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SlurredSpeech609 posted:Not to attack you, but have you reviewed any of you old positions in this thread? I just went back and looked at a few and you were arguing passionately that putin wasnt crazy enough to invade and that there wasn't a political will inside nato to make putin pay. Neither of those were bad assumptions (and I thought along the same lines) but they were both completely wrong. Things change and we have to change with them. Yes, I've admitted I was wrong a few times now. I take solace in the fact that I was at least correct in predicting that the international community would make an invasion extremely costly for Putin and the oligarch class, and that Ukraine would put up a strong fight against Russia. Do you have something to say about the argument I made in the post you quoted?
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Feb 28, 2022 20:02
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Putin in shackles at the Hague feels like a good end point for relenting sanctions.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:02
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SlurredSpeech609 posted:Not to attack you, but have you reviewed any of you old positions in this thread? I just went back and looked at a few and you were arguing passionately that putin wasnt crazy enough to invade and that there wasn't a political will inside nato to make putin pay. Neither of those were bad assumptions (and I thought along the same lines) but they were both completely wrong. Things change and we have to change with them. who gives a poo poo? It seems like all Russia could do is play for some kinda negotiated peace deal because this is one big rolling ball of human sadness at this point. I don't think anyone is gonna let it just roll on for years
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Feb 28, 2022 20:02
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What did I miss while I slept??
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Feb 28, 2022 20:02
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Telsa Cola posted:People have been asking a lot about drone stuff. Here you go. Please put an  into your post.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:03
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Celexi posted:What did I miss while I slept?? War crimes.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:03
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Celexi posted:What did I miss while I slept?? Russian economy did fold, due to weekend sanctions.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Russians retreating from Sumy on foot, after abandoning their vehicles These videos of Ukrainian civilians interacting with Russian troops are so surreal to me, like that one of the Ukrainian motorists passing the out-of-gas Russian tank.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:04
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Telsa Cola posted:ik edit: When this war is over there are going to be a lot of studies done on just how effective drone warfare can be for a smaller country holding off a larger one not countering them/ or using their own. Somebody fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 20:05
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Please put an Done
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Feb 28, 2022 20:05
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CuddleCryptid posted:Any one of us would probably do the same thing but it's so wild that there are all these cases of people running out with AT rockets and apparently assigning one of their fellows to record them like they were recording a skateboarding tape. How does that conversation go down? "Hey, Peter, I'm going to go blow that tank up, get your phone out" I mean that's all it takes. That's an old-rear end RPG-7 but that's more than enough to blow up any variety of Tank/IFV/APC out there - so either Russian troops disembark and get themselves shot up standing int he middle of a hostile town to protect this BMP, or somebody is just going to walk right up and plant a rocket into it because armored vehicles are effectively blind and it's really, really easy to hit one at those distances.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:05
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cinci zoo sniper posted:A major hubris source in 2008 Georgia war was unreliable comms technology, with commanders resorting to using their own phones or asking for journalist phones for battle comms. They explicitly noted that, and made reforms and tech investment to fix that, and now that has evaporated somewhere? Just look at the Sochi Olympics. They spent an absolutely massive amount of money on it and most of the town was still a half-finished dump with buildings that looked like they were designed by someone very drunk (twin toilets, doors to nowhere, wild dogs in rooms, etc...). Never mind that highway they built, which cost almost $10 billion USD for 50km of road. To call Russia a kleptocracy is probably putting it too mildly. The_Franz fucked around with this message at 20:08 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 20:05
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SlurredSpeech609 posted:Not to attack you, but have you reviewed any of you old positions in this thread? I just went back and looked at a few and you were arguing passionately that putin wasnt crazy enough to invade and that there wasn't a political will inside nato to make putin pay. Neither of those were bad assumptions (and I thought along the same lines) but they were both completely wrong. Things change and we have to change with them. I don’t understand what this post contributes to the thread. If you would like to call people’s positions out, that’s fine - but please bring specific arguments to the table, going forward, which I struggle to identify here.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:06
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ReidRansom posted:And with the rest they just went on Alibaba and bought a load of off-the-shelf Baofengs, it seems. Wonder if they have any of the tacticlol antennae
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Feb 28, 2022 20:07
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1498366362540032001 As always, caveat that a bunch of videos have been misattributed to this war, but jesus christ
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Feb 28, 2022 20:07
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surf rock posted:As always, caveat that a bunch of videos have been misattributed to this war, but jesus christ the russian vehicle has a huge Z on it, which is helpful in attribution
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Feb 28, 2022 20:08
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Feb 28, 2022 20:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Russian economy did fold, due to weekend sanctions. More accurately, the Russian government said "economy stops now" to avoid number go down. Which is probably the dumbest idea ever but what can you do.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:09
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surf rock posted:https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1498366362540032001 a great example of needing to be careful with molotov's as well, seeing as how the clip ends with the woman's arm on fire.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:10
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The_Franz posted:Just look at the Sochi Olympics. They spent an absolutely massive amount of money on it and most of the town was still a half-finished dump with buildings that looked like they were designed by someone very drunk (twin toilets, doors to nowhere, wild dogs in rooms, etc...). Never mind that highway they built, which cost almost $10 billion USD for 50km of road. Oh, Sochi I know - the highway, the dog shooting, the subsequent ghost town, etcetera. I was just under impression that military reforms were actually conducted in good enough faith, despite Shoygu being a palace intrigant first and foremost.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:10
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Celexi posted:What did I miss while I slept?? war crimes russian economy exploded vigorous debate around jason bateman's merits as an actor are russian sanctions going too far? negotiations didn't work but going for round 2
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Feb 28, 2022 20:11
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surf rock posted:As always, caveat that a bunch of videos have been misattributed to this war, but jesus christ As mentioned you can see the z but uhhh her arm is probably not going to be in great shape after that.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:11
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surf rock posted:https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1498366362540032001 lol that tank is being pulled by a tractor
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Feb 28, 2022 20:11
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TulliusCicero posted:When this war is over there are going to be a lot of studies done on just how effective drone warfare can be for a smaller country holding off a larger one not countering them/ or using their own. I don't get why those drones are flying around Russian assets. You'd think they would be sitting ducks for just about any sort of AA, does the Ukrainian military have something in their arsenal that that makes running radar a risky prospect?
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Feb 28, 2022 20:11
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Head Bee Guy posted:lol that tank is being pulled by a tractor amazing how one video can so concisely sum up the russian invasion
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Feb 28, 2022 20:12
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Just woke up havent watched it yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzBxFH_hEwA
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Feb 28, 2022 20:13
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Shifty Pony posted:I don't get why those drones are flying around Russian assets. You'd think they would be sitting ducks for just about any sort of AA, does the Ukrainian military have something in their arsenal that that makes running radar a risky prospect? These drones are small and made mostly of fiberglass and other composites. Difficult to detect.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:13
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I know we shouldn't take the Ukrainian numbers at face value but let's assume the 5K number is halved to 2.5k soldiers killed, isn't losing 2.5% of your operational force before you have even conquered a major city a major loss in terms of man power?
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Feb 28, 2022 20:14
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Shifty Pony posted:I don't get why those drones are flying around Russian assets. You'd think they would be sitting ducks for just about any sort of AA, does the Ukrainian military have something in their arsenal that that makes running radar a risky prospect? The short story is that the Russian invasion has been very disorganized and embarrassing, and western countries have been supplying weaponry to Ukraine, both secretly and now openly.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:14
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Often Abbreviated posted:There's no avoiding destabilisation now, there's a war going on. Millions of refugees are on the move. Even from a (to simplify a bit) "Europeans are all racist bureaucrats" perspective, slow-walking a Ukrainian membership doesn't help. The EU needs the war to end, in Ukraine's favour, and massive reinvestment and reconstruction to begin or the existing destabilisation is going to get much worse. Ukraine continuing to exist as a Russian puppet state outside the EU would mean another endless humanitarian disaster of a sort the bloc has a terrible history of managing. Yeah this is a good point.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:14
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Shifty Pony posted:I don't get why those drones are flying around Russian assets. You'd think they would be sitting ducks for just about any sort of AA, does the Ukrainian military have something in their arsenal that that makes running radar a risky prospect? Ukrainian military has working aviation, long range artillery (including tactical ballistic missiles), and not only their own SIGINT stuff, but also probably every western radar or satellite that can reach Ukraine.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Oh, Sochi I know - the highway, the dog shooting, the subsequent ghost town, etcetera. I was just under impression that military reforms were actually conducted in good enough faith, despite Shoygu being a palace intrigant first and foremost. That's really the thing: we've all known Russia is a massive kleptocracy held together by duct tape, where the only bits that resemble a first world country are the show cities in Moscow and Petrograd. But the entire world has assumed the military was different because it's the foundation of Russian national pride and great power status. That Russians toned down their institutional rot so they could credibly play Call of Duty villains.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:14
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OgNar posted:Just woke up havent watched it yet. said it in another thread already but it really annoys me that this idiot put himself there intentionally for his youtube channel and then took a seat that was much needed for the actual residents of the country.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:15
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Shifty Pony posted:I don't get why those drones are flying around Russian assets. You'd think they would be sitting ducks for just about any sort of AA, does the Ukrainian military have something in their arsenal that that makes running radar a risky prospect? My understanding is that radar is not something anyone has a poo poo ton of and Russia is likely concentrating what Radars they do have around FOB or areas they plan on being for the long haul. So convoys aren't likely to get radar coverage. Plus drones are small and hard to detect.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:15
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Mooseontheloose posted:I know we shouldn't take the Ukrainian numbers at face value but let's assume the 5K number is halved to 2.5k soldiers killed, isn't losing 2.5% of your operational force before you have even conquered a major city a major loss in terms of man power? European assessment is 4.5k, 20% below Ukrainian 5.3k.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:15
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Majorian posted:It's a bad state of affairs for Ukraine, no question. I just think that looks like, out of the range of likely outcomes for this war, that's probably going to be the best one for Ukraine. As admirably and bravely as they're fighting so far, I don't see them actually winning this thing outright. There's going to have to be a negotiated peace. I could be wrong, and I'd like to be wrong - I'd love it if Ukraine beat the Russians so hard that they don't have to fear Moscow again for the foreseeable future. But I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think Ukraine can win a conventional war against Russia either, especially if Russia decides to just start bombing their cities to rubble. That said, the Russian federalization plan is just the death of the Ukrainian state by other means. I can imagine a promise not to join NATO, but I can't imagine the Ukrainian government agreeing to that.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:16
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Telsa Cola posted:My understanding is that radar is not something anyone has a poo poo ton of and Russia is likely concentrating what Radars they do have around FOB or areas they plan on being for the long haul. So convoys aren't likely to get radar coverage. Also the Russian army is apparently using civilian radios for communication so they may be a little light on the electronics.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:17
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BigRoman posted:I don't think Ukraine can win a conventional war against Russia either, especially if Russia decides to just start bombing their cities to rubble. Everyone is worried that this is the next phase, since just rolling in with a show of bombastic force did not work at all.
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Feb 28, 2022 20:17
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Polish and Moldovan shops in my town have been acting as collection centres for people to drop off supplies of things like baby food, clothes, bandages, charge banks etc. They're organising runs up to Poland to drop said supplies off at the border. Was feeling so helpless and sad today, but felt a tiny bit better after dropping off some stuff. God knows, it wasn't much, but it helps even one refugee feel a tiny bit of normality, I'll sleep better 
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Feb 28, 2022 20:18
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cinci zoo sniper posted:European assessment is 4.5k, 20% below Ukrainian 5.3k. Now is that just killed or killed, wounded, missing and captured?
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Feb 28, 2022 20:18
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