[Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

mediaphage posted:

yeah yellowstone is kind of inconceivable, a thing i read suggested 90k dead from the shockwave alone

That's only like a month and a half of covid. I think we can learn to live with the supervolcanoes.

# ? Feb 28, 2022 20:31

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# ? May 25, 2024 19:17

The Protagonist: Jun 29, 2009; The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

lmao

# ? Feb 28, 2022 20:42

Karach: May 23, 2003; no war but class war

Supervolcanoes Stand with Ukraine

Only registered members can see post attachments!

# ? Feb 28, 2022 20:42

JAY ZERO SUM GAME: Oct 18, 2005; Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.

Karach posted:

Supervolcanoes Stand with Ukraine

# ? Feb 28, 2022 20:47

The Protagonist: Jun 29, 2009; The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

Delineation minutia betwixt the two aside, don't worry goons... There will definitely be nuclear exchange, but not before we do the maximum damage possible by all other means first

# ? Feb 28, 2022 20:53

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

Deep Dish Fuckfest posted:

there was a report, possibly posted in this thread, that looked at the effect of a regional nuclear exchange between pakistan and india, and more specifically the amount of soot that would be thrown into the atmosphere from burning cities. iirc the conclusion was that the resulting global dimming would have a substantial negative effect on agriculture pretty much everywhere for years. so that's cool

also holy poo poo i didn't expect yellowstone to be anywhere near that

Ooo ooo I know this one and I don't think it's been posted yet in this version of the thread

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478

quote:

For the scenario in table S1 with 100 nuclear weapons used by India on Pakistan and 150 nuclear weapons used by Pakistan on India, there are (Fig. 3) 16.1 Tg of BC injected into the upper troposphere (11 from India and 5.1 from Pakistan) for yields of 15 kt, 27.3 Tg (19.8 from India and 7.5 from Pakistan) for 50-kt weapons, and 36.6 Tg (27.5 from India and 9.1 from Pakistan) for 100-kt weapons. These injection amounts are after considering the 20% removal of smoke by precipitation in the rising pyrocumulus.

These BC injections are of considerable concern for the climate. The greatest known natural injection of BC into the stratosphere of ~6 × 10−3 Tg occurred during August 2017 from forest fires in British Columbia (42, 43). These fires led to radiatively forced rise of the smoke from 12 to above 23 km in about 2 months, radiatively driven hemispheric distribution of the smoke in the stratosphere, as well as temperature changes in the smoky layer due to heating by smoke, and ozone changes in the smoke due to vertical transport of low ozone air from the troposphere. The amount of BC in our 15-kt scenario is almost 3000 times more than in this forest fire injection.

quote:

One measure of the impact of these climate changes on life on Earth is the change in net primary productivity (NPP). NPP represents the net amount of inorganic carbon (mainly in the form of carbon dioxide) converted into organic plant matter through photosynthesis after accounting for plant respiration.

...

For an India-Pakistan nuclear scenario using 50-kt weapons, terrestrial NPP reductions are much higher in the Northern Hemisphere than in the global average (Fig. 6, C and D), reaching 100% at latitudes north of about 60°N, averaged over the first 3 years after war. Major crop-growing regions of North America and Eurasia experience declines of NPP averaging 25 to 50% over this time. Very large reductions in NPP occur in India, China, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia, as well as in tropical South America and Africa. Ocean reductions in NPP are highest in the Arctic, where production is almost entirely extinguished. In addition, in many regions where major fisheries exist, production is significantly reduced, including the North Atlantic and North Pacific, where NPP decreases by 25 to 50%. Together, the reductions in temperature, primary productivity, and precipitation suggest major disruptions to human and natural systems worldwide

reminder 85% of Indian drinking water currently comes from groundwater and that 40% of India will have fully depleted groundwater supplies by 2030

# ? Feb 28, 2022 20:55

The Protagonist: Jun 29, 2009; The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

Things aren't that bad yet

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:05

Karach: May 23, 2003; no war but class war

gently caress COREY PERRY posted:

Ooo ooo I know this one and I don't think it's been posted yet in this version of the thread

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478

reminder 85% of Indian drinking water currently comes from groundwater and that 40% of India will have fully depleted groundwater supplies by 2030

hmm that link doesn't work. when was the article published?

'cause the quote you posted says that worst injection so far of BC (Bad Carbon??) into the atmosphere came from the forest fires in Western Canada in 2017. Surely the 2021 forest fires were worse than that? The entire western half of the country had the sun partially shaded out for weeks at a time.

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:05

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

lmfao is this really how you think that scenario would conclude?

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:14

TeenageArchipelago: Jul 23, 2013

If you want to be afraid of a supervolcano erupting, Mount Aso in Japan just got it's alert level raised. If it does erupt it's probably just going to be a small eruption like all the ones in the last few years, but it's at least an eruption!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Brukidi09ZU

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:21

actionjackson: Jan 12, 2003

will there be much warning before the yellowstone caldera happens?

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:29

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

The Protagonist posted:

Things aren't that bad yet

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:31

Karach: May 23, 2003; no war but class war

Hubbert posted:

if you're a sweaty goon who spends all day staring at the back of John Elden's head as you collect rings in George RR Martin Presents the Elder Rings Saga, then yes, things are fine

If you in some way depend on being outside or the natural world for your way of life, things are not at all fine.

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:38

TeenageArchipelago: Jul 23, 2013

actionjackson posted:

will there be much warning before the yellowstone caldera happens?

probably at least a few weeks of "oh poo poo this things about to pop," on top of years or decades of uplift that would have been closely monitored. Yellowstone is one of the most closely monitored volcanoes on the planet.

Worth noting that it has actually erupted a few times since its last supereruption, ~70,000 years ago being the most recent eruption

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/when-was-last-time-yellowstone-erupted

TeenageArchipelago has issued a correction as of 21:42 on Feb 28, 2022

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:38

Pepe Silvia Browne: Jan 1, 2007

Karach posted:

if you're a sweaty goon who spends all day staring at the back of John Elden's head as you collect rings in George RR Martin Presents the Elder Rings Saga, then yes, things are fine

If you in some way depend on being outside or the natural world for your way of life, things are not at all fine.

I think the key part of that post is "yet." everything that is already bad now will soon be much worse.

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:40

Karach: May 23, 2003; no war but class war

oh yeah totally. but we're at the beginning of the vicious downward spiral. it will get worse much, much faster. so you should feel bad right now, just to get yourself used to feeling bad later.

people with chronic depression are the best prepared for the world to come.

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:42

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Karach posted:

if you're a sweaty goon who spends all day staring at the back of John Elden's head as you collect rings in George RR Martin Presents the Elder Rings Saga, then yes, things are fine

If you in some way depend on being outside or the natural world for your way of life, things are not at all fine.

you're gonna love what the rest of the 21st century brings us

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:44

Deep Dish Fuckfest: Sep 6, 2006; Advanced
Computer Touching; Toilet Rascal

gently caress COREY PERRY posted:

Ooo ooo I know this one and I don't think it's been posted yet in this version of the thread

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478

reminder 85% of Indian drinking water currently comes from groundwater and that 40% of India will have fully depleted groundwater supplies by 2030

AND a whole lot of the rivers in india and pakistan have their source in the contested kashmir region

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:52

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

TeenageArchipelago posted:

probably at least a few weeks of "oh poo poo this things about to pop," on top of years or decades of uplift that would have been closely monitored. Yellowstone is one of the most closely monitored volcanoes on the planet.

Worth noting that it has actually erupted a few times since its last supereruption, ~70,000 years ago being the most recent eruption

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/when-was-last-time-yellowstone-erupted

we've stopped monitoring the water levels in our streams and rivers because "its too expensive" so im sure monitoring for volcanoes won't last much longer

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:56

mediaphage: Mar 22, 2007; Excuse me, pardon me, sheer perfection coming through

gently caress COREY PERRY posted:

Ooo ooo I know this one and I don't think it's been posted yet in this version of the thread

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478

reminder 85% of Indian drinking water currently comes from groundwater and that 40% of India will have fully depleted groundwater supplies by 2030

Karach posted:

hmm that link doesn't work. when was the article published?

'cause the quote you posted says that worst injection so far of BC (Bad Carbon??) into the atmosphere came from the forest fires in Western Canada in 2017. Surely the 2021 forest fires were worse than that? The entire western half of the country had the sun partially shaded out for weeks at a time.

in the future, you can just highlight a section and google it.

but it was published in 2019, so. anyway, bc stands for black carbon. the poo poo formed from burning that isn't part of the gaseous carbon.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478

# ? Feb 28, 2022 21:57

Karach: May 23, 2003; no war but class war

thanks teach.

this paper has... quite the abstract. the Open Philanthropy Project must have a special misery research fund.

quote:

Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2� to 5�C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.

# ? Feb 28, 2022 22:03

Deep Dish Fuckfest: Sep 6, 2006; Advanced
Computer Touching; Toilet Rascal

that paper is also where i've learned that pakistan has a "first use if we're invaded" policy, and that they more or less have to use nuclear weapons if they want to stop an indian advance due to the difference in conventional forces they have at their disposal. which is just great

# ? Feb 28, 2022 22:10

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

lmfao is this really how you think that scenario would conclude?

Are you talking to me? I did not draw the comic

# ? Feb 28, 2022 22:11

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Good news! Germany is going 100% renewable! By 2035

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/germany-aims-get-100-energy-renewable-sources-by-2035-2022-02-28/

All is well!

# ? Feb 28, 2022 22:11

Karach: May 23, 2003; no war but class war

SKULL.GIF posted:

Good news! Germany is going 100% renewable! By 2035

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/germany-aims-get-100-energy-renewable-sources-by-2035-2022-02-28/

All is well!

quote:

By then, Germany's onshore wind energy capacity should double to up to 110 gigawatts (GW), offshore wind energy should reach 30 GW - arithmetically the capacity of 10 nuclear plants - and solar energy would more than triple to 200 GW, the paper showed.

this sounds realistic

# ? Feb 28, 2022 22:19

lobotomy molo: May 7, 2007; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

actionjackson posted:

man the world sucks, thank god destiny 2 witch queen and elden ring both came out to distract me

hidden path ahead, but hole

# ? Feb 28, 2022 22:21

lobotomy molo: May 7, 2007; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Karach posted:

Supervolcanoes Stand with Ukraine

hell yeah respirator crew

# ? Feb 28, 2022 22:22

Enfys: Feb 17, 2013; The ocean is calling and I must go

Rectal Death Adept posted:

'A damning indictment': U.N. releases dire new climate change report

Biosphere Collapse: much more negative than expected

ok but haven't you heard that actually it is not doom and gloom

IPCC findings not 'doom and gloom'

quote:

Professor Richard Dawson, one of the lead author on the report�s chapter on cities and a section on coastal settlements, said: �We do need to emphasise that this isn�t doom and gloom, let�s give up now. It�s a wake-up call.

�There�s lots that can be done in terms of managing climate risks without any new technology that we need to create. It�s often about changing what we do now and how we do it,� he told The Journal.

�What we�ve seen is that we still have a window to act on both mitigation to reduce those greenhouse gas emissions and slow the rate of climate change and reduce the intensity of those impacts of climate change, but also to start to take really serious action to adapt and manage the risks that we are already seeing and experiencing and will only grow.�

hmmm

quote:

Managing the risks of coastal flooding and other impacts is more �feasible� if the global temperature rise does not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In August 2021, a different IPCC report on the physical science of climate change found that global heating is virtually certain to pass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, probably within a decade.

oh well

# ? Feb 28, 2022 23:00

Deep Dish Fuckfest: Sep 6, 2006; Advanced
Computer Touching; Toilet Rascal

"it's a wake-up call"

y'know, much like an air raid siren or an earthquake that throws you out of your bed before crushing you in a pile of rubble

# ? Feb 28, 2022 23:07

T-Paine: Dec 12, 2007; Sitting in the Costco food court unmasked, Bible in hand, reading my favorite Psalms to my five children: Abel, Bethany, Carlos, Carlos, and Carlos.

�What we�ve seen is that we still have a window to act on both mitigation to reduce those greenhouse gas emissions and slow the rate of climate change and reduce the intensity of those impacts of climate change, but also to start to take really serious action to adapt and manage the risks that we are already seeing and experiencing and will only grow.�

I hate people like this, and they'll keep saying this poo poo even long after civilization has undeniably collapsed. It's only ever about making the rich as comfortable as possible, we're already allowing the ravages of environmental destruction to destroy the most vulnerable people.

When exactly did we go from "It'll be all right, a political solution will halt climate change completely" to "It'll be a nightmare, but we can still mitigate the oncoming cataclysm"? It has to be within the last ten years, right?

# ? Feb 28, 2022 23:09

Karach: May 23, 2003; no war but class war

there's a weird belief that with enough scientific information at their disposal, our leaders will make the correct decisions.

as a counter-argument, I offer this: [gestures broadly]

# ? Feb 28, 2022 23:12

The Protagonist: Jun 29, 2009; The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

i work at a college and i always get some stares when i tell them the light of science is long dead in america and most of the world

# ? Feb 28, 2022 23:28

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

Enfys posted:

ok but haven't you heard that actually it is not doom and gloom

IPCC findings not 'doom and gloom'

hmmm

oh well

He�s not wrong.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 00:22

skooma512: Feb 8, 2012; You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

I think with Ukraine I'm at my limit at monitoring crises.

There's

* Climate
* COVID
* Economic poo poo
* Ukraine
* China's real estate market
* America's real estate market

Any ships want to get wedged in any more canals?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 00:35

ikanreed: Sep 25, 2009; I honestly I have no idea who cannibal[SIC] is and I do not know why I should know.

syq dude, just syq!

Climate change: we're all prisoners of that dilemma

# ? Mar 1, 2022 00:37

ikanreed: Sep 25, 2009; I honestly I have no idea who cannibal[SIC] is and I do not know why I should know.

syq dude, just syq!

skooma512 posted:

I think with Ukraine I'm at my limit at monitoring crises.

There's

* Climate
* COVID
* Economic poo poo
* Ukraine
* China's real estate market
* America's real estate market

Any ships want to get wedged in any more canals?

Impending and unpreventable control of the federal government by republicans?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 00:45

Cloks: Feb 1, 2013; by Azathoth

skooma512 posted:

I think with Ukraine I'm at my limit at monitoring crises.

There's

* Climate
* COVID
* Economic poo poo
* Ukraine
* China's real estate market
* America's real estate market

Any ships want to get wedged in any more canals?

real estate market is a subset of economic poo poo, you've got room for two more crises

# ? Mar 1, 2022 00:48

tiberion02: Mar 26, 2007; People tend to make the common mistake of believing that a situation will last forever.

skooma512 posted:

I think with Ukraine I'm at my limit at monitoring crises.

There's

* Climate
* COVID
* Economic poo poo
* Ukraine
* China's real estate market
* America's real estate market

Any ships want to get wedged in any more canals?

* the fascists at home
* water
* epistemological crisis

# ? Mar 1, 2022 00:50

Too Many Birds: Jan 8, 2020

we're running out of helium aren't we?

does finite resources fall under the blanket of climate?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 00:51

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# ? May 25, 2024 19:17

Karach: May 23, 2003; no war but class war

impending invasion of Canada by Lauren Boebert Free Army

# ? Mar 1, 2022 00:56

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