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szary posted:The Georgian government is making GBS threads its collective pants because they know they are next in line after Ukraine. To me it sounds like this is the best time to join the party. Ukraine can fight back better than Georgia can. With how much heat is on Russia right now, I'd be looking at this as an opportunity.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:43
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He's given no indication that this is plan right now, but Putin can easily probably gobble up the two bullshit republics, get a promise to never join NATO, and call it victory without too much snickering from the people that matter. Military elites will be pissed at the hall-assed invasion plan and humiliation, oligarchs will be pissed at the new sanctions, but he has both groups pretty firmly under control. Average Russians will notice a few crazy months on the news cycle, and maybe some pain in their paychecks for a bit, some families will have KIA members, but he'll come out intact. I mean, he did successfully expand the border of his country, it's not too difficult to spin that into a win. The phrase "Special military operation" rather than war gives him an offramp here as well. He can sue for peace at any time and get "peace with honor" pretty easily. The west will still loving hate his rear end, as will Ukraine, but that's priced in at this point. So he has a very clear out of this that should be acceptable to him, and will for the near future. But here's the thing I worry about: there's a very real chance that as the war and the sanctions drag pn, and the pain gets deeper and felt by more, he may perceive his position as more precarious. And then the calculus gets a lot rougher and scarier. And then we get into real fuckin' bad waters, if he feels that his political and literal survival is at stake here.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:43
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McCloud posted:Did this get linked yet?
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Feb 28, 2022 10:46
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Even Luxembourg has decided to give military aid to Ukraine too: https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/1870888.html A surprisingly-not-irrelevant 100 NLAWs along with "some" jeeps and... 15 tents. I wonder what Iceland will contribute, hakarl? Or maybe that would be considered a banned chemical weapon.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:47
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Shibawanko posted:i really hope they do seriously negotiate, making some concessions to russia, like giving them crimea or autonomy for the two bullshit "republics" in the east as a guarantee of neutrality without regime change would suck for ukraine but is still better than a long war. i'm afraid russia will probably insist on replacing zelenskyy with a puppet though Offer independence for the two "breakaway" republics after a referendum under UN supervision. Russia will never go for it, but it hits all the self-determination notes you need for UN support.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:48
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Fill Baptismal posted:He's given no indication that this is plan right now, but Putin can easily probably gobble up the two bullshit republics, get a promise to never join NATO, and call it victory without too much snickering from the people that matter. Military elites will be pissed at the hall-assed invasion plan and humiliation, oligarchs will be pissed at the new sanctions, but he has both groups pretty firmly under control. Average Russians will notice a few crazy months on the news cycle, and maybe some pain in their paychecks for a bit, some families will have KIA members, but he'll come out intact. I mean, he did successfully expand the border of his country, it's not too difficult to spin that into a win. The phrase "Special military operation" rather than war gives him an offramp here as well. He can sue for peace at any time and get "peace with honor" pretty easily. The west will still loving hate his rear end, as will Ukraine, but that's priced in at this point. So he has a very clear out of this that should be acceptable to him, and will for the near future. Would Ukraine actually go for that? That deal probably wouldn't go over well.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:48
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Saladman posted:Even Luxembourg has decided to give military aid to Ukraine too: Cod fishing boats
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Feb 28, 2022 10:49
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https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1498225141322506241 e: I just want to thank everyone in this thread for educating me and keeping me informed with facts, as when I started following all of this, I had some very bad takes and a very bad opening post in the other thread (a direct result of being sucked into a bad content bubble elsewhere). I mostly lurk here, but I digest every post and often cross post news to other places. fuctifino fucked around with this message at 11:00 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 10:49
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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498203594524602369 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498220414300045319 Other Russian hardware moving: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498224016733179906 if Western intel agencies were aware of this, that may explain the hurried timetable to resupply MiGs to the UAF
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Feb 28, 2022 10:50
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Yureina posted:Would Ukraine actually go for that? That deal probably wouldn't go over well. It would depend on the extent of the territory taken, but honestly, if they only took the portions that are already de facto control of Russia for a while in exchange for withdrawing, that's probably one of the better deals they could realistically get. Zelensky has straight up floated the possibility of guaranteeing not joining NATO until literally days ago. Then again, these are the days where where everything changes in a manner of hours.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:52
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Fill Baptismal posted:It would depend on the extent of the territory taken, but honestly, if they only took the portions that are already de facto control of Russia for a while in exchange for withdrawing, that's probably one of the better deals they could realistically get. That was before the invasion began, wasn't it? As you say, things can and are changing rather quickly.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:54
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Fill Baptismal posted:Zelensky has straight up floated the possibility of guaranteeing not joining NATO until literally days ago. Then again, these are the days where where everything changes in a manner of hours. While I'm sure he would love the EU to commit fully to jumping in to the defense of Ukraine, his recent calls for Ukraine to immediately join the EU could also be part of a bargaining plan, establishing ground they can give up in negotiations.
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Feb 28, 2022 10:56
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ronya posted:
This, combined with the withdrawal of NATO aircraft from the borders and the supposed release of prisoners to fight seems to hint that the situation is becoming somewhat critical. TheRat fucked around with this message at 11:01 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 10:58
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Russia should just auction off some of the kompromat we all know they have. I'd chip in $5 to find out if  !
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Feb 28, 2022 10:59
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the popes toes posted:It was better when they started. They really didn't believe it would last this long. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzLT6_TQmq8
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Feb 28, 2022 10:59
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TheRat posted:The entire post is 100% propaganda. It's understandable propaganda, but there's no reason to believe any of it has anything to do with reality. I could believe those numbers being somewhere in the ball park of the losses to date. They maybe biased, even "padded", but they don't look to me like 100% fantasy, at least from what I can tell from following the admittedly murky battle reports. Of course it's hard to tell and we may never know the true numbers. jmnmu fucked around with this message at 11:03 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 11:00
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is the withdrawal of NATO aircraft proven? I read some mutterings about transponders and it may have been calculated that the effect of not knowing where the observation aircraft is loitering may outweigh the deterrent effect of knowing it is there, given that one already knows it is there
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Feb 28, 2022 11:01
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498203594524602369 They called for citizens to leave Grozny before they leveled it for the second time, claiming that anyone left must be a combatant. Georgia knows they're probably the consolation prize if Russia decides Ukraine is too hot to handle.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:02
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https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1498236941459939328
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Feb 28, 2022 11:02
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ronya posted:is the withdrawal of NATO aircraft proven? I read some mutterings about transponders and it may have been calculated that the effect of not knowing where the observation aircraft is loitering may outweigh the deterrent effect of knowing it is there, given that one already knows it is there I don't think we have any official sources for it no.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:04
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ronya posted:is the withdrawal of NATO aircraft proven? I read some mutterings about transponders and it may have been calculated that the effect of not knowing where the observation aircraft is loitering may outweigh the deterrent effect of knowing it is there, given that one already knows it is there No.  The skies did empty earlier today and it looked like the aircrafts patrol stations were drawn back, dunno why. But they're back in full power.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:06
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lagidnam posted:I wonder which company in the DAX got hit the hardest from the sanctions? cross-post from the german D&D thread showing deutsche bank taking a hit to share price (because it's going to be temporarily harder to launder russian oligarch money)
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Feb 28, 2022 11:08
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McCloud posted:This seems like a real bad idea to me, but what do I know, I don't have a degree in finance The Russian cabinet's economic minister has a degree at Perm University. There are 2 specific economic cabniet ministers for the far East but they seem like political appointees.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:09
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quote:Russian companies with dollar-denominated listings in London plunged on Monday after the West moved to cut some Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system. Sberbank SBER, -61.83% dropped 75%, and Lukoil LKOD, -49.98% fell 58%. Rosneft Oil ROSN, -40.62% dropped 41% as BP said it would exit its minority stake. Gazprom Neft GAZ, -23.95%, the oil producing subsidiary of Gazprom, dropped 25%, and PhosAgro PHOR, -66.20% skidded 55%.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:10
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The video is widely shared, but that's an observation that didn't occur to me: https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498235463773138948 https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1498239367999012864 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498237773022646272 Okhtyrka is on the outskirts of Kharkiv. Also: dog 
ronya fucked around with this message at 11:14 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 11:12
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ronya posted:
You know what, gently caress Putin.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:16
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https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1498241969746759683?t=MC0EgrUuswMQvpnz59mQ_A&s=19 I feel like this is really not going according to plan cr0y fucked around with this message at 11:30 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 11:27
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I wish I could give that dog a hug. 
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Feb 28, 2022 11:29
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cr0y posted:https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1498241969746759683?t=MC0EgrUuswMQvpnz59mQ_A&s=19 Those guys have been working hard, they deserve a day off
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Feb 28, 2022 11:30
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The actual meeting didnt start until 10 minutes ago apparently
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Feb 28, 2022 11:37
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cr0y posted:https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1498241969746759683?t=MC0EgrUuswMQvpnz59mQ_A&s=19 Probably hoping something comes out of the peace talks that leads to the easing of some sanctions, but I don't think the boot is getting taken from their throat without a full withdrawal.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:39
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Saladman posted:Even Luxembourg has decided to give military aid to Ukraine too: I'm guessing that a lot of these donations from smaller NATO countries comprise their entire inventory of that particular item. That was implied when Denmark donated NLAWs as well. It makes sense, as there is little chance these countries will need anti-tank weaponry any time soon, and in fact the inventory might just expire (or be spent in exercises) without being used anyway. I wonder if we'll also see a significant increase in military production in NATO countries. How else will Germany spend the massive amount of money they promised?
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Feb 28, 2022 11:39
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Trump posted:The actual meeting didnt start until 10 minutes ago apparently Norwegian TV claims to be broadcasting live from the meeting room and there's nobody sat at the table still
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Feb 28, 2022 11:40
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Athas posted:I wonder if we'll also see a significant increase in military production in NATO countries. How else will Germany spend the massive amount of money they promised? Dude, Germany might have been the country that yelled the loudest, but all around there has been support for increasing defense budgets. I'm 100% sure the European Defense Union will be created. The same with shared command structures of standing units, like NATO used during the cold war
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Feb 28, 2022 11:45
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TheRat posted:Norwegian TV claims to be broadcasting live from the meeting room and there's nobody sat at the table still It's going to be public? Cool, did't expect that
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Feb 28, 2022 11:46
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steinrokkan posted:It's going to be public? Cool, did't expect that They'll almost certainly shoo the cameras out when it actually starts
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Feb 28, 2022 11:46
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Re: Germany increased defence spending -- Germany's military is in a shambles for various reasons but it's largely not due to a lack of money (they already have a huge budget, relatively speaking). ideally the 100bn extra would have instead gone towards reforming/supporting the energy sector, but regardless of where the money ends up (the caymans) i'd say the gesture still represents a fairly significant shift in the german political position towards its armed forces and its military role within europe.. but let's see how sustained all these responses are, only time will tell
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Feb 28, 2022 11:52
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Europe must be unified under a strong German military. Wait, that can't be right...
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Feb 28, 2022 11:55
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Failed Imagineer posted:Europe must be unified under a strong German military. It might be cool to have the Germans save Europe rather than blow it up.
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Feb 28, 2022 11:58
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boofhead posted:Re: Germany increased defence spending -- Germany's military is in a shambles for various reasons but it's largely not due to a lack of money (they already have a huge budget, relatively speaking). ideally the 100bn extra would have instead gone towards reforming/supporting the energy sector, but regardless of where the money ends up (the caymans) i'd say the gesture still represents a fairly significant shift in the german political position towards its armed forces and its military role within europe.. but let's see how sustained all these responses are, only time will tell I think the significance of the meeting of the German parliament on Sunday is not properly appreciated internationally. The amount of money is a big shift, but there were many more seismic shifts happening that I haven't seen reported yet. The shift of framing of renewables into a context of national security being one of them. That used to be a Green position, not one shared by the loving liberals. Word of the day: Zäsur
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