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SaTaMaS posted:What are cap-and-trade fantasies? The Neolib version of bringing freedom to EE in the 90s through capital investment and free trade. Democracy sold separately batteries not included. It's the idea that markets define society rather than being an outgrowth of it, and so installing top level economic neoliberal capitalism would transform EE into the western Europe in the 50s and cure all those problems. Instead it made authoritarian oligarchy because government institutions were very weak. As to the rest of it there's been an eternal line of Russia whisperers who until December we're always wrong.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:38
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Ukrainian Ambassador to UN speaking now at general assembly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2MoQnBYCqU Wow, he is really going for it here, explicitly comparing Russia to the Third Reich. He used a line something like, "if the leader of Russia wants to kill himself, he doesn't need to use nuclear weapons. He can follow the example of the guy in Berlin, May 1945". EDIT: Now questioning the legitimacy of the ascension of Russia as successor to the Soviet Union to the UNSC. Blurred fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 16:38
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Alchenar posted:This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right: Sorry to bring this guy up again but I thought it was essentially open knowledge and widely accepted now that the purpose of this invasion is nothing to do with securing borders against NATO or buffer zones, but it's essentially purely imperialistic? That Putin thinks the tsarist empire is the goal they should be shooting for and that Ukraine is Russia and has no business being its own country. Its quite an important assumption because you can't predict how the Russians are going to proceed / how the war will go without this and a lot of his predictions go against a Russian goal of acquiring the entirity of Ukraine. The territorial acquisitions he states would be a strategic loss for Russia especially now that the rest of Ukraine will be pushed further away from them. Its also hard to say how the war is going for Russia without thinking of their goals, if the aim really is to absorb Ukraine the war is going horribly and probably self defeating long term. If they just wanted a land corridor or a buffer zone then they may be doing fine despite underperforming. I have no qualifications either though so I may be talking out of my rear end. Also I'll take his economic predictions with a grain of salt given he is a brexiteer who thinks brexit has been a smashing economic success.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:40
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Alchenar posted:Okay here's a thing that give a little bit of hope: it makes absolutely no sense for Ukraine to be targetting Buks unless they have some aspiration for exploiting the resulting degredation in anti-air capabilities. Could also be that they are just super expensive bits of hardware. I can't find costs online but am confident they are orders of magnitude more expensive than any other set of vehicles in the Russian battle groups. I'm sure there's a good reason but I don't get why the drones are able to get so close. Are they too small to be visible to the radars on these sorts of anti air systems?
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Feb 28, 2022 16:42
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fatherboxx posted:Long insurgency (which is guaranteed with massive arms shipments through Polish border) on top of economy in freefall is a nightmare scenario so I dont think map painting would make anyone in Russian command happy. That's what kind of got me about the tweet saying that non-mechanized units with man portable AT systems are only good for sitting there and getting wiped out. Perhaps in a straight up battle but in an overall conflict the prospect of thousands of easily concealable weapons that lets anyone within half a kilometer (or two kilometers for the javelin) turn one of your vehicles (front line or support, AT rockets work fantastically against fuel carriers) into scrap if your soldiers drop their guard for less than four seconds is terrifying. You cannot secure against it.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:42
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An argument: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1498189698858205184 by the author of this earlier thread: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527
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Feb 28, 2022 16:43
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Shifty Pony posted:That's what kind of got me about the tweet saying that non-mechanized units with man portable AT systems are only good for sitting there and getting wiped out. Perhaps in a straight up battle but in an overall conflict the prospect of thousands of easily concealable weapons that lets anyone within half a kilometer (or two kilometers for the javelin) turn one of your vehicles (front line or support, AT rockets work fantastically against fuel carriers) into scrap if your soldiers drop their guard for less than four seconds is terrifying. You cannot secure against it. They've been having a hard time utilizing them because of the insane mud in many areas. That makes them easy targets or abandoned.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:43
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Ukrainian UN ambassador bringing up the legitimacy of the Russian Federation to the entire general assembly and if they were voted in in 1991 lol
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Feb 28, 2022 16:45
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SaTaMaS posted:What are cap-and-trade fantasies? Google translates it to: "And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again." No idea if that's more correct than cap-and-trade though.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:46
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Blurred posted:Wow, he is really going for it here, explicitly comparing Russia to the Third Reich. And now we're getting the "Russia isn't actually a valid member of the UN and shouldn't be considered the continuation state for their UNSC seat" Interested to see how the Russian delegation responds
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Feb 28, 2022 16:46
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498323686495039489?s=20&t=bpnmVhkBPNnkN-tQ8TQ6iw https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498324120425189388?s=20&t=bpnmVhkBPNnkN-tQ8TQ6iw "Putin must continue to refuse a ceasefire. Here's why:" energy
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Feb 28, 2022 16:48
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JerikTelorian posted:And now we're getting the "Russia isn't actually a valid member of the UN and shouldn't be considered the continuation state for their UNSC seat" He's raised that point in a couple of the UNSC meetings last week, too. I think the RU ambassador has generally just ignored it.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:48
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The acoup blog guy is also tweeting https://twitter.com/BretDevereaux/status/1498177599553605632 Framboise posted:I really hate that loving Marco Rubio is one of the more accurate sources of information right now.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:48
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distortion park posted:Could also be that they are just super expensive bits of hardware. I can't find costs online but am confident they are orders of magnitude more expensive than any other set of vehicles in the Russian battle groups. Drones were able to get past Oerlikon GDF Skyguard and Patriot missile systems to attack the Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:48
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distortion park posted:I'm sure there's a good reason but I don't get why the drones are able to get so close. Are they too small to be visible to the radars on these sorts of anti air systems? Also would be interesting to know how many of those kinds of drones Ukr has. The news is reporting that there's a 3km long line of armour almost at Kyiv. No word yet on whether there have been major attempts to stop the advance with air power but I suppose we assume they would be doing that.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:48
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Holy gently caress, listening to the Ukrainian UN ambassador read the text message taken off the phone of a Russian soldier who was KIA was moving. This poo poo is a disaster just as much for those Russian soldiers as it is for the Ukrainians. There are a lot, and there are going to be even more, grieving people in Russia right now.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:49
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Imagine trying to negotiate with nekulturny Ukrainians. Impossible! https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1498276394849218561?cxt=HHwWgsC5payc-copAAAA 
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Feb 28, 2022 16:49
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Ukrainian UN ambassador bringing up the legitimacy of the Russian Federation to the entire general assembly and if they were voted in in 1991 lol yeah they were laying the groundwork for this last week/over the weekend nobody ever officially approved russia as the heir to the ussr seat, everyone just assumed it was that said its funny but the point of the security council vetos is basically "does this country have the actual power to tell the rest of the security council to go gently caress itself, so we shouldn't pass resolutions that cannot be enforced" not "is this a good and deserving country" and russia's nuclear arsenal says it does have the ability to ignore the rest of the council (as the inability of nato to directly intervene shows), so realistically it should keep the seat
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Feb 28, 2022 16:50
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JerikTelorian posted:And now we're getting the "Russia isn't actually a valid member of the UN and shouldn't be considered the continuation state for their UNSC seat" This is a pretty silly argument (what is Ukraine's position on the French 5th Republic as successor state to the French 4th Republic?), but it's sure to annoy Russian diplomats.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:50
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El Grillo posted:Yeah I'm pretty interested in this too. At least 18 according to Wikipedia. Wonder if Turkey have shipped them some more. Idk if this is an accurate representation but pretty lol at the crying about the economics https://twitter.com/VeraMBergen/status/1498322250189217796?t=qaqOSqyl0bQ9-u8CElY1Eg&s=19
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Feb 28, 2022 16:51
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:He's raised that point in a couple of the UNSC meetings last week, too. I think the RU ambassador has generally just ignored it. yeah it has real One Weird Trick energy, when I last checked most of the Professional Diplomat Types online are like "you know, it's an interesting argument and international law is really complicated, but..."
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Feb 28, 2022 16:51
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William Bear posted:This is a pretty silly argument (what is Ukraine's position on the French 5th Republic as successor state to the French 4th Republic?), but it's sure to annoy Russian diplomats. I assumed they weren't making this argument in seriousness, basically to piss off Russians who are claiming rights to Ukraine based on the empire of the loving Romanovs.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:53
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Ynglaur posted:Oh, thanks! This one really hits it on the head. Horses are better at moving through mud than tanks and trucks. The Polish cavalry shall have its revenge!
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Feb 28, 2022 16:53
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eke out posted:yeah it has real One Weird Trick energy, when I last checked most of the Professional Diplomat Types online are like "you know, it's an interesting argument and international law is really complicated, but..." It's catnip to poli sci/ international affairs people like me.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:53
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the popes toes posted:Imagine trying to negotiate with nekulturny Ukrainians. Impossible! Cookie-cutter clean-shaven business men in suits (with matching ties!) being an ideal representation of "culture" and "tradition of statehood" is some Aramis fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 16:53
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eke out posted:yeah it has real One Weird Trick energy, when I last checked most of the Professional Diplomat Types online are like "you know, it's an interesting argument and international law is really complicated, but..." Yeah I can't imagine that it matters much; 30 years of tacitly accepting it is I think support enough. Still, it has to rankle people. The Russian Ambassador is flying. This translator is doin work trying to keep up.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:54
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ronya posted:An argument: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1498294142841020421 he is a good follow. Ynglaur posted:Oh, thanks! This one really hits it on the head. yeah. like shits nuts.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:54
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498323686495039489?s=20&t=bpnmVhkBPNnkN-tQ8TQ6iw If Ukraine demilitarizes, what's to stop Big Daddy Vladdy from coming in three or four years down the road, once it's complete, and saying, "Yeah, this is ours now. No more Ukraine, is Mother Russia once more." EDIT: Real poo poo, I think the only reason Putin is being such a hardass on this "security" bullshit is so that he can accuse Ukraine of being unreasonable and point to the refusal to "denazify" (  ) as evidence of Nazis in the Ukrainian government. Then he can continue this farce and say he just wants to denazify Ukraine himself.I can't wrap my brain around his thought processes. I'm trying. I just fuckin' can't. D34THROW fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 16:54
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https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1498303748392771588?s=20&t=ekf468M42fxmPYguakV6PA
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Feb 28, 2022 16:55
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498323686495039489?s=20&t=bpnmVhkBPNnkN-tQ8TQ6iw "We'll stop shooting Ukrainians if NATO forces Ukraine to give us everything we want instead" sure thing big Vlad
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Feb 28, 2022 16:55
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498323686495039489?s=20&t=bpnmVhkBPNnkN-tQ8TQ6iw
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Feb 28, 2022 16:55
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the popes toes posted:Imagine trying to negotiate with nekulturny Ukrainians. Impossible! Guys on the right came right from the war, guys on the left came from their comfy chairs from which they're sending others to the war
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Feb 28, 2022 16:56
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William Bear posted:This is a pretty silly argument (what is Ukraine's position on the French 5th Republic as successor state to the French 4th Republic?), but it's sure to annoy Russian diplomats. not really. the seat is, officially, the USSR's seat. the USSR didn't transition into russia: the union collapsed, and the soviet socialist republics all became independent. russia just took the seat because it was always the real power in the ussr and is the country that kept all the nukes, but there is a big difference there than recognizing or disputing the continuity of government of the same country - the seat belongs to the country, not the government, and the ussr no longer exists. not just legally, but in reality: the borders are dramatically different (which is what putin is so upset about). but again at the end of the day the security council vetos are pragmatic, not moral (despite the pretense it was a reward for the victors of WWII), and pragmatically russia is indeed the heir of the part of the USSR that really matters for security council veto membership: ability to end the world if invaded.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:56
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JerikTelorian posted:And now we're getting the "Russia isn't actually a valid member of the UN and shouldn't be considered the continuation state for their UNSC seat" It’s a terrible legal case, but it’s a clever threat trying keep Russia from doing things (e.g. tac nukes) that show it’s completely removed itself from international consensus on what is or isn’t appropriate in war. International law is basically Calvinball, but removing Russia from the Security Council is only really possible if it goes so far off the rails that even China wants them out. I think this is just a threat to try & keep them in line with int’l norms on war.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:56
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Okay to make up for my last link of Random Twitter Dude, here is War on the Rocks with Michael Kofman: https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/interpreting-the-first-few-days-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/
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Feb 28, 2022 16:57
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498323686495039489?s=20&t=bpnmVhkBPNnkN-tQ8TQ6iw loving lol, only Crimea, not even LDNR. the popes toes posted:Imagine trying to negotiate with nekulturny Ukrainians. Impossible! Surely Ukraine is more cultured because it did not send a disgraced culture warrior and a sex pest to broker a ceasefire
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Feb 28, 2022 16:57
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D34THROW posted:If Ukraine demilitarizes, what's to stop Big Daddy Vladdy from coming in three or four years down the road, once it's complete, and saying, "Yeah, this is ours now. No more Ukraine, is Mother Russia once more." nothing. that's the real sticking point in any attempt to negotiate peace: russia's word is worthless, and what they are asking for would compromise the ability to force them to keep their word.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:58
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Proper Russians should have beards anyway. Curse that europhile Peter-not-so-Great.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:58
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JerikTelorian posted:Yeah I can't imagine that it matters much; 30 years of tacitly accepting it is I think support enough. Still, it has to rankle people. The UN tacitly accepted Taiwan in the Chinese seat for 22 years until they didn't anymore
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Feb 28, 2022 16:58
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Pook Good Mook posted:I assumed they weren't making this argument in seriousness, basically to piss off Russians who are claiming rights to Ukraine based on the empire of the loving Romanovs. I want to know whose fault this situation is. Did Lenin start it, or is this Peter the Great's doing?
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Feb 28, 2022 16:58
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