't tell where it is. I lived in the northwest outside the city though.

Rah!
Feb 21, 2006


Judakel posted:

The fact the morale isn't that high to begin with, what with handing out guns to random people, some of whom commit crimes with them, an oddly high number of saboteurs in Ukrainian uniform that look more and more like deserters, and the Mayor of Kyiv admitting that controlling the anxiety of his people is one of the bigger challenges right now. Well, at least not that high right now. Maybe it was to begin with...

Of course there will be anxiety during a war (especially among unarmed civilians who are facing artillery strikes and whatnot!) but Ukrainian morale seems pretty drat high in most of the videos I've seen over the past few days. Do you have a source on saboteurs being deserters?

DarklyDreaming
Apr 4, 2009

Fun scary

EscapeHere posted:

I'm not a military guy, but is there any chance the Russian fetish with sending in paratroopers is because the Ukrainians keep blowing bridges?

Authoritarian regimes and general fash-types have a long and proud history of being Weird About Paratroopers, because to them war is about spectacle, REAL MEN doing badass poo poo all day every day until they die.

The actual cost and plausibility of delivering armies by air is a triviality best left to bean-counters, not take-charge alpha men like them

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Vando posted:

Forgive me if I prefer to see war as something more than a sports game. You don't have to automatically pick a favourite and jump in with both feet, you can be a little more reserved than that.

Supporting people fighting against fascist aggression is nothing like seeing war as a sports game. This is one of the most flagrantly obtuse things I've ever read.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Tenchrono posted:

Theres no way the writers are so lazy they are using the “daylight paradrop” for both Russian and Belurussian arcs.

And just in time for new Ukranian jets to be in the air

https://youtu.be/Ag1o3koTLWM

TasogareNoKagi
Jul 11, 2013

Trump posted:

I'm still horribly confused as to where they are going to base them.

Assuming they're more MiG-29s, the plane doesn't give a gently caress where it's based. Remember this is the plane designed to work from crude airstrips, with shutoff doors and extra inlets on top of the wing to keep rocks from getting sucked into the engines.

Vando
Oct 26, 2007

stoats about

Trump posted:

I'm feeling really dumb about this question, but I just don't see what threat NATO presents, other as being a strong player that can oppose Russia's own imperialistic goals?
It's a really long way down the rabbit hole of the long shadow of the Cold War and it's functionally irrelevant to this conflict (outside of as a means of *extremely* flimsy justification from the Russian side), but if you start from the point of asking "would the USA prefer Russia didn't exist?" and could answer "yes" then you're off and running. You've got a long way to run, but there *is* a path.

e: also it's really interesting the "Russia has legitimate concerns!" crew stopped responding to me after I mentioned Russian imperialism in the first place, it's almost as if they know...

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Vando posted:

Forgive me if I prefer to see war as something more than a sports game. You don't have to automatically pick a favourite and jump in with both feet, you can be a little more reserved than that.

loving please. You are watching a fascist state invade another developed country, you are watching that fascist state murder the loving population of that developed country and threaten the world with nuclear war.

Forgive me for thinking that you might give a poo poo about this, instead of being, “but America” while the Ukraine burns.

I am just giving you a quick loving heuristic about why, as a Marxist, I am okay with NATO standing up to Putin.

Because in the final analysis the fascism in the form of cleptocapitalist mafiosos leading rouge nuclear powers that Putin represents is infinitely more violent and dangerous to the future of humanity than NATO is.

If you think otherwise, I don’t know what to tell you. Go protest for Putin to be let in charge of the world, and see how well the burden of that yoke does for you.

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

Despera posted:

China has a famous grain shortage right now

They've been hoarding for a while.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Vando posted:

It's a really long way down the rabbit hole of the long shadow of the Cold War and it's functionally irrelevant to this conflict (outside of as a means of *extremely* flimsy justification from the Russian side), but if you start from the point of asking "would the USA prefer Russia didn't exist?" and could answer "yes" then you're off and running. You've got a long way to run, but there *is* a path.

..Wouldn't Russia also benefit in the same void where we didn't exist, by the same logic, and actively work towards OUR marginialization?

And that the ACTUAL victims of the Cold War were those being colonized?

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Vando posted:

It's a really long way down the rabbit hole of the long shadow of the Cold War and it's functionally irrelevant to this conflict (outside of as a means of *extremely* flimsy justification from the Russian side), but if you start from the point of asking "would the USA prefer Russia didn't exist?" and could answer "yes" then you're off and running. You've got a long way to run, but there *is* a path.

What the hell are you talking about?

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




Vando posted:

It's a really long way down the rabbit hole of the long shadow of the Cold War and it's functionally irrelevant to this conflict (outside of as a means of *extremely* flimsy justification from the Russian side), but if you start from the point of asking "would the USA prefer Russia didn't exist?" and could answer "yes" then you're off and running. You've got a long way to run, but there *is* a path.

I feel like that kind of thinking just ends up at "Would <literally any country let's be real here> prefer no other state except itself exist...?"

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Red posted:

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1498036451631513601

The hope is that Russian troops just start throwing their gear in a ditch and walk home.

outside conservatives and morons. i dont see anyone blaming the russian people. i just feel bad for the russian soldiers for the most part outside the loving war criminal battalion that kaydov has.



see no weevil posted:

Yeah. You can firebomb a city to the ground, and do fundamentally the same damage as a nuke (sans radiation). However, the use of a nuke to do the same damage gets a loooooot more negative attention and is both a more immediate and steep escalation for the same amount of damage as you could get just firebombing/shooting with regular missiles.

Using nukes here would be an extremely bad move.


a fuel air bomb or any kind of WW2 level indiscriminate bombing would probably ratchet the sanctions and probably stiffen the Ukrainian resolve. terror bombing or mass bombing of cities in general doesnt really work.


WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

1000 of the 44 million ukrainians are Nazis we must kill 400,000 ukrainians per 1 Nazi so they know we mean business.


The fires in Kyiv died down after russian was able to take the city because they needed nazism to burn.

apperently the azovs already got overun or some poo poo awhile ago so. gently caress em, no excuses now.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Trump posted:

I'm feeling really dumb about this question, but I just don't see what threat NATO presents, other as being a strong player that can oppose Russia's own imperialistic goals?

You answered your own question.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


sean10mm posted:

Russia has violated Baby's First Airborne Doctrine Lessons so hard in this war that they just have to be deluded into thinking that if they show up with their rad berets everyone will surrender immediately.

What is Baby's First Airborne ...? I know nothing about war.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Vorenus posted:

Waiting for pictures of Armatas killed by Javelins because the crew forgot to turn on the APS (or because the Afghanit isn't as good as Russia claims).

I know it would never happen, but I'm imagining Poland announcing they've just sold Ukraine an entire airbase.

If the reports were correct, there is exactly one (1) Armata that will face battle near Kharkiv today. Even if Afganit works perfectly, that just means you have to shoot at it more than once. It'll run out of charges pretty fast.

Chimp_On_Stilts
Aug 31, 2004
Holy Hell.
This moment in history is grim so I am enjoying whatever shreds of levity can be had.

This tweet made me audibly bust out laughing:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1498102477043888128

Vando
Oct 26, 2007

stoats about

TulliusCicero posted:

..Wouldn't Russia also benefit in the same void where we didn't exist, by the same logic?

For sure, like it's not a good or constructive route to go down, but it's a route that exists.

Like, this whole line of debate is because the suspiciously Putin-apologetic types got all "oh, are you calling him insane?" about my accusations of Russian imperialism being the direct cause of this invasion. Somehow giving those guys the most charitable reading possible and still dismissing it has turned me into a pro-Putin stooge so good work everyone, really level-headed thinking going on tonight.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Young Freud posted:

Javelin does have a direct-attack profile, where it'll come down directly on a target at an angle instead of flying over and dropping down within a few meters.

ERA is a bit useless against them, because the Javelin has a tandem-warhead specifically designed to defeat ERA. The first charge will detonate, explosively deflecting or clearing out the ERA plate, then allow the second, larger charge behind it to contact the armor and get a proper detonation.

Well, ERA is kinda useless against top-attack missiles in general because the roof armor on a T-72/64/80/90 (and all tanks in general) is only 20-40mm of steel. Explosive Reactive Armor works on a HEAT round by disrupting the focused stream of molten metal and plasma the shaped charge creates before it contacts the surface of the vehicle's armor - basically by throwing a sheet of metal into this stream at high speed to break it up and eat some of the kinetic energy away before it contacts the actual armor so it's less focused and less effective at carving a hole through it. This works great when you have a thick 500mm block of composite armor against a warhead that zap through 750mm of said armor - slapping some ERA on top might make the difference!

Works a lot less great when you have 30mm of plain ol' steel behind it against that same projectile.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Feb 28, 2022

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

Arsenic Lupin posted:

What is Baby's First Airborne ...? I know nothing about war.

They dropped airborne units far behind enemy lines in broad daylight with no fire support right next to enemy reserves that just ran them over with tanks and shot down their transports with shoulder fired missiles.

Abner Assington
Mar 13, 2005

For I am a sinner in the hands of an angry god. Bloody Mary, full of vodka, blessed are you among cocktails. Pray for me now, at the hour of my death, which I hope is soon.

Amen.

Vintersorg posted:

I hate that Shaun King is posting about Azov fighters as if they are the entire army and pulling a “two sides - Putin was right!”
Edited for brevity. Shaun King is a grifting rear end in a top hat.

DarklyDreaming
Apr 4, 2009

Fun scary

Arsenic Lupin posted:

What is Baby's First Airborne ...? I know nothing about war.

Paradrops usually only work as a means to outflank the enemy, and even then you're looking at heavy casualties. You either drop them far, FAR behind enemy lines where no one sees them coming and they spend days disabling rail lines and such, or you use them the same day there's a massive infantry assault on the ground. Doing it the way Russia has done this past week is how you throw men into wood-chippers

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Have the Ukrainian webcams livestream on and it's matching what I've seen on Twitter - a ton less shelling in Kyiv tonight. Last night I was hearing engine/firing sounds every other minute or so. Right now it's pretty much silent.

It's eerie.

Upgrade
Jun 19, 2021



I think it's valid to say that some people indulge in bystander war fetishism (when you study history these types of people are the worst, those that think history is memorizing details about Nazi weapons and not, you know, understanding why those weapons were made in the first place), and there's even a little bit of that in this thread, but cheering Russia's imperialist war of aggression going poorly isn't that.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

Arsenic Lupin posted:

What is Baby's First Airborne ...? I know nothing about war.

Usually it's "When you're thinking about planning a paradrop, stop. Just don't do it.". The risks are insane.

Virigoth
Apr 28, 2009

Corona rules everything around me
C.R.E.A.M. get the virus
In the ICU y'all......



TheDeadlyShoe posted:

Usually it's "When you're thinking about planning a paradrop, stop. Just don't do it.". The risks are insane.

Counterpoint: Insane dictators don’t give a gently caress.

Vando
Oct 26, 2007

stoats about

Upgrade posted:

I think it's valid to say that some people indulge in bystander war fetishism (when you study history these types of people are the worst, those that think history is memorizing details about Nazi weapons and not, you know, understanding why those weapons were made in the first place), and there's even a little bit of that in this thread, but cheering Russia's imperialist war of aggression going poorly isn't that.

Yeah I'm pleased that Putin isn't getting to realise his grand ambitions, that's for drat sure. I'm just kinda sad it takes a bunch of kids from two nations dying for us all to see it, that's all.

Zhanism
Apr 1, 2005
Death by Zhanism. So Judged.

KitConstantine posted:

Have the Ukrainian webcams livestream on and it's matching what I've seen on Twitter - a ton less shelling in Kyiv tonight. Last night I was hearing engine/firing sounds every other minute or so. Right now it's pretty much silent.

It's eerie.

It's the calm before the storm. They will unleash everything they have vs kyiv

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Javelins are loving terrifyingly eye opening though. I mean they are rendering tanks non existent with zero need to operation depth like a tank on tank fight would be. You can have a ukrabians farmer with a blow torch in one hand to scrap the tank and a javelin in the other simultaneously puffing a cigarette and score a kill on an as of the sanctions irreplaceable piece of military equipment.

Christe Eleison
Feb 1, 2010

Abner Assington posted:

Edited for brevity. Shaun King is a grifting rear end in a top hat.

I don’t know how he still manages to have multiple platforms.

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

Upgrade posted:

I think it's valid to say that some people indulge in bystander war fetishism (when you study history these types of people are the worst, those that think history is memorizing details about Nazi weapons and not, you know, understanding why those weapons were made in the first place), and there's even a little bit of that in this thread, but cheering Russia's imperialist war of aggression going poorly isn't that.

War is a fascinating phenomenon. It's the absolute extreme act a human being can be involved with. I'm (was?) one of those persons you mention, and I also remember how many times we were told that exact thing on 1. semester history in uni.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Javelins are loving terrifyingly eye opening though. I mean they are rendering tanks non existent with zero need to operation depth like a tank on tank fight would be. You can have a ukrabians farmer with a blow torch in one hand to scrap the tank and a javelin in the other simultaneously puffing a cigarette and score a kill on an as of the sanctions irreplaceable piece of military equipment.

Everytime the Javelin is mentioned I have to remind you that the NLAW from the UK have been doing just as much work. Two very effective weapons that Ukraine got hold on just in time.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Red posted:

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1498036451631513601

The hope is that Russian troops just start throwing their gear in a ditch and walk home.

I'd like to believe it, but I worry that the nature of Twitter is that we see individual anecdotes, sometimes the exceptions rather than the rules (because the exceptions are more interesting), and things that cater to what we already want to believe.

But we'll see--I think pressure within Russia is the most likely way this ends positively.

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Feb 28, 2022

redbrouw
Nov 14, 2018

ACAB

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Supporting people fighting against fascist aggression is nothing like seeing war as a sports game. This is one of the most flagrantly obtuse things I've ever read.

If not for moral reasons, why have I owned a maple leafs jersey this long?

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

Chimp_On_Stilts posted:

This moment in history is grim so I am enjoying whatever shreds of levity can be had.

This tweet made me audibly bust out laughing:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1498102477043888128

Is that Zelensky dressed as a MP Eva?

Barrel Cactaur
Oct 6, 2021

ZombieLenin posted:

Look, NATO is an imperialist tool, and even more a tool for capitalism. In this case, it is arrayed against fascist aggression, which makes it okay to root for.

Just like it was okay to root for Stalin during the Second World War.

Going to object that NATO is a militaristic tool, not an imperialist tool. I don't think its ever established a hostile extractive system on foreign territory. It encourages military interventions, but claiming thats imperialism is very, very weak. To be clear, that is still very bad but it largely lacks the malicious greed of true empire-building.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Trump posted:

War is a fascinating phenomenon. It's the absolute extreme act a human being can be involved with. I'm (was?) one of those persons you mention, and I also remember how many times we were told that exact thing on 1. semester history in uni.

Everytime the Javelin is mentioned I have to remind you that the NLAW from the UK have been doing just as much work. Two very effective weapons that Ukraine got hold on just in time.

Same statement but with an nlaw. They aren't hard weapons to use..tanks are not easy to use effectively and really hard to use against light infantry that can only be described as hunter kill teams since theres just so many loving AT weapons in use.

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EscapeHere
Jan 16, 2005
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498120755976015874

What is Rubio trying to achieve with his doom-tweeting?

Is he intentionally trying to freak people out?

If I'm reading this correctly he's basically saying we're in Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 but no longer dealing with a rational actor with exit strategies.

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