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Melthir posted:How much rubles can I get for ISK? Realistically doing some RMT shenanigans to exchange your billions of worthless video game currency for whatever in devalued Russian currency might benefit you in the long run since it's probably going to drop another 20% then bounce around. It's not like Russia suddenly doesn't have an industrial base anymore., theyre just expecting to be insular for a while.
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Feb 28, 2022 07:28
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Icon Of Sin posted:
Has this been confirmed? Not saying you're wrong, just I never saw any more about it and it gets hard to keep up.
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Feb 28, 2022 07:33
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Duzzy Funlop posted:Also, I'm not religious, but I'm pretty sure I'm subconsciouly praying for today's peace talks being fruitful, and the reason for the stopped advance on Kyiv. Not sure on your two explanations, Guessing that explanation 1: "minimum safe distance" 2: [del]"Well, these occupied areas aren't going to war crime themselves"[/del] Bringing up artillery to pound the city into rubble and dust. There's also 3, 4 , 5 and 6: 3: They've reached the limit of their supply; some figures were saying thousands of lost road tankers and trucks and that's going to have a material materiel impact. I think this is the most likely reason. 4: Mud. Russia probably wanted to invade over hardpack and got slop. The detente may be them working out where they want their forces to hold until soil conditions improve. 5: Morale and mutiny. 5:24 is the ratio of officers and NCOs to junior enlisted in a BMP platoon. 6: War's over, stay here to fly the flag long enough for propaganda to spin this and then come home neglected nobodies. Looks at palm cards Heroes. It says heroes. IPCRESS fucked around with this message at 08:32 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 07:46
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Grand Fromage posted:It seems hard to believe they could lose (the invasion, not counting the insurgency driving them out which seems certain if they stayed to occupy) with how much of a numerical superiority they have. But it sure does seem like their army sucks rear end. I thought this at first too, but they only amassed around 190,000 troops to attack about the same number of defenders. Classic Napoleonic ratios would require 3:1 for conventional force on force, and anywhere from 6:1 to 10:1 for urban operations. And it very much seems like the theories of prosecuting a conventional war (air superiority, logistics, overwhelming your enemy, and massing fires) are holding true, but have been cheerfully ignored by Russian planners. Every schoolhouse in the US Army will be analyzing this for years. psydude fucked around with this message at 08:18 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 08:15
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Thought about how this will age: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzvbUpKU4eE "Complete air superiority" welp lol
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Feb 28, 2022 08:21
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498191746290925569 I don't know poo poo about radio encryption, but isn't this an incredibly bad idea?
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Feb 28, 2022 08:23
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Not for them at least.
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Feb 28, 2022 08:24
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If what we're seeing is true it seems like armor is just a deathtrap too. Or do their tanks/APCs particularly suck? Or is the army apparently forgetting they need to bring fuel causing a problem that an army not run by Mr Magoo wouldn't have? I haven't read a lot of modern military stuff in a while but tanks don't seem all that useful if there's a random dude with a Javelin around every corner. And the missiles are a whole lot cheaper.
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Feb 28, 2022 08:26
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Grand Fromage posted:If what we're seeing is true it seems like armor is just a deathtrap too. Or do their tanks/APCs particularly suck? Or is the army apparently forgetting they need to bring fuel causing a problem that an army not run by Mr Magoo wouldn't have? I haven't read a lot of modern military stuff in a while but tanks don't seem all that useful if there's a random dude with a Javelin around every corner. And the missiles are a whole lot cheaper. Its largely due to them deploying the tanks without infantry support. Anyone can walk up with AT weapons and take a shot. The Ukrainians mostly have the same armor/tanks. They're just using them much smarter. Honestly the parallels between this and the first Chechen war are astonishing.
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Feb 28, 2022 08:39
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https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498191541675958273?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet From the way it's written, it sounds like the Ukrainians still have Hostomel? Or maybe they're just talking about how their earlier success at holding it and then disabling the runways stalled the Russians.
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Feb 28, 2022 08:40
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Yeah, tanks without infantry support means the folks in ambush aren't getting routed out, which means they can make it rain Javelins without much risk.
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Feb 28, 2022 08:41
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https://twitter.com/adamsculthorpe/status/1498200857917198339?s=21
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Feb 28, 2022 08:44
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psydude posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498191541675958273?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet My interpretation is that Hostomel and surrounding areas are active combat flashpoints. The Ukrainians don't even have to hold the airport, they can simply shut it down by keeping the area around the runway contested.
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Feb 28, 2022 08:52
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If that's true, painting an invasion Z on your tractor is extremely funny in it's own right.
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Feb 28, 2022 08:53
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Apparently it's just a parking lot for discount armor right now. https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1498083374656802816
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Feb 28, 2022 09:09
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Wasabi the J posted:Thought about how this will age: Honestly that video is more or less bang on how everyone thought it would go. They didn't start with the 2 day bombardment mentioned, and they are now trying the Odessa sealift which the video calls risky. What's the range on a Javelin, and what would it do to a landing craft?
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Feb 28, 2022 09:16
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https://twitter.com/jathansadowski/...ingawful.com%2F
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Feb 28, 2022 09:34
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I. loving. Hate. Cryptobros so much.
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Feb 28, 2022 09:47
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Stravag posted:I. loving. Hate. Cryptobros so much. It’s worse when you have to see it on the Jersey of your favorite basketball team and on the floor at the Wells Fargo Center.
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Feb 28, 2022 09:53
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https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498087768823635968
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Feb 28, 2022 10:07
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:Honestly that video is more or less bang on how everyone thought it would go. They didn't start with the 2 day bombardment mentioned, and they are now trying the Odessa sealift which the video calls risky. Depends on where they're landing. If the shore is too shallow they'll have to ditch the bigger landing craft and go with smaller ones that would be an easier target for direct fire weapons. Bigger landing craft wouldn't be too affected by an ATGM, but their draft is obviously deeper. For example, here's one of the medium landing craft the US Army used to use:  They're quite large and can make it to shore, but may run into issues if the slope is too shallow.  These are the small landing craft used by the US Army. As you can see, an RPG could mess them up. I've ridden in them before (when I was in a watercraft unit), and they're quite fast, but have basically no protection. I'm sure the Russians have comparable equipment. Odessa is of course a deep water harbor, but it would be very easy to defend. Then again given their overconfidence so far, I wouldn't rule out them trying to pull right up to the port and offload everyone. psydude fucked around with this message at 10:23 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 10:12
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:
Russians use large landing ships, with organic Grad MLRS, medium artillery and autocannon, so should be able to thouroghly suppress their own landing beaches even without escorts. But then again, there seems to be a lot of things the Russians should be able to do that they can't or won't actually do, so  The Black Sea Fleet has some each of these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha-class_landing_ship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alligator-class_landing_ship and I seem to remember seeing a tweet from the Bosporos a couple of weeks ago, indicating reinforcement of more LCTs from the Baltic fleet.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:15
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Caconym posted:Russians use large landing ships, with organic Grad MLRS, medium artillery and autocannon, so should be able to thouroghly suppress their own landing beaches even without escorts. Their doctrine must presume they've landed troops via helicopter or airborne insertion ahead of time (which it sounds like they've attempted, and failed at, already), because holy poo poo those things are floating write-offs if they plan on driving them right up to the port.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:28
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:Honestly that video is more or less bang on how everyone thought it would go. They didn't start with the 2 day bombardment mentioned, and they are now trying the Odessa sealift which the video calls risky. Yes. In the build up of the invasion, it seems like every comment both predicted that Putin would never invade Ukraine, and that if he did, the Ukrainians would be powerless to stop him. We ragged on Putin for huffing his own farts, overestimating his troops and underestimating the Ukrainians. But that seems to have been the genuine opinion of most "experts" before the war, so in a way, you can't even fault him for this particular miscalculation.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:37
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psydude posted:Their doctrine must presume they've landed troops via helicopter or airborne insertion ahead of time (which it sounds like they've attempted, and failed at, already), because holy poo poo those things are floating write-offs if they plan on driving them right up to the port. They're meant to go in at remote beaches, they don't need ports. And the coast around Odessa is nice beaches for miles on both sides. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXC3UlVMKoQ So land a full BTG on each side of the city, and then assault.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:03
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Spoggerific posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498191746290925569 This is absolutely insane for any professional military, holy poo poo. Unbelievable, lol.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:03
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Yeah like, I wouldn't even use unencrypted channels, and I basically only chat with my friends about death metal and beer.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:07
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Torrannor posted:Yes. In the build up of the invasion, it seems like every comment both predicted that Putin would never invade Ukraine, and that if he did, the Ukrainians would be powerless to stop him. We ragged on Putin for huffing his own farts, overestimating his troops and underestimating the Ukrainians. But that seems to have been the genuine opinion of most "experts" before the war, so in a way, you can't even fault him for this particular miscalculation. I feel like you can't even fault the experts for that assumption. I vividly recall the time in the pre-2000s when the ongoing joke was that Russia wouldn't even have fuel to let their nukes fly. This was followed by 20 years of Russia moving towards the point where they had half of Europe in their pocket on energy-dependence alone and we're making stupid bank connected to those deals. Granted, Putins Regime is a big ol corruption-grift, but with the expansion and modernization of its military, there was a very believable explanation of where some of that money was going. I always had Putin figured out as the type of autocrat that would have a good feel and instinct of which farts to huff and which bullshit reports from his sycophants to believe, because I kinda doubt he would have went down this road if he was fully aware of the absolutely desolate state of his armed forces that would make him lose face so goddamn hard. I can only assume they corruptioned so comically hard that literally all of that good oil and gas money disappeared into pockets of every single officer on the way down the chain.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:07
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KozmoNaut posted:Yeah like, I wouldn't even use unencrypted channels, and I basically only chat with my friends about death metal and beer. Tactical level comms doesn't really need to be encrypted. Any Intel gained is very perishable.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:09
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Duzzy Funlop posted:I feel like you can't even fault the experts for that assumption. I vividly recall the time in the pre-2000s when the ongoing joke was that Russia wouldn't even have fuel to let their nukes fly. I wonder if he just lost touch with reality. I mean let's be honest here - he had POTUS eating out of his hand. Maybe he just genuinely thought he was that good.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:10
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Torrannor posted:Yes. In the build up of the invasion, it seems like every comment both predicted that Putin would never invade Ukraine, and that if he did, the Ukrainians would be powerless to stop him. We ragged on Putin for huffing his own farts, overestimating his troops and underestimating the Ukrainians. But that seems to have been the genuine opinion of most "experts" before the war, so in a way, you can't even fault him for this particular miscalculation. I definitely fault him. He's a head of state with an intelligence apparatus, he should have better Intel and a factual assessment of his military capabilities. Instead, he's replaced anyone who might push back with sycophantic yes-men. He replaced the guy who was trying to reform their military and crack down on corruption in their MIC because the corruption was beneficial to him and his friends, and to avoid the guy gaining any political clout. It's the classic psychotic autocrat blunder.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:12
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vuk83 posted:Tactical level comms doesn't really need to be encrypted. Any Intel gained is very perishable. Lmao that's not true at all, especially since it mentions HF which would suggest longer range, not just squad/platoon level comms.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:16
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The US made ample use of tactical SIGINT in Syria and Afghanistan. It was particularly effective against ISIS.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:25
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Looks like Russia might be going Grozny now. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498234139551715329 Video spoilered and embed removed for being a MRLS barrage in the middle of a city near residential areas.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:26
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vuk83 posted:Tactical level comms doesn't really need to be encrypted. Any Intel gained is very perishable. this is an exceptionally incorrect hot take, unless you also consider the operators perishable. https://twitter.com/MellowoodHill/status/1498201864805957634?s=20&t=Q0feAOqbGgQvQHPdSrMHyQ
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Feb 28, 2022 11:45
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brains posted:this is an exceptionally incorrect hot take, unless you also consider the operators perishable. Given the way things are going for Russia, he's probably right.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:46
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Caconym posted:Russians use large landing ships, with organic Grad MLRS, medium artillery and autocannon, so should be able to thouroghly suppress their own landing beaches even without escorts. Where are the two Zubrs? In the Baltics?
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Feb 28, 2022 12:05
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vuk83 posted:Tactical level comms doesn't really need to be encrypted. Any Intel gained is very perishable. Nope, FUP's, OBS crossing, FLOT, Ressuply Details, C/S etc etc all transmitted, all incredibly valuable and not that perishable.
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Feb 28, 2022 12:10
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aphid_licker posted:Where are the two Zubrs? In the Baltics? Don't know, but 5 Ropuchas and 1 Ivan Gren passed into the Black Sea two weeks ago, along with whatever they already had there that's a hefty amphib force. https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3166350/ukraine-crisis-six-russian-amphibious-landing-ships Each and every one can land 10 MBTs or 13 APCs and 340 troops.
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Feb 28, 2022 12:22
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vuk83 posted:Tactical level comms doesn't really need to be encrypted. Any Intel gained is very perishable.
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