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Dapper_Swindler posted:my guess is no peace yet. Peace without any Russian goals achieved would be equal to Putin stepping down.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:32
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TheRat posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498270787081547777 -non-graphic video of buildings being hit in Kharkiv. Looks loving brutal. There's no way of using Grads in the middle of a populated city that doesn't construe a war crime. Like who knows, theoretically maybe there is a legitimate military target somewhere there in the middle, but rocket artillery is not a precision weapon that you would need to minimize civilian casualties.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:32
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Alchenar posted:Yeah I think he goes a bit hyperbolic on the economic points but even if he wasn't my response would be 'that's the cost worth paying'. my guess is they "win" with them either taking something in the south and declaring victory and loving off OR they go full assad out of desperation while the rubel implodes more. i dont think sanctions are going away that fast either because other power sources exist and will be invested in plus other stuff.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:34
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Vando posted:It's just another guy on twitter doing a Solid Reckon and is about as valuable in isolation as any other thing you read on there, i.e. not very. Like so many thousands of people over the past 4 days: Using war as entertainment and getting very well acquainted with their own farts. Bonus if they can do it on a form of social media where people can validate them with likes of some kind.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:34
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Curious at the response to indiscriminate rocket strikes in populated cities from the people who were falling over to praise Putin for his heroic efforts to avoid civilian deaths while purging Ukraine of Nazis
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Feb 28, 2022 15:36
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Upgrade posted:Curious at the response to indiscriminate rocket strikes in pupated cities from the people who were falling over to praise Putin for his heroic efforts to avoid civilian deaths while purging Ukraine of Nazis "something something Dresden".
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Feb 28, 2022 15:36
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:He makes a lot of good points. There are a few *potential* holes in his reasoning. I also agree with most of what this chap says, here are some counterpoints / critiques though: 1. Russia are highly tolerant of killing civilians but may be less so here with the world watching more closely. 2. I think he's overstating the financial impact on Europe a bit. Europe gets 10% of its energy from Russia. (25% gas, 40% of which from Russia). It's heading into spring now so for the next 9 months the heavy household heating usage will go down. In the meantime the sanctions will have a significant impact on Russia as they continue. Financially this will be a lot more painful for Russia than for Europe. Combine these two and the cost of pursuing the war from Putins side gets very expensive the longer it goes on.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:37
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Alchenar posted:This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right: Yes, I think people have gotten a bit high on the anecdotes from Twitter. Ukraine has always been almost certain to lose the conventional war; the bigger questions have been whether they can deal with a NATO-supplied insurgency and the hits they're taking to their economy.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:38
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498295422036680715 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498302455527915522?s=20&t=SGW8Zxvq33-KBF23wKVX4Q I'm guessing talks didn't really get anywhere.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:39
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Feb 28, 2022 15:39
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heel turn posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498302455527915522?s=20&t=SGW8Zxvq33-KBF23wKVX4Q Haven't they already recommended this, at least partly because a lot of nations won't allow Russian airlines to fly into them?
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Feb 28, 2022 15:40
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Upgrade posted:Curious at the response to indiscriminate rocket strikes in populated cities from the people who were falling over to praise Putin for his heroic efforts to avoid civilian deaths while purging Ukraine of Nazis They are just going to call it a false flag
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Feb 28, 2022 15:42
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I don't think anyone's tried to seriously suggest that Ukraine's military can unequivocally defeat Russia's military and repel them back over the borders, but I still don't see how Russia sees itself "winning" this war in any definitive sense either. To take territory of the Ukrainian military is one thing, but how do you hold it? For potentially months, or even years until the new puppet government finds its feet? I think one big question is whether Zelenskyy and the military leaders keep fighting to the very end, and make Russia bleed for every inch of Kyiv it takes, or whether they will give up relatively early to save the city being reduced to rubble and to spare the lives of thousands? And what if resistance groups keep fighting even once the Ukrainian army has laid down its weapons? It's easy to say "it's only been four days", but I genuinely don't think Russia expected the kind of resistance they've been facing, and were genuinely hoping to have chased the Ukrainian government into exile by now. I don't think a conventional war, however lopsided, was what they wanted at all and they are losing legitimacy at home with every day this gets prolonged. You can sell a "special operation" to relieve the Ukrainians of their drug-addled, neo-Nazi leadership, but you can't so easily sell a war which (irrespective of how much information the average Russian is receiving) is a long, costly and bloody assault on cities full of men, women and children who are fighting grimly for their very existence. This was all a horrendous miscalculation and I don't think it's too extreme to suggest that they are, to that extent, losing in Ukraine right now.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:42
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uncleTomOfFinland posted:Finnish support for NATO membership has exceeded 50% according to a fresh poll. This is the first time in history we are seeing numbers anything like this. NATO expansionism will not be tolerated! No, but for real, I won't be surprised if some rush to explain why this is somehow "the west's" fault.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:43
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Mr Scumbag posted:Like so many thousands of people over the past 4 days: Using war as entertainment and getting very well acquainted with their own farts. He's a military blogger so it's not quite that level of uninformed speculation, but it still is speculation at the end of the day. What we'll end up seeing down the line is probably some of the things this guy says come true, some don't, some things other people say that are the complete opposite happen instead. It's impossible to tell, and almost every single published commentary will seem compelling on some level. People want certainty and the only certainty is that nothing about this is solidifying into anything certain yet.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:43
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Alchenar posted:This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right: when it's this kind of situation, i just perceive this kind of cocky certainty as another form of stupidity
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Feb 28, 2022 15:44
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Blurred posted:I don't think anyone's tried to seriously suggest that Ukraine's military can unequivocally defeat Russia's military and repel them back over the borders, but I still don't see how Russia sees itself "winning" this war in any definitive sense either. To take territory of the Ukrainian military is one thing, but how do you hold it? For potentially months, or even years until the new puppet government finds its feet? I think one big question is whether Zelenskyy and the military leaders keep fighting to the very end, and make Russia bleed for every inch of Kyiv it takes, or whether they will give up relatively early to save the city being reduced to rubble and to spare the lives of thousands? And what if resistance groups keep fighting even once the Ukrainian army has laid down its weapons? It's also easy to "advance" if you assume the rear areas are getting held. But every time they run into a city they can't take, it swallows up thousands of troops. The southern thrust will have a hard time sustaining itself without taking Odessa or Mariupol, supply routes through the Crimea are extremely long and the further they go, the worse the supply issue and vehicle maintenance becomes.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:44
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498302999336210441 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498304904573722628 a retreat to where, drat it
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Feb 28, 2022 15:44
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Failed Imagineer posted:He's probably insanely correct about hyperinflation in Europe and elsewhere coming soon- Don't hate myself enough to read a Twitter "thread"; what did he give as reasoning for that?
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Feb 28, 2022 15:45
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Honestly that one Russian guy's article about how this was goign to turn out and the capabilities of the Russian military that was published a couple of weeks before the invasion has been the most compelling thing I've read on this. I'm putting drawing dicks on a map and repeating "armored columns" and "deep battle" pretty low in the overall ranking.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:47
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GTO posted:I also agree with most of what this chap says, here are some counterpoints / critiques though: agreed. i am also mixed on the "ukraine will give in" like yeah they probably will but all the russian war crimes poo poo will do is stiffin resolve and have Ukrainians get even more weapons. i also think russia is probably doing way way worse then he acts.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:47
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Blurred posted:I don't think anyone's tried to seriously suggest that Ukraine's military can unequivocally defeat Russia's military and repel them back over the borders, but I still don't see how Russia sees itself "winning" this war in any definitive sense either. To take territory of the Ukrainian military is one thing, but how do you hold it? For potentially months, or even years until the new puppet government finds its feet? I think one big question is whether Zelenskyy and the military leaders keep fighting to the very end, and make Russia bleed for every inch of Kyiv it takes, or whether they will give up relatively early to save the city being reduced to rubble and to spare the lives of thousands? And what if resistance groups keep fighting even once the Ukrainian army has laid down its weapons? At best Putin is going to get a Pyrrhic victory... it all sort of goes down hill after that.  ps i do love the new smilie
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Feb 28, 2022 15:48
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Upgrade posted:Curious at the response to indiscriminate rocket strikes in populated cities from the people who were falling over to praise Putin for his heroic efforts to avoid civilian deaths while purging Ukraine of Nazis Betting on "look at how far Zelensky pushed his luck", with a side of "Russia may have pulled the trigger, but it's all NATOs fault when you think about it".
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Feb 28, 2022 15:48
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heel turn posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498302455527915522?s=20&t=SGW8Zxvq33-KBF23wKVX4Q I have to imagine that if you were a US citizen currently in Russia, you have no intention of leaving any time soon.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:49
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heel turn posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498302455527915522?s=20&t=SGW8Zxvq33-KBF23wKVX4Q Probably, but also there aren't any flights to US and there's an economic crisis
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Feb 28, 2022 15:49
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BigglesSWE posted:Haven't they already recommended this, at least partly because a lot of nations won't allow Russian airlines to fly into them? Similar to France's announcement yesterday, which was reported as "France asks all citizens to leave Russia", whereas the directive was aimed specifically at people visiting Russia for short stays and was due to the logistical challenges of arranging travel amongst sanctions.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:49
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slowdave posted:Probably, but also there aren't any flights to US and there's an economic crisis Time to repeat the Bering Migration!
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Feb 28, 2022 15:51
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3D Megadoodoo posted:Don't hate myself enough to read a Twitter "thread"; what did he give as reasoning for that? A mix of 'gas prices skyrocketing' and 'the West has already set itself up for significant inflation from the last decade of monetary policy plus two years of COVID related massive debt expansion'. He's hyperbolic in expression, but it's not an unreasonable or unconventional take that this is not going to be one of those times where the West imposes sanctions on somewhere and you only know because you read it in the news. This kind of economic confrontation is going to be felt.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:51
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slowdave posted:Probably, but also there aren't any flights to US and there's an economic crisis you fly to any of the countries that haven't shut off flights. americans can still get out and get back home, but it's getting more difficult and things are rapidly getting to the point you might be arrested as a that said yeah if you are an american in russia right now you're either criminally stupid or have a really good reason to stay and i think you probably got the message a day or two ago you should probably leave anyway
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Feb 28, 2022 15:51
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3D Megadoodoo posted:Don't hate myself enough to read a Twitter "thread"; what did he give as reasoning for that? A bunch of stuff that isn't causal to inflation. His economic analysis is pretty off base and should be more or less discarded except for the broad strokes (higher energy prices, Russian economy dead in the water).
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Feb 28, 2022 15:51
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ronya posted:a retreat to where, drat it Kyiv I'd image. Only big concern I have is most of the forces being trapped in the Donbass area
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Feb 28, 2022 15:51
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3D Megadoodoo posted:Don't hate myself enough to read a Twitter "thread"; what did he give as reasoning for that? Love random fuckin guys on twitter with the confidence of a mainstream pundit 👍
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Feb 28, 2022 15:52
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slowdave posted:Probably, but also there aren't any flights to US and there's an economic crisis I haven't seen any announcements of closure of train service to Finland, so that's a relatively easy possibility.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:53
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This means very little if you're currently being cluster bombed in Kharkiv, but Denmark is seriously considering renaming the street where the Russian embassy resides to "Ukraine Street". Also, I'm daydreaming up ways of how to best immobilize deserted Russian armor with basic hand tools.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:54
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slowdave posted:Love random fuckin guys on twitter with the confidence of a mainstream pundit 👍 Let alone pundits with the confidence of a mainstream pundit. 
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Feb 28, 2022 15:54
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TheRat posted:Come on, dude. Just look up the publicly available numbers for active APCs in the RA—I believe you can find it on Wikipedia. RA has roughly 4300 active APCs and 7k in reserve; and the UA is claiming, which was repeated by TASS—briefly—close to 1k APC vehicle kills. Then do the math yourself. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 15:54
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bolind posted:Also, I'm daydreaming up ways of how to best immobilize deserted Russian armor with basic hand tools. cover all the controls in a thick layer of cheeto dust
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Feb 28, 2022 15:55
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Alchenar posted:A mix of 'gas prices skyrocketing' and 'the West has already set itself up for significant inflation from the last decade of monetary policy plus two years of COVID related massive debt expansion'. Warmachine posted:A bunch of stuff that isn't causal to inflation. His economic analysis is pretty off base and should be more or less discarded except for the broad strokes (higher energy prices, Russian economy dead in the water). OK thanks. I think if there was even a hint of hyperinflation, I'd've heard about it from not Twitter already. Higher energy prices was a given the moment this thing started.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:55
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Pook Good Mook posted:It's also easy to "advance" if you assume the rear areas are getting held. But every time they run into a city they can't take, it swallows up thousands of troops. The southern thrust will have a hard time sustaining itself without taking Odessa or Mariupol, supply routes through the Crimea are extremely long and the further they go, the worse the supply issue and vehicle maintenance becomes.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:56
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Upgrade posted:Curious at the response to indiscriminate rocket strikes in populated cities from the people who were falling over to praise Putin for his heroic efforts to avoid civilian deaths while purging Ukraine of Nazis I would imagine something like: "is there any confirmation they're happening?!?!"
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Feb 28, 2022 15:57
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