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Omon Ra posted:Russia has no business whatsoever dictating whether Ukraine can join NATO or the EU. They can have Crimea if its residents agree to that in an actual referendum. Whether or not we think they have any business doing it doesn't change the fact that that's what they're going to do when they in all likelyhood win this war.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:46
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3D Megadoodoo posted:Well there's this thing called Union State of Russia and Belarus. I tell you this continued encroachment by Russia into Western Europe is giving me a real bad case of
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Feb 28, 2022 17:46
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Omon Ra posted:Russia has no business whatsoever dictating whether Ukraine can join NATO or the EU. They can have Crimea if its residents agree to that in an actual referendum. France and Germany will keep vetoing Ukraine's accession until it gives up. It would probably be best to make it official that Ukraine isn't going to join NATO.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:46
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spacetoaster posted:What are the chances this happens? Highly unlikely, gaining EU member status is a long and arduous process.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:46
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Dapper_Swindler posted:this, its just china and china will take them for all they have. russia isnt gonna get let back into the big western boys club again. Russia has the saving grace that the current boondoggle rests squarely on Putin's shoulders. There are plenty of post-Putin-Russia scenarios that could lead to Russian re-integration, and Putin is not getting any younger.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:46
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the holy poopacy posted:Sure, but my point is how long can those sanctions stay up while Europe is dependent on Russian oil? Europe will eventually need to relax sanctions to buy time to transition away from Russian resources. One of the things to remember is that Putin already shut down a lot of the Russian fossil fuel exports into Europe (basically shuttering everything that wasn't a long-term contract, and reducing daily pipeline exports by almost half), that's largely what sparked the winter energy crisis in the first place. Their contribution to overall European energy sources plunged from 30% to 15%. The EU weathered that and can certainly adapt in order to maintain those sanctions. It would be disruptive - particularly to Germany - but they are already turning over a new leaf and considering re-embracing green nuclear power, in addition to simply building more LNG ports and reactivating their coal plants. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-02/europe-faces-harsh-reality-of-finding-russian-gas-irreplaceable
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Feb 28, 2022 17:46
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Finance nerds. How does one divest holdings of Russian gov and corporate debt? Looking for buyers. Asking for a friend.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:47
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Ciprian Maricon posted:this is not a good outcome, Russia can and should be able to re-join the world at large and normalize relations if possible. Nations should not be punished in perpetuity, we let Germany back into the world stage after the holocaust, I think there is a possible future were Russia can be a good member of the international community. sure, it just probably is not going to be under the current regime
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Feb 28, 2022 17:47
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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498335441170411525
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Feb 28, 2022 17:47
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Omon Ra posted:Russia has no business whatsoever dictating whether Ukraine can join NATO or the EU. They can have Crimea if its residents agree to that in an actual referendum. It is completely implausible that such a referendum could be conducted fairly any time soon, and especially after Russia's first action after invading it the first time was to conduct a fake referendum where 200% of the population turned out and voted 184% in favour of joining Russia, and then promptly drove out all of the resident Ukrainians.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:47
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TheRat posted:I'm not sure where you're from, but as someone living in western europe I don't think you realise how little western europeans thinks of eastern europe. The anti-eastern racism is real bad. Sure, but not as bad as against middle-Eastern people. These things usually have a hierarchy.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:47
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the holy poopacy posted:The entire developing world? They'd definitely become more dependent on China, further accelerating China's emergence as the world's sole superpower, but they wouldn't be a Chinese client state any more than the U.S. already is. Junior ally is possible, something like the UK to the US (which colloquially gets described as a client state relationship from time to time). On a PPP basis the economies are about the same distance apart (26: 4.3 trillion for CN/Ru versus 23:3.1 trn for US/UK).
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Feb 28, 2022 17:47
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Zhanism posted:If this is true then that really is nuts. One of the things people say that Russia did after the fiasco with 1st Gerogia war was to upgrade things like comms gear. I remember reading articles of "analysts" salivating all the gear that the Russian troops were parading around. Ohhhh they all got encrypted comms. Putin fired the reformer in 2012 and promoted a lick spittle. They've been hollowing out the military for a decade now.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:48
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Ciprian Maricon posted:this is not a good outcome, Russia can and should be able to re-join the world at large and normalize relations if possible. Nations should not be punished in perpetuity, we let Germany back into the world stage after the holocaust, I think there is a possible future were Russia can be a good member of the international community. oh we will and i absolutly agree. i love Russia the country, i want to visit some day. once putin is removed or dead(natural or other wise, dudes getting old and possibly sick). its insanely clear that putins gonna keep doing this poo poo no matter what happens in ukraine. he is the cancer, cut him out and put some other rear end in a top hat in there and poo poo will be normalized. TheRat posted:I'm not sure where you're from, but as someone living in western europe I don't think you realise how little western europeans thinks of eastern europe. The anti-eastern racism is real bad. i am sure it is and if zelensky had poo poo himself and ran, we wouldnt be having this conversation but they havent so far and he managed to make Germany 180 hard on its last couple decades.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:48
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spacetoaster posted:What are the chances this happens? Assuming Ukraine survives this as an independent state: In the next 5 years? None. Joining the EU is a very long and tedious process of political and economic reforms. You have to reach certain political, fiscal and economic criteria and Ukraine is very, very far away from these.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:48
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the problem is that those pesky reformers are always so critical and need to have things changed
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Feb 28, 2022 17:49
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https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1498332884121399307 These things look like they were made in the 60s.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:50
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Ukraine agrees to denazify the country by electing a Jewish president
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Feb 28, 2022 17:50
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spacetoaster posted:What are the chances this happens? Complete fantasy and certainly not while there's a war. I consider VdL's statements pretty unreasonable as well. Yes, there is lots of goodwill for Ukraine getting on the path to membership, but it's not going to be fast and it presumes Ukraine wins the war. Which I'd consider impossible. That said, rules have a habit of becoming very malleable during crises even within EU states, so who knows what may happen.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:50
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Just in: Finland is sending 70 000 food packets to Ukraine. I guess we're on Putin's side after all 
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Feb 28, 2022 17:51
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small butter posted:Is it accurate to say that this war is no longer just Russia vs Ukraine but Russia, Belarus, and Chechnya vs Ukraine? If so, what would stop EU countries (or even America) from engaging directly with non-Russian forces? Belarus and Chechnya are not nuclear states as far as I know. I believe the big, loud, possibly insane nuclear ally of Belarus and Chechnya - who is currently the largest ‘bad guy’ army engaged in the conflict - would give EU states pause re: direct conflict. 
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Feb 28, 2022 17:51
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Beefeater1980 posted:Junior ally is possible, something like the UK to the US (which colloquially gets described as a client state relationship from time to time). On a PPP basis the economies are about the same distance apart (26: 4.3 trillion for CN/Ru versus 23:3.1 trn for US/UK). That's right now, not after the Russian economy starts free-falling.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:51
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Preoptopus posted:So what they are going to fast track EU membership for Ukraine and then we head to a major war in europe? Welcome a huge, poor, and dysfunctional country into the EU? At high speed? And one currently at war with Russia? Approximately a negative one billion percent chance.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:51
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Bosnia and Herzegovina for example applied for EU membership in 2016 and is still far from ready to join. Plus they also have internal issues with violent ethnic tensions.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:51
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SlurredSpeech609 posted:Putin fired the reformer in 2012 and promoted a lick spittle. They've been hollowing out the military for a decade now. Yeah, proper equipment is stuff that could have been funneled into an oligarch's pockets. They're not going to let that revenue stream disappear into procurement.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:52
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Majorian posted:Truss' finest moment will always be right before this war, when Lavrov asked her if the UK recognized Russia's sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh. She said "We will never recognize it!" Which was odd, because those two regions have been part of Russia for centuries. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRhlRM6rYck https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2V3PrfN98U
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Feb 28, 2022 17:52
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3D Megadoodoo posted:Just in: Finland is sending 70 000 food packets to Ukraine. I guess we're on Putin's side after all Send them delicious salmiakki
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Feb 28, 2022 17:53
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Red posted:https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1498332884121399307 They were.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:54
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TheRat posted:Send them delicious salmiakki I doubt that would be included, as it increases blood pressure. Brunberg chocolate, probably.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:54
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spacetoaster posted:What are the chances this happens? I'm reasonably sure accession to the EU is a multi-year process, so everything depends on the war's outcome. Mainly this is a deliberate slap in the face to Putin.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:54
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3D Megadoodoo posted:Just in: Finland is sending 70 000 food packets to Ukraine. I guess we're on Putin's side after all russians are adopting siege tactics it seems, and there's issues sprouting up in Kyiv and Kharkiv already. Actually v helpful contribution just too late.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:54
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Ciprian Maricon posted:this is not a good outcome, Russia can and should be able to re-join the world at large and normalize relations if possible. Nations should not be punished in perpetuity, we let Germany back into the world stage after the holocaust, I think there is a possible future were Russia can be a good member of the international community. Well sure, that’s probably a fine idea and likely what the West would expect to happen. But Russia has to weather the dark ages between now and then. The longer Putin and/or his successor(s) (lol) keep waving dick westwards, the worse the Russian economy will get and the more vulnerable to strongarm actors like China. Not a good outcome, but it seems to be here for a while now.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:55
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The shelling in Kharkiv is horrible. A close friend of mine was born there and her maternal grandmother lives just outside the city. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1498270724506673156 I wonder legitimately how many foreigners are going to go and do this.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:55
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madmatt112 posted:I believe the big, loud, possibly insane nuclear ally of Belarus and Chechnya - who is currently the largest ‘bad guy’ army engaged in the conflict - would give EU states pause re: direct conflict. Treat them how you treat North Korea? If all you have is the threat of MAD then that's a pretty weak negotiating position.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:55
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TheRat posted:I'm not sure where you're from, but as someone living in western europe I don't think you realise how little western europeans thinks of eastern europe. The anti-eastern racism is real bad. I dunno, I'm in Ireland and the pro-Ukraine sentiment is very strong. We have a loud but small minority of xenophobes who hate nearly all immigrants, but most people here have friends, partners, colleagues, neighbours from all over Central and Eastern Europe. Yeah, I know, a formerly completely colonized state having big empathy for another state being attacked by an imperial power is hardly surprising, but its not just that on its own.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:56
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3D Megadoodoo posted:Just in: Finland is sending 70 000 food packets to Ukraine. I guess we're on Putin's side after all Soldiers gotta eat.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:57
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What's the significance of the single letters (Z? V? I forget which) painted on some of the RU vehicles I saw posted over the past few days? If it's super obvious like "this is just how RU id each other at a glance" then cool.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:57
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El Grillo posted:I see you haven't spent much time with dear old Liz. Please enjoy (CW: utterly deranged robo-human attempts to make political speeches): I've been aware of her for a couple years but yeah, those are gems too. I still like the Russia one the best, because imagine faceplanting in front of Lavrov of all people.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:57
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:russians are adopting siege tactics it seems, and there's issues sprouting up in Kyiv and Kharkiv already. Actually v helpful contribution just too late. I think it's for the soldiers. IDK, the article is in the kind of lovely timeline format that makes actually finding out what it says too loving hard. e: Whoever decided "on-line news articles should be more like a bunch of Tweets!" should be sent in one of the packets.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:57
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This is from Reuters, so it's legit. Is this just the result of sanctions making buying impossible? It appears not even China put in a bid. https://twitter.com/BLSchmitt/status/1498335712835510273?t=swAh-Rw0pR6p-KGnBqxC8Q&s=19
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Feb 28, 2022 17:58
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