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Yeah I don’t see how that scholar’s situation warrants more than just basic sympathy. It’s clearly not a great argument against the sanctions targeted at the accumulated wealth of Russian oligarchs, or an argument against one of the very few nonviolent approaches the world can take against Russian aggression.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:35
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I've just spoken with a Russian friend of mine and he's deeply upset by the events here. He used to be a major Putin stan but after this he straight up told me "gently caress Putin". He feels the Ukrainians are brethren and the Russians should never have taken up arms against their own people. "Might as well invade my hometown then! Same thing!" He's also terribly upset because the Russian army has been betrayed by Putin. He told them this was just an exercise, a country drive back and forth. That's it. None of these conscripts thought they were going to go to war nor were they prepared for that possibility. They didn't even think they would ever start shooting at Ukrainians, which again they thought were just one of them and that it wasn't something worth going to war over. In other words a lot of people feel that Putin has betrayed Russian soldiers and is getting a lot of 18 year olds killed. Says this is stone cold Stalinist poo poo and in classic style they're being used as meat to be thrown into the grinder with zero remorse. He also says that after this basically any Russian independence or influence on the global stage is over. Their economy, intellectual property and industry will be subsumed and "rescued" by China and he thinks they might even have to hand over Vladivostok. From a global perspective giving China free reign over Russia is very bad loving news for the rest of us.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:35
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Ciprian Maricon posted:The nations that have been suggested all denied this is happening. I saw Bulgaria did--do you have links for the other two (Slovakia and Poland)?
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Mar 1, 2022 01:37
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Tiny Timbs posted:Yeah I don’t see how that scholar’s situation warrants more than just basic sympathy. It’s clearly not a great argument against the sanctions targeted at the accumulated wealth of Russian oligarchs, or an argument against one of the very few nonviolent approaches the world can take against Russian aggression. We sanctioned the central bank, theres nothing targeted about them anymore lmao and the entire history of US sanctions shows that theyre only nonviolent in so much as they obfuscate the violence they cause.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:38
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The average Russian has no more say over what Putin does than the average Iraqi had over Saddam. It is unfortunate that innocent russians will suffer economic hardships from the sanctions, much like it's sad that likely a lot of Russian teenagers who got conscripted will die in Ukraine despite not wanting to be there. Unfortunately dictators structure their societies such that any effective sanctions on state actions will invariably also affect civillians. At the end of the day it's a cost/benefit of what will cause the least amount of suffering, where some economic hardships for Russians is worth it if it stops Russia from bombing urban areas in Ukraine. This kind of trade-off is considered in pretty much all sanctions, for example the international community tries to sustain very harsh sanctions on North Korea - but not so harsh that north koreans start dying from famine
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Mar 1, 2022 01:39
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Walh Hara posted:Honestly? I hope this is the reaction from now on whenever a country invades another country just for territorial gain. While a popular sentiment, the idea that Russian citizens are able to effect any sort of change is a pipe dream considering they have a long history of being violently and murderously oppressed the moment they step out of line from Tsarist Russia to present. Their instinct will be to try to survive between a rock and a hard place, while any who get out of line will be dealt with special police or worse. Ultimately, the Russian people will suffer for Putin’s insane attack on Ukraine, despite never having a chance at a better leader, considering even the limited selection they got were killed off or the vote was rigged to begin with.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:39
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Tiny Timbs posted:Yeah I don’t see how that scholar’s situation warrants more than just basic sympathy. It’s clearly not a great argument against the sanctions targeted at the accumulated wealth of Russian oligarchs, or an argument against one of the very few nonviolent approaches the world can take against Russian aggression. Sanctions are not the problem per se; saying "you haven't done enough" to people actively doing more than enough while subjecting themselves to huge risks is. Especially if it's being said by people in cushy Western countries under no immediate danger. Kraftwerk posted:I've just spoken with a Russian friend of mine and he's deeply upset by the events here. He used to be a major Putin stan but after this he straight up told me "gently caress Putin". This is very similar to what I'm hearing from friends in Russia and EE, and some formerly Putin-stanning elderly family members too, with very similar reasoning.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:40
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ElrondHubbard posted:While a popular sentiment, the idea that Russian citizens are able to effect any sort of change is a pipe dream considering they have a long history of being violently and murderously oppressed the moment they step out of line from Tsarist Russia to present. Their instinct will be to try to survive between a rock and a hard place, while any who get out of line will be dealt with special police or worse. Ultimately, the Russian people will suffer for Putin’s insane attack on Ukraine, despite never having a chance at a better leader, considering even the limited selection they got were killed off or the vote was rigged to begin with. Clearly, the Russians are the real victims here.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:41
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Varinn posted:We sanctioned the central bank, theres nothing targeted about them anymore lmao What is the alternative path other than sanctions. To add, yea sanctions are going to have collateral damage, which is regrettable. But right now that collateral damage doesn't seem to be "famine" it seems to be "consequences for your academic career."
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Mar 1, 2022 01:41
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Roy Cooper just banned the sell of Russian spirits from liquor stores, which he actually has the power to do since all alcohol sales in North Carolina are through the state. So uh....cool I guess. I'll just keep sucking down Titos.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:42
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Varinn posted:We sanctioned the central bank, theres nothing targeted about them anymore lmao What action would you prefer?
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Mar 1, 2022 01:42
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Deteriorata posted:Clearly, the Russians are the real victims here. That is not what they're saying.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:42
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Putin has been telling Russian people Ukrainians are just Russians since 2014, then is surprised when average Russians who believe him are angry he has invaded what he has told them is basically a part of Russia? Not a masterplan there.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:42
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buglord posted:This was brought up dozens of pages ago but it’s lodged in my head: It depends on how you view the likely escalation steps for each side and just exactly how poorly the Russian army is doing. Depending on how you view the variables your offramp maybe different than mine or you might think that there should be no offramps at all. For example lets examine some simplistic scenarios based on a set of arbitrary beliefs Scenario 1: -Putin is actually just a big bully who doesn't actually have the stomach for a long war or use nuclear weapons regardless of the battlefield outcome or who intervenes. He will also cave to sanctions in a months time as the effects are felt. -Russian Army is performing as badly as all the Ukrainian twitter propaganda would have you believe and what you are seeing is the very best they can possibly do -If faced with a total battlefield collapse, Putin is prepared to effectively surrender all gains made in 2014 including Crimea and the Donbas to end the war and sanctions. Scenario 2: -Putin is actually mustache-twirling insane and is willing to see Russia burned in nuclear fire and views that if 1 Russian man and 1 Russian woman survive while the rest of the world is gone then it is a victory worth having -Russian Army is actually fighting with 1 hand tied behind his back and the Ukrainians actually have no chance in a sustained conflict without direct Western intervention. -Putin will link any battlefield setbacks, much less failures based on Western weapon shipments as a direct act of war and will escalate all the way up to strategic nuclear weapons in response. Your actions towards Russia based on these two unrealistic sets of assumptions would clearly be different I would think. In scenario 1, you don't offer Putin any offramp at all and you start the NATO air campaign to put this thing in bed before the week is out. In scenario 2, you stop all weapon shipments to Ukraine and start building the Fallout Vaults because the world will be nuclear ash by the end of the year unless we all bow down to Putin and start learning Russian. If you believe that Putin is rational, but willing to put Russia through extreme pain because he views NATO in a pure balance of power politics lens, that he will retaliate with escalating force including nuclear weapons if an outside actor starts to intervene directly, and that the Ukrainians will lose in the entirety of their territory in the long term regardless of how many weapons we shovel into the country, then it makes sense for both sides to find an off-ramp that the Ukrainians and Putin would find acceptable. And the sooner they do so that the less blood gets spilled for the same eventual outcome.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:43
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Sir John Falstaff posted:I saw Bulgaria did--do you have links for the other two (Slovakia and Poland)? Here's Poland: https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wsparcie-wojskowe-dla-ukrainy-plany-wyslania-polskich-mysliwcow-ukrainie/pgr3zz9,79cfc278 It was in the thread I'll find Slovakia in a moment
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Mar 1, 2022 01:43
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nurmie posted:Sanctions are not the problem per se; saying "you haven't done enough" to people actively doing more than enough while subjecting themselves to huge risks is. Especially if it's being said by people in cushy Western countries under no immediate danger. I guess I don't understand what point you're trying to make--there's no way to carve out an exception for just "people trying to stop the regime."
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Mar 1, 2022 01:44
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Majorian posted:That is not what they're saying. They're not saying much of anything beyond pointing out that war is, in fact, bad. It is not the profound revelation they think it is.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:44
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Deteriorata posted:Clearly, the Russians are the real victims here. I don’t disagree with sanctions or even the extent. Merely the jovial tone of how these sanctions should be welcomed and enjoyed by Russian citizens. It honestly sounds like psychotic glee at the suffering of others
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Mar 1, 2022 01:45
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nurmie posted:The anti-war protestors in Russia have a significant chance to get dissapeared or spend 15 years in prison or get the broomhandle treatment in the detention centre (no, don't google that). Which is why putting a moral obligation on them to end Putin's regime seems a bit cruel to me, personally. I don't wish for anyone in Russia to be harmed, but at the same time I'm asking myself how it is the responsibility of other countries to avoid putting a population in a position where they might be harmed by their own despotic government, while that same government is actively causing harm to the populations of other countries. They are not be responsible for that government coming into being, but it can only exist as long the majority of the population is content enough with life under it to not seek to overthrow it. It's not fair to try and force the Russian people to risk their lives in opposition to their own governments, but neither does it seem fair to tell the people of other countries that they have to just accept that the Russian government remains in place to inflict violence upon them when it chooses to, because the threat of MAD makes removal of the Russian government from outside an impossible scenario.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:45
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Ciprian Maricon posted:Here's Poland: https://domov.sme.sk/c/22850575/ukrajina-vojna-slovensko-vojenska-pomoc-stihacky.html Denial from Slovakia as well here
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Mar 1, 2022 01:46
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Do we think Putin is really at the point of paranoia where he is demanding that literally every meal prepared for him is "tested' by someone else before he takes a bite? Every glass of water? I think the difference between Hitler and Putin is that Hitler still had a ton of people around him that genuinely believed in the Nazi cause. I'm not sure many people around Putin actually give a poo poo about this whole greater Russia sphere of influence bullshit, they are just happy to take the money.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:46
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Tiny Timbs posted:Yeah I don’t see how that scholar’s situation warrants more than just basic sympathy. It’s clearly not a great argument against the sanctions targeted at the accumulated wealth of Russian oligarchs, or an argument against one of the very few nonviolent approaches the world can take against Russian aggression. The scholar's tweet isn't even about the sanctions, and whomever used his situation as evidence against them was wrong to do so in the first place. And yeah, basic sympathy is absolutely what's warranted here. But that's already a lot more than accusing him of crocodile tears, or effectively telling him to get hosed.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:46
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In news from the site of the war that's happening right now - can anyone translate this a bit? https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1498457522419769351?s=20&t=jnjihKjJ-9q1zWU5k5gyHQ I've been seeing a ton more videos of straight up abandoned equipment - not stuck. Not out of gas. Just left. I think morale is becoming even more of an issue pretty quick. Especially since Ukraine cell services are now reported to be blocking numbers with Russian codes. Edit: Here's a compilation video - there's some very dead bodies shown  https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1498452401589731335?s=20&t=oY7Q2xcWO-LFAK0RsQzBSw
KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 01:50 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 01:46
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Upgrade posted:What is the alternative path other than sanctions. people are paid millions of dollars and elected to be heads of state to figure this out. i make near minimum wage, brother "oh yeah, whats your idea then?" has never been an acceptable answer to "hey this thing seems pretty bad, we should acknowledge the reality of the misery it will cause"
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Mar 1, 2022 01:46
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Ciprian Maricon posted:Here's Poland: Thanks--sounds like they haven't said "no," just that they're thinking about it. Slovakia sounds like a definite "no," though.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:47
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nurmie posted:Sanctions are not the problem per se; saying "you haven't done enough" to people actively doing more than enough while subjecting themselves to huge risks is. Especially if it's being said by people in cushy Western countries under no immediate danger. Ok well I hope the people handling conference registrations or whatever stop being dicks to Russian academics
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Mar 1, 2022 01:47
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Willo567 posted:Would Russia actually try to test this, or is it more fear mongering from Rubio? I think that's less "fearmongering" and more "threatening".
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Mar 1, 2022 01:47
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The vibe I am getting right now from Europe as a whole is that the European’s are rolling up their sleeves and saying, “gently caress it. You want to fight, Putin, bring it…” While the United States is the friend in the corner of the bar saying, “guys that dude’s got a gun, I am all up for standing up for the dude he’s beating up on, but maybe trying to get into a fist fight with him is a bad idea.” No judgement here towards either side, just the overall vibe. By the way, Putin, you know you done hosed up when the entire European continent, including Switzerland, wants to kick you in the balls.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:47
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Deteriorata posted:Clearly, the Russians are the real victims here. "the Russians" are neither the victims nor the perpetrators. There's plenty of Russians hiding in bombshelters in Ukraine right now, there's also very guilty Russians in Putin's circle and completely innocent Russians with normal jobs in Moscow. The civilian population in a dictatorship are not to blame.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:48
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Putin has been telling Russian people Ukrainians are just Russians since 2014, then is surprised when average Russians who believe him are angry he has invaded what he has told them is basically a part of Russia? Not a masterplan there. Yeah, I genuinely think his self-isolation during the pandemic has genuinely had an effect on his worldview. It feels like he assumed that his brand of Russian chauvinist nationalism had sunk more deeply into the Russian collective psyche. Now he emerges, thinking that his country will view the war as a liberation of their "Little Russian" brothers from the homonazis and whatnot. Instead he finds that they care more about COVID, the economy, restoring pensions and benefits to their previous higher level, etc. Imagine that!
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Mar 1, 2022 01:48
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Brent vs. Urals now at -$10 https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference
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Mar 1, 2022 01:48
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MikeC posted:It depends on how you view the likely escalation steps for each side and just exactly how poorly the Russian army is doing. Depending on how you view the variables your offramp maybe different than mine or you might think that there should be no offramps at all. For example lets examine some simplistic scenarios based on a set of arbitrary beliefs I wonder how likely it is Putin would settle for something like what you said earlier were breakaway regions are brought into Russia and some kind of deal were Ukraine doesn't join NATO. Personally, that what I would do I were him at this point. It doesn't seem like he's ever going to get what he wants - Ukraine as a Russian controlled proxy state and get this while not starting a big fight for it.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:48
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Tiny Timbs posted:Ok well I hope the people handling conference registrations or whatever stop being dicks to Russian academics I don't think this concerns only people handling conference registrations.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:49
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Varinn posted:people are paid millions of dollars and elected to be heads of state to figure this out. i make near minimum wage, brother Russia is causing plenty of misery in Ukraine. It doesn't bother me that some of that is boomeranging back onto Russia. War sucks, everybody gets hurt. There is no better idea, which is why they're using sanctions. They're a blunt instrument, but the only one available.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:49
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Deteriorata posted:Clearly, the Russians are the real victims here. russian people who don't support this insane aggressive war, which is a bunch of them, are about to get hosed because of this, yeah. I doubt I've said a single favorable word about russia (beyond about the people and the food) in a decade of russia posting, but yeah man I feel for them. Besides, I know russians who get paid in usd because they do international contract work and poo poo and they're all hosed and trying to figure out how they will be able to pay rent. poo poo is hosed. sucks way less than having literal bombs fall on you because you live nextdoor to an invasion-hungry rear end in a top hat, but it still sucks
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Mar 1, 2022 01:50
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ZombieLenin posted:The vibe I am getting right now from Europe as a whole is that the European’s are rolling up their sleeves and saying, “gently caress it. You want to fight, Putin, bring it…” Come on dude, this is fantasy. What we're seeing is a mandated return to Cold War-style proxy wars, and an increasing interest amongst European countries in their own self defense, and their interest in helping fund a proxy war.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:50
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I'm surprised we're not hearing more about relentless drone striking of that monstrously long convoy closing on Kiev, mines laid in its obvious path, artillery strikes, etc. I guess it's pretty heavily screened, but all the same it also seems a rather conspicuous target, all bunched up and strung out like that. I suppose it could just be a lack of information at this stage as well.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:50
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Xotl posted:I'm surprised we're not hearing more about relentless drone striking of that monstrously long convoy closing on Kiev, mines laid in its obvious path, artillery strikes, etc. I guess it's pretty heavily screened, but all the same it also seems a rather conspicuous target, all bunched up and strung out like that. They probably don't have very many drones.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:50
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Upgrade posted:Come on dude, this is fantasy. eh I think it might just be the other end of 'nato isn't starting a nuclear war over ukraine' is a bunch of the EU appears convinced that Putin isn't starting a nuclear war over ukraine, either.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:52
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Thanks--sounds like they haven't said "no," just that they're thinking about it. Slovakia sounds like a definite "no," though. It's certainly better than being mocked as ridiculous the way the Bulgarian PM did, but I just don't think its likely, all of the same reasons why Slovakia and Bulgaria didn't consider just handing over huge swathes of their air force to Ukraine apply to Poland.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:52
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