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Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

mustard_tiger posted:

Didn't it take the US and coalition a month to capture Baghdad? I don't think we can call the Ukrainian defense a success yet. They definitely are holding their own so far and have won the media war also.

Yes, though the US didn't lose 5000 dead and hundreds of armored vehicles doing so. Ukraine is still very likely to lose the conventional, military fight, but there is a small hope, perhaps.

If Odessa has Javelins, I wonder how those perform over salt water. They have a 2km range. I can' t imagine trying a contested landing even in normal surf and having to drive through Javelin fire.

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d64
Jan 15, 2003

spacetoaster posted:

Honestly I have no idea what they're seeing/hearing.

I'd ask, but they're kinda scrambling right now with the Russian economy tanking. It's late there now, I might call in the morning and try to suss out more.

I feel like eventually it'll become very obvious to them at some point, I just don't know when.

You have a more direct view to this than I, but I read many people had the idea that the sanctions were mostly put in place because the west again wants to victimize Russia for whatever nefarious reasons, and the Ukraine crisis is just an excuse for it. Meaning there's a lot of people who won't soon start thinking "maybe we should think again about this invasion, so we could get rid of some of these sanctions."

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




mmkay posted:

I'm assuming there's visa free travel for Belarusians in Georgia?

Yes, it is a very obvious destination if you don't have Shenghen. Maybe I'm a pessimist but it doesnt look super good with 1000s of belarusians suddenly swarming in and "now what?"

E: its the IT sector evacuating due to their customers unable to work with them anymore. Thosr who don't have Shenghen are going to Georgia to get it here

Sekenr fucked around with this message at 21:04 on Mar 1, 2022

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


steinrokkan posted:

Ukraine has Air Force, too (theoretically)

Man, did I misunderstand you. I apologize.

biglads
Feb 21, 2007

I could've gone to Blatherwycke



I am pleased that watching YouTube videos from Life of Boris etc. has helped me in understanding some of the videos posted on twitter. I don't speak any Ukranian or Russian, but around 1/3rd of the words are "cyka", "blyat" and something sounding like "Rooski" that I can pick up the general vibe. I even think I heard a "pizdec" in the video with the out of date ration packs.

Zhanism
Apr 1, 2005
Death by Zhanism. So Judged.

Ynglaur posted:

Yes, though the US didn't lose 5000 dead and hundreds of armored vehicles doing so. Ukraine is still very likely to lose the conventional, military fight, but there is a small hope, perhaps.

If Odessa has Javelins, I wonder how those perform over salt water. They have a 2km range. I can' t imagine trying a contested landing even in normal surf and having to drive through Javelin fire.

They work fine. They arent going to try to be torpedo's.

thunderspanks
Nov 5, 2003

crucify this


mustard_tiger posted:

Didn't it take the US and coalition a month to capture Baghdad?

Will Russia even be able to pay their troops in a month?

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



Ynglaur posted:

If Odessa has Javelins, I wonder how those perform over salt water. They have a 2km range. I can' t imagine trying a contested landing even in normal surf and having to drive through Javelin fire.

They are as effective over water as over land. The least obstructions and obstacles like trees, wires, etc the better. Urban is probably the least forgiving environment for their use.

Edit: Source
https://twitter.com/Navyfi/status/1135543905968119808?s=20&t=VnduaP05jFFtWkdACJF9Dw

Zhanism
Apr 1, 2005
Death by Zhanism. So Judged.

thunderspanks posted:

Will Russia even be able to pay their troops in a month?

Heros of the soviet union dont work for money.

Neo_Crimson
Aug 15, 2011

"Is that your final dandy?"

biglads posted:

I am pleased that watching YouTube videos from Life of Boris etc. has helped me in understanding some of the videos posted on twitter. I don't speak any Ukranian or Russian, but around 1/3rd of the words are "cyka", "blyat" and something sounding like "Rooski" that I can pick up the general vibe. I even think I heard a "pizdec" in the video with the out of date ration packs.

This is the Slavic version of weaboos trying to learn Japanese from anime.

Xombie
May 22, 2004

Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

I have always appreciated that this forums makes me think and consider other viewpoints on major geopolitical events, as well as a place to laugh instead of cry (cspam) at the horrors.

I haven't viewed conflict as good guy vs bad guy for a long time and the current conflict is stunningly complex and awful.[/quote]

That doesn't make you as intelligent or correct as you think it does.

quote:

I hate that Russia invaded. Putin should bear primary responsibility for this atrocity.

Who's the second person? Because Putin is the one faking a pretext for war and then invading a neighboring country.

quote:

I hate nazis and have been devastated at the rise in literal nazism occuring and now the prolific hate crimes being committed by Russian Nazis, Ukrainian Nazis, & Polish Nazis. I sincerely hope only Nazis die in the remaining future of this god awful war.

It's interesting that the "Ukraine is Nazi's" line is dissolving into "everyone is Nazis" now that people are being reminded that Russia employs a neo-Nazi PMC.

This of course continues to ignore that Zelenskyy is Jewish.

quote:

Zelensky deserves blame for failing in the same ways as the Kosovo nightmare by arming citizens both too soon and at all. Most people when not being bombarded with nationalistic propaganda simply want to live. Putin being cartoonishly evil does not absolve Zelensky.

This is by far the weakest propaganda that you are falling for. Even a cursory thought wouldn't bear this out, as Ukraine has been under constant threat of Russia for the past 8 years. They have adults who know how to use a gun. You act like this is Germany handing grenades to 12 year old scouts as Berlin falls.

I do not, for a second, believe that you would hold your own causes to the same "lay down and die" standard. Especially when faced with an opponent as genocidal and vicious as the Russian government. The current regime of Ukraine exists because no, they were not better off under Russian control.

quote:

It disappoints me greatly to see the western world uniting around supporting Zelensky and Ukrainian propaganda that is resulting in death, increased military spending, and my own tax dollars being sent for a vague "aid". What good could possible come from the DoD's $600MM given after war started?

This isn't "vague", you're just ignorant about it. We have been aiding Ukraine for 8 years. Trump was impeached for suspending $400m in aid to Ukraine to try to extort them. By that time, in 2019, we had already spend $1.6 BILLION on aid to Ukraine since 2014.

quote:

I know "posting is praxis" can be controversial, but given how important memes are to the current situation, it must be true to a degree. Instead of posting another ghost of kiev meme to your social medias, maybe consider a reiteration that people are suffering and war is not inevitable.

War is, in fact, inevitable if a person like Putin decides it is inevitable. You're wondering why the US and everyone else supporting Ukraine? Because appeasement. Doesn't. Work. The idea that Putin would get Ukraine and just be content with that, riding off into the sunset is not borne out of any sense of reality.

Xombie fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Mar 1, 2022

biglads
Feb 21, 2007

I could've gone to Blatherwycke



Neo_Crimson posted:

This is the Slavic version of weaboos trying to learn Japanese from anime.

Slavaboos?

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

thunderspanks posted:

Will Russia even be able to pay their troops in a month?

I'm assuming they're paid in rubles so yeah probably?

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep
The most interesting thing about the Ghost story is that it turns out that the Russian military was in such absolute operational shambles at the onset that you could have had a situation in which a single available jet was out popping a string of russian air resources whose pilots were unknowingly stretched out in very hostile territory without any real support or coordination.

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Take a page from the Nazis and artificially fix the exchange rate of Ukrainian currency to rubles to massively favor the ruble in occupied territories. For sure, that will work.

Pissed Ape Sexist
Apr 19, 2008

Randarkman posted:

The entire Ukrainian airforce is the Ghost of Kyiv, they take turns, the ghost is their collective genius given form.

The Dread Pilot Roberts

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes

quote:

Plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages, some Russian troops in Ukraine have surrendered en masse or sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting, a senior Pentagon official said on Tuesday.

Some entire Russian units have laid down their arms without a fight after confronting surprisingly stiff Ukrainian defense, the official said. A significant number of the Russian troops are young conscripts who are poorly trained and ill-prepared for the all-out assault. And in some cases, Russian troops have deliberately punched holes in their vehicles’ gas tanks, presumably to avoid combat, the official said.

The Pentagon official declined to say how the military made these assessments — presumably a mosaic of intelligence including statements from captured Russian soldiers and communications intercepts — or how widespread these setbacks may be across the sprawling battlefield.

But taken together, these factors may help explain why Russian forces, including an ominous 40-mile convoy of tanks and armored vehicles near Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, have come to a near crawl in the past day or two, U.S. officials said.

Seems eminently plausible that a decent chunk of the Russian army does not want to fight this war. I hope Ukraine is able to capitalize on this somehow, maybe letting Russian troops who surrender or defect know that nothing will happen to them.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/0...n-official-says

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Pookah posted:

I didn't want to bring up the absolute loopers in the North. They represent hardly anyone and are crazy weirdos to the average person.

Don't worry, it's something we endure up here to make sure you have a better future than us. :respek:

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

punk rebel ecks posted:

It’s a single poll but this scares me. Talking with “normies” they really don’t understand how terrible a war with Russia would be. They aren’t some third world “backwater” like Afghanistan.

And every other polling company massively underestimated Trump’s election performance.

Why are you taking a Rasmussen Poll seriously?

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
"Normies" don't decide foreign policy, especially not in "detail" such as "let's start a war now"

1st_Panzer_Div.
May 11, 2005
Grimey Drawer
I appreciate the good faith responses.

Calibanibal posted:

Ha! I get it. Russia, bear.

I have found myself suddenly using the phrase bear responsibility a lot more. It's silly, but I think it's good evidence that even when trying to actively disregard it, propaganda has impacts.

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

i think the argument here is that people don't really feel a desire to defend their homes from attack unless they are compelled to do so by nationalist propaganda, otherwise people would practice nonviolent resistance and permit themselves to be invaded on the basis that it is the least direct risk to themselves. further, the argument seems to be that zelensky and the government of ukraine are committing unethical acts by putting up a defense against invasion when the inevitable consequence is defeat, thus causing more death than would be incurred with a simple total surrender to the russian federation

i dont think this argument matches to observable human behavior, but i do think that is what the argument is supposed to be

Thank you for this response and I respect your disagreement. Given how important propaganda has been to warring nations for a very long time and how important it is to getting your people energized to fight, I do think it is moving people that wouldn't normally fight to do so. Stories like the ghost of kviv do inspire Ukrainians to pick up arms.

There are hordes of refugees, people hiding in 'safe' zones, which I think shows that a large portion do not want to be part of any war.

Man Plan Canal posted:

Dead Russian soldiers?

I'm against war and promoting dead [insert] soldiers on the internet does matter, even if it's a tiny, tiny, tiny impact. Ultimately this is not a war of Putin vs Zelensky, wars are fight by many individuals with many different stories and many Russians are not invading by choice. I'll grant the blood thirsty ones could be lumped in the nazi category of gently caress 'em - though as an outsider I think the best thing we can do is not give them an online audience to spread hate.

Brownieftw
Nov 23, 2011

Fluff master

mustard_tiger posted:

Didn't it take the US and coalition a month to capture Baghdad? I don't think we can call the Ukrainian defense a success yet. They definitely are holding their own so far and have won the media war also.

I personally don't think russia's wallets are going to hold out that long in a prolonged fight like this. Something is going to have to happen to end it sooner rather than later, probably.

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



Kavros posted:

The most interesting thing about the Ghost story is that it turns out that the Russian military was in such absolute operational shambles at the onset that you could have had a situation in which a single available jet was out popping a string of russian air resources whose pilots were unknowingly stretched out in very hostile territory without any real support or coordination.

How is something that is made up and did not occur evidence that this is a situation that could have happened?

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

I'm baffled by people who are seemingly offended by the Ghost of Kyiv proganda campaign and seem intent to prove and convice others that it's propanda. It's a loving legend, what don't you get?

DandyLion
Jun 24, 2010
disrespectul Deciever

Brownieftw posted:

I personally don't think russia's wallets are going to hold out that long in a prolonged fight like this. Something is going to have to happen to end it sooner rather than later, probably.

Hard to really tell. The older generations already entrenched in propaganda likely have either fond memories of shoe leather buffets or are indoctrinated enough to know that any hardships are directly due to American perfidy and thus worth suffering for the good of the motherland.

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

Thank you for this response and I respect your disagreement. Given how important propaganda has been to warring nations for a very long time and how important it is to getting your people energized to fight, I do think it is moving people that wouldn't normally fight to do so. Stories like the ghost of kviv do inspire Ukrainians to pick up arms.

There are hordes of refugees, people hiding in 'safe' zones, which I think shows that a large portion do not want to be part of any war.

yes, the bulk of the refugees are not willing nor capable of fighting, nor should anyone expect them to. the problem is in assuming that the capable, trained reservist citizens of ukraine - men and women alike - who are taking up arms to defend themselves are only doing so because they've been fooled or brainwashed by propaganda. i think this is an overly ideological way of looking at human behavior in a vacuum, one which attempts to reconcile the disagreement between how people should behave versus how they are actually behaving. it dismisses the human tendency to defend their communities with violence if necessary. if a right wing militia started kicking over trash cans in your neighborhood and threatening people at gunpoint, would you simply do nothing?

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

biglads posted:

I am pleased that watching YouTube videos from Life of Boris etc. has helped me in understanding some of the videos posted on twitter. I don't speak any Ukranian or Russian, but around 1/3rd of the words are "cyka", "blyat" and something sounding like "Rooski" that I can pick up the general vibe. I even think I heard a "pizdec" in the video with the out of date ration packs.

Some important educational material for you:
https://www.slavadoesamerica.com/not-to-be-penis-like-explaining-the-brilliance-and-insanity-of-the-russian-language/

Woolie Wool
Jun 2, 2006


Arsenic Lupin posted:

If the US, using American pilots flying American planes, makes an assault on Russian troops, that is an act of war. Physically practical and politically practical are different axes.

He's speaking about "UA" which is Ukraine.

Blitz of 404 Error
Sep 19, 2007

Joe Biden is a top 15 president

Randarkman posted:

I'm baffled by people who are seemingly offended by the Ghost of Kyiv proganda campaign and seem intent to prove and convice others that it's propanda. It's a loving legend, what don't you get?

I don't understand why Ukraine hasn't fleshed it out more tbh, no back story, no name, nothin. Just pick one of your pilots that has a confirmed kill and say "btw you're the ghost now for all intents"

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Brownieftw posted:

I personally don't think russia's wallets are going to hold out that long in a prolonged fight like this. Something is going to have to happen to end it sooner rather than later, probably.

Given the surprising number of capitalist entities just that totally withdrawing from the Russian market today: Apple, Disney, Nike, Visa, etc. regular Russians aren’t going to have anything left to buy.

Also, lol… Russian soldiers purposefully disabling their equipment and surrendering.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1498723823159554048?s=21

This and the, “we aren’t at war, poo poo let’s shut down every non-state media television and radio station in the country for war censorship…”

I think something might be beginning to smell on Putin’s pants.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Randarkman posted:

I'm baffled by people who are seemingly offended by the Ghost of Kyiv proganda campaign and seem intent to prove and convice others that it's propanda. It's a loving legend, what don't you get?

That's fine, but it gets a bit weird when people try to do actual analysis off of it.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Randarkman posted:

I'm baffled by people who are seemingly offended by the Ghost of Kyiv proganda campaign and seem intent to prove and convice others that it's propanda. It's a loving legend, what don't you get?

Trying to be truthful isn't always necessary for the folks who are on ground, as it were, but going "so yeah it's all lies, but that can be good!" is weird. Is "we shouldn't lie to people" now baffling.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Ciprian Maricon posted:

They are as effective over water as over land. The least obstructions and obstacles like trees, wires, etc the better. Urban is probably the least forgiving environment for their use.

Edit: Source
https://twitter.com/Navyfi/status/1135543905968119808?s=20&t=VnduaP05jFFtWkdACJF9Dw

Spike is not the same as Javelin, but either way it should work technically. What wouldn't work is a SACLOS type ATGM like TOW or Konkurs, as the missiles carry a recognition beacon that the control unit follows to stay on track of the missile's position. And water surface reflects that light.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Kavros posted:

I will never forget the unintended surrealism of this war. It's like Russia took all of the worst lessons of Rumsfeld-style tactical and messaging agitprop myopia ('we will be greeted as liberators,' wmd's, etc), took only the most laughable portions of them, slammed them into a blender, then vomited them up as rationale, all while eating poo poo on the ground and handing every messaging and imaging victory to Ukraine.

Alternate response: the attack on the holocaust memorial is them getting revenge for the incident where they fired upon but were ultimately forced to retreat from the unmanned vehicle park memorial

:laffo:

the popes toes posted:

Give me more Buryats! isn't going to improve their situation much and is disgusting really, if he believes Eastern District losses are more palatable to the man on the street and might avoid outrage.

I think the idea is that Buryats will be more ready to shoot Ukrainians.

JerikTelorian posted:

Given their logistics issues, is that actually going to make things better?

In HoI4 when the supply turns red in a zone I usually move units out, not in.

Belarus troops may be opening their own front, in which case that doesn’t affect the situation. They also are quite bad, I think, so they may get their asses handed to them by western Ukrainian defence forces. Don’t even get me started on the population consensus there.

Eastern District guys? For now we know they’re being repositioned closer to Urals, so it’s early to speculate when and where they could materially impact the situation.

DandyLion
Jun 24, 2010
disrespectul Deciever

Blitz of 404 Error posted:

I don't understand why Ukraine hasn't fleshed it out more tbh, no back story, no name, nothin. Just pick one of your pilots that has a confirmed kill and say "btw you're the ghost now for all intents"

Because until they name the pilot, the Ghost of Kiev will be the last Ukrainian fighter jet in the sky.

canepazzo
May 29, 2006



Blitz of 404 Error posted:

I don't understand why Ukraine hasn't fleshed it out more tbh, no back story, no name, nothin. Just pick one of your pilots that has a confirmed kill and say "btw you're the ghost now for all intents"

That's the thing, not even the UA air force knows who the Ghost is. They just appeared one day, took over a jet, and shot down a million MIGs.

thunderspanks
Nov 5, 2003

crucify this


Blitz of 404 Error posted:

I don't understand why Ukraine hasn't fleshed it out more tbh, no back story, no name, nothin. Just pick one of your pilots that has a confirmed kill and say "btw you're the ghost now for all intents"

Terrible idea at the moment. The anonymity makes any kills attributable, and as soon as a person is 'named' then there is a giant target on them. Not to mention the counter propaganda of them getting injured or killed.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


mustard_tiger posted:

Didn't it take the US and coalition a month to capture Baghdad? I don't think we can call the Ukrainian defense a success yet. They definitely are holding their own so far and have won the media war also.

Tbh while I agree that we can't call the defense a success yet on the first point there's some big differences with this invasion.

Mainly one, the distances were a lot larger (Baghdad is something like five times the distance from Kuwait as Kyiv is from the Belarusian border), the Americans were a hell of a lot more meticulous at securing their supply lines and advance, and probably even more critically, they were invading a country on the other side of the world not one next door where all their military bases are and can easily bring all their power to bear.

This is sort of like if the US invaded Mexico and was currently stuck half way to Monterey.

Vookatos
May 2, 2013
Some folks asked what Russian citizens think about this whole situation, so here are my two cents:
I definitely hear a lot of talk out on the streets from random people about it, and none of it is positive. Of course, it could just be the vocal minority, but it warms my heart that two grannies today were loudly discussing how much our government sucks. I'd expect young people to be more informed, wonder where they even got the info.

My close friends, family, and an LGBT chat I frequent are against it, but some of my husband's colleagues are insistent on it all being not a big deal, even calling Putin a genius.

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Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



Nenonen posted:

Spike is not the same as Javelin, but either way it should work technically. What wouldn't work is a SACLOS type ATGM like TOW or Konkurs, as the missiles carry a recognition beacon that the control unit follows to stay on track of the missile's position. And water surface reflects that light.

Yes absolutely, good catch, I should have made it clear that was a demonstrative example of the idea being the same not the same actual weapon system. JAVELINS, NLAWs, etc. will work over water.

Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Mar 1, 2022

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