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Flesnolk posted:There are like 500 pages since I checked this thread last night, so this one might've been posted already, but what do people think about this thread? It feels like an interesting analysis, and a more sober one than most I've been seeing. Interesting: https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1498125950436790280?s=20&t=THdBkDUfNZZs2U3gDtw9tg
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Mar 1, 2022 00:09
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Tuna-Fish posted:There was a military reformer that actually tried doing that. In 2012, he finally stepped on too many toes and was replaced by a maximally politially suitable person. (Read: allows the most kleptocracy) $78,000 was the javelin missile cost originally in 2002, and so gets quoted around the internet a lot, but its actually far more now. As of 2021 its approx $175,000[1] This is one of the reasons the amount of them that Ukraine has been using has caught the Russians so offguard. Theres no way Ukraine would have been able to afford javelins in large numbers before the US/EU started throwing weapons at them in large numbers in only the immediate last few months. [1] https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2021/Base%20Budget/Procurement/MSLS_FY_2021_PB_Missile_Procurement_Army.pdf
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Mar 1, 2022 00:09
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DOOMocrat posted:If there's anything I've personally given up on over the past ten years, it's that information changes minds. I want nothing more for you to be right but I really don't think so. I'm not sure if there's ever been a similar situation in Russia or other authoritarian countries - best analogy is probably color revolutions protesting a government. But the Ukraine war is deeply unpopular with most Russians who are aware of whats happening. If Russians keep sending in cannon fodder I don't see there being fervent patriotic support, and if there will be a lot of dead Ukrainian civilians, that won't go well for them either. If Putin can actually get his messaging across that he's taking on a neo Nazi regime who are killing ethnic Russians and that this is an existential problem for Russia, then things become more challenging. But he needs more support for his war if he wants to continue it.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:09
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I do not think a nation with most labor age men dead, burning to cinders, and the expense that comes with that is something the Russian Federation wants. If Russia did control Ukraine it would make American control of Iraq and Afghanistan look downright orderly. Millions are suffering vs. Billions could die is not an unreasonable parable; a lot of the anger is just lack of control. Good news on that, though; you weren't in control before either.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:09
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fuctifino posted:This thread used to be a good source of currents events and info about the war in Ukraine. It's mostly a TV/IV liveposting thread and occasionally D&D/C-SPAM all-stars stop by to do their thing. Check back in twenty minutes.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:10
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The whole situation is scary and poo poo but it also feels like the European / global response has been highly appropriate. In all likelihood Putin will still take Ukraine and we'll be accused in the future of having not done enough but at least its clear there is a cost and that the more he pushes the higher the cost will get. To take a smaller example from the UK, we did practically nothing when Putin assassinated Litvinenko on UK soil with radioactive material. 10 years later we got the novichok nerve agent attacks and other 'statement' assassinations of Russians in the UK. It's not OK and we should have made way more of a big deal of it the first time it happened.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:10
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I'll help with some news: boomer Russians aren't gonna be able to be in denial much longer. https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1498434791364042754?t=whJ8GbjlKzT1mGwyGRjtMQ&s=19 This is gonna hit them a lot harder than younger generations if housing statistics are similar to literally everywhere else
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Mar 1, 2022 00:11
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Kill All Cops posted:I'm not sure if there's ever been a similar situation in Russia or other authoritarian countries - best analogy is probably color revolutions protesting a government. But the Ukraine war is deeply unpopular with most Russians who are aware of whats happening. If Russians keep sending in cannon fodder I don't see there being fervent patriotic support, and if there will be a lot of dead Ukrainian civilians, that won't go well for them either. If Putin can actually get his messaging across that he's taking on a neo Nazi regime who are killing ethnic Russians and that this is an existential problem for Russia, then things become more challenging. But he needs more support for his war if he wants to continue it. I see what you're saying, but democracy is in no way required to keep the Russian president in control; at least not since 2004. Arguably never. KitConstantine posted:This is gonna hit them a lot harder than younger generations if housing statistics are similar to literally everywhere else I think it was one of our Russian posters that ways saying most Russian army professionals only do so because it means an apartment.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:11
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Can we rate Russia's performance so far on an inverted scale of Germany invading Poland in WWII to Fame Douglas' posting?
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Mar 1, 2022 00:11
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Sodomy Hussein posted:It's mostly a TV/IV liveposting thread and occasionally D&D/C-SPAM all-stars stop by to do their thing. Check back in twenty minutes. For we were posters once....and young
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Mar 1, 2022 00:12
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GTO posted:The whole situation is scary and poo poo but it also feels like the European / global response has been highly appropriate. In all likelihood Putin will still take Ukraine and we'll be accused in the future of having not done enough but at least its clear there is a cost and that the more he pushes the higher the cost will get. Shrugging only emboldens awful people.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:13
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Vorenus posted:Can we rate Russia's performance so far on an inverted scale of Germany invading Poland in WWII to Fame Douglas' posting? I think my favorite part is how Russia's military has taken NONE of the lessons of Blitzkrieg to heart, such as multi echelons to ensure secured logistical pipelines. Its almost hilarious.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:13
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Panzeh posted:The argument is that that is the consequence of the action, not necessarily that you prefer that outcome. The consequences of military intervention include, potentially, a broader regional war, up to, potentially, actual nuclear war. Also, depending on the degree of intervention, Russia may still ultimately achieve their immediate military goals in Ukraine, and the loss of life in Ukraine could be greatly worsened. The potential consequences are really the whole reason to pause and think. Very few people actually prefer that Russia take control of Ukraine or otherwise take any of its territory.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:14
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Some more news: Canada is banning Russian oil imports https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498420301390131203?t=wLCydzkrTx89bVp5bzsdWA&s=19 I wonder how this is gonna affect North American oil exports in general. I'm assuming a lot more is going to get held back for home use, especially if Saudi Arabia continues supporting Russia.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:14
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fuctifino posted:This thread used to be a good source of currents events and info about the war in Ukraine. Information has also slowed considerably while Russia (presumably) regroups and switches tactics to siege/urban warfare from air assault/shock and awe. A lot of sources of info in Ukraine are either catching up on sleep or have gone dark. And there's a propaganda war going on which makes it even harder to get good info, even from previously good accounts on Twitter.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:15
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KitConstantine posted:I edited the tweet out of the original post and put a direct link to the article instead. It matched the tweet when I posted, but I clicked through again and it's been updated significantly walking back the claims
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Mar 1, 2022 00:15
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CommieGIR posted:I think my favorite part is how Russia's military has taken NONE of the lessons of Blitzkrieg to heart, such as multi echelons to ensure secured logistical pipelines. Well see if you count the echelon that shot up the lightpole, the riot police echelon, the out-of-gas-getting-heckled-by-Ukrainians echelon(s)... Vorenus posted:
I was kind of (not really) close
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Mar 1, 2022 00:16
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Vorenus posted:Well see if you count the echelon that shot up the lightpole, the riot police echelon, the out-of-gas-getting-heckled-by-Ukrainians echelon(s)... That video of them shooting up a static APC used as a monument too.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:19
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KitConstantine posted:Some more news: Canada is banning Russian oil imports I would assume this will probably make the shale operations viable again in the short term. Remember OPEC hated them so much they manipulated the markets to put them out of business. Long term I have to think that getting everyone off of oil and natural gas will be a major priority. You will have Green advocates be able to frame this as a national security issue going forward.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:19
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Invading is hard, is what I'm learning here.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:20
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Panzeh posted:The argument is that that is the consequence of the action, not necessarily that you prefer that outcome. NATO/US/EU are not gravity or the wind. They are actors, with agency. Even if we think they HAVE to make a specific choice (because the alternative is monstrous), the choice is still made by them! Its really weird to see these posts denying agency to some of the most powerful entities in the world.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:20
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Grouchio posted:Wait how are the claims walked back when it still says "Our partners are handing over MiG-29s and Su-25s to us! If necessary, they will be able to be based on Polish airfields, from which Ukrainian pilots will carry out combat missions, Goncharenko said." That's what I get for work posting, I just straight up removed the link now.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:21
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Shinjobi posted:Invading is hard, is what I'm learning here. I'd almost argue otherwise: Russia has openly demonstrated that not only has all their showy military maneuvers been largely just that, a show, they apparently don't grasp or understand some very core concepts behind logistics in the field that most other armies have long since both grasped and exercised before.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:22
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Tank posters - is this a for real T-90? I thought there weren't too many of those https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1498425709546586115?t=TALPW_0yYJr3ZNsQk414zA&s=19 My penance for starting the blow up is to slave in the twitter mines and avoid any further sketchy articles
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Mar 1, 2022 00:23
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CommieGIR posted:That video of them shooting up a static APC used as a monument too. OP is referring to that (i think), and how they missed the statue and hit the pole, lol. https://twitter.com/NickPoole1/status/1498309449169178634
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Mar 1, 2022 00:23
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Not an expert but that definitely appears to be a T-90. I'm almost impressed we haven't seen the same thing with Russian jets. "Welp, no more fuel, better eject and see if anyone down there can give me a change of underwear"
Vorenus fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 00:25
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Varinn posted:NATO/US/EU are not gravity or the wind. They are actors, with agency. So is Russia? Nobody forced Putin to start this war of aggression and the entire world pretty categorically stated that there would be dire consequences for it.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:25
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CommieGIR posted:I'd almost argue otherwise: Russia has openly demonstrated that not only has all their showy military maneuvers been largely just that, a show, they apparently don't grasp or understand some very core concepts behind logistics in the field that most other armies have long since both grasped and exercised before. Well part of it is always execution, but as mentioned previously if they're trying to do the "invade but don't reduce everything to rubble and waste" then they're going about this in the worst way. You have a better chance of that kind of invasion if the country in question actually does welcome you as liberators. If they don't, good loving luck. It's gonna get messy even if you do everything right--urban warfare sucks rear end. Russia has made mistakes and also they bought into their own bullshit, is really my takeaway.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:25
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KitConstantine posted:Tank posters - is this a for real T-90? I thought there weren't too many of those That does appear to be a T-90 based on the turret, gun, chassis, and the IR countermeasures system.  The wheels and road gear are also a dead match.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:25
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Tuna-Fish posted:There was a military reformer that actually tried doing that. In 2012, he finally stepped on too many toes and was replaced by a maximally politially suitable person. (Read: allows the most kleptocracy) I misspoke there, I should’ve said “continued” instead of “conducted”. I’m aware of Serdyukov, outline of the history of Russia’s military reforms, and how Serdyukov got kicked out for pissing off too many lobbyists. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:34 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 00:26
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KitConstantine posted:That's what I get for work posting, I just straight up removed the link now.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:26
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Have some more Ukrainian legends joyriding in a stolen tank https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1498422823416647682?t=fmbnnsc7ec5XnfremXqSFg&s=19
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Mar 1, 2022 00:27
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KitConstantine posted:I'll help with some news: boomer Russians aren't gonna be able to be in denial much longer. Not only that, according to a guy I saw on DW a couple of hours ago, a whole lot of mortgages are denominated in other currencies than the rouble, so those folks are going to be in a bit of trouble. On the whole, I feel this will have long lasting consequences for the economy and standard of living.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:27
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KitConstantine posted:Tank posters - is this a for real T-90? I thought there weren't too many of those Yep, that's a T-90. Also, they built some 3,000 of the things but most of them are in Indian and Algerian service. Russia still has few hundred. Bit less than that now.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:27
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https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498438289598337024 Can't tell if serious or just clever British counterconditioning.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:28
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KitConstantine posted:Some more news: Canada is banning Russian oil imports For Canada it will change almost nothing. Like 95%+ of Canadian oil is sent to the US for refining anyway. If they are already exporting so much of their oil to the US I doubt they are importing much from Russia.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:29
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KitConstantine posted:I'll help with some news: boomer Russians aren't gonna be able to be in denial much longer. Might as well put the house on your Visa, cripes.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:29
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I misspoke there, I should’ve said “continued” instead of “conducted”. I’m aware of Serdykov, outline of the history of Russia’s military reforms, and how Serdyukov got kicked out for pissing off too many lobbyists. Whenever anyone in post ussr Russia tried to modernize state agencies, military and so on. They either got fired or fell off a building
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Mar 1, 2022 00:30
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KitConstantine posted:Have some more Ukrainian legends joyriding in a stolen tank Do you bring these to your local military guy and say, hey! free tank.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:30
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KitConstantine posted:Have some more Ukrainian legends joyriding in a stolen tank Whatever the future holds, it's amazing that Russia has been utterly humiliated more in a week than the US was in two loving decade in the ME. That is possibly a more impressive achievement than unifying NATO and drawing record sanctions combined. Waiting for some Kyiv mechanic to go viral on social media for figuring out how to chop shop stolen military vehicle parts into civilian vehicles.
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